Battery and Energy Storage Industry - Electric vehicle sales performed well, with December 2024 retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reaching 1.302 million units, a year-on-year increase of 37.5% and a month-on-month increase of 2.6% [9] - The total retail sales of new energy vehicles from January to December 2024 reached 10.899 million units, a year-on-year increase of 40.7% [9] - The supply side of the industry is undergoing orderly adjustments, with prices stabilizing: lithium carbonate prices are fluctuating, lithium iron phosphate prices are at the breakeven point, graphite anode prices are near cost levels, and separator and electrolyte demand remains stable [9] - The domestic energy storage market completed 59.24GW/191.26GWh of procurement in 2024, with lithium iron phosphate accounting for nearly 95% of the demand [11] - The average price of 2-hour energy storage systems in 2024 was 0.628 yuan/Wh, a 43% decrease from 2023, while the average price of 2-hour energy storage EPC was 1.181 yuan/Wh, with significant fluctuations throughout the year [11] Banking Industry - The positive effects of debt resolution and real estate policies are evident, with financial data continuing to improve [15] - In December 2024, government bond issuance reached a new high of 1.76 trillion yuan, significantly driving social financing [16] - Corporate loans remained weak, with medium and long-term loans underperforming, while household loans improved, adding 350 billion yuan in December 2024 [16] - Non-financial corporate deposits increased by 1.81 trillion yuan, driven by the acceleration of government debt resolution funds, which also contributed to the improvement in M1 growth [17] - Fiscal-driven policies and easing retail pressures are expected to support further upward repair of social financing and M2, with the fiscal front-loading likely to result in a low-high-low pattern for social financing throughout the year [17] A-Share Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose sharply, closing at 3240 points, up 2.54%, with the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also rising significantly [23] - The internet e-commerce sector led the gains, rising 7.45%, followed by automation equipment, software development, and cultural media sectors [25] - The cultural media sector surged 6.8%, with significant net inflows of large single funds exceeding 2 billion yuan, indicating strong technical recovery and potential for further upward momentum [25] - The market sentiment was highly positive, with 99% of stocks closing higher and 242 stocks rising more than 9% [24]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with a significant year-on-year increase in charging volume [1] - The company's "Intelligent Manufacturing + Integrated Services" segment performed exceptionally well, with cumulative bidding and contract amounts exceeding 13 billion yuan in 2024 [4] - The company's electric vehicle charging network segment remains a leader, with over 700,000 public charging terminals operated by the end of 2024, including over 420,000 DC charging terminals, and cumulative charging volume exceeding 39 billion kWh [4] - The company's 2024 full-year charging volume exceeded 13 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of over 40%, maintaining its leading position in the industry [4] - The company has deployed over 700 integrated charging stations for photovoltaic storage and charging, covering more than 140 cities [4] Financial Performance - The company's 2024 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between 835 million yuan and 933 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70% to 90% [4] - The company's 2024 non-GAAP net profit is expected to be between 695 million yuan and 793 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72% to 97% [4] - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 14,601.77 million yuan in 2023 to 29,816.11 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.21% [2] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 491.15 million yuan in 2023 to 1,591.72 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 24.51% [2] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 24% from 2023 to 2026 [2] Valuation and Forecast - The company's EPS is expected to increase from 0.47 yuan in 2023 to 1.51 yuan in 2026 [2] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 46.56x in 2023 to 14.37x in 2026 [2] - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 7.34% in 2023 to 15.10% in 2026 [2] - The company's PB ratio is expected to decrease from 3.42x in 2023 to 2.17x in 2026 [5] Market Performance - The company's stock price reached a 12-month high of 25.90 yuan and a low of 15.10 yuan [3] - The company's stock price outperformed the CSI 300 index by 40% over the past year [3] Investment Recommendation - The company's performance forecast has been revised upward, with expected net profit attributable to the parent company of 908 million yuan, 1,278 million yuan, and 1,592 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The company's EPS is expected to be 0.86 yuan, 1.21 yuan, and 1.51 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 25x, 18x, and 14x [4] - The "Buy" rating is maintained based on the company's strong performance and leading position in the industry [4]

Key Points on Export and Import Data - In December 2024, China's export scale reached a historical second-highest level at $335.6 billion, driven by the "rush to export" effect ahead of potential Trump tariff policies [8][9] - The export growth rate in December increased by 4 percentage points compared to November, reaching a year-high of 7.6% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the 5-year average of 4.77% [9] - Exports to the US, ASEAN, and the EU showed notable growth, with year-on-year increases of 15.59%, 18.94%, and 8.76% respectively, while exports to Japan declined by 10.58 percentage points [10] - Imports in December 2024 reached $230.79 billion, the highest since October 2022, but the annual import growth rate remained low at 1.1%, indicating weak domestic demand [11] Key Points on Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector underperformed last week, with a decline of 3.46%, ranking 29th among 31 Shenwan primary sectors [14] - Leading liquor companies are focusing on stabilizing prices and balancing supply and demand, with Wuliangye suspending supply of its 8th generation product to stabilize prices [15] - The beer industry is expected to see marginal demand improvement in 2025, with Qingdao Beer highlighted as a key player in the high-end market [16] - The snack industry is benefiting from diversified channels, with strong growth expected during the Spring Festival season [17] Key Points on A-Share Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.24% to 3160 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index showed slight gains [30] - The oil and gas extraction sector led gains, rising by 3.41%, with significant capital inflows of over 212 million yuan [32] - Energy metals, precious metals, and industrial metals were among the top-performing sectors, while internet e-commerce and small home appliances underperformed [31][33] Key Points on Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3160.76 points, down 0.25%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.36% to 1982.46 points [36] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1% to 18874.14 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.86% to 42297.12 points [36] - In the commodity market, WTI crude oil rose by 0.95% to $77.30 per barrel, while LME copper increased by 0.23% to $9094 per ton [36]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "标配" (Standard Allocation) [1] Core Views - The social financing (社融) and M2 data for December 2024 continued to improve since October, reflecting the positive effects of debt resolution and real estate support policies [6] - Government bond issuance further strengthened, household loans continued to improve, while corporate medium and long-term loans remained weak, with strong performance in bill and bond financing [6] - The fiscal-driven and real estate market pressure relief are expected to support further upward recovery in social financing and M2 [6] - The fiscal front-loading may lead to a pattern of low social financing at the beginning and end of the year, with a high in the middle [6] - The deposit cycle has the potential for further improvement under the influence of positive consumption and real estate policies, which will have a positive impact on M1 [6] Key Data and Trends - Social financing RMB loans increased by approximately 840 billion yuan, with corporate loans adding 490 billion yuan, significantly lower than the same period last year [6] - Household loans increased by 350 billion yuan, continuing the improvement trend since October [6] - Government bonds reached a new high with an addition of 1.76 trillion yuan in December, significantly contributing to social financing [6] - Non-financial corporate deposits increased by 1.81 trillion yuan, driving further improvement in M1 growth [6] - Non-bank deposits decreased by 3.17 trillion yuan due to the impact of self-regulatory organizations' pricing management on interbank deposits [6] Investment Focus - Attention should be paid to the investment mainline of stable dividends and recovery potential [6] - The bank sector's dividend yield advantage has reappeared as treasury bond yields have significantly declined since December 2024 [6] - The high-dividend trend may cool down after a rapid rise, but the macro policy space still holds potential for imagination [6] - The recovery logic is dominant, and it is recommended to increase attention to small and medium-sized banks [6] Related Research - The report references several related studies on the banking industry, including the effects of policy, deposit and loan interest rate reductions, and asset quality concerns [3][4]

Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Standard Allocation" rating to the industry [1] Core Views - The photovoltaic (PV) sector shows signs of upstream industry self-discipline, with weak demand during the off-season leading to declining module prices [3][4] - The wind power sector is expected to see a significant increase in new installations in 2024, with a focus on offshore wind construction progress in 2025 [6][8] Photovoltaic Sector - **Silicon Material**: Prices have risen due to industry self-discipline and production cuts. In December 2024, China's polysilicon production was 103,800 tons, a 22.10% month-on-month decrease. January 2025 output is expected to be around 98,000 tons, a 5% decrease from December [4][17] - **Silicon Wafers**: Prices have increased due to supply shortages, especially for G10L and G12 series wafers. January 2025 production is expected to remain at 46GW [4][18] - **Battery Cells**: Prices have risen due to increased silicon wafer prices. Inventory levels are healthy, with leading manufacturers holding low stock [4][18] - **Modules**: Prices have declined due to weak market demand. Production is expected to decrease further in January 2025 [4][19] - **Key Company to Watch**: Flat Glass Group (福莱特) benefits from cost advantages due to scale, self-supply of quartz sand, and overseas capacity layout [5][20] Wind Power Sector - **Onshore Wind**: As of January 10, 2025, onshore wind turbine bidding was approximately 721.1MW, with an average winning bid price of 1,297 yuan/kW without towers. The price war for wind turbines has largely ended, with prices stabilizing [6][21] - **Offshore Wind**: In 2024, onshore wind turbine bidding reached 165.88GW, and offshore wind turbine bidding reached 12.05GW. The National Energy Bureau reported 51.75GW of new wind power installations from January to November 2024. The "China Wind Energy Spring Tea Party" in January 2025 indicated that new grid-connected wind power installations in 2024 were approximately 88GW, with 2025 expected to reach 105-115GW [6][21] - **Key Companies to Watch**: - Dajin Heavy Industry (大金重工) is a leader in offshore equipment, with stable overseas revenue and plans to expand its global market share [8][25] - Orient Cable (东方电缆) is a leading submarine cable manufacturer with advanced technology and extensive project delivery experience [8][25] Market Performance - The PV equipment sector fell by 2.60% during the week of January 6-10, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 by 1.47 percentage points. The wind power equipment sector rose by 0.59%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.72 percentage points [3][29] - Top gainers in the PV sector were Tongling股份, ST中利, and Shangneng Electric. Top gainers in the wind power sector were Hope Electric, Zhenjiang股份, and Orient Cable [3][29] Industry Data Tracking - **PV Industry Prices**: - Silicon material prices rose, with polysilicon dense material averaging 40 yuan/kg, up 12.68% week-on-week [72] - Silicon wafer prices remained stable, with G12 wafers at 1.63 yuan/piece and M10 wafers at 1.08 yuan/piece [72] - Battery cell prices increased, with PERC 182mm cells at 0.3 yuan/W, up 9.09% week-on-week [72] - Module prices declined, with double-sided PERC 182mm modules at 0.65 yuan/W, down 4.41% week-on-week [72] - **Wind Power Industry Prices**: - Epoxy resin prices were 13,866.67 yuan/ton, down 1.42% week-on-week [82] - Medium and heavy plate prices were 3,262 yuan/ton, down 2.97% week-on-week [82] - Copper prices were 75,443.33 yuan/ton, up 2.97% week-on-week [82]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it highlights key companies to watch, indicating a positive outlook for certain players in the battery and energy storage sectors [5][7]. Core Insights - The battery sector is experiencing a favorable market environment with significant growth in electric vehicle sales, projecting a 20%+ year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle sales for 2025, reaching 15 million units [4][16]. - The energy storage market is expected to remain robust, with a total of 59.24 GW/191.26 GWh of energy storage procurement completed in 2024, primarily driven by lithium iron phosphate technology [6][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Highlights - **Battery Sector**: - December saw retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reach 1.302 million units, a year-on-year increase of 37.5% and a month-on-month increase of 2.6% [4][16]. - The supply side is adjusting orderly, with stable prices for lithium salts and other materials, although some materials are still experiencing price fluctuations [17][18]. - **Energy Storage Sector**: - Nine new bidding projects and ten winning projects were reported, with a total scale of 3.14 GW/34.79 GWh for energy storage projects [6][19]. - The average price for a 2-hour energy storage system is projected to be 0.628 yuan/Wh, a 43% decrease from 2023 [20][48]. 2. Market Review - The battery sector overall declined by 2.27% in the week of January 6-12, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.14 percentage points [25][26]. - Major inflows were seen in companies like CATL and Hezhong Electric, while outflows were noted in companies such as Xiongtao and Sunshine Power [27][28]. 3. Industry Data Tracking - **Lithium Battery Supply Chain**: - Prices for industrial-grade lithium carbonate and battery-grade lithium carbonate were reported at 72,100 yuan/ton and 76,200 yuan/ton respectively, with slight weekly declines [29][30]. - The average price for lithium iron phosphate was reported at 33,700 yuan/ton, reflecting ongoing market adjustments [29][30]. - **Energy Storage Projects**: - The average winning bid for energy storage EPC projects was approximately 1.46 yuan/Wh, indicating a 9.8% decrease from previous bids [48][54].

Export Data Highlights - In December 2024, exports reached $335.6 billion, marking the second highest monthly export value in history, just below December 2021's $339.7 billion[3] - Year-on-year export growth for December was 10.7%, up from 6.7% in November, indicating a rebound in export momentum[3] - The trade surplus for December hit a record high of $104.84 billion, driven by strong export performance amid relatively low import growth[3] Import Data Insights - December imports totaled $230.79 billion, reflecting a 1.0% year-on-year increase, a recovery from a decline of 3.9% in November[3] - Despite the increase, the overall import growth for 2024 was only 1.1%, suggesting persistent weakness in domestic demand[3] - Key imports showing positive trends included aircraft, data processing equipment, and rubber, indicating some recovery in specific sectors[3] Market Trends and Risks - The "export rush" phenomenon is expected to continue in the short term, influenced by the impending implementation of Trump's tariff policies[3] - External demand remains resilient, with the US and ASEAN showing notable increases in export growth, while Japan's exports declined significantly[3] - Potential risks include international geopolitical tensions and domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations[3]

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年01月13日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250113 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Report] ➢ 1. 下游或需求复苏，看好利润空间修复——原油及聚酯产业链月报（2025年1月） ➢ 2. 价格水平仍然较低，核心通胀相对略好——国内观察：2024 年12月通胀数据 ➢ 1.中国人民银行决定阶段性暂停在公开市场买入国债 ➢ 2.国新办介绍"营造公平公正市场环境，助力经济高质量发展"有关情况 ➢ 3.何立峰出席扩消费工作推进会指出，加大力度推动扩消费工作 ➢ 4.三部门：进一步扩大政府采购支持绿色建材，促进建筑品质提升政策实施范围的通知 ➢ 5.美国公布2024年12月非农就业、薪资增速和失业率数据 正文目录 | 1. 重点推荐 ………………………………………………… ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [61]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 3.46% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.33 percentage points, ranking 29th among 31 first-level sectors [11]. - The report highlights that major liquor companies are focusing on stabilizing supply and demand, with an emphasis on quality and price balance for 2025. The market is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand, particularly during the upcoming Spring Festival [4][11]. - The beer sector is anticipated to see marginal improvements in demand, with a focus on Qingdao Beer as a key player. The report suggests that the beer industry is undergoing a high-end transformation [4][11]. - The snack segment is experiencing rapid growth due to the diversification of sales channels, with expectations for strong sales during the Spring Festival [4][11]. - The dairy sector is benefiting from favorable policies and an improving supply-demand balance, with a recommendation to focus on companies that are upgrading their product structures [4][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Secondary Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance last week was a decline of 3.46%, with soft drinks showing a positive increase of 5.96% [11]. - Top-performing stocks included Qinghai Spring (+13.22%), Dongpeng Beverage (+12.40%), and others, while the worst performers included Jialong Co. (-22.86%) and Lianhua Health (-20.39%) [11]. 2. Major Consumer Goods and Raw Material Prices - Liquor prices showed slight fluctuations, with the price of Moutai increasing slightly to 2,220 yuan for scattered bottles, while the price for the original box remained stable at 2,240 yuan [23]. - Beer production in November reached 1.695 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, while wine production saw a significant decline of 33.3% [28]. - Dairy prices as of January 3, 2025, indicated a slight increase in milk and yogurt prices, while fresh milk prices showed a year-on-year decrease of 14.80% [32]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a 1% decline in the German brewing industry, with expectations for 2024 to mirror 2023's performance [57]. - China has become the third-largest beer supplier to Russia, with a 60% increase in exports to 29,800 tons in the first ten months of 2024 [57]. 4. Core Company Dynamics - Beimei announced a new employee stock ownership plan aiming to raise up to 25 million yuan [58]. - Jinhui Wine's major shareholder has increased its stake in the company, acquiring 50,200 shares for approximately 905,200 yuan [58].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [38]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant improvement in the performance of brokerage firms, with notable profit forecasts from Dongxing Securities and Guoyuan Securities, projecting increases of 77%-107% and 22% in net profit, respectively, driven by substantial growth in investment performance and asset management [4][12]. - The establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for predetermined interest rates is expected to enhance the value of the insurance sector by improving liability costs, with the current research value set at 2.34% [4][34]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing reforms in the capital market, which are anticipated to boost market activity and stability, thereby increasing the attractiveness of the capital market [4][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The non-bank financial index fell by 2.4%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 1.3 percentage points, with the brokerage and insurance indices also experiencing declines of 2.22% and 2.76%, respectively [4][12]. 2. Market Data Tracking - The average daily trading volume for stock funds was 13,505 billion, a decrease of 13.6% week-on-week. The margin financing balance was 1.82 trillion, down 1.1% from the previous week [4][22]. 3. Industry News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focusing on market-oriented reforms to enhance the capital market's investment and financing capabilities, with a commitment to deepening reforms and increasing market openness [34]. - A new notification was issued regarding the establishment of a mechanism linking predetermined interest rates to market rates, which is expected to guide companies in adjusting their insurance product pricing [34].