Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [35]. Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector has underperformed the market, with the Shenyin Wanguo Beauty and Personal Care Index declining by 2.73% this week, trailing the CSI 300 Index by 1.60 percentage points [16][17]. - Domestic brands are gaining traction, with local brands occupying 7 out of the top 20 positions in the 2024 All-Net Cosmetics Brand Ranking, showing a total GMV growth of 38.73% year-on-year [4][23]. - New product launches from international brands like L'Oréal and Estée Lauder are expected to drive innovation and consumer interest in the market [5][30]. Market Performance - The CSI 300 Index fell by 1.13%, while the Shenyin Wanguo Beauty and Personal Care Index dropped by 2.73%, ranking 22nd among all primary industries [16][17]. - The top five gainers in the sector this week were Jinbo Biological (+5.49%), Runben Co. (+5.32%), Lihua Kexin (+3.26%), Marubi Biological (+2.20%), and ST Meigu (+1.85%) [19]. - Conversely, the top five decliners included Furuida (-8.87%), Shuiyang Co. (-6.32%), Haoyue Care (-5.75%), Shanghai Jahwa (-5.31%), and Lafang Cosmetics (-4.66%) [19]. Industry News - The 2024 All-Net Cosmetics Brand Ranking revealed that L'Oréal remains the top brand on platforms like Taobao and JD, while Han Shu leads on Douyin [4][24]. - The introduction of innovative products such as L'Oréal's Cell BioPrint and Estée Lauder's 6D Black Diamond Eye Cream highlights the ongoing trend of personalization in beauty technology [5][30][29]. Data Tracking - In November 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,763 billion yuan, with cosmetic retail sales declining by 26.4% year-on-year due to the timing of promotional events [31]. - Cumulative cosmetic retail sales from January to November 2024 showed a year-on-year decline of 1.3% [31].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Standard Allocation" [1] Core Insights - The 2025 vehicle replacement policy has officially launched with increased subsidy levels, expanding the scope of eligible vehicles for subsidies, which is expected to support continued strong sales in the automotive market [5][12][56] - The retail sales of passenger vehicles in December 2024 reached 2.635 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12%, indicating a sustained high demand in the market [5][13] - The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles exceeded 1.5 million units in December 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 36%, highlighting the rapid growth of plug-in hybrid models [5][14] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The 2025 vehicle replacement policy includes increased subsidies for various vehicle types, with the maximum subsidy for new energy passenger vehicles set at 15,000 yuan and for fuel vehicles at 13,000 yuan [5][12] - In 2024, over 2.9 million vehicles were scrapped and over 3.7 million were replaced, indicating a robust market for vehicle upgrades [5][12] Market Performance - The automotive sector saw a 1.31% increase this week, ranking 6th among 31 industries, while the broader market (CSI 300) fell by 1.13% [5][16] - The performance of sub-sectors varied, with passenger vehicles down by 2.45%, while commercial passenger vehicles increased by 5.27% [5][16] Industry Data Tracking - December 2024 saw passenger vehicle retail sales of 2.635 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 12%, and wholesale sales of 3.075 million units, also up 12% [5][30] - New energy vehicle retail sales reached 1.302 million units in December, a 38% increase year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 49.4% [5][32] Company Announcements - Companies like Jifeng Group and Top Group are expanding their market presence through new projects and acquisitions, indicating a strategic focus on growth in the automotive supply chain [5][54] Industry Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued new policies to support the automotive industry, including expanded subsidies for vehicle replacements [5][56] - Collaborative efforts between companies like XPeng and Volkswagen aim to create a comprehensive fast-charging network, enhancing infrastructure for electric vehicles [5][56]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronics sector, particularly focusing on AI-related investments and the recovery of semiconductor demand [5][6]. Core Insights - NVIDIA has launched the RTX 50 series GPUs, which include significant upgrades and support for AI applications, indicating a strong focus on the AI industry chain [5][6]. - TSMC reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, with a 33.9% year-on-year revenue growth for 2024, reflecting a recovery in global semiconductor demand [5][6]. - The electronics industry is currently experiencing a mild recovery, with recommendations to focus on four main investment themes: AIOT, AI-driven technologies, equipment materials, and consumer electronics [5][6]. Industry News - NVIDIA's RTX 50 series GPUs feature up to 920 billion transistors and AI computing power of 4000 TOPS, marking a significant advancement in GPU technology [14]. - Qualcomm introduced the Snapdragon X platform aimed at the $600 AI PC market, enhancing the accessibility of AI technologies [14]. - TSMC's December revenue reached approximately NT$278.16 billion, a 57.8% year-on-year increase, showcasing strong demand for semiconductors [15]. - Micron Technology has begun construction on a $7 billion HBM packaging facility in Singapore to meet AI demand [15]. - The Semiconductor Industry Association reported a 20.7% year-on-year increase in global semiconductor sales for November 2024 [19]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the electronics sector outperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan Electronics Index rising by 1.86% while the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.13% [26][27]. - As of January 10, 2025, the semiconductor sub-sector saw a 3.34% increase, while consumer electronics declined by 1.23% [27][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following sectors: 1. AIOT, with companies like Lexin Technology and Rockchip [5]. 2. AI innovation-driven sectors, including computing chips and optical devices [5]. 3. Domestic semiconductor equipment and materials, highlighting companies like Huate Gas and North Huachuang [5]. 4. Consumer electronics, with potential rebounds in companies like Weir Shares and Geke Micro [5].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the price level remains low, with core inflation showing slight improvement, as indicated by the December 2024 inflation data, where the CPI year-on-year was 0.1% and the PPI year-on-year was -2.3% [7][8] - The report notes that excavator sales reached 200,000 units in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.13%, driven by demand from large hydropower projects and infrastructure investments [13][15] - The report emphasizes that the domestic construction machinery market is supported by government policies promoting the replacement of old equipment, which has stimulated demand for new excavators [15][17] Group 2 - The report mentions that in December 2024, excavator sales in China were 19,369 units, a year-on-year increase of 16%, with domestic sales growing by 22.1% [13][15] - The report indicates that the sales of loaders in December 2024 were 9,410 units, a slight decrease of 0.08% year-on-year, while exports increased by 28.5% [14][16] - The report highlights the approval of large hydropower projects, which is expected to significantly boost domestic engineering machinery demand, with total infrastructure investment projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan [16][17]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The air conditioning long-term contract orders have landed, boosting refrigerants in the fluorochemical industry. The prices of refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a increased by 7.50%, 10.53%, and 8.97% respectively compared to the end of November 2024, with R22 rising by 3.13% [8][9] - The cash ex-factory prices for long-term contracts of major air conditioning manufacturers in Q1 2025 are expected to rise, with R32 at 39,800 yuan/ton (up 6.13%) and R410 at 40,800 yuan/ton (up 11.78%). The refrigerant market is likely to maintain a positive trend in the short term [9][10] - The demand for refrigerants remains strong, supported by high production levels of household air conditioners and refrigerators, with production expected to increase significantly in February 2025 [9][10] Group 2: Investment Suggestions - The reduction of second-generation refrigerant quotas and the maintenance of third-generation refrigerant production quotas at baseline levels indicate a tightening supply-demand relationship. The profitability of leading refrigerant production companies is expected to improve significantly [10] - It is recommended to focus on leading companies in the refrigerant industry and those with a complete industrial chain, such as Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., and Jinshi Resources [10] Group 3: Non-Banking Financial Industry Insights - The non-banking index fell by 9.9%, with brokerages and insurance indices dropping by 11.33% and 6.37% respectively. The market data showed a decrease in average daily trading volume and margin financing balance [11][12] - Recent measures by the central bank, including the expansion of swap operations and adjustments to stock repurchase policies, are expected to improve market liquidity and investor sentiment [13][14] Group 4: Economic Policies and Market Data - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice to support large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of consumer goods, which is expected to boost investment in related sectors [17][18] - The market performance on January 8, 2025, showed a slight increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices declined. The overall market sentiment remains cautious with mixed signals [24][26]

Inflation Data Summary - In December 2024, the CPI year-on-year increased by 0.1%, down from 0.2% in the previous month, while the month-on-month change was 0.0%, compared to -0.6% previously[3] - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.3%, an improvement from the previous decline of 2.5%, with a month-on-month change of -0.1%, slightly better than the previous 0.0%[3] Core Inflation Insights - Core CPI remained stable with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year rise to 0.4%, marking three consecutive months of growth[3] - Service prices shifted from decline to increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase to 0.5%, likely driven by increased travel demand during the New Year holiday[3] Food Price Dynamics - Food CPI fell by 0.6% month-on-month, continuing a three-month decline, which is below the five-year average of 0.64%[3] - Fresh vegetables and fruits saw month-on-month declines of 2.4% and 1.0%, respectively, influenced by weather conditions and supply recovery[3] Consumer Goods and PPI Trends - Consumer goods prices decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, reflecting insufficient domestic demand, with alcoholic beverages also showing a decline[3] - PPI performance was slightly better than seasonal trends, with a month-on-month change of -0.1%, compared to a five-year average of -0.2%[3] Structural Analysis of PPI - Production materials remained stable month-on-month, while living materials decreased by 0.1%, with durable goods being the main drag[3] - The overall trend of PPI recovery requires additional policy support to sustain growth[3]

Group 1 - The report highlights that Changan Automobile (000625) achieved a wholesale sales volume of 250,700 vehicles in December 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.55% and a month-on-month decrease of 9.60% [9] - For the entire year of 2024, Changan's cumulative wholesale sales reached 2.6838 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 14.79% [9] - The report indicates that the company's self-owned passenger vehicle sales in December were 150,500 units, with a year-on-year increase of 31.99% [10] Group 2 - The report states that Changan's new energy vehicle sales in December reached 91,300 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 53.83% [10] - The company is on track to meet its 2024 new energy vehicle sales target of approximately 750,000 units, achieving a completion rate of 97.95% [10] - The report outlines that Changan's total sales target for 2025 is set at 3 million vehicles, with a specific goal of 1 million new energy vehicles [11] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that Changan plans to launch 13 new energy products in 2025, including models equipped with Huawei's ADS 3.0 technology [11] - The company aims to enhance its global presence by focusing on five major projects, including the establishment of a factory in Thailand and entering the European market [11] - The report projects that Changan's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 will be 5.245 billion, 6.885 billion, and 9.662 billion yuan, respectively [12] Group 4 - The semiconductor industry report indicates that demand for semiconductors is recovering, particularly in AI-related applications, while supply remains ample [16] - The report notes that the semiconductor price decline is slowing, with certain segments showing signs of price recovery [18] - It highlights that the global semiconductor sales in October 2024 increased by 22.09% year-on-year, reflecting overall demand recovery [18] Group 5 - The report mentions that the demand for AI servers and new energy vehicles is driving semiconductor demand, with expectations for continued growth in these sectors [19] - It also points out that the AI-related applications are gaining traction, with significant advancements in AI models and edge applications [21] - The report suggests that investors should focus on leading companies in the AIOT sector and those benefiting from the domestic semiconductor supply chain [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the refrigerant industry, suggesting a high level of confidence in the market's future performance [6]. Core Insights - The prices of refrigerants have shown an upward trend, with R32, R125, and R134a prices increasing by 7.50%, 10.53%, and 8.97% respectively as of December 31, 2024 [6]. - The cash ex-factory prices for long-term contracts of major air conditioning manufacturers have increased, indicating a positive market sentiment and potential for continued price growth in refrigerants [6]. - Despite a decline in production of household air conditioners and refrigerators in January 2025, a significant rebound is expected in February, supporting strong demand for refrigerants [6]. - The supply-demand relationship for third-generation refrigerants remains tight, with expectations of sustained high profitability for related production companies [6]. Refrigerant Tracking - As of December 2024, the operating rates and production of R32, R134a, and R125 have decreased compared to previous months, indicating a potential adjustment in market dynamics [18]. - The total inventory of third-generation refrigerants has been on a downward trend since the beginning of 2024, suggesting a tightening supply [19]. - The price of second-generation refrigerant R22 has risen significantly, reaching 33,000 yuan/ton, which is a 69.23% increase year-on-year [22]. Fluoropolymer Insights - The prices of fluoropolymers such as PTFE, PVDF, and HFP have remained low due to rapid capacity increases and slowing demand growth [54]. - The production and operating rates of fluoropolymers have shown signs of recovery, with a notable increase in output in December 2024 [61]. - The apparent consumption of PTFE and PVDF has declined year-on-year, reflecting a broader trend of reduced demand in the market [66]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant industry and those with a well-established supply chain in fluorochemical production, such as Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd. [6][70].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年01月07日 标配 行 业 月 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -35% -27% -18% -9% 0% 8% 17% 23-08 23-11 24-02 24-05 申万行业指数:电子(0727) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1. 端侧AI眼镜持续催化，英伟达 B300设计调整将重新流片——电子 行业周报（2024/12/23-2024/12/29） 2. 字节豆包视觉理解模型发布，美 光科技数据中心业务增长强劲—— 电 子 行 业 周 报 （ 2024/12/16- 2024/12/22） 3.文生视频模型Sora正式发布， Android XR引领端侧AI变革浪潮— — 电子行业周报（ 20241209- 20241215） [Table_NewTitle] AI大模型和端侧应用持续落地，芯片价 格持续低迷或展示供给依然充裕 ——半导体行业 ...

Group 1: Deposit Situation Research - The report indicates that the positive effects of policies are gradually becoming evident, with deposit growth recovering despite pressures from corporate credit demand [8] - Since August, deposit growth has been on an upward trend due to the return of funds from wealth management products and a recovery in housing sales, leading to an increase in non-financial corporate deposits [8][9] - The report highlights that the self-regulatory management of interest rates is improving the transmission channels to the deposit market, with significant decreases in policy rates and benchmark rates [9][10] Group 2: Consumer Electronics and AI - The report discusses the implementation of subsidies for purchasing new consumer electronics, which is expected to boost market confidence and stimulate demand [13][14] - The upcoming CES 2025 is anticipated to showcase new AI-enabled products, including AI glasses and smart home devices, indicating a focus on AI-driven innovation in the electronics sector [15] - The electronic industry is currently experiencing a mild recovery, with recommendations to focus on sectors such as AIOT, AI-driven innovations, and the consumer electronics cycle [16][17]