证券研究报告：有色金属 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-07-08 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 8.84 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）46.52 | / 41.30 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）411 | / 365 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 9.62 / 6.17 | | 资产负债率(%) | 52.7% | | 市盈率 | 9.21 | | 第一大股东 | 石河子市锦隆能源产业 | | 链有限公司 | | 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 天山铝业(002532) 电解铝扩产落地，降本增效可期 l 公司拟扩产 20 万吨电解铝项目 根据公司第六届董事会第十五次会议决议，公司计划利用石河子 厂区东侧预留场地，采用国内先进的电解铝节能技术，对公司 140 万 吨电解铝产能进行绿色低碳能 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of deposit rate adjustments on banks, indicating that the adjustments have a limited impact on financial outflows [4][7] - The establishment of a market-oriented deposit rate adjustment mechanism aims to align deposit rates with market rates, thereby reducing banks' funding costs and facilitating lower loan rates [14][17] - The report highlights a significant shift in deposit structures due to regulatory changes, with a notable migration of deposits from large banks to smaller banks and non-bank financial institutions [6][37] Summary by Sections 1. Reasons for Deposit Rate Adjustments - The adjustments are aimed at promoting interest rate marketization and improving policy transmission, breaking the rigid link between deposit rates and benchmark rates [4][14] - The adjustments are expected to lower banks' funding costs, which constitute over 70% of their liabilities, thereby creating room for loan rate reductions [17][18] 2. Review of Past Adjustments - Historical adjustments include the reduction of structured deposits from CNY 15.4 trillion to zero between 2019 and 2020, and the optimization of deposit rate ceilings in June 2021 [5][22] - The establishment of a market-oriented adjustment mechanism in April 2022 has led to multiple rounds of deposit rate reductions, with long-term deposit rates decreasing more than short-term rates [23][24] 3. Market Impact Review - The report notes that during the initial adjustment phases, there was a significant outflow of structured deposits to wealth management and insurance products [6][37] - The adjustments have generally resulted in a shift of deposits from large banks to smaller banks, as well as a migration towards wealth management and insurance products [6][37] 4. Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates a significant volume of maturing fixed-term deposits in the third quarter, with potential outflows to non-bank institutions [7] - It suggests focusing on banks that may benefit from reduced funding costs and improved net interest margins, highlighting specific banks such as Bank of Communications and Chongqing Bank as potential investment targets [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][39] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector index increased by 2.55%, ranking 7th among 31 primary industries, with aquaculture and agricultural product processing leading the gains, while the animal vaccine sector declined [5][12][13] - The average price of live pigs as of July 6 is 14.73 CNY/kg, with a weekly increase of 0.38 CNY/kg, and there is market attention on whether prices can reach the 15 CNY/kg mark [6][17] - The white feather chicken sector is experiencing deep losses due to weak demand, with chick prices dropping to a near historical low of 1.10 CNY/chick and meat chicken prices falling by 8.82% to 3.10 CNY/kg [7][30] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector index rose by 2.55%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300, which increased by 1.40% and 1.54% respectively [12] - The aquaculture and agricultural product processing sectors showed significant gains, while the animal vaccine sector faced declines [13] Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Swine - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.64 kg, up 0.5 kg from the previous week, with a year-on-year increase of 2.33% [6][17] - The profitability for self-bred pigs is around 120 CNY per head, an increase of 69 CNY from the previous week, while the loss for purchased piglets decreased to 26 CNY per head [18][20] - The supply of pigs is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, leading to seasonal price fluctuations, with potential short-term rebounds in July and August [6][19] White Feather Chicken - The average loss per chick is approximately 1.5 CNY, with the average loss per meat chicken at 2.2 CNY due to high temperatures and rising feed costs [7][30] - The update of breeding stock is at 150.07 million sets, a year-on-year increase of 17.25%, but the uncertainty in imports due to avian influenza poses risks and opportunities for domestic breeding [30] Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices remained stable at 6110 CNY/ton, while soybean prices increased by 2.2% to 3899 CNY/ton [33][34] - Cotton prices rose by 1.36% to 15189 CNY/ton, and corn prices increased by 11 CNY/ton to 2392 CNY/ton [34][37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [5][11]. Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders exceeded expectations, with a projected growth of 40%-50% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, reaching between 10.62 billion to 11.37 billion yuan [3][4]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a net profit of 8.96 billion to 9.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37%-48% [3]. - The company is benefiting from operational reforms, with cost optimization achieved through digital procurement and management practices, leading to lower raw material prices and reduced energy and labor costs [4]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 155.73 billion, 164.27 billion, and 172.35 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.17%, 5.48%, and 4.92% respectively [5][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 14.84 billion, 17.95 billion, and 20.34 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 40.61%, 20.93%, and 13.31% respectively [5][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.53, 0.64, and 0.72 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 24, 20, and 18 times [5][7].

Group 1: Economic Policy and Trends - The central government is reinforcing "anti-involution" policies to address low nominal economic growth and persistent negative PPI, focusing on eliminating low-price competition and overcapacity[1] - The manufacturing sector's capacity utilization rate was 74.10% at the end of Q1 2025, significantly below the historical average of 7.1% since 2018[16] - The PPI growth rate for coal mining and washing, general equipment, specialized equipment, automotive, and pharmaceuticals is at historically low levels, indicating potential "involution" issues in these sectors[17] Group 2: Industry Impact and Investment Opportunities - Key industries identified for "anti-involution" measures include coal mining, chemical raw materials, non-metallic minerals, and automotive manufacturing, which are expected to undergo significant policy scrutiny[17] - Recent price recovery in coal, rebar, and polysilicon suggests that the market has priced in expectations of "anti-involution" policies, presenting potential investment opportunities if policies align with market expectations[28] - If "anti-involution" policies fall short, there is a risk of price corrections in these industries, necessitating caution for investors[28] Group 3: Risks and Economic Challenges - The report highlights external uncertainties, including global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, which could exacerbate economic challenges[4] - The need for coordinated demand expansion policies alongside supply-side reforms is emphasized to mitigate potential structural pain in industrial production and employment[27] - The real estate sector is undergoing significant adjustments, impacting overall investment momentum and economic growth prospects[27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The Central Financial Commission's sixth meeting emphasized promoting high-quality development of the marine economy, highlighting the need for top-level design, increased policy support, and encouraging social capital participation [12][15] - The military industry is expected to see an inflection point in orders as the "Centenary Goal of Building the Army" enters its second half, with new technologies and products representing new market directions that may contain greater elasticity [15] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the defense industry is 1618.51, with a 52-week high of 1712.48 and a low of 1113.62 [1] Market Performance - The military sector indices showed a weekly increase, with the China Securities Military Index rising by 1.47% and the Shenwan Military Index by 1.36% [16] - The top ten performing stocks in the military sector this week included Chengxi Aviation (+24.21%) and China Ship Emergency (+20.23%) [19] Investment Recommendations - Two main investment themes are suggested: 1) Aerospace and "gap-filling" new focuses, including companies like Feilihua, Fenghuo Electronics, and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft [15] 2) New technologies, products, and markets with greater elasticity, including Aerospace Intelligent Manufacturing and Guangdong Hongda [15] Valuation Levels - As of July 4, 2025, the China Securities Military Index stands at 11391.90, with a PE-TTM valuation of 112.79 and a PB valuation of 3.52 [21][22] Data Tracking - The report includes tracking of private placements and stock incentive data for various military companies, indicating significant fundraising and stock performance [25][27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company covers the entire Android tablet market with its platform chips, launching three new smart processors: A733, A537, and A333, targeting high-end, mid-range, and entry-level segments respectively. This positions the company well to meet diverse demands in the tablet market [4] - The company's AI technology is being widely adopted, with features such as facial recognition and gesture photography gaining recognition from numerous domestic and international tablet brands, establishing a solid foundation for commercial applications of AI [4] - The V821 AI glasses solution has been launched, meeting the demands for low power consumption and miniaturization, with impressive performance metrics [5] Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 29.0 billion, 35.1 billion, and 42.1 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 3.5 billion, 4.9 billion, and 6.7 billion yuan [6] - The company expects significant growth in revenue, with a growth rate of 36.76% for 2024, followed by 26.81%, 20.89%, and 20.14% in subsequent years [8] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.43 yuan, 0.60 yuan, and 0.81 yuan respectively, indicating a strong upward trend [10]

- Model Name: Diffusion Index Model; Model Construction Idea: The model is based on the principle of price momentum; Model Construction Process: The model tracks the weekly changes in the diffusion index of various industries, ranking them based on their diffusion index values. The formula used is $ \text{Diffusion Index} = \frac{\text{Number of Stocks with Positive Momentum}}{\text{Total Number of Stocks}} $; Model Evaluation: The model captures industry trends effectively but may face challenges during market reversals[5][27][28] - Model Name: GRU Factor Model; Model Construction Idea: The model utilizes GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) deep learning networks to analyze minute-level price and volume data; Model Construction Process: The model ranks industries based on their GRU factor values, which are derived from the GRU network's analysis of trading information. The formula used is $ \text{GRU Factor} = \text{GRU Network Output} $; Model Evaluation: The model performs well in short cycles but may struggle in long cycles or extreme market conditions[6][13][33] - Diffusion Index Model, IR value 2.05%, weekly average return 0.24%, monthly excess return -1.00%, annual excess return 2.05%[25][30] - GRU Factor Model, IR value -4.52%, weekly average return 1.32%, monthly excess return 0.77%, annual excess return -4.52%[32][37] - Factor Name: GRU Industry Factor; Factor Construction Idea: The factor is derived from GRU deep learning networks analyzing minute-level trading data; Factor Construction Process: The factor values are calculated based on the GRU network's output, ranking industries accordingly. The formula used is $ \text{GRU Factor} = \text{GRU Network Output} $; Factor Evaluation: The factor captures short-term trading information effectively but may face challenges in long-term or extreme market conditions[6][13][33] - GRU Industry Factor, IR value -4.52%, weekly average return 1.32%, monthly excess return 0.77%, annual excess return -4.52%[32][37]

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Diffusion Index Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model monitors the breadth of market movements and identifies turning points in stock price diffusion[5][38]. - **Model Construction Process**: The diffusion index is calculated based on the relative price movements of constituent stocks over a specific time window. For example, the current diffusion index value of 0.72 is derived from the relative price changes of stocks in the Wind Micro-Cap Index. The model uses thresholds to signal trading actions: - Left-side threshold method triggered a sell signal on May 8, 2025, at a value of 0.9850[43]. - Right-side threshold method triggered a sell signal on May 15, 2025, at a value of 0.8975[47]. - Dual moving average method triggered a buy signal on July 3, 2025[48]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies market turning points and provides actionable signals for trading strategies[39]. 2. Model Name: Small-Cap Low-Volatility 50 Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy selects stocks with small market capitalization and low volatility to construct a portfolio[16][35]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Select 50 stocks from the Wind Micro-Cap Index based on small market capitalization and low volatility. - Rebalance the portfolio bi-weekly. - Transaction costs are set at 0.3% for both sides. - Benchmark: Wind Micro-Cap Index (8841431.WI)[16][35]. - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates strong performance in 2025, with a year-to-date return of 56.90% and a weekly excess return of 0.04%[16][35]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Diffusion Index Model - Left-side threshold method: Sell signal at 0.9850 on May 8, 2025[43]. - Right-side threshold method: Sell signal at 0.8975 on May 15, 2025[47]. - Dual moving average method: Buy signal on July 3, 2025[48]. 2. Small-Cap Low-Volatility 50 Strategy - 2024 return: 7.07%, excess return: -2.93%[16][35]. - 2025 YTD return: 56.90%, weekly excess return: 0.04%[16][35]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: PB Inverse Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the inverse of the price-to-book ratio to identify undervalued stocks[4][33]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the inverse of the PB ratio for each stock in the Wind Micro-Cap Index. - Rank the stocks based on this value. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor shows strong performance with a weekly rank IC of 0.152, significantly above its historical average of 0.034[4][33]. 2. Factor Name: Illiquidity Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the illiquidity of stocks to identify those with higher potential returns[4][33]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Measure the average daily turnover over a specific period. - Rank stocks inversely based on their turnover values. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has a weekly rank IC of 0.107, outperforming its historical average of 0.039[4][33]. 3. Factor Name: Profitability Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Identifies stocks with strong profitability metrics[4][33]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Use metrics such as ROE or net profit margin to rank stocks. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has a weekly rank IC of 0.085, well above its historical average of 0.022[4][33]. 4. Factor Name: Momentum Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks the momentum of stock prices to identify trends[4][33]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the cumulative return over a specific period. - Rank stocks based on their momentum scores. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has a weekly rank IC of 0.069, improving from its historical average of -0.005[4][33]. 5. Factor Name: Leverage Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the financial leverage of companies to identify risk-adjusted opportunities[4][33]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the debt-to-equity ratio for each stock. - Rank stocks based on their leverage levels. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has a weekly rank IC of 0.064, outperforming its historical average of -0.005[4][33]. --- Factor Backtesting Results Top 5 Factors (Weekly Rank IC) 1. PB Inverse Factor: 0.152 (Historical Average: 0.034)[4][33]. 2. Illiquidity Factor: 0.107 (Historical Average: 0.039)[4][33]. 3. Profitability Factor: 0.085 (Historical Average: 0.022)[4][33]. 4. Momentum Factor: 0.069 (Historical Average: -0.005)[4][33]. 5. Leverage Factor: 0.064 (Historical Average: -0.005)[4][33]. Bottom 5 Factors (Weekly Rank IC) 1. Turnover Factor: -0.186 (Historical Average: -0.081)[4][33]. 2. Residual Volatility Factor: -0.154 (Historical Average: -0.040)[4][33]. 3. 10-Day Return Factor: -0.153 (Historical Average: -0.062)[4][33]. 4. 1-Year Volatility Factor: -0.153 (Historical Average: -0.033)[4][33]. 5. 10-Day Free Float Turnover Factor: -0.132 (Historical Average: -0.061)[4][33].

Employment Data - The unemployment rate in the U.S. unexpectedly decreased to 4.1% in June 2025, with 147,000 new non-farm jobs added, surpassing market expectations[9] - Nearly half of the new jobs were contributed by local governments, with 60,000 potentially affected by seasonal adjustments in the education sector[1] - The average wage growth in June was lower than expected, indicating a loosening labor market[1] Economic Outlook - The overall employment market appears weaker than suggested by the unemployment rate and job additions, with declining wage growth and PMI survey data[1] - Due to prior inventory replenishment effects and weakened demand, the impact of tariffs on inflation may be less significant than anticipated[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times in September, October, and December 2025[1] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected increases in goods prices due to tariffs, higher-than-expected tariff rates, significant energy price hikes from international conflicts, stricter immigration policies, and unexpected labor supply shortages in the U.S.[2]