债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 内外动能或进入"转换期" ——9 月经济数据解读 ❖ 9 月数据解读：投资弱化、消费放缓，生产强势再回归 1、月度 GDP：9 月工业生产强势回归，带动二产增速边际上行，9 月 GDP 约 为 5.0%左右。其中三产增速平稳，二产在工业增速、基建投资回暖之下表现 改善，是 9 月 GDP 回升的主要动力。 2、基建：政策效果初显，传统基建边际回暖。单月看，不含电力基建投资 9 月同比-4.6%、全口径基建同比-8.0%，一升一降。9 月下旬，多地新型政策性 金融工具资金完成首笔投放，投资施工等高频指标开始改善，指向基建投资景 气或有上行，10 月政策效果释放或更为充分。 2、房地产：投资降幅扩大，销售持稳。1-9 月地产投资累计同比增速-13.9%， 单月同比-21.3%，继续下滑 1.8pct。住宅销售面积同比-11.4%、较上月扩大- 1.7pct。"金九"行情弱于去年同期表现，总量政策维持定力之下，四季度高基 数扰动或进一步放大。 3、制造业投资：9 月降幅继续走扩。9 月制造业投资同比-1.9%，降幅扩大 0.6pct， 1-9 月累计同比+4.0%。国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for high dividend and stable performance assets in the transportation sector, indicating that it is an opportune time for allocation in transportation dividend assets [2]. Core Insights - The transportation sector has shown strong performance in October 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index, with highways and ports leading the gains [5][11]. - The low interest rate environment continues to support the sector, with stable government bond yields [21]. - The report highlights the potential for high dividend yields in A/H shares, with specific recommendations for companies like Sichuan Chengyu and Wutong Expressway [5][18]. Monthly Market Performance - In October 2025, the transportation sector rose by 1.46%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.18 percentage points, ranking 5th among 31 sectors [10]. - The performance of dividend assets (highways, railways, ports) was particularly strong, with highways up 4.48%, railways up 0.33%, and ports up 3.05% from October 1 to October 17 [11][14]. Industry Data - Highway passenger volume in August 2025 was 950 million, down 5.1% year-on-year, while freight volume increased by 3.9% [29]. - Railway passenger volume in September 2025 was 341 million, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, but cumulative volume for the year increased by 6% [40]. - Port cargo throughput for the first eight months of 2025 reached 1.2 billion tons, up 4.4% year-on-year, with container throughput also showing strong growth [49][51]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high dividend yield stocks in the transportation sector, particularly in highways and ports, with specific companies highlighted for their strong performance and dividend potential [5][18]. - Key recommendations include Sichuan Chengyu (6.3% dividend yield), China Merchants Port (5.9%), and Anhui Wantong Expressway (5.2%) [20].

Group 1: Liquidity and Fund Flow - The net inflow of industry ETFs reached 17.04 billion, marking a three-year high[8] - Southbound funds have accumulated a net inflow of over 560 billion in the past five months[2] - The net inflow of leveraged funds turned negative, with a net outflow of 14 billion last week[14] Group 2: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - The Shanghai Composite Index opened down 2.5% on October 13 due to escalating US-China trade tensions, leading to a surge in A-share search interest[2] - Retail investor net inflow reached 191.15 billion, an increase of 108.94 billion from the previous value, placing it in the 92.9 percentile over the past five years[2] - The public fund issuance increased significantly, with 5.65 billion shares newly issued last week, compared to 0.85 billion previously[10] Group 3: Trading Activity and Sector Performance - The trading heat for the machinery sector rose by 28 percentage points to 50%, while the healthcare sector dropped by 22 percentage points to 43%[7] - The net inflow in the non-ferrous metals sector was 6.09 billion, while the electronics sector saw a net outflow of 7.19 billion[23] - The overall net inflow of stock ETFs was 26.08 billion, with thematic ETFs contributing 24.55 billion[24]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 一是，进一步扩大免签范围。据证券时报、中国旅游研究院数据，截至今年 8 月，我国已对 47 国实施单方面免签政策、全面互免签证国家 29 个，较 2024 年末分别增加 9 个、4 个。从数据上看，参考国家移民管理局公布的数据，1- 8 月，"全国边检机关累计查验出入境人员 4.6 亿人次，同比上升 14.9%；其中 免签入境外国人 1589 万人次…同比大幅上升 52.1%。" 二是，优化离境退税标准，今年 4 月，商务部等 6 部门印发《关于进一步优化 离境退税政策扩大入境消费的通知》，提及下调离境退税起退点至 200 元人民 币，将离境退税"即买即退"服务措施推广至全国等措施。从数据上看，据商 务部"截至 8 月底，全国离境退税商店数量突破 1 万家，前 8 个月退税商品销 售额同比增长 97.5%，享受退税人数同比增长 2.5 倍。" 2024 年，入境消费修复至 2019 年的 9 成左右。一是总量上看，据文化和旅游 部国际交流与合作局副局长石泽毅介绍"2024 年，入境游客达到 1.32 亿人次， 总花费 942 亿美元，分别恢复到 2019 年水平的 97.2% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current round of Sino-US trade conflict heated up in October, but high tariffs may not last long. The market is relatively stable in sentiment, and the callback disturbance is limited. [3][6] - The demand - side support for convertible bonds remains. ETF funds in the convertible bond market are stronger than in April, catalyzing relatively firm valuations. [3][8] - There are structural differentiations in the convertible bond market. High - parity convertible bond valuations are compressed, and the market preference has shifted to the financial sector. [3] - Attention should be paid to the structural opportunities of convertible bonds, especially high - parity equity - biased varieties with large pullbacks and medium - and low - rated varieties that have corrected this time. [3] Summary According to the Directory I. Tariffs Rise Again, but Disturbance May Be Controllable - The Sino - US trade conflict heated up in October with frictions in multiple aspects. High tariffs may not last long and are mainly for bargaining chips. The market is relatively stable with over 90% probability that tariffs won't be implemented on November 1st and about 80% probability of a tariff agreement before November 10th. [3][6] - Market expectations are stable, and the callback disturbance is limited. The market performance after the restart of tariff disturbances was better than in April, and the VIX index was lower. [3][8] - The demand - side support for convertible bonds remains. The combined share of relevant ETFs increased by 41.49% compared to April 7th, catalyzing relatively firm valuations. [3][8] - There are structural differentiations in the convertible bond market. High - parity convertible bond valuations are compressed, and the market preference has shifted to the financial sector. Bank convertible bond prices rose by 1.6% from October 9th to October 17th, outperforming the convertible bond index by 3.9pct. [3][12] - Attention should be paid to the structural opportunities of convertible bonds. The median convertible bond price is around 130 yuan, and the 100 - yuan premium rate fluctuates at 30%. There may be opportunities in high - parity equity - biased varieties and medium - and low - rated varieties. [3][13] II. Market Review: Weekly Callback of Convertible Bonds, Slight Compression of Valuations (1) Weekly Market Quotes: Convertible Bond Market Callback, Weak Performance in Each Sector - Last week, major stock indexes performed weakly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 4.99%, the ChiNext Index fell 5.71%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.24%, the CSI 1000 Index fell 4.62%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 2.35%. [15] - There are 418 issued and unexpired convertible bonds with a balance of 5752.81 billion yuan. Yingliu Convertible Bonds will be listed on October 22nd. [15] - In the equity market, most industries performed weakly last week. Only the banking, food and beverage, and transportation industries rose. In the convertible bond market, most also declined, with only environmental protection and banking rising. [17] (2) Valuation Performance: High - Rating and Large - Scale Convertible Bond Premium Rates Compressed More - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 129.46 yuan, a 2.30% decline from the previous Friday. The closing prices of equity - biased, debt - biased, and balanced convertible bonds all decreased. The proportion of the 110 - 120 (including 120) price range increased significantly. [22] - The median price was 129.36 yuan, a 2.27% decline from the previous Friday. The 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate was 29.74%, a 0.62pct decline from the previous Friday. [22] - High - rating and large - scale convertible bond premium rates compressed more. The AAA rating declined 1.93pct, and the premium rate of convertible bonds over 5 billion yuan declined 1.76pct. The 120 - 130 (including 130) yuan par - value range declined 5.85pct. [22] III. Terms and Supply: 5 Convertible Bonds Announced Early Redemption, Total Pending Issuance Scale About 8.9 Billion (1) Terms: 5 Convertible Bonds Announced Early Redemption Last Week, No Convertible Bond Board Proposed Downward Revision - As of October 17th, Hengbang, Sheng 24, Chenfeng, Changji, and Nuitai Convertible Bonds announced early redemption; Mengsheng, Tairui, Xinzhi, Huicheng, and Yanpai Convertible Bonds announced no early redemption; Shenma, Tongcheng, Fuchun, Youfa, Zhonghuan Zhuan 2, and Youcai Convertible Bonds announced that they were expected to meet the early redemption conditions. [1][43] - As of October 17th, no convertible bond announced a downward - revision proposal last week. Zhengchuan Convertible Bonds announced the downward - revision result. Nine convertible bonds announced no downward revision, and seven were expected to trigger downward revision. [1][43] (2) Primary Market: Yingliu Convertible Bonds to Be Listed Soon, Total Pending Issuance Scale About 8.9 Billion - Last week, Jinlang Zhuan 02 and Funeng Convertible Bonds were issued, with a total scale of 5.479 billion yuan. Yingliu Convertible Bonds will be listed this week, with a scale of 1.5 billion yuan. [1][46] - Last week, 3 companies had new board proposals, 1 company passed the shareholders' meeting, no company passed the CSRC review committee, and 2 companies got CSRC approval, compared with +3, +1, - 1, +2 respectively compared to the same period last year. [1][47] - As of October 17th, 3 listed companies got convertible bond issuance approvals with a proposed issuance scale of 2.322 billion yuan. Six companies passed the CSRC review committee with a total scale of 3.983 billion yuan. Three new board proposals last week included Zhongqi Co., Ltd., Mankun Technology, and Huatong Cable, with a total scale of 2.599 billion yuan. [2][53]

Domestic Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance announced a new local government debt limit of 500 billion yuan, an increase of 100 billion yuan compared to last year[2] - The total available investment for the fourth quarter is nearly 1 trillion yuan, combining the new debt limit and previously announced fiscal tools[2] International Relations - A video call was held between Chinese and U.S. officials to discuss further economic negotiations, indicating ongoing communication despite trade tensions[3][10] - The Chinese government maintains a firm stance on trade disputes, emphasizing readiness for both negotiation and confrontation[3][12] Upcoming Events - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session will take place from October 20-23, focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan" recommendations[4] - The National People's Congress Standing Committee will meet from October 24-28 to review financial reports and asset management for 2024[4] Risk Factors - There is a risk of delayed policy updates, which could impact market expectations and economic stability[5]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 六问美国地区性银行"信贷危机"事件 ——海外周报第 110 期 核心观点：1、近期美国信贷市场再遇"危机"，导火索是两家区域性银行披露 其遭遇贷款欺诈，叠加 9 月两起信贷暴雷事件的影响，市场对信贷市场担忧情 绪蔓延，先抛再说，导致美国地区性银行股大跌。不过分析来看，近期发生的 事件更像是"一次性"的特定借款人风险爆发，而非彼此关联的信用危机大爆 发，且涉事规模相对有限，实际影响或可控。 2、海外怎么看？目前来看，分析师倾向于将这些违约事件视为个别现象，认 为其与特定借款人相关，而非系统性风险。但不可否认的是这些案例正加剧市 场不安情绪。 3、后续关注什么？最直接的是涉事银行（包括齐昂银行、西部联盟银行、 Jefferies）的股价，目前看 17 号已经有反弹迹象，反映市场情绪或企稳。也要 关注后续衍生影响是否有所蔓延。可能关注的指标包括：1）信用利差。2）流 动性状况，关注流动性跟踪体系指标。3）美国综合金融条件（金融条件指数）， 其会滞后影响美国经济基本面。 一、六问美国地区性银行"信贷危机"事件 （一）美国地区银行股为何突然大跌？ 当地时间 10 月 16 日， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the media industry, focusing on high-performing sectors such as gaming and IP industries [1][3]. Core Insights - The media sector is currently experiencing a downturn, with the media index down 6.27% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.05% [9][10]. - The gaming market shows resilience, with major titles like "Honor of Kings" consistently ranking at the top of iOS sales charts, indicating a stable demand [15][16]. - The IP industry is thriving, with successful exhibitions and strong performance from key companies, suggesting continued growth potential [6][28]. - The film market is recovering, with total box office revenue reaching 39.725 billion yuan, approximately 79% of the 2019 levels, indicating a positive trend in audience engagement [18][20]. Market Performance Review - The media index's absolute performance over the last month is 3.1%, with a 12-month performance of 72.0% [4]. - The gaming sector is highlighted for its high growth potential, with recommendations to focus on companies like Tencent and Huya [6][28]. - The film market's recovery is evidenced by a significant increase in box office revenue and audience numbers compared to previous years [18][20]. Industry News and Company Announcements - AI advancements are being integrated into various platforms, enhancing content creation capabilities, which could benefit media companies [28][30]. - Key companies in the gaming sector are launching new titles, indicating ongoing innovation and competition in the market [18][30]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic acquisitions and partnerships for companies to enhance their market position and growth prospects [32][33].

Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of Xinjiang in the context of national policies, highlighting its transition from a geographical hinterland to a frontline hub due to the Belt and Road Initiative. This shift positions Xinjiang as a key player in energy security and coal chemical industry development [7][8] - The report identifies two main investment themes: coal chemical investments and state-owned enterprise reforms in Xinjiang. It suggests that the external environment for coal chemical development is now favorable, driven by rising coal prices and the need for energy security [7][10] Xinjiang Index Situation - The Xinjiang index stands at 125.47, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.43%. The coal chemical investment index is at 122.27, down 7.19%, while the state-owned enterprise reform index is at 130.68, down 0.61% [14] - The report lists the top gainers and losers in the market, with Huijia Times (603101.SH) up 13.82% and Guangdong Hongda (002683.SZ) down 12.21% [14] Key Data Tracking - Key prices in Xinjiang include Q5000 mixed coal at 100 CNY/ton, Q5200 mixed coal at 215 CNY/ton, and urea at 1430 CNY/ton, with a price difference of -130 CNY/ton compared to Shandong [18][27] - In September 2025, coal railway shipments from state-owned key coal mines reached 3.109 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.77%, while the raw coal production in August was 42.2 million tons, down 2.18% year-on-year [18][30] Key News and Company Announcements - On October 14, a key evaluation meeting for the Xinjiang New Industry Group's 2 billion cubic meters/year coal-to-natural gas project was held, marking a significant step towards project approval and construction [33][37] - Several other coal chemical projects are progressing, including a 60,000 tons/year synthetic gas ethanol project and a 1.5 million tons/year coal clean utilization project, indicating a robust pipeline of developments in the sector [36][37] Overview of Target Companies - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in coal chemical investments in Xinjiang, such as Tebian Electric Apparatus, Jiufeng Energy, and Baofeng Energy, as well as service providers and local state-owned enterprises that may benefit from ongoing reforms [11][12][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Credit bonds showed a compensatory rise this week, with most yields declining and credit spreads narrowing. The market is expected to consolidate around the 1.75% level, and investors can focus on adding positions in 4 - 5y bonds with spreads above the central level [5][10]. - The marginal release of negative factors in the bond market, with the main negative disturbances being the implementation of the fund sales fee policy and potential short - term increases in risk appetite. The attractiveness of medium - and long - term bonds with wider credit spreads has increased [5][10]. - The allocation power of funds for 3 - 5y credit bonds has recovered. The 4 - 5y bonds are cost - effective, and the narrowing of spreads is expected, but it may be difficult to reach the lows of July - August [2][14]. - For bonds over 5y, although the yields are high, caution is needed as they test the stability of the liability side. Institutions with stable liability sides can capture allocation opportunities, while those with weak liability sides should participate with small positions [3][23]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Credit Strategy: 4 - 5y Bond Spreads Are Still Above the Central Level, and Positions Can Be Appropriately Added 3.1.1 Credit Bond Market Review: Yields Generally Declined, and Credit Spreads Generally Narrowed - This week, credit bonds compensated for the rise, with most yields declining and credit spreads narrowing. The capital price remained low, and the bond market was affected by various factors such as Sino - US tariff games, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and the new regulations on public fund sales fees, showing a volatile trend. Institutions had a good allocation sentiment for credit bonds, and credit performance was better than interest - rate products [9]. 3.1.2 Outlook for the Future: Negative Factors Are Marginally Released, and Attention Should Be Paid to the Opportunity to Add Positions in 4 - 5y Bonds - The 10y Treasury bond's volatility center has moved down due to tariff shocks, and the market may consolidate around 1.75%. The negative factors in the bond market are marginally released, and the main negative disturbances are the implementation of the fund sales fee policy and potential short - term increases in risk appetite. The attractiveness of 4 - 5y bonds with spreads above the central level has increased [5][10]. 3.2 Key Policies and Hot Events: The New Policy - Based Financial Instruments in This Round Have Exceeded One Billion, and the Chairman of Vanke Has Changed - The Ministry of Finance will continue to issue in advance the new local government debt quota for 2026, which can be used for project construction, resolving implicit debts, and solving government arrears to enterprises [24]. - The first - phase funds of new policy - based financial instruments in 12 provinces have exceeded 1.1 billion, with local state - owned enterprises as the main recipients, including many urban investment companies [24]. - Xin Jie resigned as the chairman of Vanke, and Huang Liping took over. Vanke's bond valuation has fluctuated recently, and attention should be paid to Shenzhen Metro's support and debt - resolution plans [25]. - The Ministry of Finance has issued a quota of 28 billion yuan for Hebei Province to replace implicit debts in 2026, which is currently awaiting allocation [25]. - Beijing has issued a plan to strengthen the role of the capital market in supporting scientific and technological innovation, including creating a "Zhongguancun Science and Technology Board" for bonds and supporting eligible projects to issue REITs [26]. 3.3 Secondary Market: Credit Bond Yields Generally Declined, and Credit Spreads Generally Narrowed - This week, credit bond yields generally declined, and credit spreads generally narrowed. For different types of bonds such as urban investment bonds, real - estate bonds, cyclical bonds, and financial bonds, most yields declined and spreads narrowed, with some individual varieties showing different trends [29]. 3.4 Primary Market: The Net Financing of Credit Bonds and Urban Investment Bonds Increased Month - on - Month - This week, the issuance of credit bonds was 418.1 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 341.9 billion yuan, and the net financing was 184.7 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 295 billion yuan. The net financing of urban investment bonds was 22 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 89.9 billion yuan [6]. 3.5 Trading Liquidity: The Trading Activity in the Inter - bank and Exchange Markets of Credit Bonds Increased - This week, the trading activity in both the inter - bank and exchange markets of credit bonds increased [6]. 3.6 Rating Adjustments: No Rating Upgrades or Downgrades This Week - There were no rating upgrades or downgrades of bond issuers this week [6].