Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for both new and second-hand housing markets in Shanghai [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector index fell by 2.3%, ranking 15th among 31 primary industry sectors [9] - New housing demand is declining, and inventory issues remain unresolved, necessitating stronger policy support to alleviate downward pressure on the real estate fundamentals [33] - The report emphasizes the importance of precise land acquisition for real estate companies to gradually shift from PB valuation to PS valuation [33] Industry Basic Data - Total number of stocks: 107 [2] - Total market value: 1,296.84 billion [2] - Circulating market value: 1,241.59 billion [2] Sales Performance - In the 42nd week, new housing transaction area increased by 115% week-on-week but decreased by 20% year-on-year, totaling 2.25 million square meters [21] - The average daily transaction area for new housing was 322,000 square meters [21] - For second-hand housing, the transaction area increased by 98% week-on-week but decreased by 18% year-on-year, totaling 199,000 square meters [25] Policy News - Shanghai is accelerating the renovation of "two old and one village" and enhancing urban governance [16] - New policies in Tianjin allow homeowners to withdraw housing provident fund for elevator installations [16] - Xiamen has announced optimized residency conditions effective from November 1, 2025 [16] Company Dynamics - Gemdale Group announced the acquisition of a residential land project in Wuhan for 45.6 million [20] - China Resources Land reported the acquisition of two land parcels in Wuhan and Chengdu with a total floor area of approximately 187,089 square meters for about 9.6 billion [20] - China Merchants Shekou won a residential land bid in Sanya for 458 million, with a floor area of 74,700 square meters [19]

—Christophe Fouquet 多资产配置研究 资产配置快评 2025 年 10 月 22 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：牛播坤 证 券 研 究 报 告 【资产配置快评】2025 年第 46 期 Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图 表精粹 投资摘要： Sometimes I say, Moore's Law will only stop when people stop having ideas ...And I think that has not happened so far. 邮箱：niubokun@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360514030002 证券分析师：郭忠良 邮箱：guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090002 相关研究报告 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 45 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-10-14 《资配如何应对新变化—— 总量"创"辩第 113 期》 2025-10-14 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 44 期：Riders on the C ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 昂利康（002940）重大事项点评 强推（维持） 莱古比星入选 ESMO LBA，平台得到进一步验证 事项： 公司研究 化学制剂 2025 年 10 月 22 日 | 目标价：52.05 | 元 | | --- | --- | | 当前价：38.92 | 元 | 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：郑辰 邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520110002 公司紧密合作伙伴亲合力的首款创新化疗药物莱古比星 III 期结果入选 ESMO 2025 LBA 并口头汇报。数据整体表现惊艳，呈现疗效和安全性的双优，其肿 瘤微环境特异激活（TMEA)平台机制获得临床级验证。公司深度合作管线的首 款创新药 ALK-N001 依托同一平台路径，后续进展值得关注。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 1,538 | 1,470 | 1,806 | 2,234 | | 同比增速(%) | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the liquor sector, indicating a bottoming out phase with potential for recovery in the future [2]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a significant decline in sales, with an expected drop of over 20% in overall sales volume. However, there are signs of month-on-month improvement, and the decline is narrowing [5][9]. - Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are showing strong recovery in payment collection, with over 80% collection rates, while regional brands are performing adequately [5][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-quality liquor brands that are likely to recover faster, such as Moutai and Fenjiu, while also highlighting the need to monitor companies undergoing significant changes [6][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector: Q3 Accelerated Decline and Bottoming Out - The liquor sector is facing a 20%+ decline in sales due to external demand shocks, with a gradual improvement expected in the coming months [5][9]. - High-end liquor brands are expected to show resilience, with Moutai projected to achieve a 3% revenue growth in Q3, while Wuliangye is expected to see a 20% revenue decline [10][11]. - The report indicates that companies are adjusting their strategies to reduce channel pressure and improve operational efficiency [9][10]. 2. Consumer Goods Sector: Overall Demand Weakness, Structural Resilience - The consumer goods sector is experiencing overall weak demand, but segments like snacks and beverages are showing higher resilience [17][24]. - The report notes that while the demand for dairy and beer remains stable, the restaurant supply chain is still under pressure [17][24]. - Raw material prices are generally declining, which may provide some cost relief to companies in the sector [24][25]. 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Liquor Bottoming Catalysts and Selective Consumer Goods Trends - The report suggests focusing on liquor companies that are at the bottom of their cycles, with Moutai and Fenjiu being primary recommendations [6][9]. - For consumer goods, the report highlights the potential of snack and beverage companies, recommending brands that are well-positioned to benefit from current trends [6][17].

Economic Growth Perspective - In Q3, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, while the nominal GDP growth rate was 3.7%[5] - Industrial output growth was 6.2%, while demand growth (including retail, fixed investment, and exports) was 2.98%, resulting in a growth rate difference of 3.2%[5] - Export growth was 7.1%, compared to a combined growth of 1.92% for retail and fixed investment, leading to a difference of 5.18%[5] Consumer Spending Insights - The combined growth rate for travel and policy-driven replacement consumption was 8.6%, while essential consumption categories like food and clothing saw a growth rate of only 0.3%[5] - The consumer spending tendency in Q3 was 68.1%, down from 68.9% in the same period last year, indicating a decline in consumer confidence[48] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was -6.6% in Q3, a significant drop from the previous value of 1.8%[43] - Equipment investment grew by 14%, contrasting with a -4.1% decline in construction investment, highlighting a shift towards new economic sectors[15] Market Expectations and Policy Recommendations - To stabilize market expectations, it is crucial to maintain confidence in long-term economic transformation and short-term price recovery, with a target Q4 growth rate of around 4.5% to meet the annual goal[4] - The need for further reduction in mortgage rates is emphasized, as the cumulative decline in second-hand housing prices was 3.93% while mortgage rates only decreased by 3 basis points[8] Employment and Labor Market - The total number of rural laborers working outside their home areas reached 19.187 million, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%[52] - The urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, showing a slight decrease from the previous month[56]

Group 1: Core Conclusions - The tax competition index and tax refund rate for listed companies in China are currently at a 20-year high, indicating the urgent need for a unified market in China[2] - The European Single Market Scoreboard system provides valuable insights for China's unified market construction, focusing on historical context and operational mechanisms[2] Group 2: European Single Market Scoreboard - The Scoreboard uses a "traffic light" system to evaluate member states' performance, categorizing them as "green" (above average), "yellow" (average), or "red" (below average)[3] - It consists of three dimensions: Enforcement tools, Business Framework Conditions, and Outcomes and Competitiveness, with multiple quantifiable sub-indicators under each dimension[3][13] Group 3: Advantages of the Scoreboard - The evaluation system is quantifiable, allowing for cross-regional and temporal comparisons, with regular publication of results[3][14] - The Scoreboard emphasizes support for small and medium-sized enterprises, which can be a reference for China's market development[3][14] Group 4: Operational Mechanisms - The Enforcement tools dimension includes six indicators to assess the correct implementation of EU market rules, such as transposition deficit and infringement proceedings[6][35] - The Business Framework Conditions dimension evaluates member states' performance in creating a conducive business environment, with six indicators including market supervision and access to public procurement[9][10] Group 5: Implications for China - The Scoreboard's comprehensive evaluation can guide China in establishing its own unified market framework, focusing on governance, performance, and competitiveness[3][14] - The emphasis on resolving cross-border disputes and sharing government information through systems like IMI, SOLVIT, and EURES can enhance China's market efficiency[3][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer (000729) with a target price of 15.5 CNY [2][9]. Core Insights - Yanjing Beer reported a total revenue of 13.43 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.77 billion CNY, up 37.4% year-on-year [2]. - The company's U8 product line continues to show strong growth, with sales volume for Q3 slightly increasing to 1.1435 million kiloliters, driven by improved market conditions in September [9]. - Cost optimization has led to a decrease in unit costs by 2.8% to 2,125 CNY per kiloliter, contributing to a gross margin increase of 2.2 percentage points to 50.2% [9]. - The report highlights that the company is on track to meet its annual sales target of 900,000 tons for the U8 product, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 30% as of September [9]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 14.667 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 3.2%. The net profit is expected to be 1.056 billion CNY, reflecting a significant growth rate of 63.7% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025E is 0.55 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23 [5][9]. - The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-asset ratio of 32.55% and a net asset value per share of 5.62 CNY [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 54.6 yuan for 2026 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 156.785 billion to 177.689 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 70% [2][6]. - The third quarter of 2025 is projected to yield a net profit of 115.854 billion to 136.758 billion yuan, indicating a quarterly growth rate of 75% to 106% [6]. - The significant growth in profits is primarily driven by increased equity investments, with the company actively seizing market opportunities [6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2024: 528.567 billion yuan - 2025E: 597.961 billion yuan - 2026E: 538.228 billion yuan - 2027E: 581.141 billion yuan - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2024: 106.935 billion yuan - 2025E: 176.476 billion yuan - 2026E: 114.417 billion yuan - 2027E: 137.478 billion yuan - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: 3.78 yuan - 2025E: 6.24 yuan - 2026E: 4.05 yuan - 2027E: 4.86 yuan - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)**: - 2025E: 6.8 [2][6][7]. Investment Strategy - The company has increased its allocation to equity assets, with stocks rising by 1.12 percentage points to 8.7% and funds increasing by 0.28 percentage points to 4.92%, making a total equity asset allocation of 13.62% [6]. - The report highlights the company's strategy of flexible asset allocation to capture structural market opportunities, with total investment assets reaching 7.13 trillion yuan as of mid-2025, a 7.8% increase from the previous year [6][7].

Group 1: Stable Cash Flow Assets - Pharmaceutical commerce has a cash flow ratio of 55% in Q2 2025, indicating a stable cash flow generation capacity since 2021[11] - The hotel and catering industry shows a cash flow ratio of 49% in Q2 2025, with an average cash flow ratio of 50% from 2016 to 2024[18] - General retail has a cash flow ratio of 49% in Q2 2025, supported by reduced capital expenditures and inventory depletion[25] - Telecom operators maintain a cash flow ratio of 39% in Q2 2025, benefiting from stable demand and high user retention[32] Group 2: Improving Cash Flow Assets - The trade sector exhibits a cash flow ratio of 63% in Q2 2025, significantly improved due to reduced capital expenditures and inventory shrinkage[41] - The potential shareholder return rate for the trade sector is 7.1%, while the actual return is only 1.9%, indicating substantial room for dividend release[44] Group 3: Assets Under Pressure - The tourism and scenic area sector has a cash flow ratio of 21% in Q2 2025, with profitability still below pre-pandemic levels[51] - Professional services show a cash flow ratio of 13% in Q2 2025, with a significant decline in profitability due to weak demand[55] - Medical services have a cash flow ratio of 25% in Q2 2025, with profitability under pressure and limited dividend release potential[61] - The education sector has a cash flow ratio of 52% in Q2 2025, but profitability remains constrained post-regulatory changes[67] Group 4: High Expenditure Assets - The automotive services and IT services sectors are still in a high expenditure phase, with capital expenditures exceeding 1.5 in Q2 2025, indicating a new cycle of high spending driven by technological advancements[3]

Group 1: Historical Context - There have been five notable periods of divergence between export price growth and PPI, with four historical cycles analyzed[5] - In three of the four historical cycles, export prices converged downwards towards PPI, while only in the first cycle did PPI align upwards with export prices[5][15] - The first cycle (March 2006 - July 2006) was characterized by strong external demand, unlike the subsequent cycles where global export growth declined[20] Group 2: Current Economic Indicators - Current external demand shows improvement, with global goods export growth entering an upward trend since mid-2023[20] - China's export growth has stabilized in the current cycle, resembling the first cycle, while previous cycles experienced declining export growth[21][22] - The RMB has depreciated against the USD, but the extent of depreciation is smaller compared to cycles 2-4, with a recent trend of appreciation since July[25] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic supply-demand dynamics are crucial for PPI, with current indicators showing a supply-demand gap similar to cycles 2-4, indicating weaker demand compared to cycle 1[34][40] - The manufacturing PMI and new orders-production index differences suggest a more pronounced supply-demand imbalance in the current cycle[34][35] Group 4: Unique Factors in Current Cycle - Tariff impacts have led to significant structural adjustments in China's export regions and product types, with a notable decline in exports to low-price regions, particularly the U.S.[43][46] - The share of high-priced goods in China's exports has increased, with the share of equipment manufacturing products rising to 59.2% in the first eight months of 2025, the second highest since 2001[50][56]