- In the past two years, broad-based ETFs have experienced significant net outflows, with a cumulative net outflow of 534.63 billion yuan since 2026, including 267.32 billion yuan from CSI 300, 71.58 billion yuan from CSI 1000, 45.67 billion yuan from STAR 50, 49.11 billion yuan from SSE 50, and 33.39 billion yuan from ChiNext Index[3] - Since 2024, there have been four major net inflows of medium- and long-term funds through broad-based ETFs, mainly into CSI 300 (current retained market value of approximately 608.8 billion yuan), CSI 1000 (approximately 163.4 billion yuan), CSI 500 (approximately 137.7 billion yuan), and ChiNext Index (approximately 105.8 billion yuan)[3] - Medium- and long-term funds in Q3 2025 were heavily invested in banks (37% of market value), non-bank financials (19%), food and beverage (5%), construction (4%), and utilities (4%)[3] - The report provides detailed statistics on the net inflows and outflows of major broad-based ETFs, including CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, SSE 50, ChiNext Index, and others, with specific figures for each ETF[5] - The report includes a table estimating the current cost lines for major ETFs, showing the buy and sell cost lines for each round of net inflows and outflows, along with the retained market value and the current index price[7] - The report lists the top holdings of medium- and long-term funds in Q3 2025, including Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Ping An Insurance, Bank of China, and others, with specific market values and percentages[9] - The report notes that the data comes from periodic reports disclosed by listed companies, fund reports, and other sources, and that medium- and long-term funds include entities such as Central Huijin, China Securities Finance, and others[10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, under the "controlling incremental" policy, the national land transaction volume continued to decline, but the decline significantly narrowed. The full - year transaction volume was about 3.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9%, and the decline decreased by 9 percentage points year - on - year. The premium rate was about 7.5%, a year - on - year increase of 1.25 percentage points, and the proportion of land purchased by urban investment companies was around 45%, a year - on - year decrease of 6 percentage points [6][9]. - Looking forward, land supply may continue to be optimized, and the decline in land transaction volume may narrow, driving the year - on - year decline in land transfer income in government fund revenue to continue narrowing. Attention should be paid to land supply in core cities and the confidence of real - estate enterprises in land acquisition [6][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 National Land Transaction Changes - In 2025, the central government made efforts in demand, supply, and real - estate enterprise financing to promote the market to "stop falling and stabilize". The land transaction volume continued to decline but with a narrowing decline. Structurally, in the first half of the year, the transaction volume increased by 12% year - on - year, decreased by 7% in the third quarter, and decreased by 22% in the fourth quarter, with a significant increase in urban investment companies' land acquisition for support [6][9]. 3.2 2025 Provincial and Municipal Land Transaction Status Analysis 3.2.1 Provincial Land Transactions - In terms of transaction volume, Jiangsu and Zhejiang exceeded 400 billion yuan, Shandong and Guangdong exceeded 200 billion yuan, and Qinghai and Ningxia were less than 10 billion yuan. 14 provinces had year - on - year growth, with Jilin at 84%, while Shaanxi decreased by 37%, and Jiangsu and Guangxi decreased by over 20% [2][20]. - In terms of premium rate, 15 provinces exceeded 5%, with Zhejiang, Shanghai, etc. exceeding 10%, and Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Shaanxi less than 2%. 20 provinces had a year - on - year increase, with Zhejiang increasing by nearly 11 percentage points, and Guangxi decreasing by about 9 percentage points [2][21]. 3.2.2 Top 30 Cities in Land Transaction Volume - The top 30 cities in land transaction volume were mainly in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Hangzhou had the highest transaction volume at 183 billion yuan, followed by cities with over 70 billion yuan. 10 cities had year - on - year growth, and Yancheng and Changzhou decreased by over 50% [3][23]. - In terms of premium rate, Shenzhen and Hangzhou were around 30%. 17 cities had a year - on - year increase, with Hangzhou, Jinhua, and Taizhou increasing by 10 percentage points or more, and Yangzhou decreasing by 48 percentage points [3][23]. 3.3 2025 Provincial and Municipal Urban Investment Company Land Acquisition Status Analysis 3.3.1 Provincial Urban Investment Company Land Acquisition - In terms of land acquisition amount, Jiangsu ranked first at 332.2 billion yuan, with Shandong, Zhejiang, Hubei, and Sichuan exceeding 100 billion yuan. 9 provinces had year - on - year growth, and Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi decreased by over 50% [4][25]. - In terms of the proportion of land acquisition, 10 provinces had a proportion over 50%, concentrated in the central and western regions. 9 provinces had a year - on - year increase, and Liaoning decreased by over 20 percentage points [4][25]. 3.3.2 Top 30 Cities in Urban Investment Company Land Acquisition Amount - The top 30 cities in urban investment company land acquisition amount were mainly in Jiangsu. Nantong, Wuhan, and Nanjing exceeded 40 billion yuan. 7 cities had year - on - year growth, and Yancheng, Changzhou, and Xi'an decreased by over 50% [5][27]. - In terms of the proportion of land acquisition, 19 cities had a proportion over 50%, with Yangzhou at 80% and Hangzhou at 12%. 6 cities had a year - on - year increase, with Hefei increasing by nearly 12 percentage points and Wuxi decreasing by nearly 27 percentage points [5][27]. 3.3.3 Top 30 Urban Investment Entities in Land Acquisition Amount - In 2025, the top 30 urban investment entities in land acquisition amount were mainly in Jiangsu and Fujian. Wuhan Urban Construction Ruizhen Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. had the highest amount at 12.9 billion yuan. Beijing Huarong Infrastructure Investment Co., Ltd. had the highest proportion of local land transaction volume at 100% [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [16]. Core Insights - NVIDIA and Eli Lilly announced a partnership to establish an AI joint innovation lab aimed at addressing challenges in the pharmaceutical industry, with a planned investment of up to $1 billion over the next five years [2][5]. - The global AI pharmaceutical market is projected to grow from approximately $1.76 billion in 2024 to $2.99 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 30% from 2021 to 2026 [5]. - Companies like 英矽智能, 华兰股份, and 晶泰控股 are highlighted as key players in the AI + biopharmaceutical sector, showcasing significant advancements and investments in AI-driven drug discovery and development [5]. Industry Data - The computer industry consists of 337 listed companies with a total market capitalization of ¥64,957.50 billion and a circulating market capitalization of ¥58,620.09 billion [2]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 12 months is reported at 42.4%, with a relative performance of 19.2% compared to the benchmark [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" for the year 2026, indicating an expectation of exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [20]. Core Insights - The latest predetermined interest rate research value is 1.89%, which is 14 basis points away from the downward adjustment threshold. The decline has significantly narrowed compared to previous quarters [2]. - Starting from September 1, 2025, the upper limit for the predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance will be reduced from 2.5% to 2%, with corresponding limits for participating insurance at 1.75% and universal insurance at 1% [2]. - The current interest rate environment may still have potential for short-term increases, and the predetermined interest rate research value is likely to stabilize in the near term. It is expected that the upper limit for ordinary life insurance will remain at the current level of 2% in 2026 [2]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Research - The predetermined interest rate research value has decreased by 1 basis point from the previous quarter, indicating a significant convergence in the decline [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield's 250-day average is currently at 1.76%, with the current value at 1.83%. A further decline in the yield to 1.56% or below may trigger a reduction in the predetermined interest rate research value to the adjustment threshold of 1.75% [2]. Long-term Outlook - The downward trend in the predetermined interest rate research value is expected to stabilize, signaling positive long-term development for the industry. The pressure for asset reallocation is significantly reduced [8]. - The "spread loss" issue for leading life insurance companies is likely resolved, and the price-earnings value (PEV) for some life insurance targets may recover to above 1x [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the commercial aviation engine industry, indicating a positive investment outlook [1]. Core Insights - The commercial aviation engine is referred to as the "crown jewel" of modern industry, with engines accounting for approximately 25% of the total value of commercial aircraft [4][20]. - The report emphasizes the significant growth potential of China's commercial aviation engine market, projecting a total market size exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan over the next 20 years, with an annualized scale of over 130 billion yuan [5][11]. - The commercial aviation engine supply chain is characterized by high barriers to entry, with a global oligopoly dominated by a few major manufacturers [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report introduces the commercial aviation engine as a critical component of modern industrial capabilities, highlighting China's reliance on imported engines and the low marketization rate of domestic engines, which is less than 1% [4][21]. Commercial Aviation Engine Analysis - The structure of commercial aviation engines includes key components such as fans, compressors, combustion chambers, and turbines, with the hot section being the most critical and challenging to manufacture [26][33]. - The aftermarket services for engines can generate revenues up to four times the initial sale price, indicating a lucrative long-term profit potential [4][18]. Business Model Exploration - The primary manufacturers operate under a "super blade + long-term blade" profit model, leveraging significant discounts on initial sales to capture market share while securing long-term service contracts for profitability [5][6]. - Suppliers in the engine manufacturing chain are positioned as "hidden champions," benefiting from high entry barriers and the need for extensive certification processes [5][6]. Global Valuation Perspective - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for major engine manufacturers is reported at 30.2 times, with leading companies like GE Aerospace at 42 times, indicating robust valuation metrics driven by order backlog and aftermarket growth [5][6]. - Core suppliers exhibit an even higher average PE of 68.5 times, reflecting their scarcity and stable demand characteristics [5][6]. China's Commercial Aviation Engine Market - The report highlights the Longjiang series of engines as a key initiative to reduce reliance on foreign technology and enhance domestic capabilities [5][11]. - The projected growth of the Chinese aviation market is supported by forecasts indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4% from 2024 to 2044, with expectations of 10,175 aircraft by 2044 [5][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three key areas within the domestic aviation engine supply chain: core component suppliers, high-temperature alloy manufacturers, and raw material suppliers [5][11].

Market Overview - The macroeconomic environment in China showed a mild recovery in December 2025, with social financing stock reaching 442.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%[9] - The total market capitalization of public funds reached a record high of 37.15 trillion yuan, growing by 0.88% month-on-month and 13.16% year-on-year[44] Savings and Deposits - Resident savings deposits increased significantly, with a monthly increase of 25,850 billion yuan in December, marking a month-on-month growth rate of 1.58% and a year-on-year growth rate of 9.68%[22] - The proportion of demand deposits rose, while the share of time deposits fell to 73.42% in December from 74.04% in November, indicating a shift towards liquidity preference[30] Financial Products - The total number of wealth management products reached 45,172, with a total scale of 31.69 trillion yuan in November, slightly down from October but maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of 6.12%[33] - The public fund market saw a significant rebound in equity funds, with the average return of mixed equity funds reaching 33.19% by the end of December[13] Bond Market - The one-year government bond yield was recorded at 1.337% at the end of December, showing a decline compared to previous months, while the ten-year yield remained stable at 1.872%[10] - The 20-year government bond yield increased by 6.1 basis points to 2.321% at the end of December[10] Cross-Border Wealth Management - The southbound capital flow recorded a net outflow of 16.762 billion yuan, while the northbound flow saw a minimal net inflow of 0.025 billion yuan, indicating an imbalance in cross-border capital movement[25]

Market Overview - The macroeconomic environment in China showed a mild recovery in December 2025, with social financing stock reaching CNY 442.12 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%[9] - The total amount of social financing increased by CNY 35.6 trillion in 2025, which is CNY 3.34 trillion more than the previous year[9] Bond Market - As of December 2025, the 1-year government bond yield was 1.337%, down from previous months, while the 10-year yield was stable at 1.872%[10] - The 20-year government bond yield rose to 2.321%, an increase of 6.1 basis points from the previous month[10] Stock Market - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.84 points on December 31, 2025, with a quarterly stability around 4000 points[13] - The Wind mixed equity fund index achieved a year-to-date return of 33.19% by the end of December, with a monthly return of 3.06%[13] Savings and Deposits - Resident savings deposits increased significantly, with a monthly increase of CNY 25,850 billion in December, marking a month-on-month growth rate of 1.58%[22] - The proportion of demand deposits rose, while time deposits decreased by over 50 basis points to 73.42% in December[30] Wealth Management Products - The total number of wealth management products reached 45,172 by the end of November 2025, with a total scale of CNY 31.69 trillion, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.12%[33] - The wealth management market experienced significant volatility in returns, with a weighted average return of 2.93% in October, followed by a drop to 1.27% in November[35] Public Fund Market - The total scale of public funds reached CNY 37.15 trillion by December 31, 2025, a 0.88% increase from November and a 13.16% increase year-on-year[44] - Equity funds showed significant growth, while money market funds experienced a slight decline of 0.77% in scale[44] Cross-Border Wealth Management - As of December 2025, the southbound capital flow recorded a net outflow of CNY 167.62 billion, while the northbound flow had a net inflow of only CNY 2.50 billion[25] - This trend indicates a strong demand for diversified asset allocation among domestic investors[25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][23]. Core Insights - The company forecasts a total revenue of 4.26 to 4.42 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.07% to 15.24%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between 306 to 326 million yuan, with a growth of 20.61% to 28.49% [2][3]. - For Q4 2025, the company anticipates a revenue of 1.2 billion yuan, a 6.91% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 74 million yuan, reflecting an 18.17% growth [2]. - The report highlights three main growth drivers for 2026: continued benefits from domestic substitution in cream products, accelerated expansion in supermarkets, and growth in the new retail sector for catering [7]. Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 4.35 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.4%. The net profit is expected to reach 321 million yuan, marking a 19.8% increase [3][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.90 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24 times [3][12]. - The company’s total assets are estimated to be 4.727 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 44.6% [12]. Market Position and Valuation - The current market capitalization of the company is approximately 7.847 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 5.4 billion yuan [4]. - The target price for the stock is set at 62.4 yuan, which corresponds to a P/E ratio of about 28 times for 2026 [3][12]. - The company has shown resilience in maintaining profitability despite cost pressures from rising raw material prices, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 67.6 yuan [2][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth in 2025, with net profit projected between 220 million to 250 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.6% to 50.9% [2]. - The performance of the company's subsidiary, Nanfu Battery, is anticipated to exceed its profit commitments, driven by an increase in ownership stake to 46% [8]. - The company is actively pursuing multiple business development avenues, including investments in emerging technologies such as optical chips, which are expected to contribute to future growth [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 4,638 million yuan in 2024 to 5,629 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.5% [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from 168 million yuan in 2024 to 482 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 10.5% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.65 yuan in 2024 to 1.87 yuan in 2027 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 78 times in 2024 to 27 times in 2027, indicating an improving valuation [4].

证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2026 年第 3 周） 首开集团发行 7.5 亿私募债，1 月至今 11 城 推荐（维持） 二手房成交同比增长 19% 行业研究 房地产 2026 年 01 月 21 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,199.78 | 0.98 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 11,699.32 | 1.17 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 3.7% | 7.2% | 8.4% | | 相对表现 | 0.1% | -9.4% | -15.8% ...