宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】5 月美国非农数据点评 就业稳中趋弱，亮点在时薪增长 主要观点 ❖ 5 月非农数据简述：新增非农就业小幅超预期 1、新增非农就业小幅超预期，录得 13.9 万，预期 13 万。就业增长集中在 3 个 行业，教育保健服务（+8.7 万，前值+10 万）、休闲酒店业（+4.8 万，前值+2.9 万）、金融业（+1.3 万，前值+0.3 万），其他服务业（+0.9 万，前值-0.2 万）、 交运仓储（+0.58 万，前值-0.81 万）的就业亦有小幅增长。专业和商业服务、 采矿、制造业、零售、政府部门的就业萎缩。精简政府效果逐步体现，联邦政 府人员就业净减少 2 万，上月减少 1.3 万。罢工对本月非农就业基本无影响。 2、失业率持平于 4.2%。从失业原因来看，再就业和新入职者增加，分别带来 失业人数增加约 5.3 万、2.4 万，离职者减少导致失业人数大幅下降约 15.1 万， 企业裁员（永久失业）基本保持不变。此外，如果今年年内要连续三个月触发 衰退预警的萨姆法则，大概需要下半年失业率升至 4.6%及以上。 第一，前两个月新增非农就业下修明显，合计下修 9.5 万 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】5 月美国非农数据点评 就业稳中趋弱，亮点在时薪增长 主要观点 ❖ 5 月非农数据简述：新增非农就业小幅超预期 1、新增非农就业小幅超预期，录得 13.9 万，预期 13 万。就业增长集中在 3 个 行业，教育保健服务（+8.7 万，前值+10 万）、休闲酒店业（+4.8 万，前值+2.9 万）、金融业（+1.3 万，前值+0.3 万），其他服务业（+0.9 万，前值-0.2 万）、 交运仓储（+0.58 万，前值-0.81 万）的就业亦有小幅增长。专业和商业服务、 采矿、制造业、零售、政府部门的就业萎缩。精简政府效果逐步体现，联邦政 府人员就业净减少 2 万，上月减少 1.3 万。罢工对本月非农就业基本无影响。 2、失业率持平于 4.2%。从失业原因来看，再就业和新入职者增加，分别带来 失业人数增加约 5.3 万、2.4 万，离职者减少导致失业人数大幅下降约 15.1 万， 企业裁员（永久失业）基本保持不变。此外，如果今年年内要连续三个月触发 衰退预警的萨姆法则，大概需要下半年失业率升至 4.6%及以上。 3、时薪增速超预期，环比 0.4%，预期 0.3%，前值 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 保险行业周报（20250603-20250606） 推荐（维持） 平安拟发行 117.65 亿港元 H 股可转债 ❑ 本周行情复盘：保险指数上涨 1.03%，跑赢大盘 0.15pct。保险个股表现分化， 新华+5.94%，太平+5.64%，国寿+4.54%，友邦+2.13%，太保+1.60%，财险 +1.07%，平安+0.24%，人保+0.24%，阳光-2.74%，众安-9.14%。10 年期国债 收益率 1.65%，较上周末-2bps。 ❑ 本周动态： （1）每经网：6 月 3 日，中国太保正式发布总规模 500 亿元的太保战新并购 基金与私募证券投资基金。其中，太保战新并购私募基金（暂定名，以基金正 式备案名称为准）目标规模 300 亿元，首期规模 100 亿元，聚焦上海国资国企 改革和现代化产业体系建设的重点领域，太保致远 1 号私募证券投资基金（暂 定名，以基金正式备案名称为准）目标规模 200 亿元。 （2）慧保天下：5 月 30 日，平安资管获得监管批复，设立恒毅持盈（深圳） 私募基金管理有限公司。恒毅持盈将作为基金管理人向平安人寿定向发行契约 型私募证券投资基金，首期基金 ...

www.hczq.com 证券研究报告 | 医药生物 | 2025年6月7日 | 华创医药团队： | | --- | | 首席分析师 郑辰 | | 联席首席分析师 刘浩 | | 医疗器械组组长 李婵娟 | | 中药和流通组组长 高初蕾 | | 分析师 王宏雨 | | 分析师 朱珂琛 | | 执业编号：S0360520110002 | 邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S0360520120002 | 邮箱：liuhao@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360520110004 | 邮箱：lichanjuan@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360524070002 | 邮箱：gaochulei@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360523080006 | 邮箱：wanghongyu@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360524070007 | 邮箱：zhukechen@hcyjs.com | 华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈 · 第129期 痛风用药蓝海大市场，关注在研新药进展 本周专题联系人：朱珂琛 本报告由华 ...

www.hczq.com 证券研究报告 | 医药生物 | 2025年6月7日 华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈 · 第129期 痛风用药蓝海大市场，关注在研新药进展 本周专题联系人：朱珂琛 | 华创医药团队： | | --- | | 首席分析师 郑辰 | | 联席首席分析师 刘浩 | | 医疗器械组组长 李婵娟 | | 中药和流通组组长 高初蕾 | | 分析师 王宏雨 | | 分析师 朱珂琛 | | 执业编号：S0360520110002 | 邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S0360520120002 | 邮箱：liuhao@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360520110004 | 邮箱：lichanjuan@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360524070002 | 邮箱：gaochulei@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360523080006 | 邮箱：wanghongyu@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360524070007 | 邮箱：zhukechen@hcyjs.com | 本报告由华 ...

综合资金缺口看，刚性因素中，6 月一般存款增长冻结的准备金规模或在 2256 亿元附近，货币发行及非金融机构存款或小幅消耗流动性 1152 亿元左右；工 具到期方面，1.2 万亿的买断式逆回购到期，6 月已前置操作 1 万亿，关注后 续是否有"加场"操作，MLF 到期量在 1820 亿元，规模相对有限，若月末资 金压力增大，或依旧是延续超额续作的思路。财政因素中，6 月财政支出有所 加大，但或主要体现在季末，叠加政府债券发行规模不小，政府存款对于流动 性的补充或在 4000 亿元附近，略低于去年水平。合计 6 月流动性缺口在 1.4 万亿附近，考虑 1 万亿买断式逆回购已经投放，整体资金缺口压力相对有限。 跨半年央行多以呵护为主，预计资金大幅收敛的风险相对可控。6 月初 DR007 中枢较利率的偏离度在 15bp 附近，DR001 接近 1.4%水平，买断式逆回购前置 操作，整体有利于稳定资金预期。从历史情况看，以往 6 月除 2020 年处于货 币政策收紧区间，资金价格明显走高；以及 2019 年 6 月包商银行接管事件爆 发后，央行为维稳大量投放流动性，DR007 资金价格有所下行外，其余年份 DR007 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Huamao Technology (603306) [1] Core Views - The acquisition plan exceeds expectations, with Huamao Technology's major shareholder subscribing to supporting funds, demonstrating confidence in the company's performance [1] - The company plans to acquire the remaining equity of Fuchuang Youyue, increasing its ownership from 42.16% to 100% [1] - Fuchuang Youyue is expected to achieve a net profit of 0.78 billion yuan from January to April 2025 [1] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 2,213 million, 2,908 million, 3,494 million, and 4,186 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.7%, 31.4%, 20.2%, and 19.8% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 277 million, 590 million, 748 million, and 934 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 14.6%, 112.7%, 26.8%, and 24.8% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected at 0.84, 1.79, 2.27, and 2.84 yuan for 2024A to 2027E [3] - The target price is set at 51.28 yuan, with the current price at 40.15 yuan [4] Business Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic automotive passive safety market, with significant overseas expansion plans [8] - The global airbag market exceeds 10 billion USD, and the increasing configuration rate of airbags per vehicle is expected to drive market growth [8] - The company has established a new base in Vietnam, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue starting in 2025 [8] - The company is actively investing in the AI sector, with plans to enhance its capabilities in semiconductor and computing power manufacturing [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall operation of industrial bond - issuing entities was under pressure in 2024, with differentiated industry performance. The total operating revenue and net profit of industrial bond entities decreased year - on - year, and the proportion of loss - making enterprises increased. In 2025Q1, the overall operating revenue of industrial bond entities decreased year - on - year, while the net profit remained flat. [2][3] - The economic fundamentals are expected to continue the characteristics of domestic demand support, external demand pressure, and policy escort this year. Attention should be paid to the improvement of the fundamentals of entities under the influence of pro - growth policies. [2][13] - For the real estate industry, it is still in the bottom - building stage. Attention can be paid to the income - mining opportunities of central and state - owned enterprise real estate bonds with an implied rating of AA and above within 1 - 2 years. [4] - For the coal industry, there is downward pressure on the industry's prosperity. Short - term medium - and high - grade varieties can be focused on, and institutions with higher income requirements can appropriately invest in 1 - 2y varieties of coal enterprises with an implied rating of AA. [5] - For the steel industry, the problem of over - supply is still serious. Caution should be exercised when investing in lower - quality entities, and 1 - 2yAA + varieties can be focused on. [6] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. How Did the Annual Reports and Q1 Reports of Each Industry Perform? 3.1.1. Overall Situation Analysis: The Overall Profitability Declined - In 2024, the total operating revenue and net profit of industrial bond entities decreased year - on - year, and the proportion of loss - making enterprises increased from 18% in 2023 to 21% in 2024. [13][14] - In 2025Q1, the overall operating revenue of industrial bond entities decreased by 2% year - on - year, while the net profit remained flat. [15] 3.1.2. Industry Performance: A Minority of Industries Had Positive Revenue and Net Profit Growth, and Most Industries Had Positive Growth in Operating Net Cash Flow - In 2024, about one - third of industries had positive revenue growth, and about 40% of industries had positive net profit growth. Nearly half of the industries had an increase in asset - liability ratio, and about 60% of industries had positive growth in operating net cash flow. [3] - Industries with revenue growth of over 5% in 2024 included non - ferrous metals, electronics, etc.; industries with a decline of over 5% included coal, steel, etc. [20] 3.1.3. Situations of Continuously Loss - making and Turnaround Entities - There were 79 bond - issuing industrial entities with net profit losses for 3 consecutive years or more, mainly distributed in transportation, real estate, etc. [36] - There were 20 bond - issuing industrial entities that had net profit losses for 2 consecutive years or more and turned profitable in 2024, mainly in public utilities, social services, etc. [39] 3.2. Financial Analysis of Key Industries: Real Estate, Coal, and Steel 3.2.1. Real Estate Industry: The Industry Is Still in the Bottom - building Stage, and Attention Should Be Paid to the Investment Opportunities of Central and State - owned Enterprises within 1 - 2 Years - **Fundamentals**: Pro - real - estate policies have been actively implemented, and the effect of destocking policies is gradually emerging, but the industry's prosperity is still low. [41] - **Financial Indicator Performance**: The profitability is under continuous pressure, the operating net cash flow is stable, the gaps in investment and financing net cash flows are narrowing, the median asset - liability ratio has decreased slightly, and the short - term solvency has declined. [4][50][51] - **Investment Strategy**: Attention can be paid to the income - mining opportunities of central and state - owned enterprise real estate bonds with an implied rating of AA and above within 1 - 2 years. Some 1 - year central and state - owned enterprise real estate bonds with an implied rating of AA and AA + have yields ranging from 2.2% to 2.7%. [4][61] 3.2.2. Coal Industry: There Is Downward Pressure on the Industry's Prosperity, and Attention Should Be Continuously Paid. Currently, Appropriate Investment in Lower - Grade Entities Can Be Made - **Fundamentals**: Since last year, there has been downward pressure on the coal industry's prosperity. Supply is sufficient but demand is weak, and coal prices have fluctuated downward. There may still be some downward pressure on coal prices this year. [5][63] - **Financial Indicator Performance**: The overall profitability has declined, the operating net cash flow has shrunk, the gap in investment cash flow has widened, the gap in financing cash flow has narrowed, the median asset - liability ratio has decreased, and the short - term solvency has declined. [5][68][71] - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term medium - and high - grade varieties can be focused on. Institutions with higher income requirements can appropriately invest in 1 - 2y varieties of coal enterprises with an implied rating of AA, and medium - and high - grade entities can extend the duration to 3y. [5][77] 3.2.3. Steel Industry: The Problem of Over - Supply in the Industry Is Still Serious. Caution Should Be Exercised When Investing in Lower - Quality Entities - **Fundamentals**: Since 2024, the steel industry has been in the bottom - exploring stage. Although the pro - growth policies have slightly improved the industry's prosperity, the sustainability is weak. The problem of over - supply is still serious. [6] - **Financial Indicator Performance**: The profitability has been under continuous pressure, with a marginal improvement in Q1. The operating net cash flow has shrunk, the gap in investment net cash flow has widened, the financing net cash flow has turned positive, the median asset - liability ratio has increased, and the short - term solvency has slightly declined. [6] - **Investment Strategy**: Caution should be exercised when investing in lower - quality entities. 1 - 2yAA + varieties can be focused on. [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Huamao Technology (603306) [1] Core Views - The acquisition plan exceeds expectations, with Huamao Technology's major shareholder subscribing to supporting funds, demonstrating confidence in the company's performance [1] - The company plans to acquire the remaining equity of Fuchuang Youyue, increasing its stake from 42.16% to 100%, with expected net profit of 0.78 billion yuan from Fuchuang Youyue in the first four months of 2025 [1] - The company is actively expanding its presence in the automotive passive safety market and accelerating overseas expansion, with significant revenue contributions expected from its new manufacturing base in Vietnam [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2,213 million yuan in 2024 to 4,186 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.8% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 277 million yuan in 2024 to 934 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 24.8% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.84 yuan in 2024 to 2.84 yuan in 2027 [3] - The target price for the stock is set at 51.28 yuan, indicating a potential upside from the current price of 40.15 yuan [4] Business Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic automotive passive safety sector, with plans to leverage its overseas production capacity to capture more market share [8] - The report highlights the growing demand for AI-related infrastructure, with Huamao Technology's acquisition of Fuchuang Youyue aimed at establishing a second growth curve in the AI sector [8] - The company is expected to continue investing in semiconductor and computing manufacturing, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [8]

❖ 核心观点：综合考虑关税不确定性下出口主要矛盾、数据可得性、跟踪及时性 等因素后，我们构建出口 6 大类别、16 大指标高频跟踪框架（图 1），这些指 标目前显示的出口叙事是：4 月美国新增关税对需求的压制似乎逐渐体现在 5 月出口数据上，用于跟踪出口"量"的主要高频指标均边际走弱。此外，5 月 12 日，中美签署日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明后，市场预期的"抢出口"潮目前 只从运价指标（北美航线运价暴涨）以及美国 Markit 制造业 PMI 新订单和 采购库存指数上看到一些端倪，出口"量"的高频似乎还看不到有"抢出口" 的迹象。 ❖ 一、把握关税不确定性对出口冲击的核心矛盾 特朗普关税反复无常，静态估算关税对中国整体出口冲击，误差可能较大。因 此，对市场而言更重要的可能是，从宏观层面把握关税对出口传导路径的核心 矛盾，抓住影响核心矛盾的关键变量，以及从客观高频或者同步指标层面密切 跟踪关键变量的变化。本文旨在构建一个关税不确定性背景下更加实用的出口 高频跟踪框架。 ❖ 二、关税不确定性下的出口高频跟踪框架 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 不止是"出口"——中国出口研判进阶手册 （一）如何跟踪全球贸易需求 ...