[Table_Summary] 核心观点： 盈利预测： | [Table_Finance] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 2604 | 2889 | 3200 | 3687 | 4205 | | 增长率（ % ） | 15.9% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 15.2% | 14.0% | | EBITDA（百万元） | 659 | 709 | 849 | 1015 | 1183 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 184 | 199 | 330 | 406 | 496 | | 增长率（ % ） | 1.0% | 8.4% | 65.6% | 22.8% | 22.2% | | EPS（元/股） | 0.32 | 0.35 | 0.57 | 0.70 | 0.85 | | 市盈率（P/E） | 52.44 | 42.89 | 32.58 | 26.53 | 21.71 | | ROE（%） | 5.3% | 5.5% | 9.6% | 11.0% | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 61.72 CNY and a fair value of 71.30 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to see profit improvement in Q4, driven by the effects of the "old-for-new" policy [1]. - The company anticipates a decline in net profit for 2024, estimated between 2.58 billion to 2.88 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5% to 15% [7]. - The company is implementing a "big home" strategy to counteract the challenges posed by a sluggish real estate market and changing industry dynamics [7]. Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to be 19.783 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 13.2% from 2023 [2]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from 4.141 billion CNY in 2024 to 4.301 billion CNY in 2025 [2]. - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 2.742 billion CNY, a decline of 9.7% compared to 2023 [2]. - The company’s EPS is expected to be 4.50 CNY in 2024, with a projected increase to 4.75 CNY in 2025 [2]. Profitability and Efficiency - The gross margin for the company improved to 35.54% in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of approximately 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The net profit margin is projected to be 14.63%, up by about 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 14.0% in 2024, decreasing slightly from 16.8% in 2023 [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company aims to enhance its market share through category and channel expansion, leveraging its scale advantages [7]. - The anticipated recovery in the home consumption market is expected to be supported by a series of consumption promotion policies and new national subsidies in 2025 [7]. - The company maintains its leading position in the custom home furnishing sector while innovating its business model [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 23.09 CNY and a reasonable value of 26.98 CNY [2]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's Q4 performance has reached a bottom, and there is potential for earnings elasticity to be released in the future. The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in wedding demand and contributions from new store openings in 2025 [6][14]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 2,583 million CNY in 2024 to 4,016 million CNY in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.5%, 28.3%, and 21.2% respectively [6][11]. - The EBITDA is expected to increase from 491 million CNY in 2024 to 917 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a positive trend in operational efficiency [6][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline to 78 million CNY in 2024, followed by a significant recovery to 251 million CNY in 2025 and 397 million CNY in 2026 [6][11]. Business Segments - **Dining and Accommodation**: Revenue is expected to grow from 2,076 million CNY in 2025 to 3,237 million CNY in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.5% [7][11]. - **Food Segment**: This segment is projected to grow significantly, with revenues expected to reach 488 million CNY by 2026, reflecting a stable gross margin [8][11]. - **Other Services**: Revenue from banquet services is expected to stabilize, with a slight decline in 2024 followed by growth in subsequent years [8][11]. Cost Structure - The report anticipates an increase in sales and management expenses due to the expansion of the food business and new store openings, with sales expense ratios expected to peak in 2024 before declining [9][12]. - Financial expenses are projected to rise in the short term due to increased capital expenditures but are expected to normalize as new stores begin to generate cash flow [9][12]. Competitive Position - The company operates in a high-barrier banquet segment with limited competition, which is expected to provide resilience in uncertain consumer environments. The company has established a strong brand presence and operational expertise in its target markets [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a current price of 9.70 CNY and a fair value of 11.09 CNY [2]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a performance turnaround due to the successful launch of new games, particularly "Zhu Xian World," which generated over 400 million CNY in its first 30 days post-launch [9][19]. - The company is undergoing a transformation and restructuring of its product line, which has led to several impairments affecting its 2024 performance [9]. - The anticipated release of the new game "Yihuan" in 2025 is expected to significantly contribute to the company's revenue, with a focus on optimizing management and reducing costs [9][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Game Market Overview - The mobile game market in China is projected to reach 238.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.01% [14]. - The client game market is expected to generate 67.98 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a 2.56% increase [14]. 2. Organizational Optimization - The company has initiated significant personnel reductions to lower management and R&D costs, which were the highest among A-share game companies in 2023, totaling 2.9 billion CNY [25][27]. - The company aims to streamline its product offerings and focus on core projects, which is expected to lead to a decrease in overall expenses [27][33]. 3. New Game Performance - "Zhu Xian World" has been well-received, and its performance is expected to stabilize the company's revenue streams [19]. - The upcoming game "Yihuan" has garnered significant attention, with high user engagement metrics indicating strong potential for success upon release [36]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company forecasts revenues of 55.13 billion CNY in 2024, with a projected net loss of 12.31 billion CNY, followed by a recovery in 2025 with a profit of 8.07 billion CNY [44]. - The report suggests a valuation based on a 14x PE ratio for 2026, leading to a fair value estimate of 11.09 CNY per share [9][44].

全年顺利收官，回款历史新高 [Table_Summary] 核心观点 [Table_Page] 公告点评|饮料乳品 证券研究报告 | [Table_Title] 东鹏饮料（605499.SH） | | --- | 盈利预测： | Table_Invest] [公司评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格 | 246.79 元 | | 合理价值 | 302.98 元 | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-20 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -2% 23% 48% 72% 97% 122% 01/24 03/24 05/24 07/24 09/24 11/24 01/25 东鹏饮料 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]符蓉 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120002 | | | 021-38003552 | | | furong@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 郝宇新 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120010 | | | 021-38003553 | | ...

[Table_Page] 公司深度研究|计算机 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 中望软件（688083.SH） 格局预期差叠加 3D CAD 成熟有望驱动估值提升 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | 盈利预测： | | --- | | [Table_Finance] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 601 | 828 | 918 | 1092 | 1343 | | 增长率（ % ） | -2.9% | 37.7% | 10.9% | 19.0% | 22.9% | | EBITDA（百万元） | -12 | 47 | 141 | 211 | 286 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 6 | 61 | 83 | 122 | 190 | | 增长率（ ） % | -96.7% | 922.8% | 34.5% | 47.3% | 56.4% | | EPS（元/股） | 0.05 | 0.51 | 0.68 | 1.00 | 1.57 | ...

[Table_Page] 公告点评|航海装备Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 中国动力（600482.SH） [公司评级 Table_Invest] 增持 当前价格 23.00 元 合理价值 28.76 元 前次评级 增持 报告日期 2025-01-20 船用发动机龙头业绩高增，"制造+服务"模式转型可期 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 盈利预测： | [Table_Finance] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 38280 | 45103 | 51338 | 59966 | 69820 | | 增长率（ % ） | 10.4% | 17.8% | 13.8% | 16.8% | 16.4% | | EBITDA（百万元） | 1537 | 2059 | 3840 | 5708 | 7813 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 336 | 779 | 1288 | 2159 | 3202 | | 增长率（ % ） | -47.1% ...

Xml Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|家用电器 证券研究报告 家用电器行业 [Table_Title] 12 月内销同比高增，外销延续较好增长 [Table_G rade] 行业评级 持有 前次评级 持有 报告日期 2025-01-19 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [Table_Author] 分析师： 曾婵 SAC 执证号：S0260517050002 SFC CE No. BNV293 0755-82771936 zengchan@gf.com.cn 分析师： 陈尧 -4% 5% 14% 22% 31% 40% 01/24 03/24 06/24 08/24 11/24 01/25 家用电器 沪深300 | SAC 执证号：S0260524010003 | | --- | 021-38003786 shchenyao@gf.com.cn 请注意，陈尧并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_DocReport] 相关研究： | 家用电器行业:25 年政策落 | 2025-01-08 | ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|纺织制造 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 纺织制造行业 纺织服装与轻工行业数据周报 1.13-1.17 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-20 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [Table_Author] 分析师： 糜韩杰 SAC 执证号：S0260516020001 SFC CE No. BPH764 021-38003650 mihanjie@gf.com.cn 分析师： 曹倩雯 SAC 执证号：S0260520110002 021-38003621 caoqianwen@gf.com.cn 分析师： 左琴琴 SAC 执证号：S0260521050001 SFC CE No. BSE791 021-38003540 zuoqinqin@gf.com.cn 分析师： 张雨露 SAC 执证号：S0260518110003 SFC CE No. BNU523 021-38003692 zhangyulu@gf.co ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|传媒 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 传媒行业 豆包发布实时语音大模型，看好字节产业链+陪伴类应用体验提升 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-20 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -20% -8% 4% 16% 28% 40% 01/24 04/24 06/24 08/24 11/24 01/25 传媒 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]旷实 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260517030002 | | | SFC CE No. BNV294 | | | 010-59136610 | | | kuangshi@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 叶敏婷 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260519110001 | | | 021-38003665 | | | yeminting@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 章驰 | ...