[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/食品 证券研究报告 农夫山泉（9633.HK）年度报告 2025 年 03 月 26 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | 3[Table_StockInfo 月 26 日收盘价（HKD] ） | 33.70 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（HKD） | 32.00-39.50 | | 总股本（亿股） | 112.46 | 总市值/流通市值（亿 HKD） 《继续看好茶饮料业务高增长及未来盈利 能 力持续向上》2024.01.18 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] 恒生指数对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅（%） 9.05 2.65 6.52 相对涨幅（%） 9.62 -13.45 -11.85 资料来源：海通证券研究所 逆境中收入平稳，盈利维持高水平，期待 25 年包装水复苏 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 主要财务数据及预测 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《农夫山泉（9633）24 年半年报点评：短期 网络事件致包装水业务承压，茶饮料继续高增 驱动整体业绩稳健 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][9] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's revenue growth has slowed down in the third quarter, but it continues to maintain strong profitability [3][9] - The company is advancing its "big single product" strategy, focusing on health food development, particularly in fish products, which have shown robust growth [7][9] - The company has successfully expanded its international sales, achieving a 90.05% year-on-year growth in overseas revenue [9] Financial Data and Forecast - The company achieved a revenue of 24.12 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.79%, with a net profit of 2.91 billion yuan, up 39.01% year-on-year [7][9] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 28.34 billion yuan, 33.17 billion yuan, and 39.07 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.35 billion yuan, 4.20 billion yuan, and 5.21 billion yuan [9][13] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 30.5% in 2024 to 31.6% by 2027 [6][13] Product Performance - Fish products generated revenue of 15.33 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 18.76% year-on-year, maintaining the leading position in the leisure fish product sector [7][9] - The company has developed a strong product matrix including six major health product series, with significant growth in quail eggs and meat products as well [7][9] Channel Development - The company has achieved a 22.58% year-on-year growth in offline sales, totaling 20.21 billion yuan, while online sales faced a decline of 6.15% [8][9] - The number of distributors increased from 3,057 to 3,406, indicating a robust expansion in distribution channels [8][9] International Strategy - The company has expanded its international trade channels, exporting to nearly 40 countries and regions, with plans for further overseas market development [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][8][9] Core Viewpoints - The company's cash levels are continuously improving, and its business development is focusing on quality [3][8] - The company reported a revenue of 69.70 billion yuan for 2024, which is approximately flat year-on-year, with non-related party revenue increasing by 5.63% to 68.02 billion yuan [9][10] - The company is expected to gradually re-enter a growth phase as the macroeconomic environment stabilizes [8][9] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 69.70 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.6% from 2023 [7][11] - Net loss for 2024 is estimated at 4.51 billion yuan, an increase in loss of approximately 3.71% year-on-year [9][10] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 21.9%, down from 23.8% in 2023 [7][10] - **Segment Performance**: - Property management and operation services revenue is projected at 63.80 billion yuan, a growth of 3.6% year-on-year, accounting for 91.5% of total revenue [10][11] - Non-owner value-added services revenue is expected to decline significantly by 61.0% to 1.47 billion yuan [10][11] - Community life services revenue is projected at 4.43 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year [10][11] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecast**: - EPS for 2025 is projected to be 0.13 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio estimated between 12-15 times, leading to a target price range of 1.58-1.98 yuan [8][9][10] Market Performance - The company's stock price has fluctuated between 1.44 and 3.18 Hong Kong dollars over the past 52 weeks, with a current price of 1.68 Hong Kong dollars [2][6] - The company has a total market capitalization of 51 billion Hong Kong dollars [2][6]

分析师:曹君豪 Tel:(021)23185657 分析师:郑雅斌 Tel:(021)23219395 Email:zhengyb@haitong.com 证书:S0850511040004 [Table_MainInfo] 金融工程研究 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《大额买入与资金流向跟踪 （20250317-20250321）》2025.03.24 《小盘 50 组合维持强势表现——风格 Smart beta 组 合 跟 踪 周 报 （2025.03.17-2025.03.21）》2025.03.24 《A 股下周恐难打破震荡格局——量化择 时 和拥 挤度 预警周 报（ 20250323 ）》 2025.03.23 Email:cjh13945@haitong.com 证书:S0850524010001 [Table_AuthorInfo] ⚫ 固收+产品业绩跟踪。截至 2025.03.21，全市场共有 1158 只固收+基金，规模合 计 15694.60 亿元。上周（2025.03.17-2025.03.21，下同）共发行 5 只新产品。 混 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6][10]. Core Views - The company's profitability has improved due to price increases and declining costs, with expectations for revenue acceleration in 2025 [6][10]. - The beverage segment, particularly tea drinks, continues to show strong momentum, contributing significantly to overall profitability [8][10]. - The company is focused on enhancing its core products, optimizing gross margin structure, and innovating product offerings to meet changing consumer trends [9][10]. Financial Summary - Main revenue for 2023 is projected at 80,418 million, with a year-on-year growth of 2% [7]. - Net profit for 2023 is expected to be 3,117 million, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 18% [7]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve to 33.10% in 2024, up from 30.42% in 2023 [7]. - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 37.45 billion for 2024, with a payout ratio of 100% [8]. Segment Performance - The beverage business achieved revenue of 516.21 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [8]. - The tea beverage segment generated revenue of 217 billion, marking an 8.2% increase year-on-year [8]. - The instant noodle segment reported revenue of 284.14 billion, a slight decline of 1.3% year-on-year, but with improved gross margin [8][9]. Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 4,239 million, 4,694 million, and 5,154 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.75, 0.83, and 0.91 [10]. - The report suggests a PE valuation range of 18-22 times for 2025, translating to a per-share value range of 13.50-16.50 HKD [10].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息服务 证券研究报告 能科科技（603859）公司跟踪报告 2025 年 03 月 26 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | 03[Table_StockInfo 月 25日收盘价（元）] | 32.89 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 13.28-44.15 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 245/245 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 8048/8048 | | 相关研究 | | 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -51.67% -32.67% -13.67% 5.33% 24.33% 43.33% 2024/3 2024/6 2024/9 2024/12 能科科技 海通综指 沪深 300 对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅（%） -2.3 -8.3 7.8 相对涨幅（%） -2.4 -10.9 9.1 资料来源：海通证券研究所 分析师:杨林 Tel:(021)23183969 Email:yl11036@haitong.com 证书:S08505170 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/机械工业/新能源板块 证券研究报告 双林股份（300100）公司研究报告 2025 年 03 月 26 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 无评级 首次 覆盖 股票数据 | 03[Table_StockInfo 月 25 日收盘价（元）] | 62.31 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 7.98-77.77 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 401/387 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 24972/24118 | 市场表现 风险提示。原材料价格波动，竞争加剧，人形机器人&丝杠业务开拓不及预期。 主要财务数据及预测 | [Table_FinanceInfo] | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 4185 | 4139 | 4925 | 5458 | 5923 | | (+/-)YoY(%) | 13.7% | -1.1% | 19.0% | 10.8% | ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/医药与健康护理 证券研究报告 诺泰生物（688076）公司研究报告 2025 年 03 月 26 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 首次 覆盖 股票数据 | 03[Table_StockInfo 月 25 日收盘价（元）] | 57.69 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 47.48-81.50 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 220/220 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 12679/12679 | | 相关研究 | | 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -15.59% -3.59% 8.41% 20.41% 32.41% 2024/3 2024/6 2024/9 2024/12 诺泰生物 海通综指 沪深 300 对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅（%） 17.3 18.9 11.5 相对涨幅（%） 17.1 16.3 12.8 资料来源：海通证券研究所 分析师 [Table_AuthorInfo] :贺文斌 Tel:(010)68067998 Email:hwb10850@h ...

[Table_MainInfo] 每日报告精选 证券研究报告 最新研究与资讯 2025 年 03 月 26 日 | | | | 名称 | 日涨跌% | 周涨跌% | 年涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 海通风格指数 | | | | | 大盘 100 | 0.76 | -0.16 | -3.13 | | 小盘 200 | -1.11 | -3.63 | 7.92 | | 表现最好前五行业 | | | | | 有色金属 | 1.35 | 0.25 | 13.16 | | 旅游服务 | 1.34 | -0.42 | -2.02 | | 家电器具 | 1.05 | -0.53 | 2.05 | | 金融指数 | 0.73 | -0.68 | -0.79 | | 煤炭指数 | 0.72 | 0.06 | -11.28 | | 表现最差前五行业 | | | | | 综合行业 | -1.70 | -2.79 | -3.80 | | 信息服务 | -1.61 | -6.01 | 7.13 | | 造纸指数 | -1.60 | -4.10 | -2.15 | | 纺织服装 | -1.53 | ...