[Table_MainInfo] 每日报告精选 证券研究报告 最新研究与资讯 2025 年 03 月 26 日 | | | | 名称 | 日涨跌% | 周涨跌% | 年涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 海通风格指数 | | | | | 大盘 100 | 0.76 | -0.16 | -3.13 | | 小盘 200 | -1.11 | -3.63 | 7.92 | | 表现最好前五行业 | | | | | 有色金属 | 1.35 | 0.25 | 13.16 | | 旅游服务 | 1.34 | -0.42 | -2.02 | | 家电器具 | 1.05 | -0.53 | 2.05 | | 金融指数 | 0.73 | -0.68 | -0.79 | | 煤炭指数 | 0.72 | 0.06 | -11.28 | | 表现最差前五行业 | | | | | 综合行业 | -1.70 | -2.79 | -3.80 | | 信息服务 | -1.61 | -6.01 | 7.13 | | 造纸指数 | -1.60 | -4.10 | -2.15 | | 纺织服装 | -1.53 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 45.648 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.03%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.072 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 26.77% [7] - The company has successfully launched new projects, including a 100,000-ton ethanolamine production facility, enhancing its downstream chemical product layout and forming a complete industrial chain for ethylene oxide derivatives [7] - The company is increasing its R&D investment, with plans to invest 10 billion yuan in the coming years to build a global "1+N" chemical new materials R&D innovation platform [7] - The establishment of a global company aims to accelerate the expansion into overseas markets, with products already recognized by customers in over 160 countries [7] - Profit forecasts for the company indicate net profits of 7.449 billion yuan, 11.059 billion yuan, and 12.640 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.21 yuan, 3.28 yuan, and 3.75 yuan [7] Financial Data and Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 60 billion yuan in 2026 and 73.211 billion yuan in 2027, with a net profit of 11.059 billion yuan in 2026 and 12.640 billion yuan in 2027 [6][10] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 23.6% in 2024 to 27.6% in 2026, while the net asset return rate is projected to be 22.6% in 2026 [6][10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to grow from 1.80 yuan in 2024 to 3.75 yuan in 2027 [6][10]

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/汽车与零配件/汽车 证券研究报告 比亚迪（002594）公司年报点评 2025 年 03 月 26 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | 03[Table_StockInfo 月 25日收盘价（元）] | 369.59 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 201.17-403.40 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 3039/1162 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 1123208/883399 | 相关研究 [Table_QuoteInfo] -13.12% 6.88% 26.88% 46.88% 66.88% 2024/3 2024/6 2024/9 2024/12 比亚迪 海通综指 | 沪深 300 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅（%） | -0.8 | 32.4 | 29.3 | | 相对涨幅（%） | -1.0 | 29.8 | 30.6 | | 资料来源：海通证券研究所 | | | | 分析师 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/商业贸易 证券研究报告 行业信息点评 2025 年 03 月 25 日 Tel:(021)23154125 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -11.85% -1.56% 8.74% 19.04% 29.33% 39.63% 2024/3 2024/6 2024/9 2024/12 商业贸易 海通综指 Email:lhk11523@haitong.com 资料来源：海通证券研究所 证书:S0850517040002 相关研究 | [Table_ReportInfo] 《1-2 月社零增 4%稳中向好，促消费政 | | --- | | 策出台提振信心》2025.03.18 | | 《全年维度看珠宝板块投资机会》 | | 2025.03.17 | | 《生育补贴政策密集出台，看好母婴相关 | | 产业链》2025.03.16 | 分析师:李宏科 零售&社服行业 2025 年一季报前瞻 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 （1）黄金珠宝：1-2M25 限额以上金银珠宝零售额同比+5.4%，结束 24 年 4 月以 来的同比下滑趋势； ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - In February 2025, European new energy vehicle (NEV) sales reached 174,462 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.1% and a month-on-month increase of 2.1% [2][4] - In the United States, NEV sales in February 2025 were 120,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.8% [2][3] - Emerging markets saw NEV sales of 78,000 units in January 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.3% but a month-on-month decrease of 27.6% [2][3] Summary by Region Europe - February 2025 NEV sales: 174,462 units, year-on-year +19.1%, month-on-month +2.1% [4][5] - Cumulative sales for January-February 2025: 156,000 units, year-on-year -45.3% [4] - February 2025 penetration rate: 24.0%, year-on-year +4.3 percentage points [4][5] United States - February 2025 NEV sales: 120,000 units, year-on-year +4.9%, month-on-month +0.8% [2][3] - Cumulative sales for January-February 2025: 239,000 units, year-on-year +8.2% [2] - February 2025 penetration rate: 9.6%, year-on-year +0.7 percentage points [2] Emerging Markets - January 2025 NEV sales: 78,000 units, year-on-year +22.3%, month-on-month -27.6% [2][3] - Penetration rate: 5.1%, year-on-year +0.9 percentage points [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Leap Motor, BYD, CATL, EVE Energy, Guoxuan High-Tech, Zhongxin Aviation, Funeng Technology, Zhongwei Co., Huayou Cobalt, Greeenme, Betterray, New Era, and Xingyuan Material, as they are expected to benefit from the growth in overseas markets [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company is expected to significantly enhance its profitability in 2024 driven by its professional sports segment, with a retail transformation for its main brand commencing in 2025 [5][6] - The company plans to recover 400-500 distribution rights for its stores, focusing on direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies to optimize retail channel structure and improve operational efficiency [6][8] Financial Data and Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from 13,577 million HKD in 2024 to 17,005 million HKD by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.86% [6][9] - Net profit is expected to increase from 1,238 million HKD in 2024 to 1,607 million HKD in 2027, with a net profit margin improvement from 9.1% to 9.5% over the same period [6][9] - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to rise from 43.2% in 2024 to 44.7% in 2027, indicating improved cost management and pricing power [6][9] Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 5.27 HKD on March 24, 2025, with a market capitalization of 14,622 million HKD [2][5] - The stock has experienced a price fluctuation range between 3.70 HKD and 7.13 HKD over the past year [2] Strategic Developments - The company has completed a strategic divestment of its fashion sports business, allowing it to focus on running and optimizing operations in the professional sports segment [6][8] - The company is expanding its product offerings and enhancing its brand strategy, particularly in high-end urban areas, with plans for new flagship and concept stores [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][13]. Core Views - The core local business segment's profit exceeded expectations, and Keeta is building a second growth curve [6][13]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 88.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%, and adjusted EBITDA of 11.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 207.7% [6][10]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents of 70.8 billion yuan [6][12]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company is expanding its multi-category supply and increasing support for merchants in its takeaway and instant retail businesses. New models like "Pin Hao Fan" and "Brand Satellite Stores" are being introduced to help merchants increase sales and attract new customers [7]. - The company launched a 1 billion yuan "Merchant Support Plan" in Q4 2024 to optimize merchant efficiency and innovation through cash and subsidies [7]. Performance Metrics - The core local business generated revenue of 65.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, with operating profit of 12.9 billion yuan, up 60.9%, and an operating margin of 19.7% [9]. - New business revenue in Q4 2024 was 22.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, with operating losses narrowing to 2.2 billion yuan, a 55.0% improvement [9]. Financial Data and Forecasts - The company forecasts revenues of 337.6 billion yuan for 2024, 394.2 billion yuan for 2025, and 455.4 billion yuan for 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.99%, 16.76%, and 15.53% respectively [10]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at 35.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 158.43% [10]. - The estimated reasonable market value for 2025 is between 1.09 trillion and 1.27 trillion Hong Kong dollars, translating to a reasonable share price range of 179 to 209 Hong Kong dollars [13][15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue increase of 20% year-on-year for 2024, reaching 3.868 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 27.5% to 353 million yuan due to goodwill impairment [7][8] - Excluding the impact of goodwill impairment, the core net profit increased by 5.1% year-on-year to 512 million yuan [8] - The overall gross margin decreased from 26.6% in 2023 to 23.3% in 2024, primarily due to a decline in the gross margin of value-added services [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2023: Revenue of 3.224 billion yuan, net profit of 487 million yuan - 2024: Revenue of 3.868 billion yuan (+20% YoY), net profit of 353 million yuan (-27.5% YoY) - 2025E: Revenue of 4.656 billion yuan (+20.4% YoY), net profit of 480 million yuan (+35.9% YoY) [6][13] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: EPS of 0.23 yuan, down 28.1% from 0.32 yuan in 2023 - 2025E: EPS expected to recover to 0.32 yuan [6][13] - **Gross Margin and Return on Equity (ROE)**: - Gross margin for 2024 is 23.3%, down from 26.6% in 2023 - ROE for 2024 is projected at 10.1%, down from 14.1% in 2023 [15] Market Expansion and Management - The company has expanded its management scale, focusing on high-quality market development, signing 85 new projects with a total contract area of 12.95 million square meters [11] - As of December 31, 2024, the company managed projects across 48 cities, with a total contract area of 88.73 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [11] Shareholder Returns - The board proposed a final dividend of 0.078 yuan per share for 2024, leading to a total annual dividend of 0.169 yuan per share, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year [12] - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is 50% based on core net profit [12]

Market Performance - The large-cap index (大盘 100) increased by 0.76% daily but decreased by 0.16% weekly and 3.13% annually[3] - The small-cap index (小盘 200) decreased by 1.11% daily and 3.63% weekly, but increased by 7.92% annually[3] - The best-performing sector was non-ferrous metals, with a daily increase of 1.35% and an annual increase of 13.16%[3] Company Insights - Sinopec (中国石化) reported a revenue of CNY 30,745.62 billion in 2024, a decrease of 4.29% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 503.13 billion, down 16.79%[9] - The fourth quarter saw a net profit of CNY 60.66 billion, down 19.09% year-on-year and 29.00% quarter-on-quarter[9] - Light Technology (莱特光电) is projected to achieve a net profit of CNY 1.67 billion in 2024, with a significant annual growth rate of 116.68%[22] Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China (央行) is expected to lower short-term interest rates, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and supporting economic growth[5] - The MLF operation on March 25, 2025, involved a net injection of CNY 4,500 billion, indicating a shift towards a more streamlined interest rate system[12] Healthcare Sector - By the end of 2024, the basic medical insurance fund's total income is projected to reach CNY 34,809.95 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.91%[15] - The number of insured individuals is expected to reach 1.326 billion, maintaining a coverage rate of 95%[15] - The average hospitalization cost decreased to CNY 8,443.63, with a decline of 8.26% for employees and 4.94% for residents[16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 14.8 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and an adjusted net profit of 624 million yuan, which is a 29.7% increase year-on-year [6][10] - The company added 965 new workshop stores in 2024, with over 90% of the stores being profitable for more than six months [6][10] - The gross margin for 2024 was 25.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, driven by upstream bargaining power and product structure optimization [10] Financial Analysis - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 14.8 billion yuan, with automotive products and services contributing 13.8 billion yuan, a 9.1% increase year-on-year [8] - The revenue from advertising, franchising, and other services was 960 million yuan, showing a slight growth of 0.3% [8] - The company expects revenues for 2025 to reach approximately 16.4 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits projected at 760 million yuan [10][13] Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 18.16 HKD on March 24, with a 52-week price range of 13.84 to 29 HKD [2] - The company has shown a relative performance against the Hang Seng Index, with a 1-month absolute increase of 8.1% and a relative increase of 6.3% [4] Future Outlook - The company aims to maintain its pricing power while improving gross margins through scale advantages in 2025 [6][10] - The penetration rate of the fast repair business among users exceeded 10% in 2024, with certain product categories experiencing over 50% growth [7][10]