Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Synchronize with the Market" rating for the coal industry [1][5][42] Core Viewpoints - The coal supply growth rate has slowed down, with a cumulative production of 1.585 billion tons from January to April 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, but the growth rate is declining [3][13] - Demand is supported by infrastructure investment, with fixed asset investment increasing by 4.0% year-on-year in the same period, while the real estate sector continues to show negative growth [4][17] - Coal imports have shown a negative growth trend, with a cumulative import volume of 15.267 million tons from January to April 2025, down 5.3% year-on-year [24] - Coal prices, particularly for thermal and coking coal, have been under pressure, with prices for Shanxi premium mixed 5500 thermal coal decreasing since the beginning of 2025 [26][38] Summary by Sections Supply Side - The growth rate of raw coal supply has significantly decreased, with April's production at 389 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, marking a substantial decline from the previous month [3][13] Demand Side - The terminal demand from January to April 2025 is supported by infrastructure, with non-electric demand performing better than electric demand. The cumulative growth rate for thermal power is -4.1%, while coking coal and pig iron show positive growth [4][20] Import Coal - The coal import growth rate remains negative, with April's imports at 3.783 million tons, down 16.4% year-on-year [24] Price and Profit Performance - Coal prices have been under pressure, with the average price of Shanxi premium mixed 5500 thermal coal decreasing since the start of 2025 [26][38] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies with strong performance support, particularly those with a small proportion of non-coal business such as Xinjie Energy and Huahua Energy, as well as those with a large proportion like Shaanxi Energy and Electric Power Investment Energy [5][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong growth in revenue and net profit, with a revenue increase of 34.14% year-on-year in 2024 and a net profit increase of 548.49% [4] - The company is a leader in module shipments and has a broad layout in AI modules and solutions, particularly in the 5G sector [4][5] - The company is expanding its edge computing capabilities through industrial intelligence and AI cloud platforms [7][9] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 185.94 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.88 billion yuan [4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 52.21 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.12 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 32.05% and 286.91% respectively [4] - The company forecasts net profits of 8.52 billion yuan, 10.27 billion yuan, and 12.75 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 44.9%, 20.5%, and 24.1% [10] Product and Market Position - The company continues to enhance its product line in the 5G sector, maintaining a leading position in automotive applications [5][6] - The company has established a comprehensive product line for automotive applications, serving over 60 tier 1 suppliers and more than 40 vehicle manufacturers [6] - The company is actively involved in the development of AI solutions, including a large model solution launched in August 2024, which supports various applications such as intelligent Q&A and business consulting [9] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain growth above the industry average due to improving IoT demand and effective cost control following strategic expansion [10] - The company aims to expand its product lines in smart antennas and millimeter-wave antennas, anticipating a surge in downstream demand [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for MINISO (09896.HK) [4][10] Core Views - MINISO's domestic same-store sales are showing improvement, and direct store revenue is growing rapidly. The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 4.427 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, while adjusted net profit was 588 million yuan, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year [4][6][10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of May 23, 2025, the closing price was HKD 42.25, with a year-to-date high of HKD 55.00 and a low of HKD 20.00. The total market capitalization was HKD 52.869 billion [3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, MINISO achieved revenue of 4.427 billion yuan, up 18.9% year-on-year, with an average store count increase of 16.5% [6]. The adjusted net profit was 588 million yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year, primarily due to increased sales and distribution expenses [6][8]. Business Segments - Domestic revenue for MINISO China in Q1 2025 was 2.494 billion yuan, a 9.1% increase year-on-year, while overseas revenue reached 1.592 billion yuan, a 30.3% increase year-on-year. The average store count in overseas markets grew by 24.6% [7][10]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 44.2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. The sales and distribution expense ratio rose to 23.1%, up 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, due to direct investments in overseas stores [8][10]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts revenues of 20.971 billion yuan, 25.331 billion yuan, and 30.011 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.862 billion yuan, 3.482 billion yuan, and 4.119 billion yuan [10][12]. The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.0, 13.9, and 11.8, respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for MINISO (09896.HK) [2] Core Insights - MINISO's domestic same-store sales are showing improvement, and direct store revenue is growing rapidly. The company achieved a revenue of 4.427 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, although adjusted net profit decreased by 4.8% [5][7][11] - The company is focusing on optimizing low-efficiency stores while emphasizing the establishment of flagship stores and IP Land stores to enhance brand strength [8] - The overseas market continues to expand rapidly, with a revenue of 1.592 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.3% [8] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, MINISO's revenue growth exceeded market expectations, driven by a 16.5% year-on-year increase in average store count. The adjusted net profit was 588 million yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year due to rising sales and distribution expenses [7][9] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 44.2%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin overseas direct sales and an optimized product mix [9] - The sales and distribution expense ratio increased to 23.1%, up 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to direct investments in overseas stores [9] Future Outlook - For the years 2025 to 2027, the projected revenues are 20.971 billion yuan, 25.331 billion yuan, and 30.011 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.862 billion yuan, 3.482 billion yuan, and 4.119 billion yuan [11][13] - The report anticipates a continued recovery in domestic same-store sales and improvement in sales performance, particularly in overseas markets like Mexico and the United States [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong growth in revenue and net profit, with a revenue of 185.94 billion yuan in 2024, up 34.14% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.88 billion yuan, up 548.49% year-on-year [4] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 52.21 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.05%, and a net profit of 2.12 billion yuan, up 286.91% year-on-year [4] - The company continues to lead in the module shipment market and has a broad layout in AI modules and solutions [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of May 5, 2025, the closing price is 71.75 yuan, with a total share capital of 2.62 billion shares and a circulating market value of 187.74 billion yuan [3] Business Development - The company is expanding its product line in the 5G module sector and maintaining a leading position in automotive applications, with a diverse range of products for over 60 tier-1 clients and 40 automotive manufacturers [6] - The company has launched the Provecta AI brand for industrial intelligence, focusing on defect detection and automation in various sectors [7] - The ODM business has seen significant growth, with revenue from the ODM segment expected to increase by over 70% year-on-year in 2024 [8] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to maintain growth above the industry average, with projected net profits of 8.52 billion yuan, 10.27 billion yuan, and 12.75 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 44.9%, 20.5%, and 24.1% [10] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 3.26 yuan, 3.93 yuan, and 4.87 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22.0, 18.3, and 14.7 [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In early April, Trump's tariff policy exceeded market expectations, causing bond yields to hit previous lows again. Despite signs of concessions, China still faces high external uncertainties, leading to low - level fluctuations in market interest rates [2][14]. - The Politburo meeting on April 25 emphasized implementing more proactive macro - policies, with potential future reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to maintain liquidity and support the real economy. Monetary policy will remain loose [3][14]. - In April, the central bank significantly increased net MLF投放, indicating support for liquidity. Economic data shows that the economic recovery needs further observation, especially the price level has not improved significantly, suggesting limited demand recovery. External demand decline also adds pressure, requiring policy support [3][14]. - In early April, the 10 - year Treasury bond rate quickly dropped below 1.7% and then fluctuated around 1.65%. It is expected that long - term interest rates will continue to decline, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may fall below 1.6% [3][14]. - According to the model, the implied one - year interest rate cut in the interest rate swap curve in April increased by about 19.27bp compared to March. Market participants' expectations of interest rate cuts have risen significantly. The policy rate is expected to drop by 30 - 40bp this year, corresponding to a 10 - year Treasury bond yield around 1.6% [4][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Viewpoint Outlook - External uncertainty: Trump's tariff policy in early April shocked the market. Although there were signs of concessions later, external uncertainties remain high, resulting in low - level fluctuations in bond market interest rates [2][14]. - Policy orientation: The Politburo meeting emphasized proactive macro - policies, with potential future reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to support the real economy. Monetary policy will remain loose [3][14]. - Capital situation: In April, the central bank's net MLF投放 reached the highest level since January 2024, indicating strong support for liquidity [3][14]. - Economic fundamentals: Economic data shows that the economic recovery needs further observation, especially the price level has not improved significantly, suggesting limited demand recovery. External demand decline also adds pressure, requiring policy support [3][14]. - Interest rate trend: The 10 - year Treasury bond rate dropped below 1.7% in early April and then fluctuated around 1.65%. It is expected to continue to decline and may fall below 1.6% [3][14]. - Interest rate cut expectation: The implied one - year interest rate cut in the interest rate swap curve in April increased by about 19.27bp compared to March. Market participants' expectations of interest rate cuts have risen significantly. The policy rate is expected to drop by 30 - 40bp this year, corresponding to a 10 - year Treasury bond yield around 1.6% [4][15]. 2. Capital Market - Open - market operations: In April, the central bank's open - market capital投放 was 392.27 billion yuan, with a net投放 of 32.08 billion yuan. There were no open - market Treasury bond purchases. The scale of repurchase agreements was 120 billion yuan (70 billion for 3 - month and 50 billion for 6 - month). Treasury cash deposits raised 10 billion yuan and 15 billion yuan matured. MLF投放 was 60 billion yuan, with 10 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net MLF投放 of 50 billion yuan [5][16]. - Interest rates: As of April 30, DR007 was at 1.80%, down 39.02bp from the end of March; R007 was at 1.84%, down 46.34bp from the end of March [18]. - Inter - bank certificates of deposit: In April, 285.124 billion yuan of inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with 247.916 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net financing of 37.208 billion yuan, a decrease of 71.993 billion yuan from the previous month [20]. 3. Interest Rate Market 3.1 Interest - Bearing Bond Primary Market - Overall situation: The overall issuance volume of interest - bearing bonds in the primary market decreased slightly compared to the previous month, and net financing decreased significantly. In April, Treasury bonds were issued at 146.83 billion yuan, with net financing of 26.575 billion yuan; local government bonds were issued at 69.3291 billion yuan, with net financing of 52.8089 billion yuan; policy bank bonds were issued at 60.825 billion yuan, with net financing of - 344 million yuan [24]. 3.2 Interest - Bearing Bond Secondary Market - Yield trend: In April, the yields of Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds generally declined [31]. 4. Credit Market 4.1 Credit Bond Primary Market - Overall situation: The issuance volume of new credit bonds increased significantly compared to the previous month, the repayment volume decreased, and the net financing scale increased significantly. The total issuance volume was 222.1512 billion yuan, the total repayment volume was 176.5422 billion yuan, and the net financing was 45.609 billion yuan [42]. - Urban investment bonds: Urban investment bonds were issued at 35.1555 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 9.1487 billion yuan. The average coupon rate was 2.53%, down 14bp from the previous month [43]. 4.2 Credit Bond Secondary Market - Overall situation: The secondary market of credit bonds fluctuated greatly, the broad - based market yield declined, and the yields of medium - and short - term notes of various credit ratings were at relatively low levels in the past two - year quantiles [47]. - Urban investment bonds: In April, the yields of urban investment bonds of various maturities generally declined. The yields of urban investment bonds of various credit ratings were still at historical lows in the past two - year quantiles. The term spreads showed differentiation, and the credit spreads widened except for the 1 - year maturity [51][52]. - Bank secondary bonds: In April, the yields of bank secondary bonds of various maturities declined synchronously, the term spreads widened, and the credit spreads showed differentiation. The yields of bank secondary bonds of various maturities were still at relatively low levels in the past two - year quantiles [55].

研究早观点 2025 年 5 月 26 日 星期一 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,348.37 | -0.94 | | 深证成指 | 10,132.41 | -0.85 | | 沪深 300 | 3,882.27 | -0.81 | | 中小板指 | 6,376.77 | -0.42 | | 创业板指 | 2,021.50 | -1.18 | | 科创 50 | 980.58 | -1.02 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | | 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 市场走势 【今日要点】 【行业评论】通信：周跟踪（20250512-20250518）-——中美互降对等 关税，自主可控是长期形势 【行业评论】煤炭：煤炭进口数据拆解：25 年 3 月进口负增，进口煤 种结构变化 【公司评论】威孚高科(000581.SZ)：威孚高科 24 年报&25Q1 季报点 评-利润短期承压，加速构建智能电动与工业领域新生态 【 ...

通信 周跟踪（20250512-20250518） 领先大市-A(维持) ——中美互降对等关税，自主可控是长期形势 2025 年 5 月 23 日 行业研究/行业周报 1）中美贸易谈判取得阶段成效，中美互降对等关税利好光模块、铜连接等 出口链。 资料来源：最闻 【山证通信】山西证券通信行业周 【山证通信】北美 CSP 资本开支展 5 月 12 日，中美双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，美方取消了共 计 91%的加征关税，中方也相应取消了 91%的反制关税。并且美方 90 天内暂停 实施 24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停 24%反制关税。在 90 天缓和期内，中 美关税水平已回到特朗普"解放日"前，市场认为这一谈判成果是超预期的，利 好消费电子、AI 算力、家电等出口板块。我们认为光模块、铜连接业绩好，估值 低，叠加机构持仓向主力指数成分千亿，有望迎来修复慢牛行情。此次关税政策 波动前所未有，但也体现出国内光模块企业的竞争力（关税发布后没多久就释放 出豁免政策）以及供应链韧性（国内海外双布局）。未来中美科技博弈的胜负手 还是在 AI，因此算力投资将持续较长时间，光模块（单芯片 IO 带宽持续增加）、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase exceeding 15% relative to the benchmark index [1][7]. Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue reaching 8.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 179.2%, and net profit of 2.84 billion yuan, up 312.3% [1][9]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.05 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 15.2% and a year-on-year increase of 264.1%. The net profit for the same period was 1.57 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 384.5% [2][9]. - The company's gross margin and net margin reached new highs, with Q1 2025 gross margin at 48.7% and net margin at 38.8% [2][9]. Financial Performance - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 4.00 yuan, with a projected EPS of 8.31 yuan for 2025, indicating strong growth potential [9][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 34.1% in 2024 and 42.4% in 2025, showcasing the company's efficient use of equity [9][11]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 5.89 billion yuan, with further increases expected in subsequent years, reaching 9.21 billion yuan by 2027 [7][9]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is benefiting from increased demand for high-speed optical modules, particularly from major North American cloud service providers (CSPs), which are expected to increase capital expenditures by 37% to 305.5 billion USD in 2025 [3][6]. - The company’s production capacity for point-to-point optical modules reached 10.6 million units in 2024, a 24.7% increase from 2023, indicating robust demand [4][6]. - The company is actively investing in research and development, with R&D expenses projected to reach 400 million yuan in 2024, a 201.4% increase year-on-year [6][9]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 29.4 in 2024 to 14.2 in 2025, suggesting that the stock is currently undervalued [9][11]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 10.0 in 2024 to 6.0 in 2025, further indicating potential for price appreciation [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][9]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term profit pressure but is accelerating the construction of a new ecosystem in the smart electric and industrial sectors [2][4]. - The traditional core business of automotive fuel injection systems is facing a decline due to the shift towards electric vehicles, while the intake system business is benefiting from the rapid growth in hybrid vehicle sales [5][6]. - The company is actively expanding into smart electric components and non-automotive sectors, aiming to build a diversified business ecosystem for sustainable growth [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 11.167 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.67%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.660 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.68% [4]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.834 billion yuan, down 2.38% year-on-year, and a net profit of 354 million yuan, down 35.46% [4]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 18.18%, a slight increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 15.38%, a decrease of 1.87 percentage points [6]. Business Segment Performance - The automotive fuel injection system segment generated revenue of 4.645 billion yuan, down 8.52% year-on-year, while the automotive after-treatment system saw revenue of 3.477 billion yuan, up 1.99% [5]. - The intake system business experienced significant growth, with revenue reaching 954 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.93% [5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 11.854 billion yuan, 12.848 billion yuan, and 14.085 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.410 billion yuan, 1.460 billion yuan, and 1.824 billion yuan for the same years [9][11].