公 华福证券 医药流通 2025 年 03 月 24 日 司 研 究 公 司 财 报 点 国药股份（600511.SH） 2024 年报点评：收入增长稳健，利润受子公司影 响有所波动 投资要点： 事件：公司公布 2024 业绩，报告期内公司实现收入 505.97 亿元（+1.81%）， 归母净利润 20 亿元（-6.8%），扣非归母净利润 19.96 亿元（-4.63%）。 其中 Q4 实现收入 125.7 亿元（-4.54%），实现归母净利润 5.19 亿元（-24.1%）， 扣非归母净利润 5.07 亿元（-23.4%）。 分业务看，医药商业增长稳健，工业波动较大。 评 不考虑合并抵消，2024 年公司商品销售（医药商业）业务实现收入 529 亿元（+3.6%），实现毛利率 6.55%（-0.53pct），产品销售（医药工业）业 务实现收入 4.7 亿元（-56.39%），毛利率 34.84%（+1.73pct），仓储物流业 务实现收入 3.94 亿元（+8.4%），毛利率 17.77%（-8.23pct）。 母公司收入增长稳健，部分子公司影响归母净利润。 2024 母公司实现收入 218.08 亿元，同 ...

行 业 研 华福证券 机械设备 2025 年 03 月 22 日 究 荷兰海尔德兰省拟部署小型堆，巴西启动开发 3-5 兆瓦 微型反应堆 投资要点： 清洁安全高效等特点使核电成为促进能源绿色转型的重要力量 相比其他发电方式，核电机组的年发电利用小时数常年保持在 7000 小时以上，位居所有电源之首，而且在生产过程中不排放二氧化 硫、氮氧化物、烟尘和二氧化碳。核电是最清洁、最安全、最高效、 占地面积最小的能源形式之一，在应对全球气候变化、促进能源绿色 转型和保障能源安全方面具有无可比拟的优势和不可或缺的作用。随 着各地对核能的逐渐重视，除了发展核电之外，核能未来将在海水淡 化、核能制氢、医疗防护等方面发挥更大的作用。 华福证券 建议关注 1）佳电股份：产品主氦风机是四代堆-高温气冷堆一回路唯一的 动力设备，子公司哈电动装的核主泵产品在核电业务细分行业处于领 先地位； 证 2）国光电气：公司偏滤器和包层系统是 ITER 项目的关键部件； 券 研 3）兰石重装：覆盖核能上游核燃料系统、中游核电站设备、下游 和乏燃料后处理； 究 4）科新机电：承制了高温气冷堆核电产品，新燃料运输容器实现 替代进口； 荷兰海尔德兰省拟 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [19]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.525 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.34%, and a net profit of 468 million yuan, up 14.63% year-on-year [3][6]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 986 million yuan, a 9.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 163 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 41.7% year-on-year [3][6]. - The company continues to enhance quality and efficiency, leveraging scale and overall synergy in production, which has contributed to resilient operations [5]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from various product lines for 2024 includes: - Color printing packaging: 2.477 billion yuan (down 2.92%) - Plastic soft packaging film: 724 million yuan (up 37.9%) - Aluminum-plated packaging: 58 million yuan (up 31.56%) - Ink business: 155 million yuan (down 0.1%) [5]. - The company’s domestic and international sales were 2.963 billion yuan and 452 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 2.3% and 18.84% [5]. Profitability and Cost Control - The company maintained a gross margin of 23.8% and a net margin of 13.4% for 2024, with improvements in Q4 to 25.9% and 16.7%, respectively [6]. - The company effectively managed expenses, reducing the overall expense ratio to 9.14%, down 0.95 percentage points from the previous year [6]. - A cash dividend of 6.2 yuan per 10 shares was declared, totaling 380 million yuan, which represents 81.18% of the annual net profit, yielding a dividend rate of 5.66% [6]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company expects revenue growth to reach 3.82 billion yuan in 2025, 4.1 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.36 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 7%, and 6%, respectively [6][8]. - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 520 million yuan, 570 million yuan, and 620 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 12%, 10%, and 8% [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark index within the next six months [18]. Core Insights - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance its home decoration design platform, "居然设计家," which has gained significant traction with over 18 million registered designers globally, including more than 15 million overseas [2][3]. - The partnership with 优必选 aims to deploy 500 humanoid robots in retail stores by the end of 2025, enhancing customer shopping experiences and creating new smart consumption scenarios [3]. - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in net profit from 1.02 billion yuan in 2024 to 1.19 billion yuan in 2026, with a projected growth rate of 8% in both 2025 and 2026 [4]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from 13.74 billion yuan in 2024 to 16.60 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% [4]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 1.02 billion yuan, with a significant decrease of 21.4% year-on-year, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [4]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is expected to be 26x in 2025, indicating a premium valuation due to its leading position in the smart home industry [4]. Business Operations - The "居然设计家" platform utilizes advanced technologies such as AI, 3D modeling, and big data to provide personalized design solutions, aiming to integrate the entire home decoration process from design to supply chain and construction delivery [3]. - The company has established a cross-platform collaboration engine, allowing designers to work simultaneously on projects, enhancing efficiency and creativity [3].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [5]. Core Insights - The industrial robot market is experiencing stable growth, laying a foundation for humanoid robots, with projections indicating a significant increase in market size and sales volume by 2030 [3][18]. - The humanoid robot market is expected to reach a size of $15 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 56% from 2024 to 2030 [3][27]. - The report highlights the importance of rare earth permanent magnets in the manufacturing of robot joints, suggesting that the magnetic materials and components sector could open up a market worth billions [4][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Industrial Robots and Humanoid Robots - The global industrial robot market is projected to see new installations grow from 54.1 thousand units in 2024 to 60.2 thousand units by 2027, with a cumulative installation of 428.2 million units by the end of 2023 [11][12]. - China remains the largest market for industrial robots, accounting for 51% of global installations in 2023 [12]. - The humanoid robot market is expected to grow from $1.017 billion in 2024 to $15 billion by 2030, with sales increasing from 11,900 units to 605,700 units during the same period [3][27]. 2. Rare Earth Permanent Magnets - The cost of humanoid robot joints accounts for over 60% of the total cost, with significant components including rotary and linear actuators [4][31]. - The market for electric motor rotors is projected to reach $2.03 million, $3.58 million, and $5.73 million from 2025 to 2027, while the permanent magnet market is expected to reach $1.22 million, $2.15 million, and $3.44 million in the same timeframe [4][48]. - If humanoid robot sales reach 1 million units, the rotor market could reach $2 billion, corresponding to a permanent magnet market of $1.2 billion, with a demand for 3,500 tons of neodymium iron boron [4][48]. 3. Key Listed Companies - Major domestic producers of high-performance neodymium iron boron are concentrated in companies like Jinli Permanent Magnet, Zhuhai Yuheng, and Ningbo Yunsheng, which are actively entering the humanoid robot market [4][53]. - By 2025, the combined production capacity of high-performance neodymium iron boron in China is expected to reach 203,500 tons, with significant expansions planned by leading companies [53][56].

投资要点： 工业机器人市场稳定增长，人形机器人蓬勃发展 行 业 专 题 报 告 工业机器人增长稳定，为人形机器人奠定基础。国际机器人联合 会（IFR）预计，2024-2027 年全球工业机器人新增装机增长 0%、2.6%、 3.6%、4.7%，分别达到 54.1、55.5、57.5、60.2 万台。全球人形机器人 整机制造领域蓬勃发展，2025 或为人形机器人量产元年。多家机器人 厂商规划未来量产时间点，例如特斯拉形成了月度 2025 年千台，2026 年万台，2027 年十万台量级的规划，1X 规划 2028 全年达到百万量级。 据高工机器人，预计 2024 年全球人形机器人市场规模为 10.17 亿美元， 到 2030 年全球人形机器人市场规模将达到 150 亿美元，2024-2030 年 CAGR 将超过 56%，全球人形机器人销量将从 1.19 万台增长至 60.57 万台。 稀土永磁：机器人关节制造的核心材料，磁材+组件有望打开百亿级 赛道 人形机器人关节部分整体成本占比 60%以上，主要包括旋转关节、 直线关节以及灵巧手。以特斯拉 optimus Gen2 为例，每台包含 16 个旋 转执行器（占 ...

投资要点： 银发经济新时代：从被动治疗向主动健康管理转变 策 略 研 究 华福证券 银发经济智能健康新动力 团队成员 策 略 点 评 银发经济的消费升级趋势由人口结构变迁、支付能力提升和政策技术 协同三大因素共同驱动。根据 2025 年政府工作报告提出的养老金调整方 案，覆盖退休人员已超过 3 亿人，侧面印证了庞大的退休人口规模。未来 十年，中国将迎来新一轮大规模退休潮，届时"婴儿潮一代"（1962-1973 年出生群体）将全面步入老年阶段。这一代新老年群体不仅规模庞大，还 具备更高的教育水平、更强的消费能力和更高的科技接受度，由此推动健 康管理需求从"疾病治疗"向"预防干预"加速转变。 这一代老年人对营养补充、慢病防控和功能康复的需求日益增长，政 府正加大对智慧养老产业的支持力度。2025 年国家发改委计划将智慧养老 税收优惠纳入《银发经济高质量发展行动计划》，进一步扩大政策覆盖范 围。在政策支持和老年人群体的健康管理需求演变的背景下，相关行业的 创新和发展也引起了广泛关注。 告 与此同时，行动辅助设备也迎来快速发展，市场需求显著增加。据电 通创意统计，52%的中老年人认为"来去自如"是理想养老生活的关键， ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the promotion of high-quality development of the green certificate market, with goals set for 2027 and 2030 [2][6] - The report outlines various measures to stabilize the supply of green certificates, including automatic issuance and enhanced trading mechanisms [3][5] - The introduction of mandatory consumption requirements for green certificates is expected to stimulate demand, particularly in sectors like data centers [4][6] - The report highlights the importance of improving the trading mechanism for green certificates and optimizing long-term purchase agreements [5][6] - International recognition and alignment of green certificate standards are also prioritized to support global climate governance [5][6] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected return higher than the market benchmark by over 5% in the next 6 months [8] Market Development - The report discusses the issuance of guidelines aimed at enhancing the efficiency of green certificate issuance and expanding trading opportunities [3][4] - It mentions the goal of achieving a significant increase in green electricity consumption, particularly in new data centers, estimating a demand of 35 billion kWh by 2025 [4] Trading Mechanism - The report details the need for a robust price formation mechanism and the establishment of trading platforms for green certificates [5] - It notes the growth in distributed energy projects, with a significant increase in green certificate issuance in 2024 [5] International Cooperation - The report stresses the importance of aligning domestic and international standards for green certificates, facilitating international trade and recognition [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the promotion of high-quality development of the green certificate market, aiming for a well-established trading system by 2027, with a combination of mandatory and voluntary consumption mechanisms [6][4] - The report outlines measures to stabilize the supply of green certificates, including automatic issuance and enhanced trading mechanisms, which are expected to increase the scale of green electricity transactions [3][5] - The report highlights the mandatory consumption requirements for green certificates, projecting a significant increase in green electricity demand, particularly from newly built data centers, estimating an additional demand of 35 billion kWh by 2025 [4] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The National Development and Reform Commission has set goals for the green certificate market by 2027 and 2030, focusing on high-quality development [2] - The report discusses the automatic issuance of green certificates and the acceleration of green electricity trading, aiming to enhance market efficiency [3] Market Mechanisms - The report details improvements in the green certificate trading mechanism, including price formation and monitoring, and encourages long-term purchase agreements [5] - It notes the significant growth in distributed energy projects, with 56.95 million green certificates issued in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.8 times [5] International Cooperation - The report stresses the importance of international recognition of green certificates and the establishment of standards for global application, which will aid in achieving carbon neutrality goals [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies within the thermal power, hydropower, and green energy sectors, highlighting potential investment opportunities [6]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing sleep crisis in modern society, with 64% of adults maintaining only 6 hours of sleep, a 5% decrease from 2024, necessitating innovative solutions like AI smart mattresses [3][7][8] - AI smart mattresses are projected to reach a global market size of $1.8 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% from 2025 to 2030, indicating significant commercial potential [3][8] - The report emphasizes the need for companies to combine technological empowerment with humanistic care to explore new opportunities in the smart health sector [3][9] Group 2: Medical Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical index showed positive returns across all six sub-sectors, with the best performers being pharmaceutical commerce (+6.44%) and traditional Chinese medicine II (+2.63%) [2][10] - The report notes that the chemical pharmaceutical sector has the highest valuation at 65.16 times, while pharmaceutical commerce has the lowest at 20.21 times [10][14] Group 3: AI and Healthcare Trends - The report indicates a notable recovery in the medical and healthcare sector, driven by AI, with the AI medical index in the Hong Kong market rising by 35.57% and the A-share intelligent medical index increasing by 22.33% since the beginning of 2025 [17][20] - The report discusses the potential of innovative drugs entering a growth phase, with many companies meeting or exceeding performance expectations, indicating a shift towards innovation-driven revenue [20] Group 4: Brain-Computer Interface Developments - The report highlights the rapid advancements in brain-computer interface (BCI) technologies, with several companies disclosing progress in this area, supported by favorable policies from the National Medical Insurance Bureau [21][22] - BCI technology is expected to enhance clinical applications in the medical field, particularly for neurological diseases, by providing real-time monitoring and tailored treatment plans [22] Group 5: Healthcare Insurance Landscape - The report outlines the ongoing reforms in healthcare payment methods, specifically the implementation of Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG) and Disease-Specific Payment (DIP) systems, which are reshaping the healthcare financing landscape [25][26] - The report suggests that mid-tier health insurance products may see significant growth as they cater to patients seeking higher quality medical care, indicating a potential shift in the healthcare insurance market [26]