继续演绎。铜，供给端，本周铜精矿现货TC持稳处于低位，矿山新增 产能有限与冶炼产能扩张的矛盾仍在继续演绎，多家矿企确定2025年 铜精矿长单TC/RC分别为21.25美元/吨和2.125美分/磅。需求端，临近 年底，多数精铜杆厂在手订单较为充足但新增订单减少，且年底或转 向回款和安排检修。全球铜库存52.44万吨，环比-3.22万吨，同比 26.27万吨。我们认为，美联储降息方向确定，铜供需紧平衡对铜价构 成强支撑；中长期，随美联储降息加深提振投资和消费，同时打开国 内货币政策空间，叠加美国大选后宽货币宽财政带来的通胀反弹将支 撑铜价中枢上移。个股：铜矿推荐紫金矿业、洛阳钼业，小而优关注 铜陵有色、西部矿业、金诚信，其他关注河钢股份、藏格矿业等；电 解铝推荐中国铝业、中国宏桥，关注天山铝业、南山铝业、云铝股 份、神火股份等；锡建议关注锡业股份、兴业银锡、华锡有色。 ➢ 新能源金属：锂，24全年过剩局面未改，旺季虽然反弹但高度有 限，仍需通过锂价超跌实现供需再平衡；中长期看，锂矿为电动车产 业链最优质且弹性大的标的，关注股票和锂价双底部战略性布局机 会。稀土，商家情绪极度悲观，年关将至开始大跌属于经营策略上变 ...

Core Views - The rise of China's AI industry may reshape global perceptions of the US tech system, potentially suppressing dollar financing and impacting the existing pricing system [2] - Rapidly rising US real interest rates may reflect intensifying stagflation pressures, increasing the risk of economic downturn [2] - US PCE data indicates potential downward pressure in the services sector, while durable goods manufacturing remains strong [2] - US stocks face dual pressures from stagflation and the rise of China's AI applications, further exacerbating risks [2] - Trump's potential implementation of domestic circulation policies could maintain high US real interest rates in a stagflation scenario, mitigating economic downturn risks [2] - Mid-term optimism for gold, autonomous and controllable leaders, cyclical core assets, state-owned enterprises, and AI applications Long-term optimism for state-owned enterprises, the Belt and Road initiative, new consumption, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech O2O, semiconductor equipment, military, and traditional manufacturing leaders [2] Market Review and Style Shift - Broad-based indices showed mixed performance, with the STAR 50 and SSE 50 indices gaining [38] - The technology sector outperformed, while consumer and cyclical sectors saw deeper declines [21] - Market style may be entering a transition window, with high-beta, large-cap, and institutionally heavy stocks showing smaller declines [40] - Foreign investors' futures positions diverged, with IC, IM, and IH net short positions narrowing, while IF net short positions widened [64] Industry Performance - Technology sector led gains, with semiconductors, communication equipment, and components outperforming [73] - Fisheries, entertainment goods, and hotel catering sectors underperformed [73] - Hard tech sectors such as semiconductors and communication equipment led in relative outperformance against the SSE Index [73] Economic Data and Forecasts - The Fed reduced its 2025 rate cut expectations from four to two, citing persistent inflation pressures [15] - US PCE inflation in November was weaker than expected, with core goods inflation rising and core services inflation slowing [32] - US real consumption growth weakened, with core goods consumption stronger than core services consumption [92] - Fed's economic data forecasts show improved expectations for 2025 US economy, with stronger inflation expectations [15] Next Week's Focus - Key data to watch include US Federal Reserve bank reserve balances and China's industrial enterprise profits [77] Sector and Asset Allocation - Mid-term focus on gold, autonomous and controllable leaders, cyclical core assets, state-owned enterprises, and AI applications [2] - Long-term focus on state-owned enterprises, the Belt and Road initiative, new consumption, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech O2O, semiconductor equipment, military, and traditional manufacturing leaders [2]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [9] Core Insights - The semiconductor sector has shown significant price fluctuations, with notable increases in companies like Huagong Information (+5.9%) and Cambricon (+19%), while others like Longxin Zhongke have decreased (-7.4%) [1] - ByteDance's recent upgrade of its Doubao large model is expected to benefit domestic computing power companies, indicating a positive trend for the industry [1] - The semiconductor index has seen a rise of 7.48% this week, with the semiconductor transaction volume accounting for 6.4% of the total A-share market, reflecting a growing interest in the sector [24] Summary by Sections Digital Chips - The digital chip sector has experienced varied stock price movements, with notable gains in companies like Loxin Technology (+23%) and Ruixin Micro (+21%) [1] - OpenAI's release of an SDK for microcontrollers is expected to enhance the integration of AI capabilities in projects using Loxin chips [1] Simulation - The simulation sector has shown significant differences in stock performance, with companies like Fuman Micro (+17.1%) performing well, while others like Naxin Micro (-9.4%) faced declines [3] Packaging and Testing - The packaging and testing sector has seen a notable increase of 4.03%, with companies like Yongxi Electronics (+18.04%) leading the gains [4] Equipment - The equipment sector has rebounded, with companies like Jingzhida (+14.83%) showing strong performance, primarily due to the removal of sanctions on key players [11] Storage - The storage sector has seen all stocks rise, with Zhaoyi Innovation increasing by 21.7%, driven by strong demand in the data center segment [32] Manufacturing - The wafer foundry sector has shown a significant increase of 4.52%, with companies like SMIC rising by 13.6% [33] Focused Companies - The report highlights key companies to watch, including Cambricon, SMIC, Naxin Micro, Longxin Zhongke, Huafeng Measurement, and Loxin Technology [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the domestic photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity is expected to exceed 250GW in 2024, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 25.9% as of November 2023. The report emphasizes the strong performance of the PV sector, driven by year-end project rushes [3][29]. - The offshore wind power sector is gaining momentum, with Jiangsu and Liaoning provinces initiating competitive bidding for offshore wind projects, indicating a high level of market activity and investment opportunities [41][42]. - The hydrogen energy sector is actively being promoted by the National Energy Administration, with significant developments such as the operation of the first 1.5MW hydrogen power station in China [5][80]. Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - The report discusses the launch of standardized battery swapping solutions by CATL and the introduction of NIO's flagship electric vehicle ET9, indicating advancements in the electric vehicle market [16][17]. 2. New Energy Generation Sector 2.1 Photovoltaic Sector - As of November 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of solar energy reached approximately 820GW, with a year-on-year growth of 46.7%. The report anticipates that the domestic PV installed capacity will exceed 250GW in 2024, maintaining a robust growth trajectory [30][29]. 2.2 Wind Power Sector - The report notes that Jiangsu has initiated a competitive bidding process for 7.65GW of offshore wind projects, with expectations for smooth project progression and significant contributions to future grid connections [41][42]. 3. Energy Storage Sector - The report highlights a significant increase in energy storage installations in the U.S., with a year-on-year growth of 80% in Q3 2023. It also mentions potential policy changes in India that could accelerate energy storage development [46][54]. 4. Power Equipment and Industrial Control Sector - The report indicates a substantial increase in grid investment, with November 2023 seeing a 51.54% month-on-month growth. The overall investment in power grid projects is expected to exceed 600 billion yuan in 2024 [61][62]. 5. Hydrogen Energy Sector - The report outlines the proactive measures taken by the National Energy Administration to advance the hydrogen energy sector, including the operation of a 1.5MW hydrogen power station and plans for significant hydrogen production capacity by 2027 [75][80].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [10] Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing strong retail and wholesale growth, with retail sales of passenger cars reaching 1.083 million units in the first half of December, a year-on-year increase of 34% [1] - The report highlights the increasing focus on robotics within the automotive sector, with companies like BYD and NIO actively expanding their robotics capabilities [3][5] - The report anticipates a continued rise in market share for domestic brands, particularly in the luxury segment, driven by policy support and product innovation [21] Summary by Sections Industry Changes - As of December 19, nearly 2.7 million vehicles have been scrapped, and over 3.1 million vehicles have been replaced nationwide [1] - NIO launched its ET9 model and introduced a new brand, "Firefly" [1] - CATL is expanding its battery swap network with the launch of the "Chocolate" battery swap ecosystem [1] Market Performance - The automotive index saw a decline of 1% this week, ranking 8th out of 31 sectors [31] - The Wind Robotics Index decreased by 2.62%, ranking 191st out of 308 [2] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include major players in the automotive sector such as BYD, Geely, and Li Auto, which are expected to benefit from strong fundamentals and market positioning [21][32] - Focus on companies with robotics integration, such as Siasun Robot & Automation and other domestic robotics firms [4][32] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the automotive sector will continue to grow, particularly with the anticipated rollout of new policies and products in 2024 [21] - The integration of advanced driving technologies and robotics is expected to create new investment opportunities within the automotive supply chain [32][33]

图表 2: 房管局商品房网签数据（套、%） 4 重点监测 20 城合计成交二手房总套数为 32504 套，环比上周下降 8.7%；2024 年累计成交总套数为 126.1 万套，累计同比增长 4.1%。其中，一线城市成交 15800 套，环比上周下降 5.1%，2024年累计成交 54.2 万套，累计同比上升 18.9%；二线城 市成交 15510 套，环比上周下降 11.0%,2024年累计成交 66.3 万套,累计同比减少 4.0%; 三线城市成交 1194 套, 环比上周下降 16.0%, 2024 年累计成交 5.6 万套, 累 计同比增长 48.8%。 ●由于广州数据滞后性,因此广州数据截至 2024.12.14 行业定期报告 | 房地产 试信专业 发现价值 土地供应（12.9-12.15） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|------------------|---------|--------------|----------|--------------|--------| | 城市等级 | 供应规划建筑面积 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Follow the Market" for the steel industry [2] Core Views - The steel market is experiencing a weak downward trend, characterized by a dual weakness in supply and demand during the off-season, with a decline in molten iron production and increased contradictions in the raw material sector. Market confidence is low, and there is a lack of enthusiasm for steel inventory accumulation [7][17] - The average daily molten iron output has decreased to 2.294 million tons, down 1.32% week-on-week. The production of five major steel products is 8.499 million tons, down 1.25% week-on-week and 6.17% year-on-year, with significant declines in hot-rolled and medium-thick plate production [7][17] - Steel inventory has decreased to 1,118.4 thousand tons, down 1.82% week-on-week and 15.16% year-on-year, indicating a continued decline in inventory levels [7][17] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The steel industry has a PE (TTM) valuation of 27.55 times, which is at a mid-level among all industries. The PB (LF) valuation is 0.97 times, indicating a low level compared to other industries [22] Supply and Demand Situation - Iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil reached 25.78 million tons, up 20.1% week-on-week. However, iron ore arrivals at ports decreased to 22.68 million tons, down 9.9% week-on-week. Port iron ore inventory stands at 149.74 million tons, down 0.6% week-on-week but up 26% year-on-year [7][17] - The coking coal mining operating rate is 90.6%, down 0.59 percentage points week-on-week but up 4.89 percentage points year-on-year. Coking coal inventory is 28.56 million tons, up 2.25% week-on-week and 16.43% year-on-year [7][17] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the steel sector has the potential for upward rebound due to the lack of significant supply-demand contradictions and the implementation of incremental policies. The steel sector has seen significant declines and many stocks are trading below net asset value, with low institutional holdings [7][17] - Five main investment lines are recommended: 1. Companies with optimized product structures and stable high dividends, such as Hualing Steel and Baosteel [7][17] 2. Companies with high technical or cost barriers, such as CITIC Special Steel [7][17] 3. Companies with significant performance elasticity, such as Fangda Special Steel [7][17] 4. Long-term undervalued state-owned enterprises, such as Shandong Steel [7][17] 5. Industry leaders in high-temperature alloys and military-civilian dual-use sectors, such as Steel Research Institute [7][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the defense and military industry, indicating that the sector is at an inflection point with potential beta opportunities ahead [3][11][20]. Core Insights - The defense and military sector is expected to benefit from the realization of demand transmission, with the industry fundamentals approaching a turning point. The investment focus should be on traditional ground combat equipment and engine sectors, as well as high-elasticity directions that can cross the "14th Five-Year Plan" cycle [3][20][22]. - The report highlights that the military industry index has shown a relative underperformance compared to the broader market, but it is anticipated that the fundamentals will drive future performance as demand recovers in 2024 and 2025 [11][12][22]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The military industry index decreased by 0.83% during the week, while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.14%, resulting in a relative underperformance of -0.69 percentage points. The military index has increased by 19.63% since May 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 10.66 percentage points [11][24][42]. - The report notes that the engine sector performed slightly better, primarily due to significant gains from specific component stocks [31][41]. Stock Performance - The top-performing stocks included Western Materials (16.91%), Phoenix Optical (13.49%), and Fuguang Shares (9.65%), benefiting from external factors and trends in the electronic communication sector [41][48]. - Conversely, the worst-performing stocks were led by Hezhong Shizhuang (-14.73%) and Sikui (-14.52%), which experienced profit-taking after significant gains in previous weeks [41][61]. Funding and Valuation - As of December 20, the military industry index's TTM price-to-earnings ratio stands at 60.6, indicating a high valuation level. However, the report suggests that the current valuation is justified given the expected recovery in industry fundamentals in 2024 and 2025 [12][14][16]. - The report indicates a slight decrease in financing buy-in amounts and balances, reflecting a temporary decline in leveraged interest in the military sector. However, there is an expectation for a rebound in financing activity as demand strengthens [32][67].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry [73]. Core Views - The 2025 annual electricity transaction volume and price in Jiangsu province are expected to decline by 9% year-on-year, indicating intense competition among market participants [40][41]. - Jiangsu province has initiated a competitive allocation for 7.65GW of offshore wind projects, which is anticipated to contribute to the increase in offshore wind capacity in the region [45]. - In November, the output from hydropower and wind power decreased year-on-year, while the overall electricity consumption growth rate has slowed down [49]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The total electricity generation in November was 7,495 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, which is a decline compared to previous months [27][49]. - Hydropower generation decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, while thermal power generation increased by 1.4% [27][49]. Company Announcements - Longyuan Power issued a mid-term note with a total amount of 2 billion yuan and a coupon rate of 1.85% [1]. - Zhaoxin Co. is engaging in a financing lease with a maximum amount of 50 million yuan for a term of 120 months [2]. - The company Tianfu Energy has projects that are expected to reduce revenue by approximately 78.61 million yuan due to changes in subsidy eligibility [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the hydropower sector such as Changjiang Power and Qianyuan Power, while being cautious with companies like Guotou Power and Huaneng Hydropower [53]. - In the thermal power sector, it recommends attention to Sheneng Co. and Funeng Co., while being cautious with Huadian International and Jiangsu Guoxin [53]. - For nuclear power, China Nuclear Power is recommended, while China General Nuclear Power is advised with caution [53].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry [3]. Core Insights - The introduction of the "gift-giving" feature by WeChat Mini Store simplifies the gifting process, potentially creating new opportunities in social e-commerce. This feature eliminates the need to ask for the recipient's address or preferred style, significantly reducing the complexity of the gifting process. The timing of the feature's gray testing aligns with the upcoming Spring Festival, which could leverage WeChat's extensive social resources to drive growth in social e-commerce, marking a transformation following community and live-streaming e-commerce [1][39]. - Companies with products that have strong gifting attributes are expected to benefit from this trend, with recommendations to focus on Feike Electric, Beike, Bear Electric, Edifier, XGIMI Technology, and Beiding Co. [39]. Summary by Sections Weekly Investment View - The home appliance sector experienced a weekly decline of 0.7%, with specific segments showing varied performance: white goods +0.0%, black goods +0.1%, small appliances -3.7%, and kitchen appliances -5.2%. In terms of raw material prices, LME copper and aluminum decreased by 2.18% and 3.29% respectively compared to the previous week [10][64]. Policy Support and Market Recovery - The report suggests that domestic demand is expected to recover due to policy support. Key areas to watch include: 1. Major appliances benefiting from trade-in programs, with a focus on Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, Hisense Home Appliances, TCL Electronics, and Hisense Visual [11]. 2. The pet industry, seen as resilient during economic downturns, with recommendations for Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [11]. 3. Small appliances and branded apparel, which have been significantly impacted by weak consumer demand, are expected to see a rebound next year, with a focus on leading small appliance brands like Bear Electric, Feike Electric, Supor, and Xinbao [11]. 4. The electric two-wheeler market is anticipated to improve, with recommendations for leading companies like Yadi Holdings, Aima Technology, and Ninebot [11]. Global Manufacturing and Export Opportunities - The report highlights the ongoing theme of international expansion, suggesting that: 1. Leading brands in cleaning appliances are expected to benefit from global product strength and increasing penetration rates, with a focus on Stone Technology and Ecovacs [42]. 2. Major appliance leaders are pushing brand transformations and gaining market share globally, with recommendations for Haier Smart Home, Midea Group, Hisense Home Appliances, TCL Electronics, and Hisense Visual [42]. 3. Motorcycle brands are still in the early stages of international expansion, with significant growth potential, recommending Chuanfeng Power, Qianjiang Motorcycle, and Longxin General [42]. 4. Tool categories are expected to benefit from potential recovery in the real estate sector, with recommendations for Juxing Technology, Techtronic Industries, and Ousheng Electric [42]. Market Trends and Data - The report includes various market data and trends, indicating that the textile and apparel sector also faced a decline of 3.17% this week, with specific segments showing different performance metrics [24].