华福证券 投资要点： 英特尔新款游戏显卡卖爆，未来 24G 大显存版瞄准"生产力市场"。 近日，英特尔 Arc B580 显卡因其性价比够高而广受好评，供不应求。2025 年，英特尔准备推出更大显存版本显卡来应对 AI 推理市场需求的不断扩 张。 团队成员 分析师： 陈海进(S0210524060003) chj30590@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 徐巡(S0210524060004) xx30511@hfzq.com.cn 联系人： 李雅文(S0210124040076) lyw30508@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、20241222 周报：苹果生态与国产大模型合作 进展加速，助力 AI 手机落地——2024.12.23 2、豆包家族更新升级，半导体产业链持续受益- 半导体周跟踪——2024.12.22 3、美光乐观展望远期 HBM 市场；重视字节算力 硬 件产 业链 投 资机 遇-海 外科 技周 跟 踪— — 2024.12.22 GPT-5 年内不会发布，但已进行大规模训练。GPT-5 被认为能够解锁 新的科学发现，同时能完成诸如门诊预约、订机票等日常任务，将比当前 模型更加智能。12 ...

3.2 国家医保局要求排查虚开发票"一药双价"等问题 函件要求，案件查处地医保局代表有关药品挂网省份，及时与相关部门沟通，详 细了解具体案情，掌握"一药双价"问题线索，尽快依规约谈督促涉事医药企业规范 价格行为。对既不反映医药生产企业实际收入，又额外增加患者费用负担的代理商加 价部分，要坚决挤出药品虚高价格水分。根据案件查实的虚开发票、行贿等违法行为， 严格执行医药价格和招采信用评价制度，给予相关企业失信评级和相"处置措施。 4 风险提示 诚信专业 发现价值 6 请务必阅读报告末页的声明 分析师声明 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------|----------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------|-------------------------------- ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the stock-bond yield spread has risen to 1.5%, positioned between +1 and +2 standard deviations, with a decrease in the valuation differentiation coefficient [1][58]. - Market sentiment is converging, with a decline in industry rotation intensity, and the market is currently favoring large-cap stocks over micro-cap stocks [1][59]. - The market structure shows a decrease in trading volume, with leading sectors being communication, electronics, and banking, while potential alpha opportunities exist within beauty care, social services, and retail [1][61]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the average daily trading amount of the Stock Connect has decreased by 50.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week, with a drop of 2.02 million in the average daily trading volume [1][96]. - The top three stocks in terms of Stock Connect trading volume are Ningde Times, North Huachuang, and Kweichow Moutai, with recent five-day price changes of -1.6%, 7.2%, and 1.8% respectively [1][96]. - Net inflow of leveraged funds is 0.1 billion yuan, primarily flowing into the electronics, communication, and pharmaceutical sectors [1][96]. Group 3 - Industry hotspots include the launch of the "Gift" feature in WeChat Mini Stores, which is expected to enhance user engagement and drive e-commerce growth [1][70]. - Jiangsu Province has initiated competitive allocation for offshore wind power projects for 2024, indicating ongoing progress in the offshore wind sector [1][71]. - The report notes the official release of the Doubao visual understanding model, which accelerates the commercialization of large models and opens up investment opportunities in AI applications [1][72]. Group 4 - The report suggests focusing on the cross-year market direction, with expectations for a continuation of the technology sector's performance, particularly in Doubao and WeChat's "Gift" feature [1][74]. - It emphasizes the importance of mergers and acquisitions, debt reduction, sustained demand growth, and certainty in growth as key investment directions for the medium to long term [1][80].

图表 7: Wind 概念可降解塑料指数 Wind 行业定期报告 | 基础化工 随着全球各行各业争先恐后地寻找替代来源，预计价格将进一步上涨。 图表 10:赞城半导体指数 费城半导体指数 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2024-02 2018-02 来源: Wind,华福证券研究所 9 华福证券 行业定期报告 | 基础化工 《行动方案》指出，加强新材料产品标准培育，坚持应用牵引，围绕生物医药、 船舶及海洋工程、新能源等重点领域，加快推动一批创新成果转化成关键战略材料 标准。聚焦前沿材料产业化重点发展指导目录，利用国内超大规模市场条件下制定 标准技术响应速度快、标准研制效率高等优势，开展前沿新材料标准研制。（资料 来源：DT 新材料） 诚信专业 发现价值 8 请务必阅读报告末页的声明 来源： Wind，华福证券研究所 华福证券 投资者应注意，在法律许可的情况下，本公司及其本公司的关联机构可能会持有本报告中涉及的公司所发行的证券并进行交易，也 可能为这些公司正在提供或争取提供投资银行、财务顾问和金融产品等各种金融服务。投资者请勿将本报告视为投资或其他决定的 唯一参考依据 ...

Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%[4] - The dot plot indicates a reduction in the expected number of rate cuts for next year from 4 to 2[4] - Fed Chairman Powell stated that if inflation does not consistently move towards 2%, the pace of rate cuts may slow down[4] Economic Data Insights - The Q3 annualized GDP growth rate was 3.1%, exceeding both the previous and expected values of 2.8%[24] - The core PCE price index for Q3 was 2.2%, higher than the previous and expected values of 2.1%[24] - The final value of Q3 real personal consumption expenditures was 3.7%, above the previous value of 3.5%[24] - November retail sales increased by 0.7%, surpassing both the previous and expected values of 0.5%[24] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the US stock indices experienced significant declines, influenced by hawkish comments from Fed officials and the adjusted rate cut expectations[4] - The market now anticipates only one rate cut in 2025, reflecting a substantial cooling of rate cut expectations[4][14] Asset Performance - Major global asset classes showed mixed performance, with the Russian Ruble appreciating by 5.36% against the Renminbi, while CBOT soybean oil fell by 6.37%[4][66] - The S&P 500 index declined by 1.99% this week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.25%[30][60] Labor Market Trends - Initial jobless claims decreased to 220,000 from the previous 242,000, indicating a tightening labor market[24] - Continuing claims also fell to 1.874 million from 1.879 million, further suggesting labor market resilience[24]

Industry Investment Rating - Stronger than the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Views - The integration of Apple's ecosystem with domestic large models is key to the landing of AI phones in China [1] - Apple's AI features require local partners to address technical and regulatory challenges for successful implementation in China [1] - Apple is in talks with Tencent and ByteDance to integrate their AI models into iPhones sold in China, which could accelerate the localization of Apple's AI features [1][75] - The successful integration of domestic large models into Apple's ecosystem and the smooth landing of localized iPhone AI experiences are expected to boost Apple's sales in China and create growth opportunities for related industry chains [1] Market Performance - The electronics sector rose by 0.22% this week, ranking second among all industries [29] - The semiconductor sub-sector saw the largest increase, up 5.40%, while electronic chemicals had the smallest increase, up 0.43% [11] - Notable stock performers in the SW electronics sector include Mingyang Circuit (up 26.19%) and Fullhan Microelectronics (up 25.16%), while Guanghua Technology (down 15.51%) and *ST Meixun (down 12.72%) were among the biggest decliners [12] Valuation Analysis - The overall PE (TTM) of the electronics industry this week was 57.14x, slightly higher than the previous week [16] - Sub-sector valuations: consumer electronics (31.05x), electronic chemicals (59.06x), components (39.25x), other electronics (62.89x), optoelectronics (58.43x), and semiconductors (92.96x) [18] Industry Dynamics - Micron announced progress on its next-generation HBM4 and HBM4E processes, with HBM4 expected to enter mass production in 2026 [20] - TSMC's Kumamoto factory in Japan is set to begin mass production this year, using 22/28nm and 12/16nm process technologies [21][58] - Apple is in early discussions with Tencent and ByteDance to integrate their AI models into iPhones sold in China [59] - Huawei led the global wearable device market in the first three quarters of 2024, with a 44.3% year-on-year increase in shipments [60] - India's PC and tablet market is expected to grow by 17% in 2024, driven by strong demand in the education sector [61][62] - Global AR/VR headset shipments grew by 12.8% in Q3 2024, with Meta maintaining a 70.8% market share [63][64] - AMOLED panels are projected to account for 43% of display panel market revenue by 2028, up from 34% in 2022 [66] - Samsung Display plans to continue selling its 8th-generation LCD equipment as it shifts focus to OLED production [67][69] - OLED laptop penetration is expected to exceed 5% by 2027, driven by Apple's adoption of OLED technology in MacBooks [71][72] Company Dynamics - Notable shareholder changes include Guoxin Technology (reducing holdings by 0.58%) and Laite Optoelectronics (reducing holdings by 2.00%) [53] - Mingyang Circuit saw significant shareholder reductions, with multiple entities reducing their stakes [90]

继续演绎。铜，供给端，本周铜精矿现货TC持稳处于低位，矿山新增 产能有限与冶炼产能扩张的矛盾仍在继续演绎，多家矿企确定2025年 铜精矿长单TC/RC分别为21.25美元/吨和2.125美分/磅。需求端，临近 年底，多数精铜杆厂在手订单较为充足但新增订单减少，且年底或转 向回款和安排检修。全球铜库存52.44万吨，环比-3.22万吨，同比 26.27万吨。我们认为，美联储降息方向确定，铜供需紧平衡对铜价构 成强支撑；中长期，随美联储降息加深提振投资和消费，同时打开国 内货币政策空间，叠加美国大选后宽货币宽财政带来的通胀反弹将支 撑铜价中枢上移。个股：铜矿推荐紫金矿业、洛阳钼业，小而优关注 铜陵有色、西部矿业、金诚信，其他关注河钢股份、藏格矿业等；电 解铝推荐中国铝业、中国宏桥，关注天山铝业、南山铝业、云铝股 份、神火股份等；锡建议关注锡业股份、兴业银锡、华锡有色。 ➢ 新能源金属：锂，24全年过剩局面未改，旺季虽然反弹但高度有 限，仍需通过锂价超跌实现供需再平衡；中长期看，锂矿为电动车产 业链最优质且弹性大的标的，关注股票和锂价双底部战略性布局机 会。稀土，商家情绪极度悲观，年关将至开始大跌属于经营策略上变 ...

Core Views - The rise of China's AI industry may reshape global perceptions of the US tech system, potentially suppressing dollar financing and impacting the existing pricing system [2] - Rapidly rising US real interest rates may reflect intensifying stagflation pressures, increasing the risk of economic downturn [2] - US PCE data indicates potential downward pressure in the services sector, while durable goods manufacturing remains strong [2] - US stocks face dual pressures from stagflation and the rise of China's AI applications, further exacerbating risks [2] - Trump's potential implementation of domestic circulation policies could maintain high US real interest rates in a stagflation scenario, mitigating economic downturn risks [2] - Mid-term optimism for gold, autonomous and controllable leaders, cyclical core assets, state-owned enterprises, and AI applications Long-term optimism for state-owned enterprises, the Belt and Road initiative, new consumption, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech O2O, semiconductor equipment, military, and traditional manufacturing leaders [2] Market Review and Style Shift - Broad-based indices showed mixed performance, with the STAR 50 and SSE 50 indices gaining [38] - The technology sector outperformed, while consumer and cyclical sectors saw deeper declines [21] - Market style may be entering a transition window, with high-beta, large-cap, and institutionally heavy stocks showing smaller declines [40] - Foreign investors' futures positions diverged, with IC, IM, and IH net short positions narrowing, while IF net short positions widened [64] Industry Performance - Technology sector led gains, with semiconductors, communication equipment, and components outperforming [73] - Fisheries, entertainment goods, and hotel catering sectors underperformed [73] - Hard tech sectors such as semiconductors and communication equipment led in relative outperformance against the SSE Index [73] Economic Data and Forecasts - The Fed reduced its 2025 rate cut expectations from four to two, citing persistent inflation pressures [15] - US PCE inflation in November was weaker than expected, with core goods inflation rising and core services inflation slowing [32] - US real consumption growth weakened, with core goods consumption stronger than core services consumption [92] - Fed's economic data forecasts show improved expectations for 2025 US economy, with stronger inflation expectations [15] Next Week's Focus - Key data to watch include US Federal Reserve bank reserve balances and China's industrial enterprise profits [77] Sector and Asset Allocation - Mid-term focus on gold, autonomous and controllable leaders, cyclical core assets, state-owned enterprises, and AI applications [2] - Long-term focus on state-owned enterprises, the Belt and Road initiative, new consumption, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech O2O, semiconductor equipment, military, and traditional manufacturing leaders [2]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [9] Core Insights - The semiconductor sector has shown significant price fluctuations, with notable increases in companies like Huagong Information (+5.9%) and Cambricon (+19%), while others like Longxin Zhongke have decreased (-7.4%) [1] - ByteDance's recent upgrade of its Doubao large model is expected to benefit domestic computing power companies, indicating a positive trend for the industry [1] - The semiconductor index has seen a rise of 7.48% this week, with the semiconductor transaction volume accounting for 6.4% of the total A-share market, reflecting a growing interest in the sector [24] Summary by Sections Digital Chips - The digital chip sector has experienced varied stock price movements, with notable gains in companies like Loxin Technology (+23%) and Ruixin Micro (+21%) [1] - OpenAI's release of an SDK for microcontrollers is expected to enhance the integration of AI capabilities in projects using Loxin chips [1] Simulation - The simulation sector has shown significant differences in stock performance, with companies like Fuman Micro (+17.1%) performing well, while others like Naxin Micro (-9.4%) faced declines [3] Packaging and Testing - The packaging and testing sector has seen a notable increase of 4.03%, with companies like Yongxi Electronics (+18.04%) leading the gains [4] Equipment - The equipment sector has rebounded, with companies like Jingzhida (+14.83%) showing strong performance, primarily due to the removal of sanctions on key players [11] Storage - The storage sector has seen all stocks rise, with Zhaoyi Innovation increasing by 21.7%, driven by strong demand in the data center segment [32] Manufacturing - The wafer foundry sector has shown a significant increase of 4.52%, with companies like SMIC rising by 13.6% [33] Focused Companies - The report highlights key companies to watch, including Cambricon, SMIC, Naxin Micro, Longxin Zhongke, Huafeng Measurement, and Loxin Technology [12]