Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC, as well as specific stocks like Xinyangfeng and Senqilin [10]. Core Views - The report highlights significant price increases in sulfuric acid and sulfur, suggesting a focus on import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend opportunities [6][8]. - The report notes that international oil prices have sharply risen due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Iran and Israel, which may impact oil production and exports [6][21]. - The overall chemical industry remains under pressure, with mixed performance across sub-sectors, influenced by past capacity expansions and weak demand [22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report suggests monitoring the tire industry, which is expected to perform better due to global strategies and tariff experiences [8]. - It emphasizes the acceleration of import substitution in the chemical sector, particularly for lubricating oil additives and special coatings [8]. - The report also highlights the self-sufficiency of nitrogen, phosphorus, and compound fertilizers in China, which are less affected by tariffs [8]. Price Movements - Notable price increases this week include sulfuric acid (up 7.24%) and sulfur (up 7.24%), while significant declines were seen in ammonium chloride (down 10.53%) and urea (down 9.95%) [20][22]. - The report indicates that the chemical industry is experiencing a weak overall performance, with some sectors like tires and lubricants showing better-than-expected results [22]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings forecasts for several companies, indicating a positive outlook for firms like Xinyangfeng and Senqilin, with expected EPS growth [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries, indicating a positive outlook for these sectors [12][14]. Core Insights - Geopolitical military conflicts have led to increased capital inflow into precious metals, driving strong upward momentum in prices [6]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to continue its interest rate cuts, which supports the bullish trend in gold prices [12]. - Domestic demand for copper and aluminum is expected to weaken in the short term, but long-term supply-demand dynamics remain tight, supporting prices [12]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have risen due to geopolitical tensions and continued purchases by the People's Bank of China, which increased its gold reserves by 60,000 ounces in May [6][12]. - The report notes that after a period of consolidation, gold prices are likely to enter a new upward phase [6]. Copper and Aluminum - Domestic macroeconomic indicators show a slight decline in demand, with China's May CPI at -0.1% and PPI at -3.3% [7][29]. - Despite weak downstream demand, low domestic inventory levels are expected to support copper and aluminum prices, which are projected to experience wide fluctuations [11][12]. Tin and Antimony - Tin prices are expected to remain strong due to supply constraints and declining inventories, with domestic refined tin prices at 265,680 RMB/ton [12]. - Antimony prices are under pressure due to weak demand, but long-term supply constraints are expected to support prices [12]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks within each sector, including Zijin Mining and Zhongjin Gold for gold, and various companies for copper and aluminum [14][16].

--鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：39 分（较冷） 最近一年大盘走势 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 2025 年 06 月 16 日 双融日报 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较冷） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 39 分，市场情绪处于"较冷"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：稀土、机器人、减肥药 1、稀土主题：稀土是镧系元素和钪、钇共十七种金属元 素的总称。稀土永磁材料是现在已知的综合性能最高的一种 永磁材料。稀土在工业和新材料领域举足轻重的地位，各国 将它作为一种战略储备资源；中国稀土产业世界第一。相关 标的：中国稀土（000831）、金力永磁（300748） 2、机器人主题：据"中科院之声"消息，中国科学院沈 阳自动化研究所日前研发了一套"刚柔耦合"的下肢多关节 康复外骨骼机器人，有望为下肢偏瘫患者提供运动功能重建 与行为辅助服务。结果显示，该研究方法有效实现了运动学 重塑、步态模式自然性与 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1] Core Insights - The recent surge in significant transactions, particularly in the innovative drug sector, is driving a revaluation of drug values, especially for PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies [2] - The Chinese pharmaceutical market is witnessing a notable increase in transaction volume and value, with a 34% year-on-year increase in the number of transactions and a 222% increase in total transaction value in Q1 2025 [2] - The upcoming ADA conference is expected to showcase key clinical data and collaborations in the weight loss and muscle gain sectors, indicating a strong focus on GLP-1 drugs [3] - The gout treatment market presents substantial growth potential, with a projected increase in the number of patients in China from 170 million in 2020 to 240 million by 2030 [4] - The PD-1/VEGF dual antibody is positioned to challenge existing global drugs, with significant transactions indicating strong market interest [5] Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.66% over the past week and ranked 5th in terms of weekly gains [18] - Over the past month, the pharmaceutical industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 9.26%, ranking 1st among 31 primary industry indices [21][23] 2. Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The pharmaceutical industry index has a current PE (TTM) of 34.88, slightly above the 5-year historical average of 33.02 [40] 3. Recent Research Achievements - The report highlights various recent research outputs from the pharmaceutical team, including insights into the growth of blood products and the impact of policy support on inhalation formulations [46] 4. Recent Industry Policies and News - The report outlines significant recent policies aimed at improving governance in the pharmaceutical sector, including measures to combat corruption and enhance regulatory oversight [48] - Notable industry news includes the approval of multiple innovative drugs and collaborations among major pharmaceutical companies, indicating a vibrant market environment [49][50]

Quantitative Models and Factor Analysis Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Hong Kong Stock Market Quantitative Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is built around the Hang Seng Index, selecting indicators from five dimensions: fundamentals, liquidity, capital flows, sentiment, and valuation to analyze the factors influencing the rise and fall of the Hong Kong stock market[15]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Fundamentals**: OECD China Economic Leading Indicator - **Liquidity**: US-Hong Kong interest rate spread, US Dollar Index, US Treasury yields - **Sentiment**: Hang Seng Index options put-call ratio (PCR), Hong Kong stock short-selling turnover ratio - **Capital Flows**: Net foreign capital inflows, Southbound capital - **Valuation**: AH premium index[14] - **Model Evaluation**: The model successfully captured the policy-driven rebound in the Hong Kong stock market from September 23, 2024, to October 10, 2024, and avoided the subsequent downturn by maintaining a predominantly cash position. The model turned bullish again in early 2025 as passive foreign capital accelerated its layout in Hong Kong stocks[15]. Model Backtesting Results - **Hong Kong Stock Market Quantitative Timing Model**: - Successfully captured the policy-driven rebound in the Hong Kong stock market from September 23, 2024, to October 10, 2024[15] - Maintained a predominantly cash position during the subsequent market adjustment, avoiding the downturn[15] - Turned bullish again in early 2025 as passive foreign capital accelerated its layout in Hong Kong stocks[15] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: OECD China Economic Leading Indicator - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor is used to gauge the economic outlook of China, which is a significant driver for the Hong Kong stock market[15]. - **Factor Construction Process**: The OECD China Economic Leading Indicator is used directly as a measure of economic activity and outlook[15]. Factor Name: Hang Seng Index Options Put-Call Ratio (PCR) - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures market sentiment by comparing the volume of put options to call options on the Hang Seng Index[15]. - **Factor Construction Process**: The put-call ratio (PCR) is calculated as follows: $$ \text{PCR} = \frac{\text{Volume of Put Options}}{\text{Volume of Call Options}} $$ - **Explanation**: A higher PCR indicates a bearish sentiment, while a lower PCR indicates a bullish sentiment[15]. Factor Name: Net Foreign Capital Inflows - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor tracks the net amount of foreign capital flowing into the Hong Kong stock market, indicating the level of foreign investor interest and confidence[15]. - **Factor Construction Process**: The net foreign capital inflows are measured by the total amount of foreign capital entering the market minus the total amount exiting the market[15]. Factor Backtesting Results - **OECD China Economic Leading Indicator**: - Successfully indicated the economic outlook and supported the model's timing decisions[15] - **Hang Seng Index Options Put-Call Ratio (PCR)**: - Provided effective signals for market sentiment, aiding in the timing of market entries and exits[15] - **Net Foreign Capital Inflows**: - Accurately reflected foreign investor interest and confidence, contributing to the model's performance[15]

证 券 研 究 报 告 金融工程周报 华鑫量化全天候策略连续三周新高 ——指数基金投资+ 2025年06月15日 n 分析师：吕思江 n 联系人：刘新源 n SAC编号：S1050522030001 n SAC编号：S1050123100011 n 联系人：武文静 n SAC编号：S1050123070007 市场观点和ETF交易机会 p 【国内市场跟踪】本周市场日均成交放量至1.37万亿，A股4月8日以来忽视经济下行趋势积极交易中美关 系，大盘走至核心点位抛压较大，市场低波动窄幅震荡下情绪较为脆弱，核心指数中仅创业板指小幅上涨 0.22%收红，北证50和科创板领跌，量化基金形成赚钱效应后增量资金持续进入支撑小盘延续领涨，当前 小微盘均在高位且拥挤度持续处于风险提示信号。2025年6月13日至15日，伊朗与以色列爆发激烈军事冲 突，双方互相发动多轮导弹和无人机袭击，伊朗核设施及以色列境内目标遭重创，局势持续升级，风险资 产承压。港股创新药本周大涨11%，南向资金在本周后两个交易日开始卖出ai科技追涨创新药，周买入前 10个股有3只为创新药个股：信达生物、石药集团、三生制药，港股创新药进入泡沫化区间短期转为看空 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the electronic industry, particularly those related to AI smart glasses and Apple's supply chain [8][16]. Core Insights - The electronic industry has shown a mixed performance, with a 3.60% increase in the week of June 9-13, ranking third among sectors. The industry’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 49.32 [24][29]. - Apple's WWDC introduced significant updates, including a new iOS design and AI features, which are expected to boost related supply chain companies [3][14]. - The smart glasses market is experiencing explosive growth, with sales increasing over eightfold, and China is projected to lead global shipments in 2025 [4][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electronic sector's performance varied, with a 3.60% increase during the week of June 9-13, outperforming the broader market [24][29]. - The brand consumer electronics segment saw the highest gains among electronic sub-sectors [29]. Key Company Recommendations - Companies recommended for investment include: - 康冠科技 (Kangguan Technology) with a projected EPS of 1.69 in 2025 and a "Buy" rating [16]. - 亿道信息 (Yidao Information) with a projected EPS of 1.03 in 2025 and a "Buy" rating [16]. - 国光电器 (Guoguang Electric) with a projected EPS of 0.76 in 2025 and a "Buy" rating [16]. - 歌尔股份 (Goer Technology) with a projected EPS of 1.01 in 2025 and a "Buy" rating [16]. - 立讯精密 (Luxshare Precision) with a projected EPS of 2.41 in 2025 and an "Increase" rating [16]. Market Trends - The smart glasses market is projected to reach 12.8 million units globally by 2025, with a 26% year-on-year growth, and China expected to account for 2.75 million units, marking a 107% increase [4][15]. - The integration of AI and augmented reality technologies is driving the growth of the smart glasses market [4][15]. Investment Opportunities - Suggested stocks related to AI smart glasses include: - 博士眼镜 (Doctor Glasses) - 亿道信息 (Yidao Information) - 国光电器 (Guoguang Electric) - 康冠科技 (Kangguan Technology) - 漫步者 (Edifier) - 恒玄科技 (Hengxuan Technology) [6][15].

2025 年 06 月 13 日 双融日报 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 67 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：稀土、机器人、减肥药 1、稀土主题：稀土是镧系元素和钪、钇共十七种金属元 素的总称。稀土永磁材料是现在已知的综合性能最高的一种 永磁材料。稀土在工业和新材料领域举足轻重的地位，各国 将它作为一种战略储备资源；中国稀土产业世界第一。相关 标的：中国稀土（000831）、金力永磁（300748） 2、机器人主题：据"中科院之声"消息，中国科学院沈 阳自动化研究所日前研发了一套"刚柔耦合"的下肢多关节 康复外骨骼机器人，有望为下肢偏瘫患者提供运动功能重建 与行为辅助服务。结果显示，该研究方法有效实现了运动学 重塑、步态模式自然性与对称性等关键康复目标。相关标 的：振江股份(603507)、光大同创(301387) 3、减肥药主题：近日,据美国糖尿病协会(ADA)官网显 示,其第 85 届科学年会将于 6 月 20-23 日在美国芝加哥 McCormick 会展中心举行,该会议被誉为"全 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see significant profit growth in 2024, with projected revenue of 3.652 billion yuan, an 18.31% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 167 million yuan, reflecting a 75.42% increase [3]. - The launch of new products in the 800G and 400G series is anticipated to drive demand and profitability, with mass production expected to meet customer needs in 2025 [3][4]. - The company has successfully commercialized Wi-Fi 7 and 10G gateway products in the North American market, enhancing its competitive position [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.19 billion, 7.116 billion, and 9.501 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.13, 1.84, and 2.76 yuan [5][9]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit growth rate of 81.1% in 2025 and 63.1% in 2026, indicating strong profitability potential [9]. Product Development and Market Position - The company has made significant advancements in the high-speed optical module sector, with multiple new products undergoing successful testing and certification [3][4]. - The development of low-power and cost-effective products is ongoing, with expectations for large-scale shipments in 2025 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the AI and computer sectors, including 亿道信息 (001314.SZ), 科大讯飞 (002230.SZ), 唯科科技 (301196.SZ), and others [16]. Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of the "悟界" series of large models by 智源, marking significant advancements in AI technology, including the Emu3 model and the RoboOS 2.0 framework [4][24]. - 高德开放平台 has introduced a smart glasses solution, integrating AI navigation capabilities with local life services, indicating a new phase in wearable technology [8][41]. - Anysphere has secured $900 million in funding, raising its valuation to $9.9 billion, driven by its innovative AI programming tool, Cursor [10][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Computing Dynamics - The report notes slight fluctuations in computing power rental prices, with specific pricing details for various configurations [23]. - 智源's "悟界" series includes breakthroughs such as the Emu3 model, which utilizes a novel visual tokenizer for multi-modal understanding [24][25]. - The RoboOS 2.0 framework introduces a serverless lightweight robot deployment system, enhancing collaboration and reducing development costs [27][28]. 2. AI Application Dynamics - Perplexity's average weekly visits increased by 1.71%, indicating growing interest in AI applications [36]. - 高德's smart glasses solution combines navigation and local service functionalities, showcasing advancements in spatial computing [41][42]. 3. AI Financing Trends - Anysphere's recent funding round of $900 million will support the development of its AI capabilities and accelerate market expansion [46][48]. 4. Market Review - The AI computing index and application index showed varying performance, with notable gains in specific companies within the sector [51].