Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for the electronics sector is "Positive" [5]. Core Viewpoints - The imposition of tariffs is expected to accelerate domestic substitution and industry upgrades in China, particularly in the semiconductor sector [2][4]. - The tariffs will lead to increased costs and supply chain adjustments, prompting Chinese companies to seek alternative suppliers outside the U.S. [2]. - The domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturing process is anticipated to enter a rapid development phase due to the rising costs of imported equipment [3]. - The tariff barriers are driving structural changes in the global supply chain, with a focus on domestic production and technological iteration [4]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The U.S. has imposed a 10% baseline tariff globally, with an additional 34% tariff on Chinese goods, affecting the electronics trade significantly [1][2]. - In 2024, China's imports from the U.S. are projected to be approximately $163.62 billion, with machinery and electronics accounting for about 23.17% of this total [2]. Domestic Equipment and Semiconductor Development - The global market for semiconductor equipment is dominated by U.S. companies, which hold about 40% market share. The tariffs are expected to increase the cost of importing these critical devices [3]. - The domestic self-sufficiency rate for analog chips in China is around 15% as of 2023, and the tariffs are likely to enhance the competitiveness of local manufacturers [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the domestic electronics industry can achieve advantages through a combination of domestic substitution, technological iteration, and global collaboration [4]. - Beneficiary companies identified include Shengbang Co., Sirepo, Xidi Micro, Nanchip Technology, and others [4].

光伏行业对等关税征收点评：贸易 壁垒高悬，全球竞争加剧 ——光伏行业事件点评 事件： 4 月 2 日，美国宣布"对等关税"举措，即美国对贸易伙伴设立 10％的"最低基准 关税"，并对某些贸易伙伴征收更高关税，包括中国（34%）、越南（46%）、 泰国（36%）、印度尼西亚（32%）、柬埔寨（49%）、老挝（48%）、马来西亚 （24%）。4 月 4 日，中方发布系列反制措施，对原产于美国的所有进口商品， 在现行适用关税税率基础上加征 34%关税。 点评： 本次加征对等关税举措与美国扶持本土新能源制造战略相契合。美国一直致力 于提升本土新能源制造产业的相对竞争力，在本次对等关税举措前，美国推出 了通胀削减法案以扶持新能源产业，同时也通过重启反规避调查等举措推升进 口产品关税，在本次对等关税之前，中国光伏行业出口美国的贸易壁垒早已高 悬。美国加征对等关税后，预计随着低成本组件供应进一步缩减，美国光伏组 件等产品的价格或将上涨，进而推升光伏电站投资成本上升，抑制短期光伏新 增装机；从长期看，对等关税的举措，与美国扶持本土新能源制造的战略相符， 或将促进美国光伏制造业的投资和发展。 加征对等关税影响小于双反，边际影响 ...

Group 1: Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The copper market is experiencing downward adjustments due to recession expectations, but supply-demand tightness supports pricing resilience [1] - In 2025, global copper supply-demand structure is expected to remain tight, with a significant shortage in copper concentrate processing fees indicating potential production cuts [1] - China's refined copper production is projected to reach a record high of 13.644 million tons in 2024, benefiting from high TC long-term contract prices and strong by-product sulfuric acid prices [1] Group 2: Gold Market - London spot gold prices have risen 18% to $3,055 per ounce in 2025, driven by safe-haven demand and central bank purchases [2] - The introduction of equal tariff policies may exacerbate inflation, which could boost gold's inflation premium [5] - The gold pricing trend is expected to continue upward, with potential to reach $3,300 per ounce as market sentiment improves [5] Group 3: Rare Earth Industry - China's recent export controls on seven categories of medium and heavy rare earths are expected to lead to stronger pricing dynamics in the industry [6] - The export quota growth for rare earths in China has significantly slowed, indicating a tightening supply situation [6] - Japan's reliance on Chinese rare earth imports is highlighted, with 77% of its monthly imports coming from China, suggesting potential impacts on Japan's market [6] Group 4: Agriculture Sector - The recent U.S. tariff increases on Chinese imports, including agricultural products, are expected to raise prices and alter supply dynamics [19][20] - The agricultural sector is likely to benefit from rising domestic demand and the need for food security, prompting a shift towards domestic production [21] - Companies in the agricultural sector, particularly those involved in breeding and feed production, are recommended for investment due to their potential to capitalize on these changes [21] Group 5: Chemical Industry - The U.S. has imposed a 34% tariff on Chinese chemical exports, which may impact demand for certain products but overall effects are expected to be limited [23][24] - Specific exemptions for certain chemicals may mitigate the impact of tariffs on some sectors within the chemical industry [23] - The pricing and supply of chemical products may be affected by increased costs of imported raw materials from the U.S. [24] Group 6: Transportation Sector - The new tariffs are expected to pressure import and export freight volumes, particularly affecting container shipping and air freight [27][30] - The cancellation of tax exemptions for small packages will lead to increased costs for air freight, impacting demand [30] - There is a recommendation to focus on domestic demand and emerging markets as companies adapt to the new trade environment [30] Group 7: Machinery Industry - The new tariffs are anticipated to accelerate domestic policies aimed at enhancing productivity and innovation in the machinery sector [32][33] - Investment opportunities are expected to arise in low-altitude economy and deep-sea technology sectors as a response to tariff impacts [33] - The focus on new productivity measures may lead to increased support for industries involved in advanced manufacturing and automation [32]

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The U.S. tariff policy aims to attract manufacturing back to the U.S., with significant tariffs imposed on various countries, including a 34% tariff on China [2] - The imposition of high tariffs is expected to increase trade costs globally, impacting both exporters and U.S. consumers, potentially leading to higher inflation in the U.S. [2] - The actual execution of the tariff policy remains uncertain and will depend on future negotiations between the U.S. and other countries [2] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The tariffs will directly affect container shipping and air freight, particularly on the Far East-North America route, leading to increased trade costs and reduced cargo volumes [3] - The cancellation of tax exemptions for small packages will have a short-term negative impact on air freight, as businesses may need to shift to more expensive shipping methods [3] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic demand sectors such as highways and railways, which are expected to benefit from increased internal consumption [8] - Companies that have established a presence in emerging markets like Southeast Asia are likely to see increased opportunities as they adapt to the changing trade landscape [8] Industry Data - The transportation industry comprises 126 companies, with a total market value of 32,036.5 billion and a circulating market value of 28,190.56 billion [5] - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the industry is 15.99 [5]

农林牧渔行业：关税反制加码，全 面看好农业板块 2025 年 4 月 7 日 看好/维持 农林牧渔 行业报告 事件：4 月 3 日，美国政府宣布"对等关税"计划，其中对中国大陆加征的关 税税率为 34%。4 月 4 日，国务院关税税则委员会发布关于对原产于美国进口 商品加征关税的公告，中国将对原产于美国的所有进口商品，在现行适用关税 税率基础上加征 34%关税。此前，中国已从 3 月 10 日起对原产于美国的部分 农产品加征关税。 关税反制下，关注农产品涨价与农业新质生产力。正如我们在 3 月 5 日发布的 报告《农林牧渔行业：对美农产品加征关税，关注农产品涨价与粮食安全》中 进行的梳理，综合进口量和依存度，高粱、大豆、玉米和棉花受影响较大。此 次关税反制后，我国从美国进口农产品加征税率累计达到 44%/49%，从美进 口农产品完税价格进一步提升。我国近年来自美国进口农产品数量及占比逐步 下降，此次"对等关税"与我国的关税反制政策落地将进一步促使我国农产品供 应格局发生变化，对南美市场进口和国内市场供应占比将提升。短期来看，进 口成本的抬升将推升进口依存度较高的农产品价格上涨；中长期来看，贸易摩 擦加剧，粮食 ...

行 业 研 究 基础化工行业：中美互加关税对化 工品影响几何？ 2025 年 4 月 7 日 看好/维持 基础化工 行业报告 中美互加关税。当地时间 4 月 2 日，美方宣布对所有贸易伙伴征收"对 等关税"，其中给中国的"对等关税"税率达到 34%。4 月 4 日，中国 接连发布多项对美反制措施，包括自 4 月 10 日起，对原产于美国的所 有进口商品加征 34%关税。 对美出口方面：化工品出口至美国的占比约 12%，整体影响有限。根 据海关总署统计，2024 年我国以化学工业及其相关工业产品、塑料及 其制品为代表的化工品出口总金额约为 3707 亿美元，其中对美国出口 的金额约为 446 以美元，占比约为 12.03%。值得注意的是，此次美国 "对等关税"政策中，对于特定产品施行豁免条款，包括部分维生素、氨 基酸、农药产品等。目前来看，我们判断美国关税政策对中国出口占 比较高的化纤、轮胎等商品的需求或存在一定影响，但部分中国轮胎 企业已进行了全球化布局，受到的关税冲击可能有望相应减轻。 对美进口方面：化工品进口自美国的占比约 11.6%，部分原料或受影 响。根据海关总署统计，2024 年我国以化学工业及其相 ...

资本市场动荡金价短期调整，多因素共振或推动黄金上行：在"特朗普交易" （避险情绪上行）与央行购金（去美元中心化+黄金需求提升）双主线加持下， 伦敦现货黄金价格年内已上涨 18%至 3055 美元/盎司（至 4 月 2 日）。美国对 等关税政策出台后，全球资本市场恐慌情绪加大下导致流动性诉求切换，令黄 金价格承压。然而，考虑到对等关税政策或使通货膨胀加剧，这将有效提振黄 金通胀溢价；另一方面，全球地缘政治风险指数及经济政策不确定性已处近125 年来绝对高位及近十年来第二高位，且仍延续上行态势，这将优化黄金避险溢 2025 年 4 月 7 日 看好/维持 有色金属 行业报告 有色金属行业：市场情绪高度挥发， 金属行业定价有望展现强韧性 ——对等关税政策点评 事件：2025 年 4 月 2 日，美国政府宣布对所有国家设立 10%的基准关税，并 对与美国贸易逆差较大的国家和地区征收"对等关税"。其中，对中国输美商 品将在现适用关税税率基础上加征 34%关税，但铜、铝、黄金、镍、锂等金属 不受对等关税影响。2025 年 4 月 4 日，中国国务院宣布反制政策，将对原产 于美国的所有进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加征 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the automotive industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2][18]. Core Insights - The recent announcement of new tariffs by the U.S. government includes a 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods and a specific 25% tariff on imported passenger cars, light trucks, and key components [3]. - China's automotive industry has shown resilience, with a projected export volume of 6.41 million vehicles in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 23% [4]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on China's automotive sector is expected to be minimal, as the U.S. is not a major export market for Chinese vehicles [4]. - Domestic automotive parts manufacturers are likely to mitigate tariff impacts through global production strategies and improved operational efficiencies [5]. - The report emphasizes China's leading position in the electric and intelligent vehicle sectors, driven by advancements in technology and the entry of tech companies like Huawei and Xiaomi [5][6]. Summary by Sections Tariff Analysis - The U.S. has implemented a 10% baseline tariff and a 25% tariff specifically targeting the automotive sector, which includes vehicles and key components [3]. Export Performance - China's automotive exports are expected to reach 641 million units in 2024, with significant contributions from countries like Russia, the UAE, and Brazil [4]. Component Manufacturing - The automotive parts sector is projected to export $93.43 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [5]. - Companies are expected to adapt to tariff challenges through local production and enhanced management efficiency [5][10]. Technological Advancements - The report highlights the importance of smart and electric vehicle technologies, with Chinese companies positioned to lead in these areas [5][6]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on companies that are well-positioned in the smart driving sector, particularly those leveraging ICT technologies [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the metal industry pricing is expected to demonstrate resilience despite high market volatility, driven by recent tariff policies and supply-demand dynamics [2][3] - The copper market is experiencing downward adjustments due to recession expectations, but a tight supply-demand balance is likely to support copper pricing resilience [2] - Gold prices have seen an increase of 18% year-to-date, driven by factors such as geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases, although short-term adjustments are anticipated due to market reactions to tariff policies [3][10] - The implementation of export controls on heavy rare earths by China is expected to lead to a bullish outlook for rare earth prices, exacerbating supply-demand mismatches [11] Summary by Sections Copper Market - The copper market is facing downward pressure due to recession fears, with a significant increase in the price differential between COMEX and LME copper [2] - The global copper supply-demand structure is expected to remain tight in 2025, with processing fees for imported copper concentrate dropping to -26.4 USD/ton, indicating a significant supply shortage [2] - China's refined copper production is projected to reach a record high of 13.644 million tons in 2024, supported by favorable processing fees and high by-product prices [2] Gold Market - Gold prices are under short-term pressure due to increased market fear following the implementation of the tariff policy, but inflationary pressures may boost gold's inflation premium [3][10] - The geopolitical risk index is at a near-historic high, which may enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][10] Rare Earth Market - China's recent export controls on seven categories of heavy rare earths are expected to significantly impact overseas supply and drive prices upward [11] - The export quota growth for rare earths in China has slowed to 5.9%, the lowest in six years, indicating tighter supply conditions [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 26.901 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.344 billion yuan, up 12.75% year-on-year [3]. - The growth in revenue was slightly lower than expected, but the profit growth met the company's targets, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency [3][5]. - The company experienced stable growth in core products, with significant contributions from new products, particularly in the soy sauce, seasoning sauce, and oyster sauce categories [4][5]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the revenue breakdown by product was as follows: soy sauce 13.76 billion yuan (+8.87%), seasoning sauce 2.67 billion yuan (+9.97%), oyster sauce 4.62 billion yuan (+8.56%), and other products 4.09 billion yuan (+16.75%) [4]. - The sales growth was primarily driven by volume increases, despite a slight decline in unit prices for soy sauce and seasoning sauce [4]. - Online sales grew significantly, with a 39.78% increase, while offline sales rose by 8.93% [4]. Cost and Margin Improvement - The company's gross margin improved to 37% in 2024, an increase of 2.26 percentage points, attributed to lower raw material costs, particularly for soybeans [5]. - The average soybean cost is projected to decrease by approximately 12.6% year-on-year in 2024, further enhancing profit margins [5]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 1.29 yuan, 1.42 yuan, and 1.53 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 32, 29, and 27 times [5][7].