Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Ningbo Bank [2][8]. Core Views - Ningbo Bank achieved a revenue of 66.63 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, driven by robust net interest income growth of 17.3% [2][3]. - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) for 2024 was 1.86%, with a year-on-year decline of only 2 basis points, indicating strong resilience compared to peers [3][4]. - Asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.76% at year-end, unchanged from the previous year [4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, Ningbo Bank reported revenues of 66.63 billion, with net profit reaching 27.13 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 6.2% [2][9]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) was 13.59%, a decrease of 1.49 percentage points from the previous year [2]. Loan and Asset Quality - Total assets and loans grew by 15.3% and 17.8% year-on-year, respectively, with corporate loans increasing by 24.4% [2][4]. - The year-end NPL ratio was stable at 0.76%, while the coverage ratio decreased to 389.4% [4][19]. Interest Margin and Income Sources - The net interest margin improved slightly by 1 basis point from the previous quarter, with a year-on-year decline of only 2 basis points [3][14]. - Non-interest income faced challenges, contributing negatively to overall profitability [2][8]. Future Outlook - The bank is expected to maintain high growth in scale and strong interest margin resilience, with revenue projections for 2025 at 71.9 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 7.9% [9][22]. - The report highlights potential risks from rising retail loan defaults and the impact of trade tensions on credit demand [8].

食品饮料行业：预期内需政策或进 一步加码，关注食品饮料防守配置 美国总统特朗普政府的"对等关税"计划大超市场预期，同时各国也纷纷出 台了应对措施。我国国务院关税税则委员会提出，自 2025 年 4 月 10 日 起，对原产于美国的所有进口商品加征 34%关税。在近期的一系列关税变动 下，我们预期国内刺激内需的政策或进一步加码，关注食品饮料板块防守配 置性机会。 食品饮料行业原材料成本或被推高。关税政策推出后，进口美国大豆关税升 至 47%，成本端带动下国内豆粕现货普涨 130-200 元/吨不等。美国进口国内 的农产品原材料中，以豆粕、玉米为主的饲料成本或上涨。饲料价格的上涨， 对肉类价格、乳制品价格或形成推高，进而影响食品饮料企业成本。此外， 白糖、豆油等软商品税率的上涨，或导致这类商品全球范围内价格的上涨， 整体对食品饮料行业原材料成本带来压力。 预期内需政策或进一步加码。在关税变化的背景下，我们对食品饮料行业有 几点判断：1 是国内刺激内需的政策会继续加码，全年宏观经济复苏不确定 性加强；2 是预计部分国际资金会从海外转移回国内，历史上消费板块受到 外资的青睐；3 是食品饮料行业受影响小于出口占比较高的 ...

中国国航（601111.SH）：亏损持续 缩窄，关注后续票价改善 2025 年 4 月 9 日 推荐/维持 中国国航 公司报告 事件：24 年公司实现营收 1666.99 亿元，同比增长 18.14%，归母净利润为-2.37 亿元，较 23 年同期的-10.46 亿元减亏 77.32%，扣非后归母净利润-25.40 亿 元，较 23 年的-31.77 亿元减亏 20.06%。24Q4 公司扣非后净利润-29.72 亿元， 亏损较 23 年同期的-23.04 亿元略有扩大，主要系汇兑损失导致四季度财务费 用 23.11 亿元，较 23Q4 的 10.90 亿元明显提升。 24 年量升价降明显，客运业务毛利率基本持平 23 年：2024 公司实现客运收 入 1517.89 亿元，同比增加 212.72 亿元。拆分看，公司客运运力投放同比提 升 21.74%，客座率同比提升 6.63pct 至 79.85%，但客公里收益下降 12.41% 至 0.5338 元。公司年报显示，24 年因运力投入上升而增加收入 283.73 亿元， 因客座率上升而增加收入 143.92 亿元，因收益水平下降而减少收入 214.93 亿 ...

公 司 研 究 贵州茅台（600519.SH）：24 年完满 收官，25 年迎接新挑战 事件：2024 年公司实现营业总收入 1741.44 亿，同比增长 15.66%，归母净 利润 862.28 亿，同比增长 15.38%。其中，24Q4 营业总收入 510.22 亿， 同比增长 12.77%，归母净利润 254.01 亿，同比增长 16.21%。在 24 年复 杂的环境下，公司完成年初制定的销售目标。 茅台酒和系列酒吨价上行。24 年茅台酒营业收入 1459.28 亿元，同比增长 15.28%。其中茅台酒销量 4.64 万吨，同比增长 10.22%，吨价同比增长 4.59%。吨价的大幅提升主要是因为 23 年底飞天茅台提价，同时生肖酒和精 品茅台放量带来的。24 年系列酒营收 246.84 亿，同比增长 19.65%，系列 酒在 2024Q2 增速达到 42.52%，但是 2024Q3 和 Q4 增速分别为 13.14%和 5.07%，主要是 1935 的投放量在下半年降速所致。24 年系列酒销量 3.69 万 吨，同比增长 18.47%，吨价同比增长 1%。 直营渠道略下滑，线下渠道更为重视。24 年茅 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai, indicating a strong expectation for the company's performance relative to market benchmarks [4]. Core Views - In 2024, Guizhou Moutai achieved total revenue of 174.14 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.23 billion, up 15.38% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 51.02 billion, growing 12.77% year-on-year, with net profit of 25.40 billion, an increase of 16.21% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights the upward trend in the price of Moutai liquor and series liquor, with Moutai liquor revenue reaching 145.93 billion, a 15.28% increase year-on-year, and series liquor revenue at 24.68 billion, up 19.65% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is focusing more on offline channels, with direct sales channel revenue at 74.84 billion, growing 11.32% year-on-year, while the iMoutai platform saw a decline of 10.51% [2]. Financial Forecasts - For 2025, the company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 9%, with a net profit growth of 9.54%, leading to an expected EPS of 75.19. The current stock price corresponds to a valuation of 19.95 times earnings [2][3]. - The financial indicators predict a steady growth trajectory, with revenue expected to reach 189.82 billion in 2025, and net profit projected at 94.45 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 9.54% [3][8]. Company Overview - Guizhou Moutai, established in 1951, is a leading high-end liquor company in China, renowned for its Moutai liquor, which is produced using traditional methods and has a significant global brand presence [5]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 1,940.83 billion, with a 52-week stock price range between 1,748.0 and 1,261.0 [5]. Analyst Insights - The report emphasizes the company's ability to maintain a strong market share in the high-end liquor segment, particularly as the macroeconomic environment improves, suggesting that Guizhou Moutai can achieve growth exceeding the industry average [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China National Aviation (601111.SH) [2][10] Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 166.699 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.14%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -237 million yuan, a reduction in loss of 77.32% compared to the same period in 2023 [3] - The report highlights a significant increase in capacity and passenger load factor, but a decline in passenger kilometer revenue, indicating a trend of volume increase but price decrease across the industry [3][4] - The company is expected to benefit from improvements in ticket prices in 2025, as the focus shifts from increasing load factors to enhancing revenue quality [5][10] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 4.13% in its passenger business, slightly up from the previous year, but still at a low level [5] - The company plans to introduce 47 new aircraft in 2025 while retiring 17, maintaining a low growth rate in supply to alleviate excess capacity pressure [5] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.98 billion, 7.79 billion, and 9.44 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.23, 0.45, and 0.54 yuan [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The recent imposition of tariffs by the U.S. is expected to significantly impact the export of energy storage batteries from China, while the direct export of power batteries and new energy vehicles will be less affected [2][4] - In 2024, China's export scale of power and energy storage batteries is projected to reach 197.1 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 29.2%, where power and energy storage batteries account for 68% and 32% respectively [2] - The tariffs on lithium batteries exported to the U.S. have reached high levels, with power batteries facing a tariff of 82.4% and energy storage batteries at 64.9% [3] - The U.S. battery industry has a high degree of reliance on foreign supply, providing an opportunity for Chinese companies to maintain competitive advantages in the industry [5] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The recent tariffs will lead to a significant increase in export prices for batteries, with energy storage batteries being more affected than power batteries [3][4] - The U.S. is still the largest export market for Chinese lithium batteries, accounting for 25% of total exports [2] Market Dynamics - The U.S. domestic battery production capacity is limited, creating a gap of over 20 GWh, which Chinese companies can fill [5] - The technology for lithium iron phosphate, a key material for energy storage batteries, is primarily controlled by Chinese manufacturers, giving them a competitive edge [5] Future Outlook - Chinese lithium battery companies are actively expanding overseas to mitigate the impact of tariffs, establishing production capacities in regions with lower tax rates [5][10] - The overall market for energy storage batteries is expected to grow, with significant demand projected in the coming years [4]

行 业 研 究 轻工制造行业：关税加征影响出口 产业链，等待关税政策明朗 事件：2025 年 4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署两项关于所谓"对等关税" 的行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴设立 10%的"最低基准关税"，并对某些贸易伙 伴征收更高关税。2025 年 4 月 4 日，中方对原产于美国的所有进口商品加征 34%关税。 "对等关税"对我国及东南亚国家同步加征关税，为轻工出口业务带来不确定 性。特朗普展示的图表显示，对中国产品加征 34%关税，对越南产品征收 46% 关税，对泰国产品征收 36%关税，对印度尼西亚产品征收 32%关税，对马来 西亚产品征收 24%关税。本次关税加征幅度及范围均超过我们的预期。轻工企 业近年有加速东南亚产能的布局，但本次关税的"无差别攻击"，对企业出口 直接贸易及转口贸易均有较大影响，轻工对美出口业务短期面临不确定性。考 虑到轻工为劳动密集型产业，难以回流至人均收入高的美国，我们认为仍需发 展中国家承担生产，后续关税政策或仍有变化可能，如财联社消息：特朗普与 越南、印度和以色列的代表就关税谈判进行了交谈，越南等国存在降关税可能 性。但我们认为即使越南等国与美国达成降税协议 ...

行 业 研 究 纺织服装：短期加征关税有所影响， 长期纺织企业制造优势仍在 事件：美国时间 4 月 2 日特朗普宣布对等关税相关政策并签署总统行政令。 美国将对所有进口商品加征基础 10%的全面关税。部分国家与地区将面临更 高税率。对等税率更高的经济体包括欧盟（20%）、日本（24%）、韩国（25%）、 中国大陆及港澳（34%）、中国台湾（32%）、印度（26%）、泰国（36%）、越 南（46%）、缅甸（44%）等。 我国纺织业为出口导向型，在全球产业链中有着举足轻重的地位。我国是全球 纺织品和服装出口绝对龙头。根据世界贸易组织数据，2023 年全球纺织品出 口总额约为 3240.84 亿美元，其中来自于中国的纺织品出口金额为 1343.36 亿美元，占全球纺织品出口总额的 41.45%；2023 年全球服装出口总额约为 5480.46 亿美元，来自于中国的服装出口金额 1647.43 亿美元，占全球服装出 口总额的 30.06%。除了国内直接出口，头部的服装和鞋制造商海外产能占比 较高，如鞋制造商华利集团产能 100%在境外（主要在越南），服装制造商申洲 国际员工数有 57%位于越南和柬埔寨，而这些国家和地 ...

行 业 研 通信行业：中美关税博弈，通信零 部件国产替代进程有望加速 事件：4月2日，美国总统特朗普宣布，美国对所有贸易伙伴设立10% 的"最低基准关税"，其中对中国征收的"对等关税"税率为34%，对华总 关税将达54%。4月4日，中国宣布对原产于美国的所有进口商品，在 现行适用关税税率基础上加征34%关税。 点评： 美国高关税政策对国内通信光模块、物联网模组板块冲击较大，运营 商、卫星互联网、IDC、工业通信等板块影响较小。目前部分通信企业 尚未发布 2024 年年报，我们整理 2023 年通信上市企业国内收入占比 数据。2023 年通信子行业国内收入占比如下：运营商（100%）、IDC （99%）、工业通信（92%）、卫星互联网（85%）、5G 通信设备（80%）、 光纤光缆（78%）、算力设备（68%）、物联网模组（51%）、光模块（49%）。 尽管短期美国关税政策对光模块、物联网模组行业正常经营造成冲击， 但中长期看，受 AI 产业驱动，光模块、物联网模组行业成长路径确定， 建议继续关注 1.6T 光模块大规模部署进展以及 5G Redcap 模组、算 力模组应用进展。 对等关税下，部分进口依赖度较高 ...