风险提示：经济数据大幅低于预期，外部环境恶化。 （分析师：林阳 执业编码：S1480524080001 电话：021-65465572 ） 2025 年 3 月 4 日星期二 东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 分析师推荐 【东兴策略】多头趋势不改 结构性牛市延续（20250304） 多头趋势不改，短期调整是布局良机。我们是市场中较早提出春季行情将开 启的机构，核心在于我们坚定看好 A 股进入牛市周期，并且在行情的特点上， 我们着重强调了结构性的重要性，我们认为，大科技和消费将会是行情的核 心板块，春季行情随着 DeepSeek 开源和机器人标志性事件催化如期展开，作 为国家未来科技的核心竞争力体现，本轮行情的爆发力较好，板块快速上涨 引发了市场的赚钱效应，上周出现的调整我们并不认为是行情结束的标志， 核心原因是产业仍处于快速发展的初期阶段，技术和热点层出不穷日新月异， 在新技术变革大潮中资本市场永远会走在其中，我们认为，短期调整的主要 原因是热点板块的交易拥挤度较高，市场的资金获利压力增加，涨速过快且 鱼龙混杂，市场需要调整消化获利盘降低交易拥挤度，重新审视产业发展中 的核心机会，我们相信市场的核心公司仍将会随 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Zhonggu Logistics, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future performance [6][14]. Core Views - Zhonggu Logistics is a leading player in the domestic container shipping industry in China, with a robust logistics network and strong profitability despite industry challenges [1][19]. - The company has a high dividend payout ratio, which is attractive to investors, with a commitment to distribute at least 60% of its cumulative distributable profits over the next three years [14][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhonggu Logistics, established in 2003, is a leader in domestic container shipping, integrating rail and road resources to form a comprehensive logistics network [1][7]. - The company has developed a multi-modal logistics system centered on waterway transport, covering major coastal and inland ports across China [2][19]. Business Expansion and Profitability - The company ranks second in terms of capacity and revenue in the domestic container shipping sector, with a strong focus on maintaining high profit margins and stable earnings [3][55]. - Despite industry volatility, Zhonggu has managed to maintain a profit margin of around 13%, showcasing its operational efficiency [47][60]. Competitive Advantages - Zhonggu's profitability is supported by its refined management capabilities and cost advantages in shipbuilding, allowing it to optimize logistics processes and reduce operational costs [4][71]. - The company has invested in a self-developed comprehensive management system that enhances efficiency across the entire logistics chain [65][64]. Industry Demand Drivers - The long-term growth of the domestic container shipping industry is supported by trends such as the shift from road to water transport and the increasing adoption of multi-modal logistics [5][13]. - The report highlights that the proportion of water transport in China's logistics is expected to rise, driven by government initiatives to improve multi-modal transport infrastructure [5][13]. Financial Forecast and Recommendations - The projected net profits for Zhonggu Logistics from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 1.6 billion, 1.77 billion, and 2.04 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios indicating attractive valuations [14][15]. - The company is committed to high shareholder returns, with a dividend yield forecasted to reach 5.2%, 5.7%, and 6.6% over the next three years [14][19].

根据克而瑞的数据，2025 年 2 月 top100 房企销售金额同比增长 1.3%，单月 销售转跌为涨。2 月单月销售同比增速最高的 5 家房企为电建/保利置业/华发/ 越秀/中海。 操盘销售额 top100： 房地产百强房企 1-2 月销售数据点 评：2 月操盘金额同比止跌，市场 延续回稳态势 2025 年 3 月 4 日 看好/维持 房地产 行业报告 1-2 月，top100 房企实现销售金额（操盘）4,157.6 亿元，同比增速为-1.2%， 前值为-3.2%。其中，2 月单月实现销售金额（操盘）1,881.6 亿元，同比增速 为 1.3%，前值为-3.2%。 1-2 月，top10 / top11~top20 / top21~top30 / top31~top50 / top51~top100 房 企的销售金额（操盘）同比增速分别为 0.3%/1.2%/-13.5%/-8.4%/5.1%。其中， 2 月单月同比增速分别为 13.8%/9.8%/-30.3%/-23.9%/-5.8%。 1-2 月，top10 / top11~top20 / top21~top30 / top31~top50 / to ...

中谷物流（603565.SH）：行业低谷彰显 盈利韧性，高分红具备较强吸引力 中谷物流是我国内贸集装箱龙头企业。公司成立于 2003 年，通过持续整合全 国范围内的铁路及公路资源，形成了"公、铁、水"三维物流网络，建立了以 水路运输为核心的多式联运综合物流体系。 公司物流基础设施完善，航线网络覆盖面广 公司长期深耕内贸集运行业，已经通过港口、航线、联运线路的有机结合，构 筑了全方位、多层次的多式联运综合物流体系。港口方面，目前公司的航运网 络覆盖全国 25 个沿海主要港口与超过 50 个内河港口，并采取"双核战略" 对港口资源进行有效配置；航线方面，公司航线通达全国沿海及各江河流域的 主要水系，形成了以"京津冀经济带"、"长江经济带"、"粤港澳大湾区"以及 "一带一路南北海上大通道"构成的"三横一纵"的大海运、大物流体系；公 司铁路快线网则与水路网络形成了有效的互补，强化了公司物流网络的覆盖， 有效提升了公司竞争力。 公司业务规模稳健扩张，利润率高，盈利稳定性强 公司控制运力及营收水平在内贸集装箱航运领域排名第二，仅次于中远海控旗 下的泛亚航运。公司持续强化规模优势，订购的 18 艘 4600TEU 大型内贸 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommended" rating to the company [9]. Core Viewpoints - The company has demonstrated strong capabilities in technological innovation and market expansion, establishing itself as a leading brand in the domestic industrial internet communication sector since its inception in 2001 [3][12]. - The domestic industrial communication market is still in its early stages, currently accounting for only 20% of the global market share [4][23]. - The company is strategically positioning itself to benefit from the accelerated investment in the power grid, with significant growth expected in the electricity sector by 2025 [4][31]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company has evolved through three major phases: "Startup - Deepening - Innovation Leadership," successfully launching the first domestic industrial-grade converter and expanding its product line to include embedded industrial Ethernet modules and switches [3][12]. - It has gained recognition as a "National High-tech Enterprise" and has established a strong brand presence in key sectors such as smart energy, smart cities, smart transportation, and industrial internet [3][12]. Market Analysis - The global industrial internet communication equipment industry generated revenues of $2.65 billion in 2018 and $3.08 billion in 2019, with industrial Ethernet switches being the primary market segment [4][27]. - In 2020, the domestic industrial communication market was valued at 4.21 billion yuan, indicating a 20% share of the global market [4][27]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights that the total investment in the power grid by State Grid and Southern Grid is expected to exceed 825 billion yuan by 2025, marking a significant increase from 2024 [4][31]. - The company’s new power system communication solutions are designed to enhance real-time monitoring and intelligent management of power equipment, which is crucial for improving operational efficiency and reducing energy consumption [4][37]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 357 million yuan, 446 million yuan, and 558 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 34 million yuan, 64 million yuan, and 97 million yuan [5][45]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 56X, 30X, and 19X for the same years [5][45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication industry [1] Core Insights - Alibaba has announced the open-source release of its video generation model, Wanxiang 2.1, which supports both text-to-video and image-to-video tasks, available for global developers [9][22] - Wuhan Anpai Optoelectronics is set to mass-produce a 3.2T ultra-high-speed optical module chip, showcasing advancements in the optical module market [9][22] - The first commercial underwater data center project in China has officially launched in Hainan, marking a significant breakthrough in the integration of marine technology and the digital economy [9][23] Summary by Sections Weekly Overview - During the week of February 24 to February 28, 2025, the communication index (Shenwan) fell by 9.64%, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.72% [3][12] - The top three performing Shenwan primary industries were steel (+3.18%), real estate (+2.22%), and food and beverage (+1.77%) [15] Key Stocks Performance - Key communication stocks during the same week showed varied performance: China Mobile (-2.63%), ZTE Corporation (+19.67%), Zhongtian Technology (+7.73%), Shanghai Hanxun (+5.08%), and Zhongji Xuchuang (+9.05%) [19][20] Industry News Highlights - Alibaba's open-source video generation model, Wanxiang 2.1, is based on the Apache 2.0 license and includes all inference code and weights for two parameter specifications [22] - Wuhan Anpai Optoelectronics is preparing for the mass production of its 3.2T ultra-high-speed optical module chip, aiming to enhance production yield from 90% to 97% [22] - The Hainan Underwater Intelligent Computing Center has been inaugurated, capable of housing over 400 high-performance servers, with computational power equivalent to approximately 30,000 high-end gaming computers [23] Industry Fundamentals - The communication industry comprises 117 listed companies, with a total market value of approximately 48,499.24 billion and a circulating market value of about 22,364.87 billion [5] - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the industry stands at 23.19 [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [3][29] Core Viewpoints - New home sales in February showed signs of stabilization, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.92% for the cumulative sales area from January 1 to February 27, compared to 7.43% previously. The monthly cumulative sales area growth rate was 48.71%, a significant recovery from -5.04% in the previous month [1] - The issuance of special bonds by Guangdong Province for the acquisition of idle land is expected to accelerate land reserves nationwide, alleviating cash flow pressures for real estate companies and boosting market confidence [3] - The cumulative sales area for new and second-hand homes in 14 cities showed a year-on-year growth rate of 11.10% from January 1 to February 27, up from 4.53% previously, with a monthly growth rate of 58.21% compared to -8.92% in the previous month [2] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The sales area of new homes in 32 cities for the week of February 21-27 was 3.369 million square meters, up from 2.727 million square meters the previous week [1] - The sales area of second-hand homes in 15 cities for the same week was 2.228 million square meters, an increase from 1.882 million square meters the previous week [1] Special Bonds and Land Acquisition - Guangdong Province issued a total of 30.71859 billion yuan in special bonds aimed at acquiring idle land, covering 86 projects across 19 cities [3] - The land acquisition initiative is expected to benefit local state-owned enterprises initially, with the potential for more low-cost incremental funds entering the market as the scale of land reserve special bonds increases [3] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the land reserve efforts will have a positive impact on major state-owned and central enterprises, with recommendations for companies such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, China Resources Land, Greentown China, and Yuexiu Property [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [3][29] Core Viewpoints - New home sales in February showed signs of stabilization, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.92% for cumulative sales area in 32 cities from January 1 to February 27, compared to 7.43% previously [1] - The issuance of special bonds by Guangdong Province for the acquisition of idle land is expected to alleviate cash flow pressures for real estate companies and boost market confidence [3] - The cumulative sales area for second-hand homes in 15 cities increased by 34.26% year-on-year, with a monthly growth rate of 92.27% in February [1] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The total sales area of new homes in 32 cities for the week of February 21-27 was 3.369 million square meters, up from 2.727 million square meters the previous week [1] - The cumulative sales area for new homes in 14 cities from January 1 to February 27 showed a year-on-year growth of 11.10%, compared to 4.53% previously [2] Government Initiatives - Guangdong Province issued a total of 30.71859 billion yuan in special bonds aimed at acquiring idle land, covering 86 projects across 19 cities [3] - The land acquisition initiative is expected to benefit local state-owned enterprises and eventually extend to central and private enterprises [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on state-owned and central enterprises with significant land reserves, highlighting companies such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, China Resources Land, Greentown China, and Yuexiu Property as potential beneficiaries [3]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of "AI + consumption" as a key driver for promoting consumption, with the introduction of high-cost-performance domestic large models expected to accelerate application implementation [1] - The report identifies three main pathways through which AI can stimulate discretionary consumption: creating new consumer demand, improving service efficiency and consumer experience, and reducing enterprise costs [1] Industry Analysis Discretionary Consumption Sector - Various sub-sectors within discretionary consumption are expected to benefit from the implementation of AI technology, including smart home appliances, education, human resources, dining, e-commerce, and offline retail [2] - The education sector has seen early adoption of AI technology, with applications such as AI teaching assistants and intelligent tutoring, which enhance service quality and efficiency [2] - In the human resources sector, AI technology improves candidate-job matching efficiency, reduces recruitment costs, and enhances talent training efficiency [3] - The e-commerce sector leverages AI for data processing and cost reduction, with traditional platforms leading in AI technology adoption [7] - Offline retail is experiencing AI applications that enhance service quality and operational efficiency, with various companies either developing their own AI frameworks or relying on specialized tech firms [7] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that AI technology's impact on the consumer sector is primarily through driving sales, improving operational efficiency, and reducing costs [8] - Companies that have quickly adopted AI technology and built large models are expected to benefit first, with industry leaders having stronger financial capabilities and faster response times [8] - Long-term success will depend on how well companies integrate AI technology into their business models to create differentiated competitive advantages [8] Specific Company Insights - Pop Mart, a leader in the trendy toy industry, reported a revenue of 6.3 billion yuan in 2023, with a significant portion coming from proprietary IP sales [10] - The trendy toy market is projected to grow from 60 billion yuan in 2023 to 110.1 billion yuan by 2026, indicating rapid industry expansion [11] - Pop Mart's strong IP operation capabilities have been validated, with multiple IPs generating over 100 million yuan in sales [12] - The company has established a comprehensive channel network in China, with a growing overseas presence, indicating potential for continued growth [13] Financial Projections - Pop Mart is expected to achieve revenues of 12.4 billion, 17.27 billion, and 21.30 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 2.92 billion, 4.14 billion, and 5.18 billion yuan [14]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Sanwang Communication [9]. Core Viewpoints - Sanwang Communication has demonstrated strong capabilities in technology innovation and market expansion, establishing itself as a leading brand in the domestic industrial internet communication sector. The company has evolved through three stages: initial establishment, deepening its market presence, and leading innovation [3][12]. - The domestic industrial communication market is still in its early stages, currently accounting for only 20% of the global market share. In 2020, the domestic market size was approximately 4.21 billion yuan [4][23]. - The report highlights that investment in the power grid is entering an accelerated phase, with significant opportunities for Sanwang Communication as it actively positions itself in power communication solutions. By 2025, total investment from the State Grid and Southern Grid is expected to exceed 825 billion yuan, marking a substantial increase from 2024 [4][31][35]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 2001, Sanwang Communication specializes in industrial internet solutions and has been recognized as a national high-tech enterprise. The company has developed a range of products including industrial-grade converters and embedded industrial Ethernet modules, which are widely used in various sectors such as smart cities and transportation [3][5]. Market Analysis - The global industrial internet communication equipment industry generated revenues of 2.65 billion USD in 2018 and 3.08 billion USD in 2019, with industrial Ethernet switches being the primary market segment. The domestic market was valued at 4.21 billion yuan in 2020, indicating a growing opportunity for Sanwang Communication [4][27]. Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes that the power grid investment is set to accelerate, with the State Grid's investment projected to reach 609.2 billion yuan in 2024 and exceed 650 billion yuan in 2025. This growth is primarily driven by the need for renewable energy integration and smart grid transformation [31][35]. - Sanwang Communication's new power system communication solutions are designed to enhance real-time monitoring and intelligent management of power equipment, which is expected to become a new revenue growth point for the company by 2025 [4][37]. Financial Forecast - The report forecasts Sanwang Communication's revenue to be 357 million yuan in 2024, 446 million yuan in 2025, and 558 million yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 34 million yuan, 64 million yuan, and 97 million yuan respectively. The price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 56X, 30X, and 19X for the same years [5][45].