政府工作报告点评：补贴政策力度 超往年，家装需求有望激发 事件：3 月 5 日，十四届全国人大三次会议在京开幕，政府工作报告提出：安 排超长期特别国债 3000 亿元支持消费品以旧换新。落实和优化休假制度，释 放消费潜力。 复盘 2024 年，政府通过特别国债支持消费的政策重点支持了汽车、家电、家 居。2024 年，为全方位扩大内需，政府安排了 3000 亿元超长期特别国债资金， 其中约 1500 亿元用于支持消费品以旧换新。重点支持的领域包括：1）汽车， 重点支持汽车报废更新和个人消费者乘用车置换更新。例如，对符合条件的汽 车报废更新，补贴标准提高到购买新能源乘用车补贴 2 万元、购买燃油乘用车 补贴 1.5 万元。2）家电，支持家电产品以旧换新，对个人消费者购买 2 级及 以上能效或水效标准的冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调等 8 类家电产品，给予产品 销售价格的 15%补贴；对购买 1 级及以上能效或水效标准的产品，额外再给予 5%的补贴。3）家装，支持旧房装修、厨卫等局部改造、居家适老化改造所用 物品和材料购置，促进智能家居消费。 2024 年以旧换新政策成效显著。2024 年，消费品以旧换新政策带动汽车、家 ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 分析师推荐 【东兴策略】总量双周报：多头趋势不改 结构性牛市延续（20250304） 主要观点： 宏观：国内关注两会。3 月 5 日召开的两会将是市场焦点，届时将公布具体 的财政赤字率（预计 4%）、GDP（预计 5%）以及通胀（预计 2%）的具体目标， 是衡量财政和货币政策宽松程度的重要节点。我们预计财政宽松力度可期， 会议将继续强调全方位扩大国内需求，投资政策可能更倾斜于科技性产业。 此外，美国再次对我国追加 10%关税，并于 3 月 4 日生效，中美竞争叙事仍 然成立。短期内，汇率仍会有所承压。海外方面，市场对美国衰退担忧增加。 A 股策略:重视消费板块投资机会。下周两会将至，刺激消费作为重要政策导 向，市场有较大的政策预期，从家电和消费电子补贴效果来看，对销量有较 好的促进作用，相信在两会上消费会再次成为一个焦点话题。从基本面来看， 消费复苏仍旧是缓慢的过程，消费需要政策出台大力度举措才能够走出复苏 泥潭，这点自上而下已经形成共识，在科技兴国的同时，以消费促进国民经 济发展，从投资导向转向消费导向是大势所趋，我们倾向于消费的边际改善 会逐步显现，目前市场对消费的预期普遍 ...

对 2025 年政府工作报告的几点理解 2025 年 3 月 5 日 宏观经济 深度报告 | | | 投资摘要： 报告特别肯定了 2024 年 9 月 26 日中央政治局会议部署的一揽子增量政策的效果，2024 全年经济呈现前高中低后扬态势。 报告表示，政府深化了对经济工作的规律性认识，进一步认识到党中央集中统一领导是做好经济工作的根本保证。 报告认为 2025 年的困难和挑战主要有（与去年报告相比），对外，海外不确定性加剧，世界百年变局加速演进。无论是海外 需求、全球贸易体系以及全球产业链的稳定都进一步恶化。对内，国内经济向好基础仍然不稳固，有效需求不足。如部分企 业经营困难，一些地方基层财政仍然困难等。与去年报告内容相比，特别提出国内消费不振，将其居于有效需求不足的首位， 同时不再提科技创新能力不强。 报告设定的 2025 年的 GDP 目标为 5%，财政赤字率 4%，以及 CPI 目标 2%，均符合市场预期。受特朗普政府关税政策影 响，今年的出口或有所承压。而今年地产跌幅预计略有收窄，对 GDP 的拖累略好于去年。出口承压和地产企稳或可形成一 定对冲。消费方面，今年对消费的支持力度也强于去年，消费的高基 ...

《答复》中指出，支持上市公司高质量并购重组，是资本市场支持实体经济发 展、支持科技创新、助力国企改革和产业升级的重要举措。近年来证监会有关 并购重组的主要改革创新方式包括：1.全面实行重组注册制；2.出台定向可转 债重组规则；3.延长发股类重组财务资料有效期；4.优化完善重组"小额快速" 审核机制；5.适当提高重组估值包容性；6.持续加强对并购重组市场的调研和 服务。 下一步，证监会将继续推进并购重组市场化改革，特别是涉及新质生产力的公 司有望获得持续性的政策支持。未来拥有关键核心技术的科技型企业并购重组 的"绿色通道"有望开启，优质行业头部公司有望作为并购重组的主体，推动 上市公司之间吸收合并。而开展股份对价分期支付研究，鼓励上市公司综合运 用股份、现金、定向可转债等工具实施并购重组、注入优质资产等创新业务模 式有望逐步落地推广，令更多优质企业能通过并购重组的方式集聚优势资源加 快做大做优，更好服务高水平科技自立自强和现代化产业体系建设等重大国家 战略，助力新质生产力发展。 我们认为，加快并购重组业务的创新发展有助于存量资源和存量资金的优化， 是资本市场供给侧改革的重要组成部分。当前权益市场交易活跃度虽已显 ...

进口依存度高的农产品存在涨价预期。2024 年我国自美国进口量前三位的农 产品分别为大豆、高粱和玉米，分别为 2213.5 万吨、568.3 万吨和 207.3 万吨。 我们参考 24 年实际或预测国内消费量，测算出我国进口农产品对美进口依存 度前三位的产品分别为高粱、大豆和棉花，美国消费量占国内总消费的比重分 别为 59.82%、19.32%和 11.23%。其中进口高粱主要是作为玉米的替代产品， 用作饲料原料；进口大豆则主要用于压榨豆油和加工饲料。本轮加征关税对高 粱、大豆加征 10%的关税，对玉米、棉花加征 15%的关税，并且不排除未来 贸易摩擦激化，进一步加征关税的可能性。这 4 类被加征关税的产品存在一定 涨价预期，特别是进口依存度较高的高粱和大豆预期影响更为明显。 肉品进口依存度较低，关注成本抬升。本次加征关税中涉及到鸡肉、猪肉、牛 肉等畜禽肉类。经测算，将畜禽食用杂碎产品包含在内，我国畜禽肉品进口对 美国依存度不足 1%。预计本次关税加征对于畜禽肉品价格的直接影响较小， 对于养殖产业的影响主要体现在大宗原材料涨价带来的养殖成本抬升。春节 后，畜禽价格回调明显，徘徊在盈亏平衡点上下。饲料成本的抬升 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" indicating an expected performance that is stronger than the market benchmark index by more than 5% [18]. Core Insights - The government work report emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market through various measures, including adjusting restrictive policies based on city-specific conditions, optimizing land use, and enhancing financing mechanisms [1][4]. - The report suggests that the combination of supply and demand optimization, revitalization of existing assets, and the establishment of new operational models will contribute to the recovery of the real estate market [1][4]. Demand Side Summary - The report highlights that city-specific policy adjustments and the ongoing renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing will release both rigid and improved housing demand [2]. - It is anticipated that core cities, particularly first-tier and strong second-tier cities, may further relax household registration or home purchase restrictions, thereby stimulating demand [2]. Supply Side Summary - The report indicates that controlling land supply and optimizing land resource allocation will alleviate inventory pressure, while competition for quality land in core cities will intensify [3]. - The revitalization of existing land and properties is expected to ease cash flow pressures for real estate companies, benefiting local state-owned enterprises initially, and potentially extending to central and private enterprises [3]. Financing Side Summary - The expansion of the scope for re-loaning for affordable housing is expected to enhance the participation of policy banks, local governments, and state-owned enterprises, thereby improving the effectiveness of capital deployment [4]. - The ongoing implementation of the "white list" mechanism is likely to strengthen financing support for quality projects, which may alleviate cash flow risks for private enterprises facing short-term repayment pressures [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the government's focus on the healthy development of the real estate market through various policy tools is likely to stabilize the market gradually [4]. - Short-term attention should be given to valuation recovery opportunities arising from policy easing, while long-term focus should be on leading companies with core city resources and real estate operational capabilities, such as Poly Developments, China Resources Land, and others [4].

电力设备及新能源行业：格局、技 术、应用三重驱动，储能行业迈向 新周期 ——《新型储能制造业高质量发展行动方案》点评 事件：工信部等八部门近日印发了《新型储能制造业高质量发展行动方案》（以 下简称"方案"）。该方案以推动新型储能制造业"高端化、智能化、绿色化" 为核心目标，以"产业体系加速完善、产品性能显著增强、应用领域持续拓展" 为总体要求，提出 2024-2027 年高质量发展路径，旨在提升我国储能产业国际 竞争力，支撑新型能源体系建设。 点评如下： 产业体系加速完善：集中度提升叠加集群化布局。方案提出：目标到 2027 年 培育 3-5 家生态主导型企业，形成"主体集中、区域集聚"的产业格局，推动 长三角、粤港澳等先进产业集群建设；并强化锂/钴/镍等资源保障，支持绿色 回收，引导产能向资源富集区（内蒙古、青海等）聚集，减少低效重复建设。 锂电产业链降本效果显著，储能行业单价持续下降，但也导致部分企业出现了 亏损。我们认为，这一举措有望加速出清落后产能，提升行业集中度，行业头 部企业如宁德时代、区域性头部企业如国轩高科等有望凭借规模和技术等优势 进一步扩张市场份额。 产品性能显著增强：技术升级叠加安全性提 ...

非银行金融行业：支持民企高质量 发展，多元化融资空间打开 2025 年 3 月 5 日 看好/维持 非银行金融 行业报告 事件：近日，中国人民银行、全国工商联、金融监管总局、中国证监会、国家 外汇局联合召开金融支持民营企业高质量发展座谈会。工商银行、人保集团、 中信证券、国担基金等 4 家金融机构及上海证券交易所负责人作经验交流。 点评： 会议提出多项举措，提升民营企业融资的可得性和便利性。重点包括实施好适 度宽松的货币政策，发挥好结构性货币政策工具作用，引导金融机构"一视同 仁"对待各类所有制企业，增加对民营和小微企业信贷投放。同时，强化债券 市场制度建设和产品创新，持续发挥"第二支箭"的撬动引领作用。此外，资 本市场作用同样重要，抓好"科创板八条""服务现代化产业体系十六条""并 购六条"等政策落实落地，支持民营企业通过资本市场发展壮大。金融机构要 强化金融服务能力建设，进一步畅通民营企业股、债、贷等多元化融资渠道， 加大各类金融资源要素投入。 我们认为，民营企业多渠道融资离不开资本市场的大力支持，券商在做好融资 媒介的同时亦承载资金供给职能，而险企在中长期资金供给方面则起到支持和 引导作用，有望带动更多 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 15.534 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.83%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.204 billion RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 2208.66% [3]. - The functional products segment saw a robust revenue growth of 23.54% to 11.622 billion RMB, driven by strong sales of methionine, with both liquid and solid methionine achieving record sales [3]. - The specialty products segment's revenue increased by 3.61% to 3.913 billion RMB, with stable growth in poultry and swine products, strong sales of selenium products, and good performance in palatability and mycotoxin management products [3]. - The company's overall gross margin improved significantly by 8.83% to 30.21%, with the functional products segment's gross margin increasing by 13 percentage points to 26.02% due to high production stability and effective supply chain management [3]. Production Capacity and Market Position - The company has two methionine production platforms located in Europe and Nanjing, China, with a total annual capacity increase of 80,000 tons from the European platform expansion since Q3 2021 and a new liquid methionine plant in Nanjing with an annual capacity of 180,000 tons that commenced operations in September 2022 [4]. - A new solid methionine plant with an annual capacity of 150,000 tons is under construction in Quanzhou, expected to be operational by 2027, to meet global demand and strengthen the company's leadership in the methionine industry [4]. - The company is also exploring the feasibility of establishing another methionine production platform in the dollar zone to mitigate geopolitical risks [4]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.637 billion RMB, 1.852 billion RMB, and 2.025 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.61, 0.69, and 0.75 RMB [5][6]. - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 18, 15, and 14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 15.534 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.83%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.204 billion RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 2208.66% [3]. - The functional products segment saw a robust revenue growth of 23.54% to 11.622 billion RMB, driven by strong sales of methionine, with both liquid and solid methionine achieving record sales [3]. - The specialty products segment's revenue increased by 3.61% to 3.913 billion RMB, with stable growth in poultry and swine products, strong sales of selenium products, and good performance in palatability and mycotoxin management products [3]. - The company's overall gross margin improved significantly by 8.83% to 30.21%, with the functional products segment's gross margin increasing by 13 percentage points to 26.02% due to high production stability and effective supply chain management [3]. Production Capacity and Market Position - The company has two methionine production platforms located in Europe and Nanjing, China, with a total annual capacity increase of 80,000 tons from the European platform expansion since Q3 2021 and a new liquid methionine plant in Nanjing with an annual capacity of 180,000 tons that commenced operations in September 2022 [4]. - A new solid methionine plant with an annual capacity of 150,000 tons is under construction in Quanzhou, expected to be operational by 2027, to meet global demand and strengthen the company's leadership in the methionine industry [4]. - The company is also exploring the feasibility of establishing another methionine production platform in the dollar zone to mitigate geopolitical risks [4]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.637 billion RMB, 1.852 billion RMB, and 2.025 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.61, 0.69, and 0.75 RMB [5]. - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 18, 15, and 14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5].