Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth driven by overseas orders, with a projected revenue increase of 51.52% in 2025 and a net profit growth of 96.25% [1][8] - The company has secured a major contract worth approximately 1 billion RMB for the supply of large monopile foundations for a European offshore wind project, with deliveries expected to start in 2027 [8] - The company has become the first offshore engineering enterprise to pass the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) audit, which is expected to enhance its market share and attract more clients [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to increase from 3,780 million RMB in 2024 to 9,133 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 21.42% [1][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 473.88 million RMB in 2024 to 1,636.57 million RMB in 2027, with a CAGR of about 30.01% [1][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from 0.74 RMB in 2024 to 2.57 RMB in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [1][9] Market Data - The company's closing price is reported at 28.43 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 18,131.21 million RMB [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 38.26 in 2024 to 11.08 in 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [1][9]

证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所定期报告 北交所定期报告 20250514 七部门联合发布文件，着力发展科技金融体 制 2025 年 05 月 14 日 证券分析师 朱洁羽 执业证书：S0600520090004 zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 易申申 执业证书：S0600522100003 yishsh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 余慧勇 执业证书：S0600524080003 yuhy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 薛路熹 执业证书：S0600123070027 xuelx@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 武阿兰 执业证书：S0600124070018 wual@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《险资长期投资试点即将再扩容：中 邮保险资产、国寿资产等正积极争取 三期试点资格》 2025-05-13 《北交再度跑赢大盘，继续看好成长 板块》 2025-05-10 东吴证券研究所 1 / 8 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 资本市场新闻：1）金融监管总局等七部门联合发布《加快构建科技金 融体制 有力支撑高水平科 ...

Macro Strategy - The recent reduction of tariffs between China and the US, from a maximum of 145% to 30%, is expected to lower export uncertainties and may lead to a comprehensive trade framework agreement by the end of the year [1][9][10] - The US has made significant concessions in the negotiations, driven by increasing domestic political and economic pressures, particularly ahead of the midterm elections [1][9] - The trade conflict continues to create high uncertainty in economic data, with the US trade deficit increasing by 14% in March and consumer goods imports reaching a historical high [1][9] Industry Insights - The shift in local state-owned enterprises' bond financing from infrastructure and real estate to technology innovation indicates a growing focus on the tech sector [4][13] - The issuance of bonds for equity or fund investments by local state-owned enterprises has increased by 31.41%, while investments in infrastructure or real estate have decreased by 47.85% [4][13] - The technology sector is becoming a key driver of economic growth, with the digital economy's core industries expected to account for about 10% of GDP by the end of 2024 [10][11] Company Recommendations - Aerospace Hongtu (688066) has seen a downward revision in EPS forecasts for 2025-2026 due to demand-side impacts, but is expected to recover as downstream customer orders improve, maintaining a "buy" rating [7] - Shengye (06069.HK) is poised for accelerated new business development following a strategic placement, with a focus on supply chain finance and fintech services, also maintaining a "buy" rating [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials industry is experiencing a downturn in demand, with revenue continuing to face pressure in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, indicating that profitability remains at historical lows [1][17] - Despite the ongoing challenges, there are signs of easing competition within the industry as supply-side adjustments take place, leading to a stabilization of overall gross margins [1][18] - The cash flow situation has shown improvement, with operating cash flow for the sample companies in the infrastructure and real estate chain reaching 616.28 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 33.8% [19] Summary by Sections 1. Overview - The construction materials industry is at the bottom of the economic cycle, with continued pressure on demand and profitability [1][17] 2. Profit and Loss Analysis - Revenue continues to decline, but the rate of decline has slightly narrowed compared to Q3 2024, primarily due to insufficient new construction projects in infrastructure and real estate [2][17] - The overall gross margin is stabilizing, reflecting a reduction in competitive pressures, particularly in the cement sector where supply-side discipline has improved [2][18] - Return on Equity (ROE) remains at historical lows, but there are signs of improvement in certain sub-sectors like cement and glass fiber [2][18] 3. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - Operating cash flow for the sample companies improved significantly, with a net cash flow of 616.28 billion yuan in Q4 2024, indicating effective cash flow management [19] - The asset-liability ratio remained stable in Q1 2025, reflecting improvements in cash flow and capital expenditure control [19] - Accounts receivable turnover days have increased, indicating that outstanding receivables still need to be addressed [19] 4. Economic Outlook - The demand for bulk construction materials like cement and glass remains under pressure, but there are signs of demand stabilization due to improved pricing strategies [20][21] - The consumer building materials sector continues to face challenges from real estate demand pressures, but some leading companies may see revenue improvements due to low base effects [21] - Infrastructure investment growth is expected to stabilize, supported by fiscal policy measures and increased funding for key projects [21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance was below expectations, with revenue of 1.575 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.39%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 1.39289 billion yuan, an increase in loss of 272.23% year-on-year [2][9] - The company aims to enhance its core product competitiveness and expand its data element services, focusing on digital applications and cloud transformation [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down to 0.48 yuan, with expectations of recovery in business as downstream customer orders resume [9] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 1.575 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 13.39% [10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to be a loss of 1.39289 billion yuan, with a significant increase in loss compared to the previous year [10] - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in revenue, with projections of 2.108 billion yuan in 2025, 2.677 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.298 billion yuan in 2027 [10] - The EPS for 2025 is forecasted at 0.48 yuan, with further increases to 0.81 yuan in 2026 and 1.26 yuan in 2027 [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese science - innovation bond market is in the early stage of development, with characteristics such as small market size, short issuance terms, high ratings, and issuers concentrated in traditional industries. In contrast, the US represents a mature science - innovation bond market [1][5]. - The overall static yield of European and American science - innovation bonds is significantly higher than that of China by about 300BP. The relative return space of European and American science - innovation bonds is more attractive, and the potential capital gains from narrowing spreads are more substantial [4]. - In the future, the Chinese science - innovation bond market may experience rapid growth in market size and move towards the structure of mature overseas markets, such as longer issuance terms, more diversified issuer credit qualifications, and an increase in high - tech and high - tech industry issuers [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 US Science - Innovation Bond Market Status - **Market Size**: As of May 4, 2025, the outstanding balance of US science - innovation bonds was $257.3116 billion, with 4,462 bonds [11]. - **Bond Maturity**: Medium - and long - term bonds dominated, with bonds over 3 years accounting for 75.97% and a weighted average remaining maturity of about 9.97 years [1][13]. - **Coupon Rate**: The average coupon rate was about 4.48%, mainly in the high - rate range, due to high risks of science - innovation enterprises and long bond terms [1][15]. - **Credit Rating**: The rating distribution was wide, mainly medium - to high - rated, with investment - grade bonds accounting for about 76.90%. The market had a certain tolerance for low - rated bonds [1][16]. - **Issuer Industry**: Issuers were mainly from high - tech industries, and the market supported the financing of high - tech industries [1][18]. - **Comparison with China**: The US market was about 10 times larger than China's. US bonds had longer terms, higher financing costs, more medium - quality bonds, and higher "science and technology content" [1][22]. 3.2 Japanese Science - Innovation Bond Market Status - **Market Size**: As of May 4, 2025, the outstanding balance of Japanese science - innovation bonds was $138.341 billion, with 686 bonds [23]. - **Bond Maturity**: Medium - and short - term bonds were the main types, with bonds within 5 years accounting for 58.14% and a weighted average remaining maturity of about 4.67 years [24]. - **Coupon Rate**: The average coupon rate was about 0.86%, mainly in the low - rate range, due to the low - interest - rate environment in Japan [25]. - **Credit Rating**: Ratings were mainly medium - to high - rated, with no low - rated bonds, indicating high credit requirements for issuers [29]. - **Issuer Industry**: Issuers showed a combination of traditional manufacturing and high - tech industries, with more bonds issued in industries with strong technological and industrial bases [30]. - **Comparison with China**: The Japanese market was about 2/3 the size of China's. Japanese bonds had slightly longer terms, lower financing costs, more medium - quality bonds, and a better balance between traditional and emerging industries in terms of "science and technology content" [32]. 3.3 European Science - Innovation Bond Market Status - **Market Size**: As of May 4, 2025, the outstanding balance of European science - innovation bonds was $105.9911 billion, with 2,192 bonds [35]. - **Bond Maturity**: Maturity distribution was relatively balanced, with a weighted average remaining maturity of about 5.45 years. Medium - and short - term bonds were slightly more common [36]. - **Coupon Rate**: The average coupon rate was about 4.08%, with a wide distribution range, mainly in the medium - to high - rate range [37]. - **Credit Rating**: Ratings were widely distributed, mainly medium - rated, with medium - quality bonds being relatively common [41]. - **Issuer Industry**: Issuers were mainly from European advantageous industries, and bond - issuing purposes included both technological innovation and upgrading [42]. - **Comparison with China**: The European market was about 4.5 times larger than China's. European bonds had more evenly distributed terms, higher financing costs, more low - rated bonds, and higher "science and technology content" [3][46]. 3.4 Comparison of Yield Spaces between Overseas and Domestic Science - Innovation Bonds - **Overall Valuation Yield**: As of April 30, 2025, the valuation yields of US and European science - innovation bonds were 5.43% and 4.62% respectively, while those of China and Japan were 2.07% and 1.25% respectively. The high yields in Europe and the US were due to the overlap with high - yield bond markets and higher benchmark interest rates [4][48]. - **Credit Spread**: The credit spreads of European and American science - innovation bonds were 263BP and 126BP respectively, while that of China was 59BP, indicating more attractive relative returns in Europe and the US [4][48]. - **High - Rating Bonds**: After excluding the impact of credit quality, the yield gap between China's high - rating science - innovation bonds and those in Europe and the US significantly narrowed, indicating that diversified credit qualifications and benchmark interest rates had a significant impact on the secondary - market attractiveness of science - innovation bonds [4]. - **Short - and Medium - Term Bonds**: The yield gaps between China's short - and medium - term science - innovation bonds and those in Europe and the US widened as the duration increased, suggesting that the yield space of China's medium - and long - term science - innovation bonds was affected by economic fundamentals and market supply [4]. 3.5 Development Potential of the Chinese Science - Innovation Bond Market - Compared with overseas markets, the Chinese science - innovation bond market is in the early stage of development. In the future, it may experience rapid growth in market size and move towards a structure similar to that of mature overseas markets, such as longer issuance terms, more diversified issuer credit qualifications, and an increase in high - tech and high - tech industry issuers [5].

Core Viewpoints - The medium to long-term trend for gold may still be upward, but the short-term momentum for price increases has weakened [2][4] - Discrepancies in trading perspectives have increased, with gold prices having risen over 100% since November 2021, reaching historical peak levels when adjusted for M2 [2][8] - The narrative of "dollar credit collapse" driving gold prices has been interrupted, as historical patterns show that strong dollar conditions often lead to declines in gold prices [3][19] Trade Agreements and Economic Factors - Recent trade agreements, including the US-UK and US-China agreements, have reduced uncertainty and are expected to positively impact the US economy [4][22] - The US fiscal situation is improving, with tariff revenues accumulating to $13.5 billion since April 2, and projected reductions in the fiscal deficit rate from 6.2% to 5.8% for 2024 [4][26] - The Federal Reserve is approaching a potential interest rate cut, which may strengthen the dollar and further diminish gold's appeal [5][29] Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central bank purchases of gold have been a reason for price increases, but there are inherent risks, including the potential for reduced monetary supply if gold prices fall [31][33] - The increase in global gold reserves since 2008 has not consistently led to sustained price increases, indicating that central bank purchases alone cannot guarantee upward trends in gold prices [31][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company plans to introduce strategic shareholders through a placement, which is expected to accelerate new business development [7] - The placement involves the issuance of up to 17,480,000 shares, representing approximately 1.77% of the company's existing share capital, with expected proceeds of around HKD 209.59 million [7] - The strategic partnership with Jingtai Technology and "Jiao Ge Peng You" is anticipated to enhance the company's new business expansion, leveraging AI technology and e-commerce synergies [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from HKD 976.22 million in 2024 to HKD 1,658.05 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17.51% [7][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from HKD 380.18 million in 2024 to HKD 849.83 million in 2027, with a CAGR of about 23.30% [7][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from HKD 0.38 in 2024 to HKD 0.86 in 2027 [7][8] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is HKD 13.42, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 12,275.28 million [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 32.16 in 2024 to 14.39 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [7][8] Strategic Use of Proceeds - The net proceeds from the placement will primarily be used to accelerate the expansion of platform technology services, focusing on innovative sectors such as e-commerce, AI applications, and robotics [7] - Increased investment in research and development is planned, particularly for the "Sheng Yi Tong Cloud Platform" and AI application commercialization [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company plans to introduce strategic shareholders through a placement, which is expected to accelerate new business development [7] - The placement is oversubscribed, indicating strong demand, with the final amount raised being approximately 209.59 million HKD, which is about 35% more than the initial target [7] - Strategic partnerships with companies like Jingtai Technology and Jiaoge Friends are anticipated to enhance the company's new business expansion and provide technological support for AI development [7] - The funds raised will primarily be used to accelerate the expansion of platform technology services, increase R&D investment, and cover general operational expenses [7] - The company is expected to benefit from high credit quality of its core clients and growth in emerging industries, leading to sustained high growth in the future [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 976.22 million CNY in 2024 to 1,658.05 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17.51% [8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 380.18 million CNY in 2024 to 849.83 million CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of about 23.30% [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.38 CNY in 2024 to 0.86 CNY in 2027 [8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 32.16 in 2024 to 14.39 in 2027, indicating improving valuation [8]

Macro Strategy - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a significant reduction in tariffs, with the highest tariffs dropping from 145% to 30% before May 14, 2025, and a complete cancellation of 91% of retaliatory tariffs, reducing export uncertainties [1][9][10] - The negotiations are driven by increasing political and economic pressures in the US, with a framework agreement expected to be reached within the year, particularly as the midterm elections approach [1][9][10] - The trade conflict has resulted in a 14% month-on-month increase in the US trade deficit for March, with consumer goods imports hitting a record high, indicating a pressing need for tariff reductions from the US side [1][9][10] Industry Insights - The report highlights a shift in local state-owned enterprises' bond financing from infrastructure and real estate projects to technology innovation, with a 31.41% increase in bonds issued for equity or fund investments and a 47.85% decrease for infrastructure or real estate investments in the first four months of 2025 [4][13] - The technology sector is becoming a key driver of economic growth, with the digital economy's core industries expected to contribute around 10% to GDP by the end of 2024, reflecting a significant increase in China's global market share in high-tech manufacturing [11][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of building a robust technological infrastructure to enhance competitiveness and drive domestic demand, particularly in the context of global trade uncertainties [11][13] Company Recommendations - Hai Tian Wei Ye (603288) is projected to maintain steady growth with revenue expectations of 29.7 billion, 32.8 billion, and 36.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% [8] - Zhejiang Dingli (603338) is expected to see a net profit of 2.1 billion, 2.4 billion, and 2.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a current market valuation corresponding to a PE ratio of 12, 10, and 9 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [8] - UBTECH (09880.HK) has signed a comprehensive cooperation agreement with Huawei, which is anticipated to accelerate the application of humanoid robots in real-world scenarios, with revenue forecasts of 2.016 billion, 2.823 billion, and 3.705 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [8]