Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction and decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the introduction of medium- and long-term funds into the market is expected to boost the vitality of the capital market, particularly benefiting state-owned enterprises in the construction sector due to their low valuations and high dividend yields [4][7] - The GDP growth targets for 2025 have been set more realistically across various regions, laying a solid foundation for future development, with most provinces targeting growth rates between 5% and 6% [4][10] - The report highlights that while traffic investment in East China is slowing, traditional infrastructure provinces are maintaining a favorable outlook, with several provinces expected to benefit from high levels of investment in transportation infrastructure [4][14] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33%, while the construction and decoration index fell by 0.44% during the week [32] - Among the construction sub-sectors, steel structure, international engineering, and chemical engineering saw the highest increases [32] Economic Indicators - As of January 26, 2025, 30 provinces have announced their GDP growth targets for 2025, with 21 exceeding the national average [4][10] - The report notes that the overall economic resilience in East and Southwest China remains strong, while Northern regions have seen a slowdown in growth targets [10] Infrastructure Investment - Traffic infrastructure investment in East China is projected to slow down, but provinces like Zhejiang and Sichuan are expected to maintain high investment levels, benefiting local construction companies [14][18] - The report indicates that the total planned investment for Zhejiang in 2025 is projected to be between 350 billion and 360 billion yuan [14] Company Performance - Major state-owned enterprises like China State Construction and China Railway Construction have shown stable performance, with new contract values increasing [23] - The report highlights that while some companies are facing losses, others like China Electric Power Construction are experiencing growth in new contracts [21][23] Debt Issuance - The report tracks the issuance of special bonds, noting a significant increase in issuance volume compared to the previous year [17] - City investment bonds have seen a net financing decrease, indicating potential challenges in funding for local projects [17] Urban Renewal and Real Estate - The report mentions that urban renewal projects have made significant progress, with over 60,000 projects completed in 2024, amounting to an investment of approximately 2.9 trillion yuan [18] - The real estate sector has seen loans for "white list" projects exceed 5.6 trillion yuan, contributing to market stabilization [19]

Group 1 - The "Rural Comprehensive Revitalization Plan (2024-2027)" aims for substantial progress in rural revitalization by 2027 and decisive progress by 2035, focusing on agricultural modernization and improved living conditions in rural areas [7][9] - The plan includes ten specific measures to enhance modern agricultural construction, such as improving food supply security, strengthening agricultural infrastructure, and increasing support for grain production [9] - The Chinese seed industry market size reached approximately 1367.63 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 4.12% [12][15] Group 2 - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the North Exchange's consumer service sector decreased from 34.9X to 34.4X, with a total market value dropping from 771.2 billion yuan to 733.9 billion yuan [26][28] - The median P/E ratio for the broader consumer sector decreased by 3.47% to 36.7X, while the food and agriculture sector's median P/E ratio fell from 29.5X to 28.1X [34][36] - The North Exchange has seven agricultural economy enterprises, including Qiu Le Seed Industry, Run Nong Water Saving, Kang Nong Seed Industry, Tian Ye Co., Knight Dairy, Green Heng Technology, and Hua Xi Technology [24][22] Group 3 - Dayu Biological received a government subsidy of 14 million yuan on January 22, 2025, which is related to asset support [40]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, focusing on the differentiated market of small-displacement off-road vehicles and expansion through acquisitions [4][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 60 million, 79 million, and 100 million RMB for the years 2024-2026, corresponding to P/E ratios of 26.8, 20.6, and 16.2 times [4][7]. - The company differentiates itself from competitors like Chuanfeng Power by focusing on small-displacement non-road off-road vehicles, which presents a unique business opportunity [4][9]. - The company has successfully expanded into the Russian market, which shows high growth potential, and continues to invest in marketing and channel development in Europe and Latin America [4][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends and Export Expectations - In 2024, China produced and sold approximately 18.15 million motorcycles, with a slight decline in production but a modest increase in sales [20]. - The market for all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) is expected to grow steadily, with a projected CAGR of 5.7% from 2024 to 2032 [27]. - Exports of motorcycles to Russia increased by 56% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, indicating a recovery in the export market [34][40]. Product Differentiation and Competitive Advantage - The company specializes in off-road motorcycles and ATVs, with off-road motorcycles accounting for 73% of revenue in the first half of 2024 [43]. - The company has established a strong brand presence in the international market, with over 90% of its sales coming from exports [57]. - The company has a robust supply chain and has developed strong relationships with suppliers, ensuring quality and timely delivery of components [72]. Future Development and Subsidiary Investments - The company has acquired a controlling stake in Chongqing Junchi Motorcycle Co., aiming to implement a dual-brand strategy to fill market gaps [93]. - The establishment of Huari Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is expected to facilitate entry into the new energy product sector [95]. - The "Smart Manufacturing Project" is projected to add 400,000 units of production capacity, enhancing overall output [107]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.72 billion, 5.96 billion, and 7.93 billion RMB from its two-wheeler business from 2024 to 2026, with stable growth in the four-wheeler segment [115]. - The report highlights a favorable comparison with peer companies, with the company's P/E ratios expected to be competitive in the market [117].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The recent inauguration of Trump as the 47th President of the United States has led to the signing of an executive order aimed at reviewing government actions that may hinder domestic energy resource development, particularly focusing on nuclear energy [3][12] - OpenAI's announcement of a $500 billion investment plan for AI infrastructure in the U.S. is expected to create significant demand for power resources, benefiting companies involved in small modular reactors (SMR) and uranium-related investments [3][13] - The performance of the nuclear power sector has been positively influenced by the OpenAI Stargate project, with notable stock price increases for companies like NANO NUCLEAR ENERGY (+80%) and OKLO (+61%) [3][4] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 4.0% this week, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.5 percentage points, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased by 0.6% [6][7] - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies reached $3.58 trillion, reflecting an increase from $3.51 trillion the previous week, with a total trading volume of $205.68 billion [16][18] Key Events - The report highlights the significant fluctuations in cryptocurrency prices following Trump's inauguration, with core assets experiencing volatility but recovering after the announcement of supportive policies for blockchain technology [24] - The report notes that the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is currently in the "Greed" zone, indicating a bullish outlook among investors [18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in small modular reactors (SMR) and uranium resources, such as OKLO, NNE, and LEU, as potential investment opportunities [3][13] - It is recommended to keep an eye on the performance of electric logic mining stocks, which have shown strong performance in the cryptocurrency market [19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the media and internet industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of films during the Spring Festival, the progress of WeChat Mini Store products, and the implementation of AI applications domestically and internationally [4][6] - The WeChat Mini Store has introduced a group gifting feature, enhancing the e-commerce experience within the WeChat ecosystem, which includes various channels such as video accounts, public accounts, search, mini-programs, and communities [5][6] - The report suggests observing the performance of consumer goods during special occasions like the Spring Festival and highlights the growth potential of quality service providers within the WeChat ecosystem [7][8] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - From January 20 to January 24, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.29%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.64%. The media sector ranked 6th among all industries with a growth of 1.95% [12][18] - The report notes that the film industry is expected to recover in 2025, driven by quality content supply, and suggests focusing on key film producers and cinema companies during the Spring Festival [10][11] AI and Application Development - The report highlights the rapid development of AI technologies and their applications across various sectors, suggesting that companies embracing new technologies will benefit from industry opportunities [8][61] - It mentions significant AI investment events, including a notable D-round financing of 500 million RMB for Deep Insight Medical, indicating a vibrant investment landscape in AI [38][39] Gaming and Entertainment - The report tracks the performance of popular mobile games, with "Peacekeeper Elite" and "Honor of Kings" leading the iOS sales charts during the specified period [41][43] - It also notes the strong performance of strategy and tower defense games on platforms like WeChat and QQ, indicating a healthy market for casual gaming [44][46] Film and Television - The total box office for the week was 276 million RMB, with "The Murder Case 3" leading at 91.39 million RMB, accounting for 33.1% of the total box office [51][52] - The report highlights the viewership of TV series, with "Bleaching" achieving a significant market share of 17.38% [54][56] - In the variety show segment, Mango TV and Tencent Video dominate the market, with "Happy Again" and "Fight Laugh Society Season 3" leading in viewership [57][59]

Group 1 - The report highlights that 49 companies from the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) entered the top ten holdings of various funds, with a total market value of 5.418 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2024 [10][11][12] - Among these, Jinbo Biological, Tongli Co., and Better Battery were the most heavily weighted stocks, with Jinbo Biological being held by 35 funds [10][11][12] - The report indicates a significant increase in the scale of passive funds, with the North Certificate 50 Index fund reaching 7.78 billion yuan, a 92.1% increase from the previous quarter [47][49] Group 2 - The report notes that 63 funds included BSE companies in their top ten holdings, with over 50% being non-BSE themed funds, indicating growing market interest [10][12][13] - Active theme funds showed an overall increase in value, outperforming the index, with an average increase of around 26% in the fourth quarter of 2024 [16][17] - The report identifies a trend where funds are favoring companies with low valuations and strong growth potential, such as Jinbo Biological and Su Axis Co. [24][25] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies with positive earnings forecasts, as 31% of the companies that released forecasts showed growth or a turnaround [51][52] - Specific companies like Jinbo Biological, Lin Tai New Materials, and Kangnong Seed Industry are highlighted for their strong growth potential [51][52] - The overall market performance of BSE A-shares saw a decline in PE ratio to 35X, with average daily trading volume dropping to 12.8 billion yuan [53][54] Group 4 - The report mentions that there were no new IPOs during the week, but a total of 24 companies have been listed from January 1, 2024, to January 24, 2025 [59][61] - The report indicates that 29 companies are currently under inquiry for new listings, reflecting ongoing market activity [67]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The shipping fleet is facing aging issues, while the aviation sector is experiencing a peak in inbound and outbound passenger flow [3][10] - The supply in the aviation industry is expected to grow slowly in the long term, with demand benefiting from macroeconomic recovery, leading to a clear trend of supply-demand imbalance that drives the sector's upward elasticity [13] - The second-hand aircraft shortage is expected to persist due to the OEM & MRO dual capacity dilemma in the aircraft industry, with the aviation leasing interest spread likely to continue widening in the context of US debt interest rate cuts [13] - The express delivery sector shows resilient demand, with terminal prices at historically low levels, limiting downward space [16] - The logistics sector is experiencing a favorable competitive landscape, with significant growth opportunities in chemical logistics due to increasing market space and tightening industry entry barriers [16] Summary by Sections Shipping and Vessels - The global dry bulk and tanker fleets are facing aging issues, with the proportion of vessels aged 21 years or older increasing to 13% for dry bulk and 18% for tankers [5] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 4.0% to 2045 points, with specific routes showing varying declines [5] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 14.2% to 901 points, indicating a weakening in dry bulk shipping demand [6] Aviation and Airports - Wuhan Tianhe Airport has officially entered the ranks of international first-class aviation hubs with the opening of its third runway, increasing passenger capacity from 50 million to 63 million annually [9] - The average daily inbound and outbound passenger flow during the Spring Festival is expected to reach 1.85 million, a 9.5% increase from last year [10] - The overall passenger load factor for major airlines was 81.83%, with Spring Airlines leading at 90.81% [42] Express Logistics - The total express delivery volume reached approximately 46.19 billion pieces, a 6.06% increase week-on-week [11] - Major express companies like SF Express and Yunda Express reported significant year-on-year growth in delivery volumes, with SF Express achieving a 19.47% increase [27][37] Supply Chain Logistics - Shenzhen International's logistics park transformation is expected to provide performance elasticity, with high dividends leading to potential value reassessment [16] - The logistics sector is experiencing a favorable competitive landscape, with companies like Debon Logistics and Aneng Logistics showing significant improvements in profitability [16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The fourth quarter performance is stable, and the long-term attributes of the company are still favored [5] - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 to be between 57 billion to 60 billion RMB, indicating a potential decrease of 4.5% to an increase of 0.5% year-on-year [8] - The company has announced a shareholder return plan for 2025-2027, committing to distribute at least 65% of the net profit to shareholders in cash, which is an increase from the previous commitment [8] - The acquisition of Hanjin Energy will increase coal production capacity by 25.7 million tons per year [8] - The company’s ability to resist demand fluctuations in the coal industry is significantly higher than the industry average, suggesting that the market has not fully priced in its long-term attributes [8] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 355.014 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.48% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to be 59.663 billion RMB, with a slight decrease of 0.05% year-on-year [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated to be 3.00 RMB [7] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 13.99% for 2024 [7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 13.01 for 2024 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - Copper prices are experiencing wide fluctuations, driven by macroeconomic factors, with a slight decline this week from 76,500 CNY/ton to 75,900 CNY/ton. The market is awaiting the upcoming FOMC meeting for potential catalysts. Demand remains weak as the Chinese New Year approaches, leading to a decrease in operating rates for copper rods [6][23]. - The aluminum sector is seeing a recovery in profitability as alumina prices drop significantly, with a 12.16% decrease this week. The outlook suggests a potential shortage in electrolytic aluminum this year, indicating upward price potential [6][28]. - Lithium prices are stabilizing with a slight increase of 0.06% to 77,900 CNY/ton, but the supply and demand dynamics remain weak. The market is advised to monitor production rates in March and April to assess demand sustainability [6][48]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Domestic and international macroeconomic factors are influencing the non-ferrous metals market, particularly with the inauguration of President Trump and his focus on inflation and energy prices [13]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector has been underwhelming, with the sector index down 0.91% this week, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index [16][17]. 2. Industrial Metals Copper - This week, London copper prices increased by 0.96%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 0.88%. The copper smelting profit margin is currently negative at -1,465 CNY/ton, indicating a widening loss [21][23]. Aluminum - Both London and Shanghai aluminum prices fell by 0.81%. The aluminum industry is benefiting from improved profit margins due to falling alumina prices, which have decreased by 12.16% [28]. Lead and Zinc - Lead prices saw a slight decline, while zinc prices dropped by 1.88%. The smelting processing fee for zinc increased by 9.30% to 2,350 CNY/ton, with mining profits down to 9,578 CNY/ton [36]. Tin and Nickel - Tin prices increased by 2.29% in London, while nickel prices fell. Domestic nickel iron enterprises reported profits of 6,914 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase [40]. 3. Energy Metals Lithium - Lithium prices are showing slight increases, with lithium carbonate at 77,900 CNY/ton. The profit margin for lithium extraction from spodumene has decreased by 19.97% [48]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices remain stable, with domestic cobalt prices holding at 163,000 CNY/ton. The profit margin for domestic smelting plants has increased to 44,900 CNY/ton [52].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the alumina price may reach a turning point, and the electrolytic aluminum sector is entering a long-cycle narrative [5] - The supply of bauxite is concentrated, leading to increased disturbances in the market [4] - The supply-demand balance for electrolytic aluminum is shifting from surplus to shortage, indicating a potential price increase [5] Summary by Sections 1. Aluminum Industry Chain Overview - The aluminum industry chain consists of upstream resources and raw materials, electrolytic aluminum, primary processing, and end applications [9] 2. Bauxite: Supply Concentration and Increased Disturbances - Global bauxite reserves are estimated at 2.783 billion tons, with Guinea, Australia, and Brazil holding 58.2% of the total [20] - In 2023, global bauxite production reached 400 million tons, with Australia, Guinea, and China accounting for 72.0% of the total output [21] - China's bauxite supply is highly dependent on imports, with 68% of its supply coming from abroad, primarily from Guinea and Australia [28] - The report notes that disturbances in supply due to environmental and political factors are increasing, which may lead to rising prices [38] 3. Alumina: Price Turning Point Approaching - The report anticipates a 12.8% increase in alumina production capacity by 2025, with an effective output of approximately 5.45 million tons [53] - The alumina market has shown signs of easing shortages since November 2024, suggesting a potential price turning point [54] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum: Supply Rigidity Becomes Consensus - The report indicates that the electrolytic aluminum sector is reaching a production capacity ceiling, with a total capacity of 45.71 million tons and an operating capacity of 43.53 million tons [61] - The projected demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow by 3% in 2025, driven by sectors such as real estate, transportation, and power electronics [65] - The supply-demand balance for electrolytic aluminum is projected to shift from surplus to shortage in the coming years, with expected balances of 171, 53, and -39 thousand tons from 2024 to 2026 [70] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the electrolytic aluminum sector, particularly companies with low alumina self-sufficiency and significant electrolytic aluminum production growth, such as Yun Aluminum Co., Shenhuo Co., and China Aluminum [82]