从各区域内2500tpd及以下产线占比看，西北37%、西南33% 1、截至2024Q3，全国熟料设计产能16.7亿吨（按照300天计算），其中2500tpd及以下产能为3.58亿吨，占比 21%。 【水泥】近来，多地政府发文要求/鼓励淘汰2500tpd以下熟料产能，如山东、浙江、福建、四川、重庆等省。 1、截至2024Q3，全国熟料设计产能16.7亿吨（按照300天计算），其中2500tpd及以下产能为3.58亿吨，占比 21%。 分区域看，西南和西北2500tpd及以下小线较多，合计1.82亿吨。 【水泥】近来，多地政府发文要求/鼓励淘汰2500tpd以下熟料产能，如山东、浙江、福建、四川、重庆等省。 从各区域内2500tpd及以下产线占比看，西北37%、西南33%、华北28%、东北17%、华东14%、中南11%。 整体看，西南和北方小线占比较高。 2、早在几年前，产业对于淘汰2500及以下熟料产线的呼吁就存在，各地政府也出台相应政策。 但考虑到部分区域2500tpd及以下产线存在较强经济合理性，政策并没有得到完全强力执行，但各地也通过搬迁/产 能置换等实现了一定优化。 未来看，伴随着新一轮行政去产能推进， ...

造纸专家交流总结 当前我国木片进口依赖短期内无法解决，部分企业研发竹浆替代。 造纸专家交流总结 当前我国木片进口依赖短期内无法解决，部分企业研发竹浆替代。 造纸：1-11月纸产量同比+10%，量增价减趋势延续至11月，此后短期供给事件驱动纸价底部回暖。 产业链跟踪：受浆价波动及汇率影响，浆贸压力较大；纸贸1-11月经营承压，12月凭借低价库存盈利回暖（当前 库存约1个月、正常库存水平）。 木片：1-11月木片进口量同比+23%，价格整体未出现剧烈波动，主要系进口国经济状况不存在涨价基础以及地产 疲软导致原木需求减弱。 木浆：1-11月木浆进口量同比-6%，针/阔价差已达1800元/吨（通常极限为1200-1500元），部分纸企加速优化工艺 以阔替针，25年预计价差收窄，但不排除通胀周期商品价 木片：1-11月木片进口量同比+23%，价格整体未出现剧烈波动，主要系进口国经济状况不存在涨价基础以及地产 疲软导致原木需求减弱。 木浆：1-11月木浆进口量同比-6%，针/阔价差已达1800元/吨（通常极限为1200-1500元），部分纸企加速优化工艺 以阔替针，25年预计价差收窄，但不排除通胀周期商品价格反弹（重点关 ...

Industry/Company Involved - **Humanoid Robots** - **Robot Dogs** - **Specific Companies** - Boston Dynamics - Tesla - Huawei -宇树科技 - 云深处 - 三花智控 - 拓普集团 - 北特科技 - 贝斯特 - 五洲新春 - 双林股份 - 震裕科技 - 恒立液压 - 鸣志电器 - 兆威机电 - 步科股份 - 伟创电气 - 绿的谐波 - 双环传动 - 中大力德 - 柯力传感 - 安培龙 - 汉威科技 - 旭升集团 - 爱柯迪 - 比亚迪 - 禾川科技 - 中坚科技 - SanctuaryAI Key Points and Arguments - **Humanoid Robots** - Boston Dynamics successfully replicated the high-difficulty backflip action of the hydraulic version Atlas with the electric-driven version Atlas [doc id='1']. - Focus on Tesla's fixed-point/production node and the new direction of the next generation of robot technology [doc id='1']. - Pay attention to the breakthroughs in the domestic robot industry chain, such as Huawei [doc id='1']. - **Robot Dogs** - The market has recently focused on robot dogs, and the robot industry has shifted from humanoid robots to robot dogs [doc id='3']. - As one of the best carriers of embodied intelligence, robot dogs have huge potential in commercial, industrial, and special scenarios [doc id='3']. - Yutong's product upgrade and Yunshen's delivery of the Singapore power grid order have achieved industry-level landing, and the domestic industry chain is expected to continue to benefit [doc id='3']. - The domestic robot/robot dog industry chain includes Huawei, BYD, Hechuang Technology, Zhongjian Technology, Yutong Technology, and Yunshen [doc id='3']. - Yutong's upgraded version B2-W robot dog can complete Thomas full rotation, dive down steep slopes, cross forests, and grasslands, and can carry an adult male [doc id='4']. - The performance of the robot dog has been comprehensively upgraded after one year of mass production (the iteration speed has accelerated) [doc id='7']. - **Industry Trends** - The development of robot dogs is accelerating, and the industrialization process is accelerating [doc id='4']. - The integration of touch sensors in dexterous hands will further improve the operation ability and accuracy of robots [doc id='5']. - The technology of robot dogs and humanoid robots has similarities, and the industry chains have cross-sections, which promote each other and optimize iteratively [doc id='6']. Other Important Content - **Robot Dog Industry Chain** - Focus on the breakthroughs in the industry chain of leading robot dog manufacturers such as Yutong and Yunshen, as well as the progress of parts manufacturers [doc id='2']. - **Humanoid Robot Industry Chain** - The humanoid robot industry chain includes T chain actuators, high-barrier screw links, motor links, reducer links, high-value and core component sensor links, lightweight parts, and domestic robot/robot dog industry chains [doc id='3']. - **New Products** - Zhenqing Robot launched a lightweight, high-dynamic, fully open embodied intelligent body PM01 yesterday, with commercial version/education version prices starting at 88,000 yuan [doc id='5']. - SanctuaryAI launched a new generation of touch sensor technology, and the dexterous hand can perceive the tiny pressure of the outside world [doc id='5']. - **Performance Improvement** - The electric drive scheme can achieve rapid performance improvement and gradually narrow the gap with the high-movement ability hydraulic scheme [doc id='8'].

太阳扩大专项债券投向领域和用作项目资本金范围，有望更好发挥政府资金撬动效用。 玫瑰【国盛建筑何亚轩】专项债领域宽信用强化，财政发力持续加码，继续推荐低估值建筑央国企！ 《》明确要加快完善专项债券资金监管机制，实行专户管理、专款专用，严防挤占、截留和挪用；同时加大监督 问责力度，坚决遏制违规使用问题，重申依法不得用于经常性支出，严禁用于发放工资、养老金及支付单位运行 经费、债务利息等。 太阳扩大专项债券投向领域和用作项目资本金范围，有望更好发挥政府资金撬动效用。 玫瑰【国盛建筑何亚轩】专项债领域宽信用强化，财政发力持续加码，继续推荐低估值建筑央国企！ 《》明确实行专项债投向领域"负面清单"管理，未纳入"负面清单"均可申请资金；同时专项债券用作项目资本金范 围扩充，增加引入低空经济等新兴产业基建等回报更好的领域，同时提高用作项目资本金的比例，由25%提升至 30%，有望更好发挥政府资金杠杆作用，撬动更多配套融资，提升专项债使用效率。 《》明确下放专项债券项目审核权限，选择部分地区开展专项债项目"自审自发"试点，支持经济大省发挥挑大梁 作用，同时打通在建项目续发专项债券"绿色通道"，已通过发改委和财政部审核在建需要 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The military AI chip demand is experiencing a significant surge, driven by advancements in military applications of AI technology, including intelligence gathering, target detection, command decision-making, and unmanned systems, enhancing combat effectiveness and operational efficiency [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - The integration of AI technologies in warfare, such as drones and cruise missiles, is expected to substantially reduce military expenditures and significantly lower personnel casualties [1][3]. - The current trend in military technology is towards increased automation and unmanned systems, with a notable rise in the deployment of drones, unmanned boats, and robots [1][4]. - The demand for high-performance AI chips is growing, particularly for high computing power, flexibility, and low power consumption, which are essential for building robust computing infrastructures [1]. Technological Developments - The company is testing new generation CPU+FPGA+AI integrated architecture products based on 1xnm FinFET advanced process, with samples being delivered to select customers [2]. - The company has developed high-performance MCU and general MCU products suitable for embedded AI applications, alongside SoC projects aimed at high bandwidth signal processing, which can be utilized for AI hardware acceleration and data processing [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The U.S. has elevated military AI to a national strategic level, planning to establish an intelligent warfare support system and intelligent combat system by 2035, with full intelligence integration of combat platforms and support systems by 2050 [5]. - The UK aims to leverage AI technology for decision-making advantages and enhance national security through collaboration with allies in the AI technology sector [5]. Potential Beneficiaries - Notable companies benefiting from this trend include: - **Ziguang Guowei**: A leading domestic special chip manufacturer with products including dedicated ASIC/SoC chips, currently promoting AI-related SoC products [5]. - **Fudan Microelectronics**: Known for its FPGA and reconfigurable chip products aimed at AI applications [5]. Risk Factors - There is a risk of downstream demand not meeting expectations, which could impact the growth of the military AI chip market [4].

CME12月挖机预测销量速评：国内维持20%+高增，出口增速降低但环比继续提升 事件：CME预估12月挖机销量18500台，同比+11%；其中国内9400台，同比+23%；出口9100台，同比+0.3%。 以预测值计算，2024年中国挖掘机械市场需求20万台左右，同比+3%。 其中国内约10万台左右，同比+12%；出口10万台，同比-5%。 分析 CME12月挖机预测销量速评：国内维持20%+高增，出口增速降低但环比继续提升 事件：CME预估12月挖机销量18500台，同比+11%；其中国内9400台，同比+23%；出口9100台，同比+0.3%。 以预测值计算，2024年中国挖掘机械市场需求20万台左右，同比+3%。 其中国内约10万台左右，同比+12%；出口10万台，同比-5%。 分析：根据CME预测，12月挖机国内市场同比维持20%以上高增长，延续强劲的复苏趋势；出口增速降低至0%左 右，但环比提升6%，绝对值为下半年最高水平。 全年情况来看，受益于水利、农村等领域带动的小挖增量需求，以及更新换代大周期下中大挖需求的回暖，全年 挖机国内销量已实现回升，在换机大周期以及更新换代、化债等政策刺激下，我们预计 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - The conference call discusses **Dongyangguang** and its involvement in the **refrigerant** and **layered foil** industries, as well as its collaboration with **Zhongji Xuchuang** [1][8]. Core Points and Arguments - **Collaboration with Zhongji Xuchuang**: The company is expected to enhance cooperation with Zhongji Xuchuang, focusing on data center liquid cooling, optical devices, thermal management, and electronic chemicals, aiming to create new growth points [3][12]. - **Refrigerant Pricing**: After quota determination, domestic refrigerant prices have stabilized, while the export price of R32 has increased [4]. The company anticipates a long-term price elasticity due to supply-demand mismatches, particularly for the third-generation refrigerants, which are expected to have a relatively tight supply and potential for price increases [15][16]. - **Market Potential for Layered Foil Capacitors**: The global aluminum capacitor market is projected to be approximately **61.6 billion** yuan in 2023. If layered foil capacitors replace 30% of mid-to-high voltage aluminum capacitors, the corresponding market space could reach nearly **20 billion** yuan [5]. - **Production Capacity**: The company has established a market and technical promotion team and is actively constructing a full industry chain for "core components, key raw materials, and efficient liquid cooling systems" [6][18]. The first phase of the layered foil project in Ulanqab, Inner Mongolia, is expected to reach an annual production capacity of **20 million square meters** [11]. - **Profit Forecast**: The company's net profit forecast for 2024-2026 is **419 million**, **1.272 billion**, and **1.905 billion** yuan, respectively, with a target price of **13 yuan** and a maintained "buy" rating [19]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Equity Transfer**: Element Fund plans to transfer its **5.00%** stake in Dongyangguang at a price of **8.33 yuan** per share through an agreement with Fenghe Yinghui [7][14]. - **Regulatory Changes**: The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced a reduction of **49,900 tons** in the second-generation refrigerant quota and an increase of **43,400 tons** in the third-generation refrigerant quota for 2025 [9].

将低空经济、量子科技商业航天等新兴产业基础设施算力设备及辅助设备基础设施等纳入专项债券用作项目资本 金范围。 20241225复盘 人工智能： 1. 五部门：打造一批示范带动性强的人工智能创新应用。 军工： 光威订单超预期。 宏观： 国办印发《关于优化完善地方政府专项债券管理机制的意见》，首次明确了专项债扩围支持的方向。 2. 盘中传闻910C明年Q2大规模起量 将低空经济、量子科技商业航天等新兴产业基础设施算力设备及辅助设备基础设施等纳入专项债券用作项目资本 金范围。 机器人： 1. 宇树科技发布升级版B2-W工业机器狗。 退市： *st卓朗因为业绩造假将被退市。 低空： 盘中传闻12月25日，发改委召开交通、民航、工信、公安等部门召开相关会议，宣布低空经济司挂牌成立。 储能： 近30家企业参与，储能行业将召开防止内卷式竟争闭门研讨会。 全A指数走得很不好，向下反包，有被微盘拖累到，但微盘也有短暂企稳的迹象，超额也跌光了，今年还有4个交 易日，把4天看作一个整体的话，应该不会下跌太多，今年稳住这样收官也不错了，看上证、50、300走势稳定， 微盘止跌回升的话，各大指数就全回来了。 3. 题材方面，活口仍然在 ...

出口数据如何解读？ 出口数据如何解读？ 不过国内新能源的单车利润高于座位客车（油车居多），对利润有正向帮助。 公司11月总销量3736台，环比增加500台。 新能源出口确实9月以来横在200台，需要达成全年2600台目标的压力延到了1 公司11月总销量3736台，环比增加500台。 新能源出口确实9月以来横在200台，需要达成全年2600台目标的压力延到了12月，12月需要做到700台，目前看公 司在手订单和交付预测，有信心完成。 出口油车利润也比较高，一台车在8-10万净利润。 由于前期公交车供应链紧缺，交付挤压到了11、12月，国内新能源1200台应该是开始加速了（前几个月行业新能 源公交车也就2000台），但宇通11月国内销量环比增加幅度并不大，可能和座位客车下降有关。 宇通也在寻求底盘出口的新合作方式。 【宇通客车】最新观点：当下时间点高股息提供强安全边际 11月出口销量1250台，环比+150台，出口新能源200+，略微提升；国内销量2500台，环比+365台，其中新能源 1200台，公交交付开始提升。 【宇通客车】最新观点：当下时间点高股息提供强安全边际 11月出口销量1250台，环比+150台， ...

事件： 多晶硅期货将于12月26日（星期四）在广期所上市交易，PS2506-PS2512合约挂牌基准价均为38600元/吨。 点评： 一、我们认为多晶硅期货合约挂牌基准价低于合理价格区间（低于当前现货价格且现货价也普遍亏现金），周四 开盘当天预计价格趋势将以上涨为主（涨停板幅度+14%，对应4 12月19日光伏协会公布最新不含税、折旧等的的硅料最低成本价为34368元/吨，折算含税价约38836元/吨，与多晶 硅期货合约挂牌基准价相差较小。 多晶硅期货周四上市：合约挂牌基准价低于合理价格区间，预计上市后对硅料价格有一定推动作用 多晶硅期货周四上市：合约挂牌基准价低于合理价格区间，预计上市后对硅料价格有一定推动作用 事件： 多晶硅期货将于12月26日（星期四）在广期所上市交易，PS2506-PS2512合约挂牌基准价均为38600元/吨。 点评： 一、我们认为多晶硅期货合约挂牌基准价低于合理价格区间（低于当前现货价格且现货价也普遍亏现金），周四 开盘当天预计价格趋势将以上涨为主（涨停板幅度+14%，对应4.4W/吨）。 二、多晶硅合约挂牌基准价可能是参考了光伏协会最新发布的最低成本价。 三、合约价格展望：预计明 ...