事件：根据氟务在线，制冷剂外贸市场新单报盘迎来新一轮涨幅，据企业反馈当前R32、R125、R410、R134a企业 外贸订单报价均上调至42000元/吨以上，新年执行，对于部分品种而言涨幅十分明显。 事件：根据氟务在线，制冷剂外贸市场新单报盘迎来新一轮涨幅，据企业反馈当前R32、R125、R410、R134a企业 外贸订单报价均上调至42000元/吨以上，新年执行，对于部分品种而言涨幅十分明显。 库存去化后的，2024年底外贸价格开始启动上涨。 我们测算，本次价格上涨巨化制冷剂时点年化利润从39亿上涨至46亿，三美16亿上涨至20亿。 其中，外盘R410a-R125企业提升报盘有显著提升，前期R410a外贸在3w左右，对应R125在2.3w左右，新年对外内 外趋同。 其中，外盘R410a-R125企业提升报盘有显著提升，前期R410a外贸在3w左右，对应R125在2.3w左右，新年对外内 外趋同。 2025年伴随着Q1主要品种外贸价格的全线齐平，或奠定后续外贸带涨的基调。 2024年制冷剂主要趋势在于内贸，尤其是R32，而外贸与内贸存在显著价差，主要由于2024年行业有库存。 行业长期价值投资空间仍然显著，外 ...

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The company aims to maintain a future revenue CAGR of 25% [1][2] Key Development Focus - The primary development focus is on cross-border channels such as Amazon and self-built sites, with plans to expand into fabric categories and continuously improve the product matrix [3][9] Strategic Initiatives - Plans to accelerate overseas warehousing in the US and Australia to enhance product delivery, expand reach, and improve order capacity [4][8] - Continuous development on Amazon and independent sites, along with efforts to establish overseas offline brands by entering existing supermarkets and curtain stores, while also improving domestic finished product channel layouts through factory stores [4][8] Market Potential - There is significant growth potential, with over $1 billion in independent brand sites for shading curtains already established overseas [5] Profitability Insights - The profitability of overseas fabric is over 20%, while domestic fabric profitability is lower, leading to an overall fabric profitability of approximately 20% [6] - The comprehensive net profit margin for cross-border e-commerce is around 15%, with independent sites being smaller in scale but already achieving breakeven; domestic finished products and home goods are facing profitability pressures [6] Industry Concerns - There is a weak concern regarding tariffs within the industry [7] - The company is proactively addressing tariff risks by initially establishing overseas warehouses and considering the setup of overseas processing plants in regions with minimal tariff risks [11] Competitive Advantage - The company’s products are characterized by customization and are priced significantly lower than overseas brands, benefiting from domestic labor and industrial chain resource advantages, maintaining strong competitiveness even after tariff increases [12] Conclusion - The company has positioned itself as a leading seller on Amazon, with broad growth potential through channel and regional expansion [10]

丸美股份：投资标的摩漾生物羟基磷灰石产品墨西哥获证，预计即将拿到国内首证 产品特点：中国人自主研发，树莓状通孔结构， 丸美股份：投资标的摩漾生物羟基磷灰石产品墨西哥获证，预计即将拿到国内首证 股权关系：公司旗下投资基金青岛茂达，持股摩漾生物9.6%股权 摩漾生物的高端医美产品"幽抚兰羟基磷酸钙微球面部填充剂" 获墨西哥COFEPRIS最高风险等级医疗器械认证，本次获证是墨西哥国内继德国MERZ公司Radiesse之后，第二款羟 基磷酸钙微球面部填充剂产品获批。 产品特点：中国人自主研发，树莓状通孔结构，可精准控制在12±1个月内完全降解吸收。 后续规划：预计也即将在中国国内获批，在2025年准入欧美日澳等国际主流医美市场。 目前国内尚无合规的医美适应症的羟基磷灰石三类械，目前获批三类械均为医疗适应症（骨科等），摩漾生物如 在中国获批则为医美首证，抢占再生医美市场（30亿+）。 股权关系：公司旗下投资基金青岛茂达，持股摩漾生物9.6%股权 摩漾生物的高端医美产品"幽抚兰羟基磷酸钙微球面部填充剂" 获墨西哥COFEPRIS最高风险等级医疗器械认证，本次获证是墨西哥国内继德国MERZ公司Radiesse之后，第二款 ...

Key Points Industry or Company Involved - **Industry**: AI and computing power industry - **Company**: Zhongke Sunway Information Industry Co., Ltd. (Sunway) Core Views and Arguments - **Sunway's Investment Value**: Sunway is a key player in the domestic AI computing power industry, benefiting from the strong demand for domestic AI computing power [2][4]. - **Market Leadership in Liquid Cooling**: Sunway has a 61.3% market share in liquid cooling infrastructure, ranking first in the industry for three consecutive years [3]. - **Comprehensive Layout of Domestic AI Computing Power Industry**: Sunway has a comprehensive layout in the domestic AI computing power industry, covering various aspects such as hardware, software, and infrastructure [2][6][8]. - **Leading Products and Technologies**: Sunway has developed leading products and technologies in the industry, such as liquid cooling, storage, and AI software [1][5][10]. Other Important Content - **Liquid Cooling Technology**: Sunway has been involved in the liquid cooling technology field since 2011, and has launched multiple products in the cold plate and immersion cooling fields. Their immersion phase change liquid cooling computers have effectively reduced the PUE value of data centers to 1.04 [1]. - **Storage Products**: Sunway's subsidiary, Sunway Storage, has developed the world's first billion IOPS centralized all-flash storage FlashNexus and distributed storage ParaStor, which can meet the extreme access performance requirements of AI large model training and inference stages [5]. - **Intelligent Computing Centers**: Sunway has proactively invested in the intelligent computing center field since 2021, and has successfully put into operation 5A-level intelligent computing centers in Hefei, Changsha, Beijing, Qingdao, and other places [6]. - **National Integrated Computing Power Service Platform**: Sunway is actively building a "National Integrated Computing Power Service Platform" to connect various computing power infrastructure, optimize scheduling management, and participate in the construction and operation of computing power interconnection service platforms in cities such as Beijing, Chongqing, and Qingdao [6]. - **Industry Ecosystem**: Sunway has established a diverse, collaborative, and efficient artificial intelligence ecosystem by fully cooperating with leading domestic AI framework, large model, and cloud service manufacturers, with more than 3,000 partners [7]. - **Chip and Server**: Sunway holds a 27.96% equity stake in Haiguang Information, a leading domestic CPU and GPU manufacturer. It has developed high-end computing products for various AI application scenarios, such as deep learning, large model training, edge intelligent inference, and AI for Science [8]. - **AI Basic Software**: In 2024, Sunway launched the DAS artificial intelligence basic software system, which can provide full-stack AI optimization capabilities. The company also launched the "Sunway AI Model Repository", integrating more than 100 key scenario applications and more than 100 optimized models, providing users with one-stop services such as model download and quick adaptation to various application scenarios, and continuously expanding the model library scale. It also established the OpenDAS open-source space [10].

Key Points Industry/Company Involved 1. **Company**: Lianfang Technology, Yutong Technology 2. **Industry**: Robotics, Solid-state batteries, Calcium钛矿, Display panels Core Views and Arguments 1. **Lianfang Technology's Technical Strength**: Lianfang Technology has deep technical expertise in intelligent mold head actuators, hollow cup motors, and frameless torque motor controllers [1][2]. 2. **Yutong Technology's Market Position**: Yutong Technology is one of the leading domestic robotics companies and has achieved commercialization in both humanoid robots and quadruped dogs [2]. 3. **Strategic Cooperation**: Lianfang Technology and Yutong Technology have signed a strategic cooperation agreement to collaborate on robotics hardware and software technology, as well as the industrialization of robotics [1][4]. 4. **Yutong Technology's Product Launches**: Yutong Technology has launched several products, including humanoid robot G1, quadruped dog B2-W, and has achieved significant market share in the global quadruped dog market [2]. 5. **Performance Pressure**: The company's performance is under pressure due to low downstream production rates and reduced capital expenditure意愿 in the traditional lithium battery field [2]. 6. **Upcoming Performance Turnaround**: The company expects a performance turnaround in the second half of 2025, driven by the recovery of downstream production rates, positive progress with Korean customers, and a 6-8 month revenue recognition period [3]. 7. **Solid-state Battery Progress**: The company has made progress in the front-end equipment for solid-state batteries, with orders for dry electrode mixing, fiberization, and roller pressing processes, as well as wet process orders from leading domestic solid-state battery companies [3]. 8. **Calcium钛矿 Progress**: The company has achieved the first domestic shipment of calcium钛矿 slot coating GW-level equipment and has received orders from Jiaodong, as well as orders for silicon calcium钛矿 tandem megawatt-level equipment from Huasheng and Guodian Investment [3]. 9. **Display Panel Progress**: The company has achieved breakthroughs in mold head and small-size coating machine orders, marking the 0-1 substitution of domestic products [3]. Other Important Content - **Partnerships**: The company has partnerships with companies such as BYD, CATL, and Huawei [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The company expects strong growth in the solid-state battery, calcium钛矿, and display panel markets [3].

关注商用车板块，胜率有保底，赔率有潜在超预期 随着行业销量的回升，以旧换新政策的生效（12月终端销量环比有望+20%），市场对商用车版块儿的关注度有所 提升，并开始对明年的预期进行定价。 我们从胜率与赔率的角度进行分析，阐述我们当前对行业的观点。 胜率有保底： 一、当前行业重点头部公司股息率在5-7%，股息率可作为保底。 且部分公司分红比例将进一步提 关注商用车板块，胜率有保底，赔率有潜在超预期 随着行业销量的回升，以旧换新政策的生效（12月终端销量环比有望+20%），市场对商用车版块儿的关注度有所 提升，并开始对明年的预期进行定价。 我们从胜率与赔率的角度进行分析，阐述我们当前对行业的观点。 胜率有保底： 一、当前行业重点头部公司股息率在5-7%，股息率可作为保底。 且部分公司分红比例将进一步提升，契合当前市场风格。 二、宏观角度看，大beta在25年触底会是"阶段性的市场共识"。 从近期货运流量数据看，11月同比持平，环比+6%。 挖机开工小时数11月同比+4%。 赔率有潜在超预期： 一、若经济超预期复苏，则有潜在的顺周期逻辑 二、以旧换新政策明年或有望延续，若能拓展到国四车辆的淘汰，则政策效果将明显强于 ...

910c今天是一张图带动的行情，但也在情理之中。 周三复盘： 就目前来看，11-12月910c已经出产品，主力是满足自身需求，被华为云自己消化了，用在贵安和安徽的项目。 这也是市场对910c无感的原因，因为没怎么大规模对外。 除了推荐上述标的之外，继续强调AEC的博创科技，昨天复盘的时候就说了，公司相对滞涨，是#最大预期差。 海外客户谷歌合作很紧密；国内除了几大云厂商外，和寒武纪也有合作AEC。 而且910c的确有了进展。 毕竟＃申菱、泰嘉、华丰 的位置都不高。 海光我们今天也在盘前推了，主要是DCU3回片+阿里认证进展不错。 半导体阀门国产替代在加速。 就目前来看，11-12月910c已经出产品，主力是满足自身需求，被华为云自己消化了，用在贵安和安徽的项目。 这也是市场对910c无感的原因，因为没怎么大规模对外。 继续关注新莱应材。 毕竟＃申菱、泰嘉、华丰 的位置都不高。 910c今天是一张图带动的行情，但也在情理之中。 对外的供货的节奏应该是Q1开始，Q2大规模起量。 再有就是今天聊了零部件专家，在最新的清单出来之后，美系厂商世伟洛克、Parker已经采取动作了。 周三复盘： 对外的供货的节奏应该是Q1 ...

海外要闻 【1】美国：银行业和商业团体就美联储的年度压力测试发起诉讼，表示寻求提高规则实施的透明度. 【2】植田和男：1）利率调整时机取决于经济、通胀；2）消费者支出有回升的迹象，预期2025年经济良性循环将 变强；3）重点关注春季薪资谈判情况。 【长江宏观于博团队】盘前播报12/26 海外要闻 【1】美国：银行业和商业团体就美联储的年度压力测试发起诉讼，表示寻求提高规则实施的透明度. 【2】植田和男：1）利率调整时机取决于经济、通胀；2）消费者支出有回升的迹象，预期2025年经济良性循环将 变强；3）重点关注春季薪资谈判情况。 【4】累计降息幅度对应预期： ->24年1月： 降息25BP-8.6%，不降息-91.4%； ->25年5月： 累计降息125BP-46.2%，100BP-41.9%。 【2】《》获通过：1）税率设置不变；2）不在2025年实施，而是2026年起实施。 【5】储能行业：12月26日，中关村储能产业技术联盟将在北京组织召开新型储能防止行业内卷式竞争闭门研讨 会。 【长江宏观于博团队】盘前播报12/26 【3】汇率：离岸、在岸美元兑人民币汇率分别贬值0.02%至7.307、贬值0%至7. ...

雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程已获核准，特高压规划再进一程 2024年12月，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程已获核准，建设水风光互补的清洁能源基地。 特高压建设持续性增强。 特高压线路储备项目充足。 此外，国网于2024年5月公布达拉特～蒙西、大同～乌兰察布～包头～巴彦淖尔等5条交流特高压线路以及吉林－ 四川、疆电（南疆）送电川渝等9条特高压直流线路。 特高压线路储备充足，进一步对"十四五"期间及"十五五"期间特高压建设持续性进行加强，相关核心公司有望受益 于特高压线路招标、建设持续推进，业绩实现稳步增长。 风险提示：行业需求不及预期。 特高压线路储备项目充足。 此外，国网于2024年5月公布达拉特～蒙西、大同～乌兰察布～包头～巴彦淖尔等5条交流特高压线路以及吉林－ 四川、疆电（南疆）送电川渝等9条特高压直流线路。 雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程已获核准，特高压规划再进一程 2024年12月，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程已获核准，建设水风光互补的清洁能源基地。 特高压建设持续性增强。 重点推荐【平高电气】【许继电气】【中国西电】【国电南瑞】等。 ...

我们预计杰瑞明年利润33亿元+，10x 纽威明年利润13亿元+，13x 逻辑上相似处：中东beta，装备出海早期阶段，客户壁垒高认证周期长 区别之处： 1、杰瑞确认周期长（1年），业绩兑现慢；纽威确认周期短（3个月），业绩兑现快 2、杰瑞产品更加大型化，客户切换供应商周期长；纽威产品更加偏标准品，历史业绩要求相对少。 我们预计杰瑞明年利润33亿元+，10x 纽威明年利润13亿元+，13x 生产规模效应纽威强。 逻辑上相似处：中东beta，装备出海早期阶段，客户壁垒高认证周期长 区别之处： 1、杰瑞确认周期长（1年），业绩兑现慢；纽威确认周期短（3个月），业绩兑现快 2、杰瑞产品更加大型化，客户切换供应商周期长；纽威产品更加偏标准品，历史业绩要求相对少。 3、杰瑞非标定制属性强，纽威更加标准化。 临近年底估值切换，关注低估值+高增速的2个油气设备相关优秀公司 临近年底估值切换，关注低估值+高增速的2个油气设备相关优秀公司 ...