Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [8] Core Insights - The global development of new energy is on the rise, making lithium resources strategically significant. In 2024, China's new energy vehicle production and sales are expected to reach 12.888 million and 12.866 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 34.4% and 35.5%, with new energy vehicles accounting for 40.9% of total vehicle sales [1] - Salt lake brine is the primary form of lithium resources globally, with over 60% of lithium resources existing in this form. China has approximately 6.8 million tons of proven lithium resources, with about 80% in salt lake brine, mainly distributed in Qinghai and Tibet [2][12] - Qinghai has established a carbonated lithium production capacity of approximately 179,000 tons, with a utilization rate of about 69% expected in 2024. The domestic salt lake carbonated lithium production is projected to reach 123,500 tons, accounting for 19% of the total domestic production [3][26] Summary by Sections Section 1: Salt Lake Brine as a Major Lithium Resource - Salt lake brine is the main form of lithium resources in China, with proven lithium resources amounting to about 6.8 million tons, primarily in Qinghai and Tibet [2][12] - The technology for lithium extraction from salt lakes has matured, and further optimization can enhance production capacity [2][26] Section 2: Development of Qinghai Salt Lake - The Qinghai salt lake has become the main supplier of carbonated lithium in China, with a projected production of 123,500 tons in 2024 [3][26] - The establishment of the China Salt Lake Group is expected to further promote the development of Qinghai salt lakes, with a target of achieving an industry output value of 340 billion yuan by 2025 and 700 billion yuan by 2030 [4][26] Section 3: Lithium Extraction Technologies - Various lithium extraction methods are being utilized, with adsorption and membrane methods becoming mainstream due to their efficiency and environmental benefits [5][21] - The coupling of adsorption and membrane methods is particularly effective for high magnesium-lithium ratio salt lakes, making it a preferred extraction route [5][24] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - In the context of limited overseas lithium resources, domestic high-quality lithium resources are becoming increasingly valuable. Key recommendations include companies like Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, and Blue Sky Technology, which are well-positioned in the lithium extraction sector [6][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a global IP retail store, leveraging "IP + retail" to unlock overseas growth potential [1] - The emotional consumption era is on the rise, with the IP retail industry experiencing upward momentum [1] - The company has a strong competitive edge through efficient supply chain management, robust IP operation capabilities, and scale advantages [2] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2013, has developed a comprehensive supply chain system and is now a leading player in the domestic household goods retail sector [15] - The company operates two brands: MINISO, focusing on household goods, and TOP TOY, targeting the trendy toy market [20] Industry Analysis - The IP retail sector is in its growth phase, with significant potential for expansion as China's per capita IP retail consumption is only about 1/4 of the global average [34] - The emotional consumption trend is gaining traction, with increasing consumer interest in IP-related products [40] Competitive Advantages - The company excels in supply chain efficiency, IP operation capabilities, and has a significant scale advantage with over 7,186 stores globally [2][60] - The company has established partnerships with over 150 top IPs, enhancing its product offerings and market presence [60] Market Expectations - The report anticipates better-than-market expectations for same-store sales in both domestic and overseas markets, driven by refined IP operations and targeted product categories [3][66] - The company is expected to continue expanding its store network, particularly in overseas markets, which will support same-store sales growth [3][67] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 172 billion, 213 billion, and 256 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.3%, 23.9%, and 20.2% [5] - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach 28.0 billion, 35.8 billion, and 43.7 billion for the same period, reflecting growth rates of 19%, 28%, and 22% [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating for public utilities is "Positive" [2] Core Views and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights key stock combinations in the public utilities sector: China General Nuclear Power Technology, Fuan Energy, and Dongfang Electronics, with a strong recommendation for China General Nuclear Power Technology due to government support for nuclear technology applications, potential synergies with nuclear power and new energy, and ongoing asset restructuring efforts [2][64][65] - In the green electricity operation sector, policies are encouraging high-energy-consuming industries to participate in green certificate trading, which is expected to enhance the value of green electricity. The report suggests focusing on projects benefiting from the Fujian offshore wind competition, including Zhongmin Energy and Fuan Co., as well as other low-valuation Hong Kong stocks like Longyuan Power and Datang New Energy [2][64][66] Industry Dynamics - The public utilities sector index rose by 1.36%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.78%, while the environmental protection sector index increased by 4.4%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.26% [8][9] - As of January 17, 2025, the public utilities sector (Shenwan) has a TTM PE of 16.52 times and an LF PB of 1.46 times, while the environmental protection sector has a TTM PE of 19.66 times and an LF PB of 1.34 times [20][60] - The report notes that the industrial power generation volume in December 2024 was 8,462 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with nuclear and solar power generation growth accelerating [59][60] Key Industry Segments - In the thermal power segment, demand is expected to rise during the peak winter season, and companies like Guodian Power and Huaneng International are recommended for attention [2][3] - The gas segment is anticipated to benefit from price adjustments in various regions, with recommendations for Fuan Energy and New Hope Energy [2][3] - The water and nuclear power segments are highlighted for their stable cash flow and long-term operational guarantees, with companies like China Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power receiving attention [3][4] - The environmental protection sector is focusing on growth and mergers, with key recommendations for Jingjin Equipment and Weiming Environmental Protection [4][5]

- The report discusses the GDPNOW model, which is used for macroeconomic forecasting. The model predicts a GDP growth rate of 4.2% for Q1 2025, reflecting a marginal downward trend in short-term macroeconomic forecasts[17][19] - The BARRA style factors are analyzed, showing a preference for growth over value stocks this week. Factors such as profitability, investment quality, and high beta stocks performed well, while size factors showed a shift towards small and mid-cap stocks[30][31][33] - The report highlights the performance of style factors, with profitability factors (e.g., earnings quality and earnings stability) and high beta stocks benefiting from the market's upward trend. Size factors, however, experienced a pullback, indicating a tilt towards smaller-cap stocks[30][31][33]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The influx of overseas users to Xiaohongshu has created a new opportunity for pet brands, particularly with the trending topic of "Cat Tax" among American users [1][2] - Pet brands are leveraging the "Cat Tax" phenomenon to enhance their marketing strategies and connect with overseas consumers through bilingual content [2][3] - Xiaohongshu's community-driven platform is becoming a crucial space for pet product awareness, purchase, and sharing, with a significant portion of pet owners being young, urban, and female [2][3] Summary by Sections Market Trends - A large number of overseas users have migrated to Xiaohongshu, especially after the TikTok ban in the U.S., leading to a surge in new user registrations [1] - The "Cat Tax" topic has gained immense popularity, with over 46,000 posts and 76 million views as of January 18 [2] Brand Strategies - Domestic pet brands are actively engaging with the "Cat Tax" trend to enhance their visibility and connect with international audiences [2] - Brands like Zhongchong Co., Guibao Pet, and Petty Co. are utilizing Xiaohongshu to showcase their products and brand culture [2][3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the current high emotional value consumption will drive pet owners to spend on pet brands [4] - Recommended companies include Ruipubio in the pet medical sector and Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. in the pet food sector, all of which are expanding their overseas business [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is focused on becoming a platform for innovative applications of magnetic and electronic materials, with its lead-free radiation protection materials entering a growth phase, and various new materials in the cultivation phase expected to drive profit and valuation upward [1]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1998 and listed on the ChiNext in 2023, specializes in powder research and has developed a range of products including magnetic adsorption materials, electronic ceramic materials, and radiation protection materials [10]. - The management team has a strong technical background, with a high ownership stake among executives and employees, indicating alignment of interests [11]. Market Analysis - The company operates in the nuclear technology application sector, which is expected to see increased demand for radiation protection materials due to government initiatives promoting the integration of nuclear technology into the economy [2]. - The company's lead-free radiation protection materials are positioned to replace traditional lead-based materials, aligning with industry trends towards safer alternatives [3]. Growth Expectations - The report forecasts the company's net profit to grow from 151 million yuan in 2024 to 254 million yuan in 2026, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 25% [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the successful development of new products and expansion into new customer segments and fields [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to increase from 890 million yuan in 2024 to 1.314 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding profit margins improving as new materials gain market traction [6]. - The report assigns a target price of 53.91 yuan based on a 30x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's competitive advantages in innovative materials [4]. Competitive Landscape - The company is a leader in the lead-free radiation protection materials sector, with a strong R&D capability that sets it apart from competitors who primarily offer lead-based solutions [35]. - The competitive environment includes both domestic and international players, but the company's focus on innovation and safety positions it favorably in the market [32][35].

Investment Rating - The industry rating for the food and beverage sector is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to focus on the performance during the Spring Festival and the New Year goods festival, with potential increases in dividends from liquor companies and new gifting concepts through WeChat stores. The Spring Festival of 2025 may serve as a verification period [1] - In the medium to long term, the focus should be on leading brands with strong brand momentum, early inventory clearance, and reasonable growth targets in the liquor sector. For mass-market products, attention should be paid to high prosperity and the recovery of the catering industry [1] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently focusing on the sales performance during the Spring Festival, with expectations that regional leaders like Sujiu and Huijiu will perform well. The short-term sales recommendation is for Yingjia Gongjiu, while the annual top stock recommendation is for Gujing Gongjiu [2][19] - The report emphasizes two main lines of investment: "momentum continuation" and "low base recovery." High-end liquor recommendations include Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai, while for mid-range and regional brands, Gujing Gongjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu are recommended [2][19] - The report predicts that the overall revenue performance of major liquor companies will slow down in Q4 2024, with a focus on maintaining healthy growth strategies [6][9] Mass-Market Products - The investment focus for 2025 in the mass-market sector is summarized into two main themes: the prosperity theme and the recovery theme. The report highlights the potential for upward trends in sub-sectors with expected improvements from new channels like hard discounts and WeChat stores [26] - The catering chain is seen as a key policy lever for stimulating consumption and supporting livelihoods, with expectations for broader policy stimulus to boost demand recovery and valuation recovery opportunities [26] - Recommended stocks in the mass-market sector include Three Squirrels, Qingdao Beer, Yili, and others, with a focus on leading companies [26][27] Market Performance - From January 13 to January 17, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.14%, with the liquor sector increasing by 2.36%. Notable performers included Huazhi Wine and Jiuziyuan, while Kweichow Moutai and Yanghe were among the lower performers [3][4][32] - The report indicates that the overall demand in the mass-market sector remains flat, but certain strong sub-sectors continue to show robust performance [21][23]

Investment Rating - The report rates the nuclear power equipment industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The demand for nuclear power is expected to benefit from AI-driven energy needs, with major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta investing in nuclear energy [4][12] - The policy environment is shifting towards a more supportive stance, with a forecasted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.4% for nuclear power installations from 2023 to 2035, increasing the share of nuclear power to about 10% by 2035 [4][44] - The domestic approval process for nuclear power projects is accelerating, with an expected CAGR of about 7% for new nuclear power equipment from 2023 to 2035 [4][40] Summary by Sections Global Nuclear Power Industry - AI is catalyzing a resurgence in nuclear power demand, with significant investments from leading tech companies [4][12] - The global nuclear power sector is entering a recovery phase, with a historical context of development phases leading to the current restart phase since 2023 [14][24] - Nuclear power generation accounts for approximately 9% of global energy production, with varying shares across countries [25][24] Domestic Nuclear Power Development - China's nuclear power technology has evolved through stages of following, imitating, and leading [29] - The domestic nuclear power policy has transitioned to a more proactive and orderly approach, emphasizing safety and the importance of nuclear energy in achieving carbon neutrality goals [34][31] - China is projected to become the world's largest nuclear power nation, with 102 operational and approved nuclear units [32] Nuclear Power Equipment Market - The nuclear island equipment constitutes over half of the total investment in nuclear power projects, with a significant market space projected during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans [56][68] - The report highlights the high gross margins of core components in the nuclear island, with margins ranging from 40% to 50% [62] - The expected market size for nuclear power equipment during the 14th Five-Year Plan is estimated at around 100 billion annually [68] Future Nuclear Technologies - The focus is on advanced nuclear technologies such as Generation IV reactors, Small Modular Reactors (SMR), and controlled nuclear fusion [5][74] - The global market for fusion equipment is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 26% from 2023 to 2033 [5][74] - The report recommends companies like Lianchuang Optoelectronics and Jingda Co., Ltd. as beneficiaries of the nuclear fusion advancements [6]

Market Overview - Major broad-based indices and CITIC first-level industries all rose this week, with the North Certificate 50 leading the gains at 9.63%[9] - The Shanghai Composite Index, after a rapid decline, confirmed a rebound in the 3087-3152 range, indicating a potential bottom formation[1][4] - The growth indices such as the CSI 1000 and ChiNext Index increased by 5.35% and 4.66% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.31%[9][44] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain current positions and consider increasing allocations during the formation of the "right foot" in the market[1][46] - Preference should be given to small-cap styles over industry selection, particularly in the "right foot" phase, with a focus on sectors like non-ferrous metals and real estate that have seen significant declines[1][46] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased to 1.18 trillion CNY, up from 1.13 trillion CNY the previous week[13] - Margin trading balances rose to 1.83 trillion CNY, with the proportion of financing purchases increasing to 9.37% from 8.39%[19] - Equity ETFs saw a net inflow of 114 billion CNY, with electronic ETFs leading the inflows at 2.5 billion CNY[19] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a GDP of 13,490.84 billion CNY for 2024, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with Q4 growth at 5.4%[39][41] - The People's Bank of China emphasized financial support for high-quality economic development, aiming to stabilize market expectations and manage risks[43] Risks - Potential risks include domestic economic recovery falling short of expectations and ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties[47]

❑ 本轮债市跨年行情或已结束 证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 01 月 18 日 本轮债市跨年行情或已结束 ——债市策略思考 核心观点 本轮债市跨年行情或已结束，下一阶段 10 年国债收益率或将进入回调期，2025 年债 市在经济复苏、财政发力、中美关系等因素扰动下或呈现波动加大的特征。人民币汇 率短期贬值空间或有限，贬值预期下仍不乏逆势升值的潜在路径。 年初央行地量开展 OMO 操作，选择用 7 天逆回购对冲月中到期的 MLF，叠加月 中税期、春节前取现需求增加等因素影响，资金面持续紧张。从 1 月 7 日开始， 资金利率已出现走高迹象，而过去一周 DR007 加权平均价持续在 1.9%以上运行， R007 一度突破 4%，流动性分层加剧。资金利率倒挂现券收益率，负 carry 压制债 市情绪，短端收益率率先上行，传导至长端收益率同步调整。但在市场普遍预期 2025 年货币宽松推动债牛行情的主线逻辑不变的情况下，长端收益率展现出较强 的韧性。当前临近春节，从历史经验和近期债市回调走势来看，我们认为本轮债 市的跨年行情大概率已结束。 ❑ 2025 年 ...