❑ 本轮债市跨年行情或已结束 证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 01 月 18 日 本轮债市跨年行情或已结束 ——债市策略思考 核心观点 本轮债市跨年行情或已结束，下一阶段 10 年国债收益率或将进入回调期，2025 年债 市在经济复苏、财政发力、中美关系等因素扰动下或呈现波动加大的特征。人民币汇 率短期贬值空间或有限，贬值预期下仍不乏逆势升值的潜在路径。 年初央行地量开展 OMO 操作，选择用 7 天逆回购对冲月中到期的 MLF，叠加月 中税期、春节前取现需求增加等因素影响，资金面持续紧张。从 1 月 7 日开始， 资金利率已出现走高迹象，而过去一周 DR007 加权平均价持续在 1.9%以上运行， R007 一度突破 4%，流动性分层加剧。资金利率倒挂现券收益率，负 carry 压制债 市情绪，短端收益率率先上行，传导至长端收益率同步调整。但在市场普遍预期 2025 年货币宽松推动债牛行情的主线逻辑不变的情况下，长端收益率展现出较强 的韧性。当前临近春节，从历史经验和近期债市回调走势来看，我们认为本轮债 市的跨年行情大概率已结束。 ❑ 2025 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dong'e Ejiao, with a target price of 77.24 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 23% based on a 26x PE for 2025 [5][70]. Core Insights - Dong'e Ejiao, a subsidiary of China Resources Group, has shown significant growth since the state-owned enterprise reform began in 2020, and is expected to continue its high growth and high dividend trajectory [1][5]. - The company leads the blood-nourishing product market with a 38% market share in the first three quarters of 2024, benefiting from increased health awareness post-pandemic [2][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Dong'e Ejiao is a leading producer of Ejiao and related products, established in 1952 and listed in 1996. It is recognized as a standard setter in the Ejiao industry and a model for high-quality development in traditional Chinese medicine [15][16]. Market Position and Growth - The blood-nourishing product market has a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.3% from 2020 to 2023, with Dong'e Ejiao being the market leader [2][31]. - The company has successfully expanded its product line to include ready-to-eat and male health products, enhancing its market presence [2][5]. Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 58.71 billion CNY, 68.01 billion CNY, and 78.34 billion CNY, representing year-on-year growth rates of 24.50%, 15.85%, and 15.18% respectively [5][67]. - The net profit for the same period is expected to be 15.38 billion CNY, 19.13 billion CNY, and 23.17 billion CNY, with growth rates of 33.65%, 24.37%, and 21.14% respectively [5][67]. Catalysts for Growth - Anticipated strong performance in Q1 2025 due to marketing reforms and cost reduction efforts, with revenue and net profit growth expected to exceed industry averages [4][64]. - Continued product revenue growth driven by marketing reforms and an increase in gross margins [4][64]. Risk Factors - The report does not include risk factors, focusing instead on the positive outlook and growth potential of Dong'e Ejiao [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Changsha Bank is "Buy" [6] Core Views - Changsha Bank's net profit for 2024 is expected to grow by 6.9% year-on-year, with a slight recovery in growth rate compared to the previous three quarters [2][3] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to increase by 4.6% year-on-year, showing improvement from the previous quarters [2][3] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at the end of 2024 is 1.15%, a decrease of 1 basis point from the previous quarter, indicating stable improvement in asset quality [5] - The provision coverage ratio remains stable at 314% [5] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, Changsha Bank's net profit is estimated to reach CNY 7,983 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.97% [7] - Revenue is expected to be CNY 25,936 million, with a growth rate of 4.57% [7] Asset Growth - Total assets of Changsha Bank are projected to grow by 12.4% year-on-year by the end of 2024, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.1% [4] - The loan balance shows a slight increase of 0.3% compared to the previous quarter, while total assets have grown more significantly [4] Non-Performing Loans - The NPL ratio is expected to remain stable at 1.15% by the end of 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 314% [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - For 2025 and 2026, net profit is forecasted to grow by 4.94% and 5.44% respectively, with corresponding book values per share (BPS) of CNY 18.14 and CNY 19.83 [6] - The target price is set at CNY 10.75 per share, indicating a potential upside of 26% based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.65x for 2024 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.17 to 1.4 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 80% [1] - The growth in 2024 is primarily driven by the continued growth in the shipbuilding industry, with significant increases in sales and orders for the company's diesel engine segment [2] - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing an upward cycle due to factors such as ship replacement cycles, environmental policies, and tight capacity, which are expected to drive ship prices to new highs [3][4] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of approximately 54.8 billion, 65 billion, and 75.1 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 19%, and 16% [5] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is approximately 1.29 billion, 2.16 billion, and 3.13 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 66%, 67%, and 45% [5] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be approximately 39, 23, and 16 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratios are expected to be around 1.3, 1.2, and 1.2 [5]

Industry Rating - The media industry is rated as "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The media industry's performance in 24Q4 is expected to remain stable, with a focus on AI industry trends in 2025, driven by companies like ByteDance, Tencent, Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Xiaohongshu [1] - The gaming sector is expected to maintain stable growth in Q4 2024, with new product cycles emerging in 2025 [1] - The film industry is expected to recover in 2025 after a decline in 2024 due to insufficient content supply [2] - The publishing sector benefits from the extension of income tax exemption until 2027, which is expected to positively impact publishing companies [3] - The advertising market is expected to remain stable, with AI-driven marketing companies like Yidian Tianxia showing potential for double-digit growth [4] Gaming Sector - Century Huatong's "Endless Winter" has maintained a high ranking since its launch in May, while Perfect World's "Zhu Xian World" saw over 140,000 players queuing on its launch day [1] - New games like "Time Big Bang" by 37 Interactive Entertainment and "Ask Sword Longevity" by G-bits are performing well in the free rankings [1] - Several major IP games, including "Douluo Continent: Soul Hunting World" and "Dragon Nest World," are expected to launch in the first half of 2025 [1] - Companies like ST Huatong, Giant Network, 37 Interactive Entertainment, and Glacier Network are expected to see significant profit growth in Q4 2024 due to base effects [1] Film Sector - The national box office revenue in 2024 was 42.5 billion yuan, a 23% decrease year-on-year and 34% lower than 2019, falling short of market expectations [2] - The box office revenue is expected to recover to over 50 billion yuan in 2025, a 17% increase year-on-year [2] - Leading film companies like Light Chaser Animation, Wanda Film, and Bona Film Group are expected to benefit from the Spring Festival season and a recovery in 2025 [2] - Mango Excellent Media's performance in IPTV remains under pressure, despite the success of shows like "Goodbye Lover" and "Alley Family" [2] - Companies like Shanghai Film and Huace Film & TV are expected to perform well in Q4 due to low base effects and AI+IP catalysts [2] Publishing Sector - The extension of income tax exemption for publishing companies until 2027 is expected to benefit the sector, with actual tax rates for state-owned publishing companies ranging from 20% to 30% in 2024 [3] - The new "National Nine Articles" policy emphasizes cash dividends, which could lead to increased dividends from education publishing companies, although overall performance may remain under pressure in Q4 and the full year [3] Advertising Sector - The advertising market is expected to remain stable, with Focus Media expected to see a profit growth of 6% to 10% in Q4 2024 [4] - AI-driven marketing companies like Yidian Tianxia are expected to achieve double-digit growth [4] Investment Recommendations - The media industry in 2025 is expected to focus on AI-driven trends, with companies like ByteDance, Tencent, Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Xiaohongshu leading the way [5] - Key investment opportunities include gaming companies like Giant Network, ST Huatong, and 37 Interactive Entertainment, as well as AI-related companies like Kunlun Tech and Perfect World [5] - Hong Kong-listed companies like Tencent Holdings, Xiaomi Group, and Meituan are also recommended for investment [5]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating [3][5] Core Views - Acquisition of Hangzhou New Century Mixed Gas: The company plans to acquire 51% of Hangzhou New Century Mixed Gas Co Ltd for RMB 134 million, aiming to extend its standard gas business layout and enhance comprehensive competitiveness [1] - Hangzhou New Century: With decades of experience in the standard gas field, the company achieved revenue of RMB 56.34 million and net profit of RMB 6.21 million in 2023, and revenue of RMB 27.32 million and net profit of RMB 836,000 in the first half of 2024 [1] - Performance Commitment: Hangzhou New Century is expected to achieve a total net profit of no less than RMB 67.88 million from July 2024 to June 2027, with an annual average of RMB 22.63 million, accounting for 2% of Hangyang's 2023 net profit [1] Industry Demand and Market Share - Industrial gas market demand: The total demand for industrial gas is nearly RMB 200 billion, with the third-party outsourcing market growing rapidly, expected to increase from 41% in 2021 to 45% by 2025 [2] - Market share growth: Under the trend of domestic substitution, the company's market share in the third-party gas supply market was 9% in 2021, with an incremental share of 45%, and is expected to reach 30-40% in the future [2] - Product structure upgrade: The proportion of gas business revenue continues to increase, with higher growth and profitability compared to equipment business, and the retail gas business, especially electronic special gases, is expected to further enhance profitability [2] Financial Forecasts - Net profit forecast: Expected net profits for 2024-2026 are RMB 980 million, RMB 1.31 billion, and RMB 1.59 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -19%, 34%, and 21%, respectively [3] - PE ratios: Corresponding PE ratios are 20x, 15x, and 12x for 2024-2026 [3] - Revenue growth: Expected revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are 5%, 19%, and 15%, respectively [5] Company Growth Path - Demand growth + market share increase + profitability improvement: The company's long-term profit potential is expected to be several times higher, driven by industry demand growth, increased market share, and improved profitability [2] - Gas business expansion: The company's gas business revenue is expected to account for over 75% by 2025, with a compound growth rate of 23% from 2022 to 2025 [10] Financial Summary - Revenue and profit: 2023 revenue was RMB 13.31 billion, with a net profit of RMB 1.22 billion, and expected revenues for 2024-2026 are RMB 13.92 billion, RMB 16.55 billion, and RMB 19.01 billion, respectively [5] - ROE: Expected ROE for 2024-2026 are 10%, 12%, and 14%, respectively [5]

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 13.26 CNY per share, implying a 30% upside from the current price [5] Core Views - SPD Bank's net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 23.3% YoY in 2024, continuing the high growth trend from the previous quarters [1][2] - Revenue declined by 1.5% YoY in 2024, but improved by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first three quarters, driven by improved liability costs and stabilized interest margins [2] - Non-performing loan (NPL) ratio improved to 1.36% at the end of 2024, down by 2 basis points from the end of Q3, indicating better asset quality [1][4] - Provision coverage ratio increased to 187% at the end of 2024, up by 7 percentage points from the end of Q3, reflecting strengthened risk resilience [1][4] Financial Performance - Total assets grew by 5% YoY at the end of 2024, with a 0.5% increase from the end of Q3, showing steady expansion [3] - Net interest income is expected to grow by 4.02% in 2025, while net fee income is projected to remain flat [11] - ROAE (Return on Average Equity) is forecasted to increase from 6.34% in 2024 to 6.56% in 2026, indicating improved profitability [11] Valuation and Forecast - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders to grow by 5.69% in 2025 and 6.32% in 2026 [5] - Book value per share (BPS) is projected to increase from 22.36 CNY in 2024 to 24.28 CNY in 2026 [5] - Current price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 0.46x for 2024, with a target P/B of 0.59x, suggesting significant undervaluation [5] Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - NPL ratio is expected to further decline to 1.30% by 2026, with a provision coverage ratio maintained at around 186% [11] - Capital adequacy ratio is projected to remain strong, with a core Tier 1 capital ratio of 11.49% in 2024 and 11.17% in 2026 [11]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 通信设备 亿联网络(300628) 报告日期：2025 年 01 月 16 日 ——亿联网络 2024 年业绩预告点评 投资要点 ❑ 24Q4 经营收入、利润均超预期 公司发布 2024 年业绩预告。2024 年，公司预计实现收入 55.2 至 57.3 亿元，同比 增长 27%至 32%；归母净利润 26.1 至 27.1 亿元，同比增长 30%至 35%；扣非后 归母净利润 24.0 至 24.9 亿元，同比增长 34%至 39%。 以业绩预告中值计算，24Q4 公司预计实现收入 15.2 亿元，环比+5%，同比增长 35%；归母净利润 6.0 亿元，同比增长 51%。分季度来看，24Q1-Q4 公司收入增 速分别为 31%、30%、22%、35%；归母净利润增速分别为 34%、31%、20%、 51%。我们认为，24Q4 美元升值幅度较大，公司主要收入来自于欧美地区，或 形成较多的汇兑收益。 ❑ 云办公终端有望进入成长快车道 公司云办公终端业务趋势向好，各季度环比增速持续提升。从前三季度来看，云 办公终端回归至增速最高的状态，其次为会议产品和桌面通信终端。我们认为， 目前 ...

Industry Rating - The industry rating for the light manufacturing sector is **Positive (Maintained)** [2] Core Views - The report highlights two main investment themes for the light manufacturing sector in 2024: **replacement demand** and **self-indulgence consumption** [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of **home furnishing subsidies** and their impact on sales, with 2024 home renovation subsidies driving sales of nearly 60 million products, totaling approximately 120 billion RMB [2] - The report also discusses the **paper industry**, noting a bottoming out of pulp prices in Q4 2024 and a potential rebound in Q1 2025, which could support paper prices [2] - In the **essential consumer goods** sector, the report points out that despite overall weak consumption, companies with strong product logic and high-margin products are expected to perform well [2] - The **packaging sector** is expected to benefit from 3C subsidies and supply chain integration, with companies like Yuto Packaging Technology showing positive growth in Q4 2024 [2] - The **export sector** is expected to see strong performance in Q4 2024 due to favorable exchange rates, with significant contributions from categories like functional sofas, thermos cups, outdoor products, and pet supplies [2][3] - The **pet industry** is highlighted for its robust domestic growth, with Q4 2024 online sales reaching 8.3 billion RMB, a 10% YoY increase, and strong performance from leading companies like Guabi Pet and Zhongchong [5] - The **toy industry** is noted for its strong domestic demand and potential for overseas expansion, with companies like Pop Mart and Blue Zoo expected to benefit from the growing trend of adult toy consumption [5] Sector-Specific Summaries Home Furnishing - **Soft furniture** companies like Kuka Home, Sleemon, and DeRUCCI are expected to achieve positive revenue growth in Q4 2024 due to shorter delivery cycles [2] - **Custom furniture** companies such as Oppein, Sophia, and ZBOM are expected to face revenue pressure in Q4 2024 but may see a turnaround in Q1 2025 [2] Paper Industry - **Pulp prices** bottomed out in Q4 2024, with a potential rebound in Q1 2025 due to supply-side maintenance shutdowns [2] - Companies like **Xianhe Co**, **Huawang Technology**, and **Sun Paper** are recommended for their strong profitability and management advantages [2] Essential Consumer Goods - Despite weak overall consumption, companies like **Baiya** and **Dencare Oral** are expected to achieve strong growth through high-margin products and online sales channels [2] Packaging - **Yuto Packaging Technology** is expected to maintain positive growth in Q4 2024, driven by 3C subsidies [2] - **Plastic packaging** companies like **Yongxin** are expected to see improved profitability due to lower crude oil prices [2] - **Metal packaging** companies like **ORG Packaging** are expected to stabilize profits due to improved industry structure and stable raw material prices [2] Export Sector - **Functional sofas**, **thermos cups**, **outdoor products**, and **pet supplies** are expected to show strong performance in Q4 2024, driven by favorable exchange rates and holiday demand [2][3] Pet Industry - Domestic sales in the pet industry grew by 10% YoY in Q4 2024, with leading companies like **Guabi Pet** and **Zhongchong** showing strong growth [5] Toy Industry - The domestic toy industry is experiencing strong demand, with companies like **Pop Mart** and **Blue Zoo** expected to benefit from overseas expansion opportunities [5] Key Company Performance - **Oppein**: Expected Q4 2024 revenue of 52.85 billion RMB, down 15% YoY, but with a potential turnaround in Q1 2025 [6] - **Kuka Home**: Expected Q4 2024 revenue of 53.81 billion RMB, up 6% YoY [6] - **Yuto Packaging Technology**: Expected Q4 2024 revenue of 48.14 billion RMB, up 9% YoY [6] - **Sun Paper**: Expected Q4 2024 revenue of 100 billion RMB, down 3% YoY, but with a potential rebound in Q1 2025 [6] - **Pop Mart**: Expected to benefit from strong domestic demand and overseas expansion opportunities [5]

Industry Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector [4] Core Views - The real estate sector is expected to see a narrowing decline in key metrics such as sales area, sales value, new construction starts, and completion area in 2025 [1] - Policy implementation, particularly around land and existing housing acquisitions, is expected to drive valuation recovery in the sector [1] - The risk of developer defaults in 2025 is considered manageable, with potential short-term impacts on sector valuation [2] - Seasonal sales peaks and policy support could lead to better-than-expected sales performance, supporting valuation recovery [3] Sector Opportunities - The first half of 2025 is expected to offer investment opportunities driven by policy support and seasonal sales peaks, particularly around the "Little Spring" period [5] - Policy impact is expected to outweigh fundamental factors in driving sector valuation in the first half of 2025 [6] - Companies related to urban village development and acquisitions are recommended for attention [6] - Consumer-focused real estate companies and high-quality developers are also highlighted as potential investment targets [6][8] Key Companies to Watch - Urban village-related companies: Chengjian Development, ChengTou Holding [8] - Consumer + real estate companies: Seazen Holdings, Longfor Group, China Resources Land [8] - High-quality developers: China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Development, China Overseas Land & Investment, Binjiang Group [8]