Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 11.28 HKD [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 13.05 billion RMB in 2024, a decrease of 6.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of -0.05 billion RMB, down from 0.58 billion RMB in the same period last year. The adjusted comparable net profit was 0.54 billion RMB, a decline of 30.5% year-on-year. The negative net profit in 2024 was primarily due to non-cash foreign exchange losses, one-time marketing and promotional expenses, and restructuring costs related to channel optimization [1][3]. - Looking ahead to 2025, the company is expected to maintain good growth momentum in the nutritional supplement demand, with the probiotic business likely to continue its growth trend. The infant formula business is anticipated to improve year-on-year due to ongoing fertility policy implementations [1][4]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - In 2024, the three main business segments—Adult Nutrition (ANC), Infant Nutrition (BNC), and Pet Nutrition (PNC)—achieved revenues of 6.70 billion, 4.39 billion, and 1.97 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +8.8%, -25.8%, and +4.4%. The ANC segment showed strong growth driven by high demand for beauty, multivitamins, and liver detox products, while the BNC segment faced challenges due to a lengthy transition to new national standards [2][3]. Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin increased by 1.1 percentage points to 60.6% in 2024, attributed to reduced inventory provisions and product mix optimization. The adjusted comparable EBITDA margin decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 15.0% [3][4]. - The forecast for 2025-2026 has been adjusted downward due to the pressure on the infant formula business, with expected EPS of 0.81 and 0.97 RMB, representing a decrease of 41% and 39% from previous estimates [4][6]. Valuation - The target price of 11.28 HKD is based on a 13x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting an increase from the previous target of 10.22 HKD. This adjustment is in line with the recent upward trend in PE valuations for related companies due to new fertility policies being implemented [4][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 66.40 HKD [8][9]. Core Insights - The company reported strong financial performance for the fiscal year 2024, with revenue, net profit, and adjusted net profit reaching 40.5 billion, 10.7 billion, and 11.7 billion RMB respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 91%, 277%, and 185% [1]. - The company is positioned for rapid growth, benefiting from the expansion of the ADC industry, with an expected revenue CAGR of 27% from 2025 to 2027 [1]. - The company has a significant increase in project numbers and backlog orders, with a total of 194 comprehensive projects and a backlog of 9.91 billion USD, reflecting a 71% increase from the end of 2023 [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 30.6% in 2024, an increase of 4.2 percentage points from 2023, driven by capacity ramp-up and cost reduction [4]. - The company’s capital expenditures (CAPEX) for 2024 were 15.4 billion RMB, primarily for capacity construction in Singapore and Wuxi, with an expected CAPEX of 14 billion RMB in 2025 [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 8% and 18% to 16.2 billion and 21.7 billion RMB respectively, with a projected net profit of 25.8 billion RMB for 2027 [5][13]. - The company is expected to achieve a 36% CAGR from 2024 to 2026, with a target price adjustment to 66.40 HKD based on a PEG ratio of 1.28x [5][15]. Operational Metrics - As of the end of 2024, the company served 499 clients, a 45% increase year-over-year, and has introduced 69 new pipelines, reflecting a strong demand in the ADC sector [3]. - The company’s revenue contributions from pre-IND and post-IND services are projected to be approximately 16.76 billion and 23.77 billion RMB in 2024, with significant growth rates of 80.8% and 98.6% year-over-year [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [13]. Core Views - The company has achieved revenue growth of 8.5% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 14.759 billion, with tire and chassis parts revenue increasing by 10.4% and automotive maintenance revenue by 9.9% [5]. - The company has a strong cash reserve of over 7.5 billion, supporting further expansion and strategic investments [5]. - The number of registered users reached nearly 140 million, a 20.4% increase year-on-year, with transaction users growing by 24.8% [6]. - The company expanded its workshop stores to 6,874, netting an increase of 965 stores, achieving nearly 50% coverage in counties with over 20,000 passenger vehicles [7]. - Revenue is expected to grow by 11% in 2025, with projected revenues of 16.386 billion, 17.987 billion, and 19.623 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price is 17.94 HKD, with a total market capitalization of 14.7 billion HKD and a PE ratio of 28.1 [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross profit of 3.7 billion, with a gross margin of 25.4%, reflecting a 0.7 percentage point increase year-on-year [5]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 was 600 million, a 29.7% increase year-on-year [5]. User Engagement - The average monthly active users reached 12 million, a 17.2% increase year-on-year, with a customer satisfaction rate exceeding 95% [6]. Market Expansion - The company is focusing on expanding its workshop stores and enhancing its brand recognition, which is expected to drive growth in a recovering consumer environment [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 7.82 HKD [6][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue increase of 6.5% year-on-year to 18.1 billion RMB and a net profit increase of 5.3% year-on-year to 5.5 billion RMB for the fiscal year 2024. The fourth quarter saw a revenue increase of 10.8% and a net profit increase of 20% [1][2]. - The proposed dividend for the fiscal year 2024 is 0.385 RMB per share, representing a 20% increase year-on-year, with a dividend payout ratio of 42% and a corresponding dividend yield of approximately 6.75% [1][2]. - The company benefits from a favorable environment for high-dividend stocks in a low-interest-rate context, enhancing its investment appeal [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's toll road revenue and segment profit are expected to grow by 2.3% and 13.1% year-on-year, respectively, contributing approximately 72% to the net profit [2]. - The growth in truck and passenger vehicle traffic is driven by the economic prosperity in Zhejiang province, with GDP growth of 5.5% and total import and export growth of 7.4% [2]. Brokerage Performance - The brokerage segment experienced a significant improvement in profitability in Q4 2024, with a 32% year-on-year increase in segment profit, driven by a more active market following favorable policy changes [3]. - The overall contribution of the brokerage business to net profit for 2024 is approximately 14% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted upwards by 2.6% and 0.6% to 5.71 billion RMB and 5.88 billion RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 introduced at 6.20 billion RMB [4]. - The target price has been raised to 7.82 HKD, reflecting an increase in the valuation of the Hong Kong financial sector and a decrease in the risk-free interest rate [4][11]. Financial Metrics - The company is projected to achieve an EPS of 0.95 RMB in 2025, with a PE ratio of 5.99 and a PB ratio of 0.70 [5][20]. - The dividend yield is expected to remain stable at 6.75% for the next few years [20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 56.05 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 430 million for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21%. However, it incurred a net loss of RMB 510 million and an adjusted net loss of RMB 480 million. The sales performance of the product, Sipulizumab, in the nasal indication has shown strong initial results, with sales of approximately RMB 43 million in the first three and a half months post-approval [1][2]. - The company is expected to continue its progress in commercialization and pipeline development, particularly in the nasal indication, which is currently the only approved treatment in China. The potential for significant sales growth is anticipated due to the product's efficacy and safety profile [1][3]. - The company has a robust pipeline with several clinical trials underway, including CM313 for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and other indications. Data from the I/II phase trials for SLE is expected to be disclosed in the second half of 2025 [3][4]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company’s cash reserves are strong, with cash and cash equivalents amounting to RMB 2.16 billion by the end of 2024. This financial position supports ongoing commercialization efforts and pipeline development [4]. - Revenue projections have been adjusted, with expected revenues of RMB 717 million in 2025 and RMB 1.096 billion in 2026, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [7][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been revised to -RMB 2.69 for 2025 and -RMB 2.33 for 2026, with a projected positive EPS of RMB 0.36 in 2027 [5][21]. Valuation - The company’s fair value based on discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis is estimated at approximately RMB 14.3 billion, leading to a target price of HKD 56.05, reflecting a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.3% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.5% [5][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 68.73 HKD [7][24]. Core Insights - The company's 4Q revenue increased by 8.7% year-on-year to 35.38 billion RMB, aligning with consensus expectations of 35.7 billion RMB. The gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 54%, and adjusted net profit rose by 13.3% year-on-year to 4.7 billion RMB, also meeting expectations [1][19]. - For 2025, total revenue is expected to grow by 11% year-on-year, with advertising revenue and GMV growth rates slowing to 14% and 13%, respectively. Adjusted net profit is projected to reach 20.6 billion RMB [1][20]. - The company is anticipated to accelerate revenue growth starting in 2Q 2025, driven by AI commercialization opportunities in areas such as 2C subscriptions, 2B e-commerce advertising, and API calls, which could contribute an additional 400 to 800 million RMB in revenue [1][20]. Revenue and Business Segments - E-commerce and other revenue growth slowed to 14.1% year-on-year in 4Q, below expectations by 3.5%. The e-commerce GMV grew by 14.4% year-on-year, with the share of general merchandise e-commerce increasing to 30% [2]. - The number of active e-commerce merchants increased by over 25% year-on-year, with significant growth in GMV from small and medium-sized businesses driven by new policies [2]. - The AI capabilities of the company are expected to enhance advertising efficiency, with a 13.3% year-on-year increase in advertising revenue in 4Q, although this was 2% below expectations [3]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been adjusted upward by 0.6%, while the adjusted net profit forecast has been reduced by 12.6% to 20.6 billion RMB due to increased investments in AI [20][22]. - The report introduces a new valuation for 2027, projecting revenue and adjusted net profit of 163.8 billion RMB and 28.3 billion RMB, respectively [20]. - The target price of 68.73 HKD is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, with the advertising business valued at 53.36 HKD per share, the e-commerce business at 8.75 HKD, and the live streaming business at 4.87 HKD [24][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see continuous improvement in online music revenue and profit margins due to the growth in paid users and ARPPU [2] - The forecasted net profits for the years 2024 to 2026 are 6.644 billion, 7.645 billion, and 9.133 billion CNY respectively, with a target price set at 66.89 HKD [2][5] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates total revenue of 28.401 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [12] - The operating profit for 2024 is projected to be 7.349 billion CNY, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 53.8% [12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to be 6.644 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 35.0% [12] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve to 42.3% in 2024, up from 35.3% in 2023 [12] - The net margin is projected to reach 23.4% in 2024, compared to 17.7% in 2023 [12] - The company’s P/E ratio for 2025 is estimated at 26.1 times [12] Revenue Breakdown - In Q4 2024, the online music service revenue is expected to be 58.3 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [9] - The social entertainment service revenue for Q4 2024 is projected at 16.3 billion CNY, a decrease of 13.0% year-on-year [9] - The total revenue for 2025 is anticipated to reach 310 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][21][22] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 42.76 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.71 billion RMB, up 4.6% year-on-year, exceeding previous expectations [1][9] - The core operating profit reached 6.23 billion RMB, reflecting an 18.7% year-on-year growth, indicating strong operational performance [1][9] - The company is focusing on brand incubation under the "Red Pomegranate Plan," with 11 active entrepreneurial projects, including new brands like "Yanjing Barbecue" and "Xiao Hai Hot Pot" [3][18][20] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the overall table turnover rate was 4.1 times per day, an increase of 0.3 times year-on-year, while the average customer spending was 97.5 RMB, a slight decrease of 1.6 RMB [2][11] - The gross profit margin improved to 62.1%, a 3.0 percentage point increase, marking a new high since the company's listing [3][15] - The core operating profit margin reached 14.6%, up 1.9 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 11.0%, up 0.1 percentage points, both representing the best performance since the company went public [3][15] Store Expansion and Market Presence - As of the end of 2024, the total number of stores was 1,368, with 1,355 self-operated and 13 franchised, reflecting a net increase of 25 stores compared to mid-2024 [2][12] - Same-store sales growth was 3.6%, with different growth rates across city tiers, indicating resilience in the core hot pot business [2][12] Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 5.38 billion RMB and 6.12 billion RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 6.93 billion RMB, indicating growth rates of 14.4%, 13.7%, and 13.3% [4][21] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16x, 14x, and 12x, respectively, suggesting a favorable valuation outlook [4][21]

AI 驱动广告高速增长，Q1 春节档游戏强劲 ——腾讯控股（0700.HK）24Q4 季报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预期游戏增速持续提升，预计 24~26 年 IFRS 归母净利润为 1941/2261/2501 亿 元（24~26 年原值为 1951/2245/2498 亿元，因根据财报上调广告等收入，我们调整 盈利预测），24~26 年 non-IFRS 归母净利润为 2227/2576/2856 亿元。采用 SOTP 估值，给予对应目标价 559.92 港币（517.04 人民币 HKD/RMB=0.92），维持"买 入"评级。 风险提示 腾讯控股 00700.HK 公司研究 | 季报点评 政策风险、游戏收入不达预期风险、广告行业竞争风险 公司主要财务信息 | 项雯倩 | 021-63325888*6128 | | --- | --- | | | xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 | | 李雨琪 | 021-63325888-3023 | | | liyuqi@o ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has deepened its IP strategy and accelerated globalization, achieving a record high gross margin [1] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 16.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, with adjusted net profit of 2.72 billion yuan, up 15.4% [5] - The company expects to maintain strong performance in the second half of 2025, driven by its IP strategy and expansion of overseas direct stores [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 20.95 billion yuan, 25.51 billion yuan, and 30.97 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.3%, 21.7%, and 21.4% [5] - Net profit projections for the same years are 3.05 billion yuan, 3.72 billion yuan, and 4.57 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.5%, 22.1%, and 22.7% [5] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 44.9% in 2024 to 50.6% in 2027 [5] Market Performance - The company has optimized its store layout and enhanced IP penetration in China, with revenue from the mainland reaching 9.33 billion yuan, a 10.9% increase [5] - The overseas revenue reached 6.68 billion yuan, a 41.9% increase, with a significant increase in the number of direct stores [5] - The company is focusing on enhancing its online sales and expanding its product categories to drive growth [5]