证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 03 26 年 月 日 申洲国际（02313.HK） 销量持续快速增长，盈利表现符合预期 公司 2024 年收入 286.6 亿元/净利润 62.4 亿元，同比分别+15%/+37%。1）2024 年： 公司收入/净利润分别为 286.6/62.4 亿元，同比分别+15%/+37%。2）2024H2：公司收入/ 净利润分别为 156.8 /33.1 亿元，同比分别+17%/+36%。3）量价拆分：我们估计 2024 年 公司销量增长超过 20%/人民币单价下降中个位数，我们判断单价下降主要系原材料等成本 下降所致。4）公司 2024 年度宣派股息合计为每股 2.53 港元，股利支付率约为 56%，以 2025 年 3 月 25 日收盘价计算的股息率约为 4.6%。 盈利质量：2024 年产能利用率修复带动盈利能力提升，2025 年毛利率估计以稳定为主。 从盈利质量层面来看：2024 年毛利率同比+3.8pct 为 28.1%（其中 H1 为 29.0%，H2 为 27.4%），我们判断毛利率同比提升主要系产能利用率同比恢复、H2 环比波动主要 ...

中国金茂（0817.HK）2024 年度业绩点评 归母净利润"止跌回稳"，未来增长可期 2025 年 03 月 26 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 3 月 25 日，中国金茂（0817.HK）发布 2024 年度业绩，截 至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，公司实现营收 590.53 亿元，同比减少 18%；归母净利 润为 10.65 亿元，较 2023 年度-68.97 亿元的归母净利润回正。 ➢ 城市及物业开发主业保持第一梯队，其他业务实行"盘活存量"。2024 年度， 公司城市及物业开发业务实现销售规模排名行业第 12 位，较 2023 年提升 1 位； 商务租赁及零售商业运营收入为 16.97 亿元，较 2023 年下降 6%，主要由于 2024 年长沙览秀城成为华夏金茂商业 REIT 的底层资产，其收入不再纳入中国金 茂财务报表导致商务租赁及零售商业运营收入减少；酒店经营收入为 16.99 亿 元，较 2023 年下降 18%，主要系 2023 年下半年出售北京威斯汀酒店以及国内 旅游度假市场下行影响所致；金茂服务营收为 29.66 亿元，较 2023 年增长 10%， 主要系基础物业管理在管面积增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Sino Biopharmaceutical [2][11][17] Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of CNY 28.9 billion in FY24, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.2%, with a gross profit margin of 81.5% [3][14] - Innovative products are expected to drive double-digit revenue growth in FY25, particularly in oncology and surgery/analgesia segments [4][15] - The company plans to launch seven innovative products in FY25, including key candidates such as TQB3616 and Meloxicam [5][16] Financial Performance - FY24 revenue was CNY 28.9 billion, with a net profit of CNY 3.5 billion, marking a 50.1% increase year-on-year [3][14] - R&D expenses increased by 15.6% to CNY 5.1 billion, representing 17.6% of total revenue [3][14] - The company expects revenue to reach CNY 32.4 billion in FY25, a growth of 12.3% year-on-year [6][16] Product Segments - Revenue from innovative drugs reached CNY 12.1 billion, up 22% year-on-year, while generics contributed CNY 16.8 billion, growing 3% [4][15] - The oncology segment generated CNY 10.7 billion, driven by strong sales of key products [18] - The surgery/analgesia segment saw a revenue increase of 19% to CNY 4.5 billion, supported by the sales of Flurbiprofen Cataplasms [18] Future Outlook - The company anticipates significant contributions from new product launches and clinical data readouts in 2025 [5][16] - Management expects the liver diseases segment to introduce one innovative drug and five biosimilars/generics between 2025 and 2027 [18] - The report projects a target price of HKD 5.52 for the stock, based on a P/E ratio of 25.2x for 2025 [6][17]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 136.71 per share based on a 35x PE for 2025 [3] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic character building block toy market, leveraging the popularity of its products, particularly the Ultraman series, leading to explosive revenue growth in 2023 and 2024 [1][10] - The company has a strong competitive advantage through differentiated product offerings, effective content marketing strategies, and a robust supply chain [2][43] - The growth strategy focuses on expanding its IP matrix and penetrating lower-tier markets, with significant revenue contributions from key IPs [2][62] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The company has transitioned to focus on character building blocks, achieving revenues of HKD 8.77 billion and HKD 22.4 billion for 2023 and 2024, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 169% and 156% [1][10] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 52.6% in 2024, with a net profit of HKD 5.85 billion, reflecting a net profit margin of 26.1% [1][13] Competitive Advantages - The company offers high cost-performance products with a complete pricing range from HKD 9.9 to HKD 399, excelling particularly in the sub-HKD 50 segment [2][48] - The product development cycle is rapid, with 30-90 new SKUs launched quarterly, catering to various age groups [2][46] Growth Potential - The company has a diverse IP matrix, with the top four IPs contributing over 90% of revenue in 2024, including Ultraman, Transformers, and self-owned IPs [2][24] - The company has expanded its distribution network to approximately 150,000 offline points, focusing on lower-tier markets [2][65] Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit is projected to grow to HKD 9.08 billion, HKD 12.69 billion, and HKD 16.67 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 55%, 40%, and 31% [3][6] - The company’s P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 29.83 in 2023 to 16.25 in 2025, indicating a favorable valuation trend [6][3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beverage (02460) with a target price of 18.75 HKD, indicating an expected increase of over 15% relative to the market index in the next six months [1][6][12]. Core Insights - China Resources Beverage achieved a revenue of 13.521 billion CNY in 2024, a slight increase of 0.05% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 23.12% to 1.637 billion CNY. The company declared a total cash dividend of 1.158 billion CNY, with a payout ratio of 70.77% [3][4][7]. - The company’s packaging water business recorded a revenue of 12.124 billion CNY, a decline of 2.6% year-on-year, while the second-line beverage business grew by 30.8% to 1.4 billion CNY, contributing 10.3% to total revenue [4][5]. - The gross margin improved by 2.6 percentage points to 47.3%, driven by increased self-owned production capacity and reduced outsourcing costs [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 13.521 billion CNY and a net profit of 1.637 billion CNY, with respective growth rates of 0.05% and 23.12% [3][7]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.453 billion CNY, 15.261 billion CNY, and 16.075 billion CNY, with expected growth rates of 7%, 6%, and 5% respectively [6][7]. Business Segments - The packaging water segment accounted for 89.7% of total revenue, with a notable decline in small-sized products due to competitive pricing pressures, while larger-sized products saw an increase in revenue by 8.6% [4][5]. - The second-line beverage segment is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with new product launches aimed at expanding consumer reach [4][6]. Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its operational efficiency, leading to a significant reduction in production costs and an increase in net profit margin to 12.1% [5][6]. - The self-owned production capacity is projected to increase to over 60%, further enhancing profitability [6].

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Minth Group, indicating potential for over 15% return over the next 12 months [1][7][14] Core Views - Minth Group's 2H24 earnings showed mixed results with revenue falling short of expectations while gross profit margin (GPM) exceeded projections. Improved operational efficiency is evident through reduced net debt, lower capital expenditures (capex), and significantly higher free cash flow, which could support future margin enhancements and increased dividend payouts [1][7] - The company is well-positioned for revenue growth in FY25-27E, driven by rapid growth in battery housing revenue and the introduction of new products that are expected to generate substantial income. Battery housing margins are anticipated to improve further in FY25E as capex decreases [1][7] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 23,147 million in FY24A to RMB 26,186 million in FY25E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.1% [2][11] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 2,319 million in FY24A to RMB 2,719 million in FY25E, representing a 17.2% year-on-year growth [2][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 2.02 in FY24A to RMB 2.37 in FY25E [2][11] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 9.9x in FY24A to 8.5x in FY25E, indicating a more attractive valuation [2][11] Share Performance - The current market capitalization of Minth Group is approximately HK$ 24,982.9 million, with a target price set at HK$ 26.00, suggesting a potential upside of 20.9% from the current price of HK$ 21.50 [3][4] - The stock has shown strong performance, with a 1-month increase of 2.6% and a 6-month increase of 48.9% [5] Operational Efficiency - Free cash flow surged from RMB 131 million in FY23 to RMB 1,363 million in FY24, highlighting significant operational improvements [7] - The net gearing ratio is projected to decrease from 15.4% in FY24A to 6.4% in FY25E, indicating a stronger balance sheet [2][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company is focusing on high-end products, with a steady improvement in profit margins due to cost optimization and a favorable product mix [2][3] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 38.635 billion RMB, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.76% [3] - The report anticipates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will grow from 1.46 RMB in 2024 to 2.20 RMB by 2027, indicating a positive growth trajectory [3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 42.64%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to improved raw material costs [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to be 4.739 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8.03% [3] - The company's operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to increase by 67% to 6.846 billion RMB, providing a solid foundation for future dividend increases [2][3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, with projections of 42.523 billion RMB in 2025 and 44.721 billion RMB in 2026, representing growth rates of 4.82% and 5.17% respectively [3] - The report indicates that the company's EBITDA is expected to grow to 9.537 billion RMB by 2025, with a corresponding EBITDA margin improvement [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company is making strides in high-end product sales, with a notable 35% increase in sales of its flagship product "Zhai Fu" in the white liquor segment [2] - The report emphasizes the company's strategic focus on optimizing production capacity and enhancing operational efficiency, which is expected to contribute positively to profitability [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 11.20, indicating a potential upside of 48.9% from the current closing price of HKD 7.52 [2][3][10]. Core Insights - The company's performance is expected to recover in the second half of 2024, continuing into 2025-2027, driven by the launch of six innovative drugs and ongoing opportunities for business development (BD) abroad [3][7]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 11.20, reflecting optimism about the recovery in performance and valuation correction due to BD catalysts [3][7]. - The company anticipates a revenue and adjusted net profit growth of over 15% in 2025, primarily from new products and increased shareholder returns [7][12]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at RMB 7,637 million, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB 1,221 million, reflecting an 11% increase from previous forecasts [6][12]. - The gross profit margin is projected to improve to 80.7% in 2025, up from 79.3% in the previous estimate [6]. - The company plans to launch three new products by 2025, contributing to a peak sales potential of RMB 60-80 billion from the six new products by 2027 [7][12]. Market Position and Valuation - The company has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 18,697.13 million, with a 52-week high of HKD 8.42 and a low of HKD 5.12 [5]. - The report highlights a strong cash return rate of over 6% based on current stock prices, supported by dividends and share buybacks totaling RMB 10.9 billion [7]. - The company's innovative drug revenue has increased its contribution to total revenue, enhancing overall profitability [7][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 25.00 [6][8][17] Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 is expected to increase by 21.3% to RMB 12.26 billion, with a net profit growth of 33.4%, exceeding expectations [1][6] - The oncology drug segment is projected to contribute 61.2% of the total product sales revenue in 2024, driven by strong performance from the core product Amelot, which is expected to see sales growth of 19.9% [2] - The company has established a partnership with Merck for the development and commercialization of a GLP-1 receptor agonist, which is expected to enhance its capabilities in the metabolic field [4] - The company is currently developing 40 innovative drugs, with several in late-stage clinical trials, indicating a promising pipeline for future growth [5] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 10.10 billion in 2023 to RMB 12.26 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.3% [7][14] - Shareholder net profit is expected to rise from RMB 3.28 billion in 2023 to RMB 4.37 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 33.4% [7][14] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve by 1.2 percentage points, while sales and administrative expenses as a percentage of product sales revenue are expected to decrease [1][7] Product and Market Developments - The oncology drug business is expected to grow from approximately RMB 6.55 billion in 2024 to RMB 10.97 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 18.8% [2] - The anti-infection drug revenue is projected to increase by 15.0% to RMB 1.46 billion in 2024, primarily driven by the strong sales of the hepatitis drug Hengmu [3] - The company has received multiple recommendations for its products in clinical guidelines, which is expected to support future sales growth [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 23.038 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, and a net profit of 211 million yuan, down 67.2% year-on-year [2][4]. - The overall demand in the regional market is under pressure, with the company's cement segment sales declining by 10.9% year-on-year [2][8]. - The increase in management expenses, which reached 2.63 billion yuan, approximately 300 million yuan more than in 2023, significantly impacted performance [2][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's cement products, concrete, and aggregate sales were 61.714 million tons, 13.209 million cubic meters, and 69.352 million tons, representing decreases of 10.9%, increases of 39.6%, and increases of 52.1% respectively compared to 2023 [8]. - The average selling prices for cement products, concrete, and aggregates were 243.7 yuan/ton, 319.5 yuan/cubic meter, and 36.4 yuan/ton, showing decreases of 10.6%, 12.9%, and an increase of 2.8% respectively year-on-year [8]. - The gross profit margins for cement products, concrete, and aggregates were 15.1%, 12.2%, and 35.1% respectively, compared to 11.7%, 11.9%, and 54.3% in 2023 [8]. Market Outlook - The overall cement production in China decreased by 9.5% year-on-year to approximately 1.83 billion tons in 2024 [8]. - The company is expected to see performance improvements in 2025 and 2026, with projected net profits of 1.1 billion yuan and 1.3 billion yuan, corresponding to price-earnings ratios of 11 and 9 times respectively [6][8]. - The South China market is anticipated to improve, with the Greater Bay Area construction providing momentum [8]. Business Expansion - The aggregate business is in a growth phase, with the company having an annual production capacity of approximately 108.6 million tons through its subsidiaries and joint ventures [8]. - The expected capital expenditure for 2025 is 2.52 billion yuan, which is a reduction compared to previous years [8].