汽车 2025 年 03 月 16 日 理想汽车-W(2015.HK) 纯电节奏明确，智驾迭代再加速 推荐（维持） 股价：113.2 元（港币） 主要数据 | 行业 | 汽车 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | ir.lixiang.com | | 大股东/持股 | | | 实际控制人 | 李想 | | 总股本(百万股) | 2122.02 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | | | 总市值（亿元） | 2217.24 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | | | 每股净资产(元) | 33.40 | | 资产负债率(%) | 56.07 | 行情走势图 证券分析师 | 王德安 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060511010006 | | | BQV509 | | | WANGDEAN002@pingan.com.cn | | 王跟海 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060523080001 | | | BVG944 | | | WANGGENHAI964@pingan.com.cn | 事项： 公司发布 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the relevant market benchmark [3][11]. Core Insights - Leapmotor achieved a revenue of RMB 32.16 billion in 2024, a 92% year-over-year increase, aligning with the forecast of at least RMB 30.5 billion [3][11]. - The company reported a narrowed net loss of RMB 2.82 billion for the year, with Q4 2024 showing a revenue of RMB 13.46 billion, up 155% year-over-year and a net profit of RMB 80 million, marking a positive turnaround [3][11]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) for the year was 8.4%, up 7.9 percentage points year-over-year, with Q4 GPM reaching 13.3%, driven by product mix optimization and cost management [3][11]. - Leapmotor's strategic cooperation with Stellantis Financial Services aims to enhance financial services for distributors and consumers, while the company plans to expand its sales service network to 550 outlets by 2025 [3][11]. Financial Data and Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 55.3 billion, RMB 86.5 billion, and RMB 100 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at RMB 400 million, RMB 1.7 billion, and RMB 4.4 billion for the same years [3][11]. - The report highlights a significant increase in vehicle deliveries, with a total of 294,000 new cars delivered in 2024, a 104% increase year-over-year [3][11]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle in Q4 was approximately RMB 111,000, reflecting a year-over-year increase of RMB 16,000 [3][11]. Market Position and Strategy - Leapmotor is positioned as a leading smart electric vehicle company in China, focusing on innovation and self-developed technology to create value for users [3][11]. - The company is expanding its product lineup, with the recent pre-sale of the B10 model, which features advanced intelligent driving capabilities at a competitive price point [3][11]. - The report emphasizes the potential growth opportunities in the RMB 100,000-200,000 economic smart car market, supported by the company's light asset overseas model in collaboration with Stellantis [3][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant growth in retail revenue for Miu Miu, which increased by 93% in 2024, with EBIT margin reaching a 10-year high. The overall revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 14.9% to €5.432 billion, with a net profit increase of 25% to €839 million [5][6] - The company is expected to continue its positive trajectory with revenue forecasts of €6.059 billion in 2025, €6.646 billion in 2026, and €7.207 billion in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.5%, 9.7%, and 8.4% respectively [5][6] - The report also notes the appointment of a new CEO for Miu Miu, which may influence future brand strategies and performance [6] Financial Performance and Forecast - Key financial data and projections include: - Revenue (million euros): 2023: 4,726; 2024: 5,432; 2025E: 6,059; 2026E: 6,646; 2027E: 7,207 - Net profit (million euros): 2023: 671; 2024: 839; 2025E: 972; 2026E: 1,088; 2027E: 1,191 - EPS (euros): 2023: 0.26; 2024: 0.33; 2025E: 0.38; 2026E: 0.43; 2027E: 0.47 - Gross margin: 2024: 79.84%; 2025E: 79.80%; 2026E: 79.90%; 2027E: 80.00% [5][6][10] Market Performance - The report indicates that the company's retail performance is strong, with significant contributions from both direct retail and distribution channels. The direct retail network is being optimized, with a focus on expanding Miu Miu's presence in untapped markets [6][10] - The geographical breakdown of retail revenue growth for 2024 shows: - Asia Pacific: +13% - Europe: +18% - Americas: +9% - Japan: +46% - Middle East: +26% [6] Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a high EBIT margin, with projections for net profit growth of 15.9% in 2025, 11.9% in 2026, and 9.5% in 2027. The report assigns a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23-25X for 2025, translating to a fair value range of HKD 76.01-82.62 [6][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 8.182 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 392 million, which is a significant increase of 43% [3][5] - The manufacturing segment is operating at full capacity, with a revenue increase of 11.1% to USD 5.62 billion in 2024, driven by a recovery in the footwear market and improved production efficiency [3][5] - The retail segment experienced a decline in revenue by 8% to RMB 18.45 billion, primarily due to reduced foot traffic and store adjustments, although online sales grew by 16% [3][5] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: USD 7.890 billion - 2024: USD 8.182 billion - 2025E: USD 8.654 billion - 2026E: USD 9.082 billion - 2027E: USD 9.464 billion - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be: - 2023: USD 275 million - 2024: USD 392 million - 2025E: USD 489 million - 2026E: USD 546 million - 2027E: USD 592 million [3][12] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 10 in 2023 to 5 in 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [3][12] Operational Efficiency - The manufacturing business achieved a gross margin increase to 19.9%, up by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, due to enhanced capacity utilization and operational efficiency [3][5] - Inventory turnover days for the manufacturing segment decreased to 51 days, indicating improved inventory management [3][5] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.9 per share, resulting in a total annual dividend of approximately HKD 1.3 per share, with a payout ratio of 69% and a dividend yield of around 10% [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (零跑汽车) [1] Core Insights - Leap Motor's total sales for 2024 reached 293,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 103.8%, with total revenue of 32.16 billion yuan, up 92.0% year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 8.4%, an increase of 7.9 percentage points year-on-year, and the net loss was reduced to 2.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.4 billion yuan year-on-year [4][5] - The B10 model, which is Leap Motor's first intelligent vehicle, has a pre-sale price range of 109,800 to 139,800 yuan, and is expected to significantly boost sales with its competitive features [4] - The company is expected to further improve its gross margin to over 10% in 2025, driven by scale effects, product structure optimization, and cost reductions [4] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For 2024, the company forecasts total revenue of 32.16 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 92%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 57.01 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 77% [5] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 98 million yuan, with a significant turnaround from previous losses, and is expected to grow to 3.12 billion yuan by 2027 [5][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.07 yuan in 2025, turning positive for the first time [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Limited (01299) [2] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year increase in OPAT of 12% per share, exceeding targets, and announced a new share buyback plan of $1.6 billion [5][6] - The company's NBV growth rate is in line with expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 18% to $4.712 billion [5] - The report highlights a robust performance in investment returns, with total investment assets increasing by 8.2% year-on-year to $255.3 billion [8] Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a year-on-year increase in OPAT of 7% to $6.605 billion, with a significant rise in net profit attributable to shareholders of 81.6% to $6.836 billion [5][10] - The expected net profit for 2025-2027 is revised upwards to $7.774 billion, $8.434 billion, and $8.949 billion respectively [8] - The report indicates a total investment return of 4.8% for equity assets and 4.3% for fixed income assets, remaining stable year-on-year [8] Market Segment Analysis - In the Hong Kong market, NBV increased by 23% to $1.764 billion, with strong growth in agent and partner distribution channels [11] - In mainland China, NBV grew by 20% to $1.217 billion, supported by the establishment of four new branches [11] - Southeast Asia markets showed positive growth, with Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia reporting year-on-year increases in NBV of 15%, 15%, and 10% respectively [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group Limited is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a 2024 New Business Value (NBV) of USD 4.71 billion, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, which aligns with expectations [4] - The report anticipates a steady growth in NBV for 2025-2026, with projections of +10.8% and +10.2% respectively, and a new forecast for 2027 at +10.4% [4] - The company is recognized as a leader in the Asia-Pacific life insurance sector, with strong performance in its main business regions [4] Financial Performance Summary - The total premium and fee income for 2023 was HKD 32.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 13.3% [6] - The intrinsic value increased to HKD 54.5 billion in 2024, reflecting a 2.1% year-on-year growth [6] - The NBV for 2024 is projected to be HKD 3.7 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 16.8% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is estimated at HKD 46.9 billion, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5.4% [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 12.4 times, while the price-to-embedded value (P/EV) ratio is expected to be 1.1 times [6] Regional Performance - The NBV growth in various regions for 2024 is as follows: Mainland China +20%, Hong Kong +23%, Thailand +15%, Singapore +15%, Malaysia +10%, and other regions +18% [5] - The Mainland China market achieved an NBV of USD 1.22 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 20% [5] - Hong Kong's NBV reached USD 1.76 billion, benefiting from a rebound in individual insurance channels and strong demand for savings products [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group Limited is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a 2024 New Business Value (NBV) of USD 4.71 billion, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, which aligns with expectations [4] - The 2024 annualized new premium reached USD 8.61 billion, up 14% year-on-year, with a margin increase of 1.9 percentage points to 54.5% [4] - The after-tax operating profit increased to USD 6.605 billion, reflecting a 7% year-on-year growth [4] - The report projects NBV growth of 10.8% and 10.2% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with an additional forecast of 10.4% for 2027 [4] - The company's strong liability performance and stable asset yield led to an upward revision of the 2025-2026 net profit forecast to HKD 52.7 billion and HKD 56.7 billion, respectively [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The total premium and fee income for 2023 was HKD 32.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 13.3% [6] - The embedded value for 2024 is projected at HKD 55.7 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [6] - The new business value for 2024 is expected to be HKD 37 billion, reflecting a 16.8% year-on-year growth [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is forecasted at HKD 46.9 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.4% [6] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2025 is estimated at 12.4 times, while the price-to-embedded value (P/EV) is projected at 1.1 times [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $8.2 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $390 million, up 43% year-on-year. The manufacturing segment generated $5.6 billion in revenue, an 11% increase year-on-year, while the retail segment saw a revenue decline of 10% to $2.6 billion [1][5] - Manufacturing business orders are robust, with a significant increase in shipments and a narrowing decline in average selling price (ASP). The ASP for 2024 was $20.3, down 5% year-on-year, while shipments reached 260 million pairs, a 17% increase [2][5] - The retail business is showing signs of improvement, with a smaller revenue decline in Q4 and effective cost management strategies leading to stable profit margins. Online retail revenue grew by 16%, with Douyin sales doubling year-on-year [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of $8.2 billion and a net profit of $390 million. The manufacturing segment contributed $5.6 billion, while the retail segment accounted for $2.6 billion [1][5] - In Q4 alone, the company reported a revenue of $2.1 billion, an 11% increase year-on-year, but net profit dropped by 52% to $70 million due to increased operational costs and tax disputes [1][3] Manufacturing Business - The manufacturing segment's revenue for 2024 was $5.6 billion, with a shipment volume of 260 million pairs, reflecting a 17% increase. The ASP remained stable at $20.3 [2][5] - The manufacturing gross margin was 19.9%, with a capacity utilization rate of 93%. However, Q4 gross margin was pressured due to increased overtime and outsourcing costs, alongside a tax dispute in Indonesia [3][5] Retail Business - The retail segment's revenue for 2024 was $2.6 billion, down 10% year-on-year, but the decline in Q4 was only 2%. The company managed to improve its gross margin to 34.2% through effective discount management [4][5] - The number of offline stores decreased to 3,448, with same-store sales down 17.1%. However, online sales showed resilience, particularly on platforms like Douyin [4][5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $8.4 billion, $9.0 billion, and $9.6 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of $454 million, $498 million, and $529 million [5][12] - The projected P/E ratios for the next three years are 6.0, 5.5, and 5.2, with a dividend payout ratio of 69% for 2024, translating to a dividend yield of 10% [5][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of USD 8.182 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 392 million, which is a significant increase of 43% [3][5] - The manufacturing business is operating at full capacity, with an increase in operational efficiency leading to a gross margin rise [3] - The retail segment is experiencing a decline in physical store sales but shows strong growth in online sales, contributing to an overall improvement in gross margin [3] - The company is the largest sports shoe manufacturer globally and has a strong presence in the sports retail sector, indicating a robust position in the industry [3] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: USD 7.890 billion - 2024: USD 8.182 billion - 2025E: USD 8.654 billion - 2026E: USD 9.082 billion - 2027E: USD 9.464 billion - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from USD 275 million in 2023 to USD 489 million in 2025E, and further to USD 592 million by 2027E [3][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 17.05 cents in 2023 to 30.49 cents in 2025E [3][12] Operational Efficiency - The manufacturing business achieved a capacity utilization rate of 93% in 2024, up from 79% in FY23, contributing to a gross margin increase of 0.7 percentage points to 19.9% [3] - The retail business saw a decline in physical store sales but a 16% increase in online sales, leading to a gross margin improvement of 0.5 percentage points to 34.2% [3] Dividend Policy - The company proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.9 per share, resulting in a total annual dividend of approximately HKD 1.3 per share, with a payout ratio of 69% and a dividend yield of about 10% [3]