市公司 型 ( 2025 年 12 月 23 日 (06110) 三季度基本符合预期,经营指标健康,需求仍待回暖 报告原因: 有业绩公布需要点评 ar (维持) | 市场数据: | 2025 年 12 月 22 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 3.12 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8939.68 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币) | 4.13/2.60 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 193.48 | | 流通 H 股 (百万股) | 6,201.22 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.9068 | -年内股价与基准指数对比走势: 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 投资要点: 财务数据及盈利预测 | 货币单位:人民币 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(亿元) | 289.3 | 270.1 | 252.7 | 266.2 | 282.7 | | 同 ...

上 市 公 司 商业贸易 2025 年 12 月 23 日 滔搏 (06110) ——三季度基本符合预期，经营指标健康，需求仍待回暖 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -6% 14% 34% 54% 12/23 01/23 02/23 03/23 04/23 05/23 06/23 07/23 08/23 09/23 10/23 11/23 HSCEI 滔搏 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 12 月 22 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 3.12 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8939.68 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 4.13/2.60 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 193.48 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 6,201. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3][6] Core Views - The company is experiencing rapid growth in the shipment of power batteries, with a market share of 4.7% in the global power battery market as of January to October 2025, showing a continuous year-on-year increase. In October, the company surpassed LG Energy in monthly installations, marking its entry into the global top three [4][7]. - The company is diversifying its customer base and expanding globally, with significant partnerships in the passenger vehicle sector with companies like XPeng, Leap Motor, GAC, and Changan, as well as in the commercial vehicle sector with clients such as Geely, Chery, and others [4][7]. - The company is also seeing rapid growth in energy storage battery shipments, with expectations to reach approximately 45 GWh in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 75%. The company is enhancing its product offerings and expanding its international presence [5][8]. Summary by Sections Power Battery Segment - The company is projected to achieve nearly 70 GWh in power battery shipments in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of over 50%. The company is focusing on global diversification and has secured orders from leading overseas passenger vehicle clients [4][6][7]. Energy Storage Segment - The company is one of the earliest to mass-produce 314Ah cells and is continuously optimizing its product lineup. It has established deep collaborations with major clients like Sungrow and CRRC Zhuzhou, while also expanding its overseas footprint in regions like Saudi Arabia and Europe [5][8]. Financial Projections - The profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted downwards due to fluctuations in shipment structures, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised due to positive impacts from storage and commercial vehicle demand. Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.215 billion, 2.675 billion, and 3.904 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 106%, 120%, and 46% [6][11].

极氪私有化完成，三大电车品牌 26 年齐发力 证 券 研 究 报 告 吉利汽车（00175.HK）重大事项点评 强推（维持） 事项： ❖ 12 月 22 日，吉利汽车发布公告，宣布正式完成对极氪的私有化及合并事项的 交易，极氪成为吉利汽车的全资附属公司，并于纽交所退市。此前 12 月 9 日 已公告交易对价选择结果，70.8%的极氪股东选择股份，吉利汽车共为其配发 7.7723 亿股股份；29.2%的股东选择现金，吉利汽车共支付 7.01 亿美元现金。 评论： [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 241,099 | 349,740 | 448,010 | 496,572 | | 同比增速(%) | 33.5% | 45.1% | 28.1% | 10.8% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 16,632 | 18,645 | 26,296 | 31,749 | | 同比增速(%) | 213.3% | 12.1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of HKD 19.82 [1][5][11] Core Insights - The company has successfully licensed its SIM0613 (LRRC15 ADC) to France's Ipsen for an upfront payment of USD 45 million and a total deal value of USD 1.06 billion, marking the third licensing deal in 2025 and indicating the company's innovative drug pipeline is entering a monetization phase [1][2] - The SIM0613 ADC platform shows significant potential, with advantages demonstrated in preclinical models and no direct competitors in clinical stages, positioning it as a potential first-in-class (FIC) product globally [2][3] - The company is accelerating its global pipeline expansion, with multiple products and technology platforms poised for overseas exploration, including promising candidates in autoimmune and oncology fields [3][4] Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at RMB 1.18 billion, RMB 1.40 billion, and RMB 1.52 billion respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% from 2025 to 2027 [5][11] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are RMB 0.45, RMB 0.54, and RMB 0.59, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio projected to be 33.19x for 2026 [5][11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company experienced a high single-digit decline in total sales for FY2026Q3, with direct store sales area decreasing by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 13.4% year-on-year [1] - The retail environment remains volatile, with pressures from store closures and competition affecting offline sales [1] - E-commerce sales are expected to continue growing due to the company's strong operational capabilities and enhanced digital marketing strategies [2] - The company is focusing on expanding its brand portfolio in the outdoor and running segments, collaborating with various brands to meet diverse consumer needs [2] - The overall revenue is projected to decline by 7% and net profit by approximately 4% for FY2026, influenced by the current consumer environment and inventory management [2] Financial Summary - Revenue for FY2026 is estimated at 25,062 million, a decrease of 7.2% year-on-year [4] - Net profit for FY2026 is projected at 1,229 million, down 4.4% year-on-year [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for FY2026 is expected to be 0.20 [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for FY2026 is estimated at 14.3 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 13.6% for FY2026 [12]

证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | 酒店餐饮 2023 年现制饮品行业规模 5100+亿元，近几年持续保持双位数增速。细分赛道来 看，增速维度，现磨咖啡＞现制茶饮＞其他，2018-2023 年现磨咖啡/现制茶饮行 业增速约 36%/19%。规模维度，现制茶饮＞现磨咖啡＞其他，2023 年现制茶饮/ 现磨咖啡市场规模约 2500+/1700+亿元。横向比较，我国人均现制饮品年消费量 仍有 8 倍及以上空间。2023 年，我国人均现制饮品年消费量 22 杯，仍远低于 2023 年美国的 323 杯、欧盟及英国的 306 杯以及日本的 172 杯，因此对标发达市 场仍有 8 倍以上空间。中价带成为最具确定性的成长区间。高客单价承压、低价 带同质化严重，中价带凭借"高质价比+更包容的产品结构"成为占比最高的价 格带，预计 2028 年零售额占比为 48%。2024-2028 年，中价现制饮品 GMV 的 CAGR 预计可达 21%。 ❑ 300+新品、12+8+15 供应链体系与门店数高增速共塑确定性飞轮 首先，产品聚焦与稳定心智构筑品牌基本盘。早期"五谷奶茶"立"温热饱腹 健康"心智，2019 年后聚焦鲜果茶等四大线， ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of 5.7 out of 10 for the IPO of the company, suggesting a recommendation for subscription based on the potential growth in AI computing demand and the company's strong technological barriers and order reserves [16]. Core Insights - The company focuses on general-purpose graphics processing unit (GPGPU) chips and intelligent computing solutions, which are critical for AI model training and inference, positioning itself as a key player in the AI infrastructure market [1]. - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 3.37 billion in 2024 and RMB 589 million in the first half of 2025, supported by a strong order backlog totaling RMB 20.63 billion [2][5]. - The Chinese intelligent computing chip market is expected to reach USD 50.4 billion by 2025, indicating substantial growth potential for the company, which aims to capture approximately 0.2% of the market share [3][9]. Company Overview - The company has developed a complete solution comprising hardware systems and software platforms, including PCIe cards, OAM modules, and servers, which enhance energy efficiency in data centers [2]. - The company is the first in China to adopt 2.5D chip packaging technology for dual AI computing bare chips, showcasing its advanced technological capabilities [1][4]. - The company holds a robust patent portfolio with 613 patents granted and 972 pending, indicating strong technical reserves [4]. Industry Status and Prospects - The market is characterized by a concentration of leading players, with the top two companies holding 94.4% of the market share, providing a unique competitive space for the company [3]. - The domestic competition in the intelligent computing chip sector is expected to grow, with local companies projected to increase their market share from 20% in 2024 to 60% by 2029, benefiting the company as a local core enterprise [9]. Advantages and Opportunities - The company has a strong technical barrier and iterative capability, with a high proportion of R&D personnel (83%) and significant investment in R&D, exceeding 70% of total operating expenses from 2022 to 2024 [4]. - The company has a solid order reserve, with 24 unfulfilled binding orders valued at RMB 822 million and additional sales agreements worth RMB 1.241 billion, indicating strong revenue certainty for the future [5]. Commercialization Progress - The company has begun generating revenue from its intelligent computing solutions in 2023, with a steady increase in customer quality, moving from small trial customers to leading enterprises in the ICT and data center sectors [2][5]. - The company operates under a fabless model, focusing on core design and solution integration, allowing for flexible supply chain responses to customer needs [5].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious subscription for the company [2] Core Insights - The company develops General-Purpose Graphics Processing Unit (GPGPU) chips and AI computing solutions, providing essential computational power for artificial intelligence (AI) [2] - The company's GPGPU-based solutions have strong performance and efficiency in training and inference of large language models (LLMs), giving it a competitive edge in the domestic market [2] - The Chinese smart computing chip market is expected to reach USD 50.4 billion by 2025, with the company aiming for a market share of approximately 0.2% [2] - The global smart computing chip market is projected to grow from USD 6.6 billion in 2020 to USD 119 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 106.0% [2] - The company’s revenue for 2022 to 2024 is projected to be RMB 0.5 million, RMB 62.03 million, and RMB 336.8 million, with net losses of RMB -1,474.31 million, RMB -1,743.95 million, and RMB -1,538.1 million respectively [2] - The GPGPU market has significant long-term growth potential and is currently in a rapid development phase [2] - The company's Hong Kong IPO valuation is approximately 117 times price-to-sales (PS) for 2024, leading to a recommendation for cautious subscription due to unclear profitability timeline [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating to Hesai Technology (02525.HK) with a target price of HKD 235.93, indicating a potential upside of 35% from the current price of HKD 175.10 [3][9]. Core Insights - Hesai Technology is a leading global developer and manufacturer of LiDAR technology, with a comprehensive product matrix covering ADAS, autonomous driving, and robotics markets. The company has achieved significant milestones, including being the first to deliver over 10,000 units of LiDAR in a month and achieving Non-GAAP profitability in 2024 [6][14]. - The report highlights the expected rapid growth in the LiDAR market, driven by the increasing adoption of L2+/L3/L4 regulations, with projections indicating that the global automotive LiDAR market could reach USD 9 billion by 2030 and USD 14.8 billion by 2035 [7][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hesai Technology was founded in 2014 and has established itself as a leader in the LiDAR industry, focusing on high-performance products. The company has developed eight major product series, including AT, ET, FT, Pandar, OT, XT, QT, and JT, catering to various applications in the automotive and robotics sectors [6][21]. - The company has a strong financial outlook, with projected revenues of CNY 2.08 billion in 2024, growing to CNY 5.82 billion by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.4% [2][9]. LiDAR Industry - The LiDAR market is expected to expand rapidly, with the domestic installation of LiDAR units projected to reach 2.5 million by 2025, achieving a penetration rate of 9.0%. The report notes that the price of LiDAR units is expected to decrease to around CNY 1,450, which will further drive market growth [6][7]. - The report identifies key technological advancements in LiDAR, including the transition to mixed solid-state and full solid-state technologies, which are anticipated to enhance performance and reduce costs [7][8]. Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes Hesai's competitive advantages, including strong R&D capabilities, a leading manufacturing system, and a diverse customer base that includes major players in the ADAS and robotics sectors. The company has secured significant contracts with top automotive manufacturers and is recognized as a preferred supplier for leading Robotaxi companies [6][8][9]. - The expected growth in the robotics LiDAR market is highlighted, with projections indicating that the market for robotic LiDAR solutions could grow from USD 600 million in 2024 to USD 5.1 billion by 2029, representing a CAGR of 56% [8][9]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts that Hesai's net profit will turn positive in 2025, reaching CNY 358 million, and is expected to grow to CNY 887 million by 2027. Non-GAAP net profit is projected to increase significantly, from CNY 478 million in 2025 to CNY 995 million in 2027 [2][9]. - The valuation is based on a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 8x for 2026, leading to a target market capitalization of CNY 33.4 billion [9].