25Q3 营收和盈利同比增长明显，存储和高可靠领域需求向好 ——上海复旦（1385.HK）2025 年三季报业绩点评 要点 事件：公司前三季度实现营收 30.24 亿人民币，同比增长 12.7%；25Q3 实现 营收 11.86 亿人民币，同比增长 33.28%；Q3 营收增长主要系非挥发性存储 芯片、智能电表芯片和 FPGA 及其他芯片业务的销售带动，Q3 收入分别同比 增长 44%/42%/34%，而安全与识别芯片 Q3 营收同比增长 16%。利润端， 前三季度产品综合毛利率 58.47%，同比增长 3.42pct；25Q3 产品综合毛利 率 61.06%，同比增长 8.91pct，系营收增长叠加产品结构优化。前三季度归 母净利润 3.30 亿人民币，同比下降 22.69%，系受到政府补助专项验收和增 值税加计抵减额下降、存储跌价准备增加、无形资产计提减值等的影响。其中 25Q3 归母净利润 1.37 亿人民币，同比增长 72.69%，对应归母净利率 12%。 非挥发性存储器 Q3 营收回暖，公司积极开拓民品应用领域和合作：1）安全 与识别芯片业务 25Q3 实现收入 2.39 亿元，同比增长 16%。金 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant improvement in ADT-related businesses, indicating potential for valuation uplift. The company's revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reached HKD 218.5 billion and HKD 134.2 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 37% and 45% [5][6] - The report anticipates continued high growth in the company's fundamentals, driven by a recovery in IPO activities and sustained inflows of southbound capital, with a forecasted increase in ADT for 2025-2027 [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, trading, settlement, listing, custody, data, and other investment income grew by 57%, 66%, 16%, 25%, 8%, 10%, and 4% year-on-year, respectively. The core driver of revenue growth is the significant increase in trading and settlement fees directly linked to ADT [5][6] - The company has revised its ADT assumptions for 2025-2027 to HKD 2,580 billion, HKD 2,620 billion, and HKD 2,700 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 96%, 2%, and 3% [5][6] Market Outlook - The primary market for Hong Kong stocks is experiencing high demand, with 69 new listings in Q1-Q3 2025, a 53% increase year-on-year, and total fundraising amounting to HKD 1,883 billion, more than three times that of the same period in 2024 [7] - The report notes that the trading volume is expected to remain active due to the influx of quality assets from Chinese concept stocks returning to Hong Kong and the wave of A-share listings in Hong Kong [7] Valuation and Dividend - The expected dividend yield for 2025 is 3.0%, assuming a constant payout ratio of 90%. The report suggests that a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve could drive foreign capital back into the Hong Kong market, benefiting the exchange [8] - The current PE ratio is 31.2, which is at the 22nd percentile of the past ten years, indicating room for valuation improvement [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company with a target price of HKD 1,200 [6]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong business performance since 2025, with effective price adjustments ensuring high gross margins despite new tax policies. The growth in membership and repurchase rates, along with positive market feedback on new products, indicates a robust future outlook [1][2]. - The company is leveraging a dual strategy of "cultural empowerment + craftsmanship innovation" to drive product innovation, maintaining a steady pace of new product launches that resonate well in the market [2]. - The company has expanded its offline high-end channel presence and initiated overseas expansion, with significant online sales growth. The opening of new stores in major domestic commercial centers and international locations marks a strategic move towards global presence [3]. - Recent tax policy changes are expected to increase procurement costs across the industry, but the company is well-positioned to leverage its pricing power and cost control capabilities to enhance its competitive advantage [3]. - The company completed a placement of new H shares, raising approximately HKD 27.07 billion to strengthen its supply chain resilience and meet seasonal demand, with a significant portion allocated for inventory reserves [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 project net profits of RMB 49.1 billion, RMB 62.1 billion, and RMB 75.8 billion respectively, reflecting strong growth potential [5]. Summary by Sections Products - The company is innovating through the integration of intangible cultural heritage techniques with modern design, leading to successful product launches such as the "Seven Sons Gourd" and "Cross Pendant" series, which have received positive market responses [2]. Channels - The company has opened 10 new stores since 2025, including a flagship store in Shanghai and its first overseas store in Singapore, indicating a comprehensive domestic and international expansion strategy. Online sales have surged, with a reported 874% year-on-year growth in sales from July to September 2025 [3]. Future Outlook - The recent share placement enhances liquidity for inventory management during peak seasons, with a focus on maintaining a diversified procurement strategy to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating gold prices [4]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 26.623 billion in 2025, reflecting a 213% increase from the previous year. The net profit margin is expected to remain strong, with a projected net profit of RMB 4.914 billion for 2025 [10][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 121.67 [7]. Core Insights - The main brand, Han Shu, continues to grow rapidly, with the GMV of the Hongbai waist set products optimized to below 50% in October, and the annual GMV of the secondary products category nearing 15% [2]. - The company has a strong multi-brand potential, with significant growth expected from brands like Newpage, 聚光白, 安敏优, and 极方, contributing to overall revenue growth [3]. - The organization is efficient and flexible, with a robust online capability and a well-structured team that supports the continuous incubation of differentiated multi-brands [4]. - The overseas expansion is progressing steadily, with plans to enter the Indonesian market in 2026, leveraging local strategies and the brand's competitive advantages [4]. Summary by Sections Brand Performance - Han Shu maintains rapid growth, with a diversified product structure and significant contributions from various categories, including men's care and cosmetics [2]. - New product launches, such as the upgraded 白蛮腰 series, are anticipated to drive future growth [2]. Multi-Brand Development - Newpage achieved over HKD 100 million in GMV in October, with a target of HKD 800-1,000 million for 2025 [3]. - 聚光白 has shown profitability and potential in the whitening segment, while 安敏优 is experiencing accelerated growth post-adjustment [3]. Organizational Efficiency - The company emphasizes a strategy of attracting top talent and building a strong organizational culture, which supports its multi-brand strategy [4]. - The self-broadcasting system on platforms like Douyin has been established with a large team, achieving a self-broadcasting ratio of nearly 85% in 2025 [4]. Overseas Strategy - The company is preparing for its entry into the Southeast Asian market, particularly Indonesia, with a focus on localized operations and leveraging the brand's quality-price advantage [4]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 1.101 billion, RMB 1.379 billion, and RMB 1.717 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 2.77, RMB 3.46, and RMB 4.31 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a rare AI computing chip supplier, leveraging self-developed AI large language models and industry knowledge to provide cutting-edge chip application solutions and supply chain management services [1][9] - The company achieved significant revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 6.676 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 54.5%, and a net profit of 132 million RMB, up 17.2% year-on-year [1][20] - The report highlights the explosive demand for AI-driven chips, with global computing power expected to reach 14,130 EFlops by 2029, and the AI chip market projected to grow to 400 billion USD by 2027 [2][9] Summary by Sections 1. AI Computing Demand and Revenue Growth - The company has established a comprehensive chip-end-cloud industry chain layout, capturing explosive demand for AI computing, resulting in a revenue increase of 54.5% in the first half of 2025 [1][20] - The company operates through two main platforms: KETON Technology, which serves as a core supplier in the AI computing supply chain, and Hard Egg Technology, focusing on AIoT data and technology services [1][17] 2. AI Chip Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the scarcity of high-end computing resources driven by AI large models, with demand for computing power increasing exponentially [2][9] - The global AI chip market is expected to grow significantly, with infrastructure spending projected to reach 3-4 trillion USD by 2030 [2][9] 3. Physical AI and Technological Advancements - The emergence of physical AI is anticipated to transform industries valued at 50 trillion USD, with NVIDIA's platforms aiding in overcoming technological barriers [3][9] - The company is positioned to leverage NVIDIA's Jetson series products to provide AI solutions in robotics and other applications [3][9] 4. Self-Developed SOM and Growth Potential - The company is developing self-researched System on Module (SOM) products, which are expected to create a second growth curve by expanding into larger edge applications [4][9] - The SOM market is projected to exceed 3.22 billion USD by 2025 and 7.76 billion USD by 2035, indicating significant growth potential [4][9] 5. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 13.36 billion RMB, 20.03 billion RMB, and 27.08 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 250 million RMB, 379 million RMB, and 502 million RMB [9][11] - The report highlights the company's valuation advantages, with projected P/E ratios of 16.7, 11.2, and 8.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [9][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 1.15 per share, indicating a potential upside of 17.3% from the current price of HKD 0.98 [6][17]. Core Insights - The company has experienced significant operational pressure in recent years, but it has managed to reduce losses substantially in the first half of 2025, with a net loss of HKD 0.84 billion compared to HKD 2.72 billion in the same period last year. This improvement is attributed to lower raw material costs and reduced asset impairment losses [8][6]. - The company has initiated an internal partnership system aimed at stabilizing and expanding its store network, with plans to add 60 partnership stores by the end of 2026. Currently, there are 763 stores under the main brand, with a slight increase in the number of stores compared to the end of 2024 [4][11]. - The "Couch" brand is under significant pressure, currently in a phase of store closures, with a total of 174 stores as of the first half of 2025. The brand's same-store sales have declined by 14.0% [5][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of HKD 19.42 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.88%. The main brand contributed HKD 11.35 billion, down 13.5%, while the "Couch" brand generated HKD 7.45 billion, down 25.8% [8][6]. - The company expects net profits for 2025 to be -HKD 2.42 billion, improving to -HKD 0.21 billion in 2026, and turning positive with HKD 0.11 billion in 2027 [6][17]. Store Network and Strategy - As of the first half of 2025, the company operates 763 stores, with a breakdown of 42.6% in first-tier cities, 41.0% in second-tier cities, and 16.0% in lower-tier cities. The store count has stabilized, with a net increase of 3 stores compared to the end of 2024 [4][10]. - The company has implemented a "dual-point" model for the "Couch" brand, which has shown promising results, with a 49% increase in performance compared to traditional stores [12][5]. Cost Management - The company has seen a reduction in raw material costs by 22.5% to HKD 6.41 billion, contributing to an improved cost-to-revenue ratio of 33.02% [8][6]. - Employee costs have decreased by 18.1% to HKD 6.67 billion, with a reduction in workforce from 24,606 to 17,930 employees [8][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant improvement in ADT-related businesses, indicating potential for valuation uplift. The company's revenue and profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 reached HKD 218.5 billion and HKD 134.2 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 37% and 45% [5][6] - The report anticipates continued high growth in the company's fundamentals, driven by increased trading volumes and a favorable market environment, including the return of Chinese concept stocks and sustained net inflows from southbound capital [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, trading, settlement, listing, custody, data, and other investment net income grew by 57%, 66%, 16%, 25%, 8%, 10%, and 4% year-on-year, respectively. The core driver of revenue growth is the significant increase in trading and settlement fees directly linked to ADT [5][6] - The report revises the ADT assumptions for Hong Kong stocks for 2025-2027 to HKD 2,580 billion, HKD 2,620 billion, and HKD 2,700 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 96%, 2%, and 3%, respectively. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is adjusted to HKD 179 billion, HKD 192 billion, and HKD 202 billion for the same period, with corresponding EPS of HKD 14, HKD 15, and HKD 16 [5][6] Market Trends and Drivers - The report notes a robust primary market for Hong Kong stocks, with 69 new listings in Q1-Q3 2025, a 53% increase year-on-year, and total fundraising amounting to HKD 1,883 billion, more than three times that of the same period in 2024. The number of new stock applications being processed reached 297, over three times the 84 applications at the end of 2024 [7] - The report emphasizes that the high trading volume indirectly boosts income from custody, trustee, and agent services, as well as market data fees, which grew by 25% and 8% year-on-year, respectively [7] Valuation and Dividend Outlook - The investment income for Q1-Q3 2025 was HKD 38.9 billion, a 4% year-on-year increase. The expected dividend yield for 2025 is projected at 3.0%, assuming a constant payout ratio of 90%. The report suggests that a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve could drive foreign capital back to the Hong Kong market, benefiting the exchange [8] - The current PE ratio is 31.2, positioned at the 22nd percentile over the past decade, with a dynamic PE of 30.2, indicating potential for valuation improvement [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6][24] Core Insights - The new generation ATTC platform is expected to address the toxicity and resistance issues associated with traditional ADCs, with potential for combination therapy with chemotherapy as a first-line standard treatment [2][3][23] - HMPL-A251 is the first candidate drug from the ATTC platform expected to enter clinical trials in Q4 2025, combining PI3K/PIKK inhibitors with HER2 antibodies [2][7][23] - The PAM pathway is identified as a promising target for broad tumor treatment, and the ATTC platform aims to expand the therapeutic window for targeted therapies [2][12][23] - The company's later pipeline is progressing smoothly, with clinical data for surufatinib in first-line PDAC expected to be presented at the ESMO Asia conference, and the SAFFRON study of savolitinib combined with osimertinib has completed patient enrollment [2][23] Summary by Sections ATTC Platform - The ATTC platform aims to overcome the toxicity and resistance challenges of traditional ADCs by targeting specific mutations, potentially reducing chemotherapy toxicity and enabling combination therapy [3][23] - HMPL-A251, the first clinical candidate from the ATTC platform, is designed to effectively inhibit the PAM pathway and has shown strong anti-tumor activity in HER2-positive models [7][8][12] Clinical Development - HMPL-A251 has received IND approval in the US, with the Chinese IND under review, and is expected to start Phase 1 clinical trials in Q4 2025 [8][12] - The clinical strategy includes enrolling HER2-positive or low-expressing patients and retrospective testing for PAM status [8][10] Future Pipeline - Besides HMPL-A251, two additional ATTC candidates (HMPL-A580 and HMPL-A830) are expected to enter global clinical stages in 2026 [12][23] - The PAM pathway is highlighted as a significant target due to its role in various cancers, with existing therapies showing limited clinical benefits due to associated toxicity [12][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Yum China Holdings [2][13] Core Insights - The company's 3Q25 performance met expectations, with revenue of USD 3.206 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and adjusted net profit of USD 282 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5% [3][12] - Same-store sales continued to show positive growth, with overall sales increasing by 4%, and KFC and Pizza Hut sales growing by 5% and 4% respectively [3][4] - The company plans to expand its store network significantly, with a target of adding 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, supported by franchise strategies [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached USD 8.974 billion, a 3% increase year-on-year, while adjusted net profit was USD 789 million, down 1% [3][12] - The company reported a gross profit margin of 68.2% for 2025, with expectations of gradual improvement in the coming years [7][13] - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is USD 11.63 billion, USD 12.16 billion, and USD 12.76 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.9%, 4.6%, and 4.9% [7][13] Store Expansion and Franchise Strategy - As of 3Q25, Yum China had a total of 17,514 restaurants, with a net increase of 536 stores in the third quarter alone [4] - The company aims for franchise stores to account for 40%-50% of new KFC stores and 20%-30% of new Pizza Hut stores [4][5] - The restaurant profit margin improved to 17.3%, driven by reductions in food and packaging costs, as well as lower rental and operational expenses [4][7] New Business Developments - The membership base for KFC and Pizza Hut reached approximately 575 million, with member sales accounting for 57% of total sales [5] - Digital orders contributed USD 2.8 billion, representing 95% of restaurant revenue [5] - The new coffee brand, KFC Coffee, has exceeded expectations with over 1,800 locations and significant sales growth [5] Shareholder Returns - In 3Q25, the company returned USD 410 million to shareholders, with USD 330 million in stock buybacks and USD 90 million in cash dividends [5] - The company is on track to meet its goal of returning USD 1.5 billion to shareholders by the end of 2025 [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388.HK) [1] Core Views - The report highlights significant growth in trading fees and listing fees, driven by high market activity and low operational expenditure growth [1][2] - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 21.851 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 37%, with net profit rising by 45% to HKD 13.419 billion [1] - The report anticipates continued profitability growth, with projected net profits of HKD 17.786 billion, HKD 19.152 billion, and HKD 20.811 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Revenue Breakdown - Trading and transaction fees, listing fees, settlement and clearing fees, and market data fees showed year-on-year growth rates of 57%, 17%, 66%, and 8% respectively, contributing to the overall revenue [1][2] - The average daily trading volume for equity securities increased by 132% year-on-year, leading to a 123% rise in trading fee income [2] - The number of new listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange increased by 24 to a total of 69, with IPO and refinancing amounts growing by 239% and 274% respectively [3] Profitability Forecast - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of HKD 14.07, HKD 15.12, and HKD 16.40 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 30, 28, and 26 [4][8] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise to 31.8% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [8]