证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 25 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 03 | 月 24 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | 3.00 | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | 4.27/2.81 | | | 元） | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | 37,110.45 | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | 37,110.45 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 68.42 | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | 中国电力(02380.HK) 投资评级 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is entering a sustainable profit phase, with positive earnings guidance for 2025 [5] - The company reported a net profit of $37.7 million for 2024, exceeding expectations, indicating financial self-sufficiency [7] - The core product, furmonertinib, has exceeded market expectations in global sales, and the company is expanding its pipeline with tangible progress [7] - The company has a strong cash position of $836.1 million as of the end of 2024, supporting future drug development [7] - The 2025 revenue guidance for the oncology/immunology business is set between $350 million and $450 million, driven by continued growth in furmonertinib sales [7] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2023 is projected at $838 million, with a significant decline of 24.8% in 2024, followed by a recovery to $694 million in 2025, and further growth to $844 million in 2026 and $996 million in 2027 [6][11] - The net profit is expected to rebound dramatically from $38 million in 2024 to $393 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 942.79% [6][11] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from $0.04 in 2024 to $0.45 in 2025 [6][11] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise significantly to 34.2% in 2025 [6] Company Events and Future Catalysts - The company plans to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) for savolitinib in the second-line NSCLC indication in 2025, with promising clinical data [7] - The company is advancing its antibody-drug conjugate (ATTC) platform, which is expected to start clinical trials in the second half of 2025 [7] - The company has a diversified and validated late-stage product pipeline, with several drugs expected to receive regulatory approvals in China [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 12.261 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.3%, and a profit of 4.372 billion CNY, up 33.4% year-on-year [1][2]. - The sales revenue from innovative drugs and collaborative products reached 9.477 billion CNY in 2024, a 38.1% increase, accounting for 77.3% of total revenue [7]. - The company has shown strong cost control, with a gross margin of 91% in 2024, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company is actively pursuing global collaborations, enhancing its competitive edge, with significant partnerships established in 2024 [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 13.714 billion CNY, 15.395 billion CNY, and 17.378 billion CNY, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 12%, and 13% [2][9]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 4.588 billion CNY, 5.152 billion CNY, and 5.930 billion CNY, with growth rates of 5%, 12%, and 15% respectively [7][9]. - The company’s PE ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 24.6, 21.9, and 19.1 [9]. Shareholder Information - The total market capitalization of the company is 120.5 billion HKD, with a total share capital of 5,936 million shares [3]. - The major shareholder, Sunrise Investment Advisors Limited, holds a 65.7% stake in the company [3]. Performance Metrics - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is reported at 15.2% for 2024, with a projected increase to 15.4% by 2027 [9]. - The asset-liability ratio is notably low at 9.4% in 2024, indicating strong financial stability [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][8] Core Views - The education industry remains buoyant, with the company experiencing significant revenue growth in 2024 and further potential for growth in 2025 [3][8] - The company has shown a remarkable increase in contract liabilities, indicating strong pre-sales in its quality education segment [8] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 11.02 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 125.2% [8] - Gross profit for 2024 is expected to be 5.10 billion RMB, up 121.9% year-on-year [8] - Net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 1.92 billion RMB, reflecting a 114% increase compared to the previous year [8] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is estimated at 46.3%, slightly down by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [8] - Contract liabilities reached 6.02 billion RMB, a significant increase of 184.27% year-on-year, primarily driven by prepayments in the quality education business [8] Business Segmentation - Revenue from quality education in 2024 is expected to be 7.13 billion RMB, a substantial increase of 411.75% year-on-year [8] - Full-time education revenue is projected at 2.07 billion RMB, with a modest growth of 0.98% year-on-year [8] - Tutoring project revenue is anticipated to be 1.81 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.20% [8] Market Position and Technology Integration - The company is expected to enhance its market share in the Guangzhou and Shenzhen markets, supported by AI applications that improve operational efficiency [8] - The integration of AI into the company's educational systems aims to provide personalized learning experiences and improve teaching effectiveness [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][19]. Core Insights - The adjusted net profit exceeded Bloomberg consensus expectations, with significant improvement in core OTA profitability [2][3]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.8%, and an adjusted net profit of 660 million yuan, up 36.8% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 15.6% [3]. - The core OTA business showed a notable improvement in operating profit margin, which increased by 6.8 percentage points to 28.4% year-on-year [3][5]. Revenue Breakdown - The transportation business generated revenue of 1.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.0%, with international ticket market share expanding rapidly, and annual business volume growing over 130% [5]. - Accommodation business revenue reached 1.14 billion yuan, up 28.6% year-on-year, with international hotel business maintaining industry-leading growth, and annual business volume increasing over 110% [5]. - Other business revenue was 600 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, with the Yilong hotel technology platform expanding to nearly 2,300 hotels [5]. - Vacation business revenue was 780 million yuan, driven by product and service value, supporting over 1,000 travel agency stores [5]. User Metrics - The average monthly paying user count reached a historical high of 43.1 million, up 4.4% year-on-year, with an annual paying user count of 240 million, an increase of 1.5% [6]. - The total service user count for the year reached 1.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [6]. Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestion - The company is positioned as a leading OTA in the lower-tier market, benefiting from Tencent and Ctrip's traffic and inventory resources, with competitive advantages in domestic business and active international market expansion [7]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is raised to 3.4 billion, 4.0 billion, and 4.7 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13, 11, and 9 times [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Conant Optical (02276.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly from 2024 to 2026, with projected revenues of 20.6 billion, 23.7 billion, and 27.5 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 16.9%, 15.1%, and 16.3% respectively [6] - The net profit is forecasted to increase to 4.3 billion, 5.7 billion, and 6.9 billion RMB for the same period, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 32.2%, 31.4%, and 21.4% [6] - The company is positioned as a leading supplier of resin lenses, focusing on high-value customized and high-refractive lenses, which are expected to enhance profitability [7][8] - The report highlights the company's strategic partnerships with leading global consumer electronics firms to capitalize on the XR (Extended Reality) industry, which is anticipated to drive future growth [8] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Conant Optical is a leading provider of resin eyeglass lenses, focusing on both standardized and high-end customized lenses [15] - The company has undergone restructuring to concentrate on its resin lens business, enhancing operational efficiency [15] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 1.76 billion RMB in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [9] - The gross margin has improved from 33% in 2019 to 39% in the first half of 2024, driven by an increase in the proportion of customized and high-refractive lenses [31] Market Trends - The global eyeglass lens manufacturing market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.6% from 2023 to 2028 [7][45] - The demand for high-refractive lenses is expected to rise as consumer preferences shift towards lighter and thinner lenses [42] XR Industry Engagement - The company has established an XR R&D service center and is collaborating with several leading consumer electronics companies on various projects [8][65] - A new automated production line for XR-compatible lenses is planned to be built in Thailand, indicating the company's commitment to expanding its capabilities in this emerging market [8][65]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 850 million RMB for 2024, representing a 49% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 176 million RMB, which is a 63% increase [1]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to an increase in tutoring hours and operational efficiency improvements [1][2]. - The company is expanding its business in Guangzhou and has launched new educational tourism and international courses, aiming to diversify its revenue streams [2]. - Future revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.18 billion RMB, 1.61 billion RMB, and 2.19 billion RMB respectively, with net profits expected to be 236 million RMB, 321 million RMB, and 433 million RMB [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 850 million RMB, with non-academic courses contributing 770 million RMB, and tutoring course revenue reaching 86 million RMB [1]. - The number of enrolled students increased to 350,000, with tutoring course hours totaling 8.69 million [1]. Business Development - The company is actively working on re-establishing its presence in the Guangzhou market, which has shown positive initial results [2]. - It aims to enhance its service offerings in various educational areas, including arts, sports, and logic training, to support balanced development for students [2]. Future Outlook - The company plans to leverage its brand influence and management expertise to explore new opportunities and expand its revenue base [2]. - Cost control measures will be strictly implemented to maintain healthy cash flow while enhancing service quality through technology and AI [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Taiping (00966.HK) [7] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in the new business value (NBV) of 94% on a comparable basis, alongside a substantial growth in comprehensive investment returns [7] - The company is expected to focus on high-quality development strategies in life insurance and prioritize profitability in property insurance [7] Financial Performance Summary - Insurance service revenue is projected to reach 111,268 million HKD in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 8,432 million HKD in 2024, reflecting a 36.2% increase year-on-year [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 2.3 HKD in 2024, up from 1.7 HKD in 2023 [6] - The embedded value (EV) per share is estimated at 48.6 HKD for 2024, with a projected increase in subsequent years [6] Business Segment Insights - Life Insurance: The new business value (NBV) for Taiping Life is expected to be 8,430 million HKD in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 23.8% [7] - Property Insurance: The comprehensive cost ratio for Taiping Property Insurance is reported at 98.1%, showing a slight improvement [7] - Investment Strategy: The company has shifted its investment strategy to increase bond allocations while reducing stock and fund investments, resulting in a total investment income of 66.5 billion HKD, a 98% increase year-on-year [7] Valuation Metrics - The current market capitalization is approximately 44,997.11 million HKD, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.34 for 2024 [5][6] - The price-to-embedded value (P/EV) ratio is projected at 0.24 for 2025, indicating a low valuation relative to expected growth [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company is expected to significantly enhance its profitability in 2024 driven by its professional sports segment, with a retail transformation for its main brand commencing in 2025 [5][6] - The company plans to recover 400-500 distribution rights for its stores, focusing on direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies to optimize retail channel structure and improve operational efficiency [6][8] Financial Data and Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from 13,577 million HKD in 2024 to 17,005 million HKD by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.86% [6][9] - Net profit is expected to increase from 1,238 million HKD in 2024 to 1,607 million HKD in 2027, with a net profit margin improvement from 9.1% to 9.5% over the same period [6][9] - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to rise from 43.2% in 2024 to 44.7% in 2027, indicating improved cost management and pricing power [6][9] Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 5.27 HKD on March 24, 2025, with a market capitalization of 14,622 million HKD [2][5] - The stock has experienced a price fluctuation range between 3.70 HKD and 7.13 HKD over the past year [2] Strategic Developments - The company has completed a strategic divestment of its fashion sports business, allowing it to focus on running and optimizing operations in the professional sports segment [6][8] - The company is expanding its product offerings and enhancing its brand strategy, particularly in high-end urban areas, with plans for new flagship and concept stores [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][13]. Core Views - The core local business segment's profit exceeded expectations, and Keeta is building a second growth curve [6][13]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 88.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%, and adjusted EBITDA of 11.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 207.7% [6][10]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents of 70.8 billion yuan [6][12]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company is expanding its multi-category supply and increasing support for merchants in its takeaway and instant retail businesses. New models like "Pin Hao Fan" and "Brand Satellite Stores" are being introduced to help merchants increase sales and attract new customers [7]. - The company launched a 1 billion yuan "Merchant Support Plan" in Q4 2024 to optimize merchant efficiency and innovation through cash and subsidies [7]. Performance Metrics - The core local business generated revenue of 65.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, with operating profit of 12.9 billion yuan, up 60.9%, and an operating margin of 19.7% [9]. - New business revenue in Q4 2024 was 22.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, with operating losses narrowing to 2.2 billion yuan, a 55.0% improvement [9]. Financial Data and Forecasts - The company forecasts revenues of 337.6 billion yuan for 2024, 394.2 billion yuan for 2025, and 455.4 billion yuan for 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.99%, 16.76%, and 15.53% respectively [10]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at 35.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 158.43% [10]. - The estimated reasonable market value for 2025 is between 1.09 trillion and 1.27 trillion Hong Kong dollars, translating to a reasonable share price range of 179 to 209 Hong Kong dollars [13][15].