证券研究报告 卓胜微 (300782 CH) 1Q25：毛利率受折旧影响进一步下降 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 29 日│中国内地 | 半导体 | 维持公司 25-27 年归母净利预测 4.36/9.13/13.91 亿元，公司 12 寸产线产 能爬坡进展顺利，且 WiFi7、LPAMiD 等发射端模组产品陆续量产，给予 10x 25 年 PS（可比估值 7.7x），维持目标价 93.4 元，给予"买入"评级。 风险提示：智能手机需求不及预期，新品研发进度不及预期，价格竞争加剧。 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 (人民币百万) | 4,378 | 4,487 | 4,995 | 5,851 | 6,739 | | +/-% | 19.05 | 2.48 | 11.32 | 17.13 | 15.18 | | 归属母公司净利润 (人民币百万) | ...

证券研究报告 基地市场稳固，Q1 实现稳增 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 29 日│中国内地 | 饮料 | 公司发布 24 年年报及 25 年一季度公告，24 年营收 60.1 亿，同比+0.9%， 归母净利 16.6 亿，同比-3.8%；24Q4 营收 16.5 亿，同比+9.0%，归母净利 3.4 亿，同比-7.5%；公司 24 年业绩基本符合市场预期（Wind 一致预期为 营收同比-2%，归母净利同比-3%，25 年 4 月 27 日数据）。25Q1 营收 18.1 亿，同比+2.4%，归母净利 6.1 亿，同比+3.6%。24 年公司在行业需求平淡 的背景下经营保持稳健，25 年一季度继续保持增长势头，展现出较强韧性。 展望 2025 年，公司将持续推进兼系列培育突破，营销改革充分理顺；期待 行业需求改善，渠道信心逐步恢复，迎来内外共振，"增持"。 基地市场表现稳健，兼系列新品布局完善 产品端，24 年高档/中档/低端白酒分别实现营收 56.8/0.7/1.3 亿，同比 +0.1%/-10.4%/+33.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 5.721 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 47.69% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 27.44%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.042 billion RMB, up 64.85% year-over-year and down 28.00% quarter-over-quarter, falling within the expected range of 1.858 to 2.106 billion RMB [1][2]. - The strong growth in Q1 is primarily driven by excellent investment performance and growth in brokerage services. The company has a well-established wealth management ecosystem and significant advantages in international business [1][2]. - The investment business generated 3.396 billion RMB in revenue, accounting for 59% of total revenue, with a year-over-year increase of 83%, marking it as the core driver of the high growth in performance [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company's total assets were 673.2 billion RMB, a slight decrease of 0.22% from the beginning of the year. The leverage ratio was 4.83x, down 0.15x from the start of the year [2]. - The financial investment scale reached 380.254 billion RMB, up 2.29% year-to-date, with trading financial assets at 285.434 billion RMB, also up 2.31% [2]. Brokerage and Asset Management - The net income from brokerage services was 1.298 billion RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 56.27%. The company is transitioning towards a "buy-side advisory" business model, launching various product systems [3]. - The net income from asset management was 308 million RMB, up 15.25% year-over-year [3]. Investment Banking - Investment banking revenue faced pressure, with net income of 403 million RMB in Q1 2025, down 10.5% year-over-year. The underwriting scale for equity business was 4.7 billion RMB, down 44% year-over-year, while bond underwriting increased by 36% to 298.4 billion RMB [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.39, 1.55, and 1.70 RMB, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 1%, 4%, and 5% [5]. - The target price for A/H shares is set at 42.59 RMB and 18.88 HKD, with a price-to-book (PB) valuation premium of 1.70 and 0.70 times, respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price based on the last closing price of 44.46 [1][6]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company reported a slight decline in revenue of 2.53% year-on-year, totaling 173 million yuan, while net profit increased by 13.12% to 26 million yuan. The growth in profit is attributed to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [4][5]. - The company is expanding its overseas business, establishing subsidiaries in Hong Kong and Australia, which is expected to accelerate its international presence. Additionally, favorable policies in the healthcare sector may lead to a recovery in the domestic clinical CRO industry [6][5]. - The company forecasts revenue growth from 777 million yuan in 2025 to 966 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from 147 million yuan to 181 million yuan during the same period [7][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 173 million yuan, down 2.53% year-on-year, while net profit was 26 million yuan, up 13.12%. The adjusted net profit was 20 million yuan, reflecting a 23.26% increase [4][5]. - The company's expense ratios improved, with management expenses decreasing by 4.06 percentage points to 11.58%, and sales expenses down by 0.08 percentage points to 1.88%. The gross margin was 36.53%, a decrease of 1.31 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin increased by 1.99 percentage points to 15.28% [5][6]. Business Outlook - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in its SMO business, while its statistical business remains stable. However, clinical and testing services have seen a decline [5]. - The revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 indicate a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.42%, 9.53%, and 13.47%, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 4.58%, 9.72%, and 12.46% [6][7]. Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 30, 27, and 24, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook as the company grows [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Daoming Optics [1][7]. Core Insights - Daoming Optics has solidified its leading position in reflective materials, with a significant increase in revenue and profit in 2024. The company achieved a revenue of 1.441 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.96%, and a net profit of 170 million yuan, up 8.44% year-on-year. The company also plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.3 yuan per 10 shares [4][5]. - The core business of reflective materials reached a record high in revenue, with a 25% increase in sales volume, contributing to 74.27% of total revenue. The domestic market share for license plate film has risen to 35%. The company has successfully broken the monopoly of 3M with its micro-prism reflective film technology, which has been applied in major projects [5][6]. - The new materials segment is poised for growth, with a revenue of 140 million yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.36% increase. The company is also expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in the Middle East and South America, and is set to launch a new production line for micro-prism reflective film in 2025 [5][6]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.441 billion yuan and a net profit of 170 million yuan. The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.561 billion yuan, 1.705 billion yuan, and 1.863 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 206 million yuan, 231 million yuan, and 250 million yuan [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.27 yuan for 2024, increasing to 0.33 yuan in 2025, 0.37 yuan in 2026, and 0.40 yuan in 2027 [9].

业绩简评 4 月 28 日公司发布 24 年报和 25Q1 季报，24 年公司营收/归母净 利 / 扣非净利 分别同比 -3.81%/-29.38%/-26.92% 至 184.8/14.17/13.01 亿元，其中 24Q4 收入同比-7.8%至 46.8 亿元。 25Q1 营收/归母净利/扣非净利分别同比+12.9%/+23.5%/+22.2%至 49.1/5.2/4.6 亿元。分红为每股现金分红 1.38 元。 计提减值影响 24 年业绩，收入结构变化致毛利率小幅下降：公司 24 年整体利润下降除经营性因素外主因一方面公司计提 20 红星 03 债券减值 2.13 亿，另一方面 2024 年商誉减值 0.5 亿元及剥离 部分子公司。毛利率方面，公司 24 年/25 年 Q1 毛利率同比-0.1/- 0.7pct 至 32.72%/32.40%，预计主因公司一方面低毛利率的定制 家具业务在内销收入中占比提升，另一方面低毛利率的外销收入 占比 24 年提升。费用率方面，公司 24 年销售/管理/研发/财务费 用率分别同比+0.5/+0.2/+0.2/-0.2pct 至 17.8%/2.0%/1.5%/- 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [8][15]. Core Insights - The company reported excellent performance in Q1 2025, with significant revenue growth and deepening global capacity layout [1][10]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.952 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.92%, and a net profit of 511 million yuan, up 18.56% [4][9]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6.40 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 257 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 50.28% [4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 793 million yuan, a 15.27% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 156 million yuan, up 28.73% [4][6]. - The gross margin improved from 29.50% in Q4 2024 to 32.55% in Q1 2025, while the net margin increased from 16.98% to 19.67% in the same period [6]. - The company’s revenue from leisure grass, sports grass, and paving business in 2024 was 2.052 billion yuan, 594 million yuan, and 288 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 22.43%, 6.38%, and 37.18% [5]. Capacity Expansion - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects in Vietnam and Mexico, aiming for a total annual capacity of 172 million square meters after completion [7]. - The Vietnam facility is expected to produce 40 million square meters of artificial turf annually, while the Mexico facility is projected to produce 16 million square meters [7]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 600 million yuan, 703 million yuan, and 812 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.49 yuan, 1.75 yuan, and 2.02 yuan [9][12]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the next few years are 16.10% for 2025, 14.60% for 2026, and 12.40% for 2027 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][20]. Core Insights - The company's main business is experiencing a strong recovery, and its humanoid robot business is poised for significant growth. The automotive parts segment is solidifying its advantages, with a notable increase in profitability. The company has strategically positioned itself in the humanoid robot core components market, achieving domestic substitution and reducing production costs [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve total revenue of 49.10 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.64%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 4.97 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 514.49% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted at 1.24 yuan [3][7]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 55.78 billion yuan, 65.52 billion yuan, and 78.73 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 13.6%, 17.5%, and 20.2%. The net profit for these years is projected to be 5.34 billion yuan, 6.17 billion yuan, and 7.67 billion yuan, with growth rates of 7.4%, 15.7%, and 24.3% [3][7]. Business Segment Analysis - The automotive parts business is consolidating its market position, with key products like seat horizontal actuators being supplied to major automakers such as BYD and Changan. The company has also made significant advancements in electric drive systems for popular models like the Wuling Hongguang MINI [7]. - The humanoid robot screw business is expected to open a second growth curve, with the company achieving domestic production of key components and establishing a trial production line of 12,000 sets by the end of 2024 [7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is capitalizing on domestic substitution opportunities in the automotive sector, with its hub bearing products being supplied to leading automakers. Additionally, it is accelerating its global expansion by establishing subsidiaries in Thailand and Singapore, enhancing supply chain responsiveness and cost advantages [7].

24 年行业景气度下滑，公司业绩承压 华泰研究 年报点评 2025 年 4 月 29 日│中国内地 钢铁 证券研究报告 宝钢股份 (600019 CH) 宝钢股份发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，2024 年实现营收 3221.16 亿元（yoy-6.60%），归母净利 73.62 亿元（yoy-38.36%），低于我们先前的 预期（归母净利 89.56 亿元），主因钢铁行业景气偏弱。2025 Q1 实现营收 728.80 亿元（yoy-9.82%、qoq-8.05%），归母净利 24.34 亿元（yoy+26.37%、 qoq+64.49%）。钢铁行业供给侧优化或渐近，公司作为行业龙头，有望充 分受益于行业利润修复，维持"买入"评级。 2024 年钢铁行业景气度下滑，公司业绩承压 公司 2024 年钢铁产品产量和销量分别为 5141、5159 万吨，同比-1.0%、 -0.6%；钢材综合平均销售价格 4056 元/吨（不含税），同比-6.9%，主因钢 铁行业景气度下滑较多，但价格下行幅度少于中钢协 CSPI钢材价格指数（同 比-13.05%）。公司 2024 年销售毛利率、期间费用率、净利率分别 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 27.04 RMB [8][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 64.65 billion RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.60% [7]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with a total of 506.97 billion RMB in hand orders by the end of 2024, indicating robust business development [4]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the construction of new power systems, leading to sustained and stable growth in performance [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 57.42 billion RMB (+11.33% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.61 billion RMB (+5.94% year-on-year) [7]. - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 8.90 billion RMB (+14.76% year-on-year) and a net profit of 680 million RMB (+14.14% year-on-year) [2]. Business Segments - The company’s revenue from smart grid, digital energy integration, and low-carbon energy segments for 2024 was 28.47 billion RMB (+10.70%), 12.37 billion RMB (+11.05%), and 12.19 billion RMB (+26.43%) respectively [3]. - The industrial interconnection segment saw a decline of 9.51% year-on-year, while the integrated and other businesses experienced a decrease of 23.89% [3]. Profitability and Dividends - The company maintained a dividend payout ratio of 60% in 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.26% [2]. - The gross and net profit margins for 2024 were 26.66% and 14.19%, respectively, indicating stable profitability [2]. Future Projections - The company plans to achieve a revenue of 64.65 billion RMB in 2025, with a projected net profit of 8.33 billion RMB [5]. - The estimated PE ratio for 2025 is set at 22.27, reflecting the company's strong market position and technological advantages [5][23].