Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The core education business shows steady revenue growth, while the overseas and cultural tourism businesses are dragging down profits [1] - For FY25Q3, the company achieved net revenue of $1.183 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $87 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [5][6] Revenue Performance - FY25Q3 net revenue (excluding revenue from self-operated products and live e-commerce) was $1.038 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.2%, aligning with previous guidance [6] - Breakdown of revenue sources includes: - Overseas exam preparation business: revenue grew by 7.1% - Overseas consulting business: revenue grew by 21.4% - Domestic exam preparation for adults and university students: revenue grew by 17.0% - New education business: revenue grew by 34.5% [6] Profitability Analysis - FY25Q3 operating profit margin was 10.5%, up from 9.4% in the same period last year; Non-GAAP operating profit margin was 12.0%, compared to 11.8% [8] - The report anticipates that the core education business's Non-GAAP operating profit margin will improve year-on-year in FY25Q4, despite pressures from the overseas high-end one-on-one business and cultural tourism [8] Future Outlook - The company expects FY25Q4 net revenue (excluding self-operated products and live e-commerce) to be between $1.009 billion and $1.037 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 10%-13% [7] - The revenue growth rate is expected to slow down due to increased base effects and macroeconomic uncertainties [7] Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for FY2025-2027 to $406 million, $536 million, and $679 million, respectively, reflecting a conservative outlook [9] - Corresponding EPS for FY2025-2027 is projected to be $0.25, $0.33, and $0.42, with current stock price corresponding to P/E ratios of 19x, 14x, and 11x [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 康哲药业 (0867.HK) [10] Core Views - 康哲药业 plans to spin off its subsidiary 德镁医药有限公司 for independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance the growth potential of its skin health business [6] - The spin-off will allow 康哲药业 shareholders to directly hold shares in 德镁医药, benefiting from its independent valuation and market position [6][7] - The skin health business has shown significant growth, with 康哲美丽 achieving a revenue of RMB 673 million in 2024, an 18.2% increase year-on-year [8] - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of RMB 83.20 billion, RMB 94.54 billion, and RMB 110.43 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 14%, and 17% respectively [10] Financial Summary - For 2024, 康哲药业 reported a revenue of RMB 7,469 million, with a projected net profit of RMB 1,620 million [12] - The company anticipates a net profit of RMB 1,628 million in 2025, with further increases to RMB 1,895 million in 2026 and RMB 2,255 million in 2027 [12] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 72.60% in 2024 to 74.50% by 2027 [12] - The report highlights a stable return on equity (ROE) projected to rise from 9.93% in 2024 to 10.20% in 2027 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook [4] Core Views - The overall retail value for FY25Q4 decreased by 11.6% year-on-year, with a 10.4% decline in mainland China retail value. Same-store sales in mainland China dropped by 13.2%, with specific declines in jewelry and gold products [1][7] - The company has seen a narrowing decline in retail values, with notable performance from the "Chuanfu" and "Palace Museum" series, achieving sales of 4 billion HKD each for the fiscal year [1][7] - The company is focusing on channel optimization and improving profitability, with a total of 6,423 stores at the end of FY25, having closed 892 stores during the year [1][7] Financial Data and Valuation - Projected total revenue for FY2025 is 90.375 billion HKD, with a year-on-year decline of 17%. Expected net profit for FY2025 is 5.547 billion HKD, reflecting a 15% decrease [3][11] - The current market capitalization is 90 billion HKD, with a PE ratio of 15X for FY26 [4][12] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is reported at 25.6% [4] Store Performance - Same-store sales in mainland China for FY25Q4 saw a decline of 13.2%, with a notable 22.5% drop in Hong Kong and Macau [1][7] - The company has opened new fashion stores in Shanghai and Wuhan, which have performed above average in their initial months [1][7] Product Performance - Retail value for jewelry and platinum products in mainland China increased by 2.4% year-on-year, while gold product sales saw a decline of 12.3% [1][7] - The proportion of priced products in the gold category increased significantly from 9.4% in FY24Q4 to 25.6% in FY25Q4, supporting the resilience of the group's gross margin [1][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of HKD 5.68 and an industry rating of "Outperform" [1]. Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with a global package volume of 6.6 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.2%. The Southeast Asian market led this growth with a 50.0% increase, while the Chinese market saw a 26.5% increase [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued growth driven by Southeast Asia's consumer market and efficiency improvements in China, supporting the "Buy" rating [5][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit of RMB 2.728 billion in 2025, with a significant year-on-year growth of 240.1%. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 0.30, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18.7 for 2025, 11.4 for 2026, and 8.0 for 2027 [5][7]. Revenue and Growth Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 63.056 billion in 2023 to RMB 109.376 billion by 2027, with growth rates of 22% in 2023, 16% in 2024, and 13% in subsequent years [7][9]. - The EBITDA is expected to improve significantly, moving from a loss of RMB 4.107 billion in 2023 to a profit of RMB 10.434 billion by 2027 [7][9]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the operational adjustments made in response to seasonal demand, including the addition of 400 new outlets and 1,000 new vehicles in Southeast Asia, while optimizing the network in China [8]. - The Southeast Asian market's consumer activity and e-commerce penetration are expected to continue driving package volume growth, while efficiency improvements in China are anticipated to enhance profitability [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company has shown a cautious outlook on its study abroad business and future revenue projections, focusing on improving operational efficiency [1][3] - Non-selective business revenue increased by 21.2%, slightly exceeding management guidance, while total revenue for FY2025Q3 was $1.183 billion, down 2.0% year-on-year [1][8] - The company plans to maintain a 20-25% capacity expansion for FY2025, with a focus on improving outlet utilization [2][13] Revenue and Profitability - For FY2025Q3, the company reported a net profit of $113 million, adjusted down by 14.3% due to increased tax rates [1][8] - The deferred revenue at the end of February 2025 was $1.75 billion, reflecting a 15.0% year-on-year increase, although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous quarters [1][8] - The gross margin improved to 55.1%, up 8.5 percentage points, primarily due to a decrease in the proportion of low-margin e-commerce business [2][19] Business Segments Performance - K9 education new business grew by 35%, while high school training showed strong demand with a 19% increase [2][12] - The study abroad training and consulting segments grew by 7% and 21%, respectively, but are facing downward pressure due to declining consumer spending and international relations [2][12] - E-commerce and cultural tourism revenues dropped by 49% due to the divestment of "With Huixing" [2][12] Future Outlook - For FY2025Q4, the company expects non-selective revenue to grow by 10-13%, with continued pressure on study abroad demand and a high base effect in K12 education [3][21] - The company has initiated a share buyback program, having repurchased $696 million worth of shares, and plans to adopt more diversified shareholder return methods [3][21] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been lowered to $470 million, $570 million, and $690 million, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 3%, 14%, and 22% [3][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4][15] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year decline in overall retail value of 11.6% for the first quarter of 2025, with a 10.4% decline in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) and a 20.7% decline in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets. However, the decline in same-store sales has narrowed compared to the previous quarter [3][5] - The proportion of high-margin priced products has significantly increased, with the retail value of priced products in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) rising from 9.4% to 25.6% year-on-year, supporting the company's gross margin resilience [3][5] - The company continues to enhance store efficiency by closing 406 underperforming stores, with a total of 6,643 stores remaining at the end of the period. Additionally, five new image stores were opened in the Chinese market, achieving performance above the average of same-store sales [3][10] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Overall retail value decreased by 11.6% year-on-year, with a 10.4% decline in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) and a 20.7% decline in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets. Same-store sales in the Chinese market fell by 13.2%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [3][5] Product Sales Structure - The share of high-margin priced products has increased, with the retail value of priced products in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) rising from 9.4% to 25.6% year-on-year. The sales of the signature CTF Fortune and CTF Palace series reached approximately HKD 4 billion each for the fiscal year 2025 [3][5] Store Management - The company closed 406 underperforming stores, including 397 from the main CTF brand, resulting in a total of 6,643 stores at the end of the period. The company also opened five new image stores in the Chinese market, which performed better than the average same-store sales in the initial months [3][10] Financial Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast for the fiscal years 2025-2027 at HKD 52.51 billion, HKD 61.54 billion, and HKD 68.84 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.3, 15.6, and 14 times [4][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) [3][6] Core Views - The company's retail sales decline continues to narrow, with a 11.6% year-on-year decrease in RSV for FY2025Q4, showing improvement compared to FY2025Q3 [1][3] - The company is expected to experience a high double-digit revenue decline for FY2025, with a projected net profit decrease of 2.4% to HKD 6.342 billion [3][5] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - For FY2025Q4, the mainland RSV decreased by 10.4%, attributed to macroeconomic fluctuations and high gold prices affecting same-store sales, alongside a continued net store closure strategy [2][3] - In the Hong Kong and Macau regions, RSV fell by 20.7%, with same-store sales down 22.5%, primarily due to changes in consumer behavior and reduced spending by mainland tourists [3][11] Financial Projections - Revenue for FY2025 is expected to decline by 19.3%, with net profit projected at HKD 6.342 billion, reflecting a 2.4% decrease year-on-year [5][14] - The report adjusts net profit forecasts for FY2025-2027 to HKD 6.342 billion, HKD 7.249 billion, and HKD 8.217 billion respectively, with a corresponding FY2025 PE ratio of 15 times [3][5] Store Operations - The company closed 395 stores in mainland China during FY2025Q4, focusing on improving operational efficiency and profitability [11][3] - As of March 2025, Chow Tai Fook operates 6,423 stores globally, with a strategy to optimize store performance by closing underperforming locations while opening new, higher-efficiency stores [11][3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Kelun Biotech, marking its first coverage with a target price of 300 HKD [1]. Core Insights - Kelun Biotech is transitioning towards an integrated model of research and sales, with its core product, SKB264 (Lukangshatuo monoclonal antibody), having received approval for two indications in China [6][18]. - The company has a robust pipeline with over 30 products in development, including 11 ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) candidates that are in clinical stages [11][18]. - The partnership with MSD has led to 12 global Phase III studies for SKB264, enhancing its clinical and commercial potential [7][32]. Summary by Sections Major Data - The company operates in the pharmaceutical industry, with a total market capitalization of 63.32 billion CNY and a debt-to-asset ratio of 22.48% [1]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.933 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 25.5%, while net losses narrowed to 267 million CNY, a 53.5% improvement from the previous year [6][16]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 49.3% in 2023 to 80.2% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5]. Product Pipeline - The core product SKB264 has been approved for treating 3L TNBC and 3L EGFR mutation NSCLC, with additional applications pending for 2L EGFR mutation NSCLC expected to be approved in 2025 [30][29]. - The company has established a strong ADC platform and is actively pursuing global collaborations to maximize the potential of its pipeline [11][18]. Strategic Positioning - Kelun Biotech aims to become a comprehensive pharmaceutical company through innovation, global partnerships, and self-sales capabilities, with a focus on expanding its commercial team and enhancing market access [18][6]. - The management team comprises experienced professionals from both domestic and international pharmaceutical sectors, which is expected to drive the company's long-term growth [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company has achieved strong positive results in head-to-head trials of its drug, Iwosimab, against Tremelimumab for first-line treatment of advanced squamous non-small cell lung cancer (sq-NSCLC), with significant clinical benefits expected from the upcoming MRCT data readout in mid-2025 [1][2] - The company is well-positioned in the NSCLC market with comprehensive strategies and leading data, anticipating a valuation uplift from global clinical data verification [2][3] - The company is expected to experience significant revenue growth and profitability improvements due to the inclusion of its drugs in medical insurance and the upcoming clinical data readouts [3][4] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 3.39 billion, 5.48 billion, and 6.77 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be 71 million, 936 million, and 1.605 billion yuan for the same years [4][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -0.57 yuan in 2024 to 1.79 yuan in 2027, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [6][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price yet to be specified [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve over 10 billion in revenue for 2024, with a CAGR of 56% from 2022 to 2024. The adjusted profit for 2024 is projected to be 4.5 billion, reflecting a CAGR of 66% during the same period [1]. - The company has a robust IP matrix with 70 existing IPs, including popular franchises like My Little Pony and Ultraman, and has a distribution network of 217 dealers across the country [1]. - Future strategies focus on product expansion, IP diversification, enhanced production capabilities, multi-channel networks, and international expansion [1]. - The launch of the BFC creative competition has significantly increased user engagement, with submissions growing from 300 to over 30,000 pieces, indicating a thriving co-creation ecosystem [5][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the non-essential consumer goods sector, specifically in household appliances and toys [5]. - Current stock price is 122.6 HKD, with a total market capitalization of approximately 30.56 billion HKD [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.8 billion RMB, 5.3 billion RMB, and 7 billion RMB respectively, with net profits of 960 million RMB, 1.48 billion RMB, and 2.08 billion RMB [10]. Market Position - The upcoming IPO of a related entity is expected to enrich the collectible toy IP market and accelerate sector effects, potentially boosting valuations and profit expectations for industry leaders [2].