以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ，作者沈晖 远川投资评论 . 看更好的资管内容 黄金、白银度过了不平凡的两个月。 先是白银逼空，逼着交易所提高保证金，限制开仓手数。紧接着迎来沃什时刻，白银大跌30%，黄金则遭遇1983年以来最大的单日跌幅。在这场14西格玛级 别的场景里，不少主观 CTA、宏观私募大幅回撤。 其中也包括各家"中国桥水"。火富牛数据显示，申九、金和晟、国恩、尚艺等私募的部分全天候产品，在2月初那周回撤7个点以上，澜音的全天候产品回撤 了20个点。 全天候策略配置了多个低相关性的资产，如果依据风险平价逻辑，低波动率的债券占比较高。在债券表现尚可的前提下，单周出现如此巨大的回撤，大概率 超配了金银。 | 股票类 | | 债券类 | | 商品类 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证 50 | -0.93% | CFFEX2年期国债 | +0.05% | 南华商品指数 | -4.49% | | | | 期货 | | | | | 沪深 300 | -1.33% | CFFEX5年期国债 | +0.05% | 南华农产品指数 | -1.18% | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of creating a fund manager ranking list that not only reflects past performance but also provides guidance for future investment opportunities, aiming to identify managers who can outperform the market [1][11]. Group 1: Purpose of the Ranking List - The increasing number of funds (over 20,000) has made it difficult for investors to select the right ones, and many existing rankings do not provide future performance guidance [2][3]. - Many funds have managers whose performance may not be sustainable due to factors like increased fund size, managerial distractions, or even departures [3][7]. - The article argues that simply selecting past winners does not guarantee future success, and a more systematic approach is needed to identify potential outperformers [9][11]. Group 2: Methodology for Identifying Future Alpha - The methodology consists of four steps: scientific classification, establishing a fund pool, quantitative validation, and qualitative assessment [12][13]. - The first step involves categorizing funds into distinct styles to allow for meaningful comparisons, using a proprietary classification system that includes eight styles and four industries [14][15]. - The second step involves populating these categories with researched fund managers, ensuring a comprehensive pool for analysis [19][20]. - The third step focuses on quantitative metrics to filter out underperformers, while the fourth step involves qualitative assessments to finalize the rankings [23][24]. Group 3: Performance Verification - The performance of the funds listed in the rankings is evaluated against market indices, with the rankings showing a consistent ability to outperform benchmarks over time [26][28]. - From 2022 to 2024, the funds in the equity ranking outperformed the Wind Mixed Equity Index by 9.31% cumulatively [28]. - The rankings also demonstrated that selected funds maintained their performance over multiple years, indicating their sustainability [31]. Group 4: Recognition of Potential Managers - The rankings have successfully identified lesser-known but capable fund managers, leading to significant growth in their fund sizes post-inclusion in the rankings [35][38]. - For instance, a manager from Huazhong Fund saw a size increase of 56.9 billion after being included in the rankings, highlighting the recognition and validation from the market [36][39]. Group 5: Continuous Recognition - The rankings have received consistent support from investors and industry peers over the past five years, reinforcing the value of the lists [42]. - A list of fund managers who have been recognized for five consecutive years is provided, showcasing their sustained performance [44].

证券研究报告 关注自由现金流指数 ——3月基金配置展望 证券分析师 郭子睿 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520070003 任书康 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525050001 陈 瑶 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 高 越 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070014 胡心怡 一般从业资格编号：S1060124030069 研究助理 2026年3月3日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 基金配置建议：关注自由现金流指数 2 2月回顾：A股、美股市场涨跌分化；美债、国债利率下行；商品价格先下后上，原油价格上涨，黄金上涨；美元指数上行，人民币升值。海外 政策和地缘环境扰动、AI替代恐慌等因素共同作用下，权益市场涨跌分化。全球避险情绪升温，美债、国债利率下行。 3月展望：资产配置的逻辑。股债轮动模型显示，2026年1月私人部门融资增速、通胀因子下行，基本面复苏信号信号有所波动。2月市场动量因 子收正，综合基本面与动量信号的择时模型继续看多权益资产。本月基于7个情绪指标构建的A股情绪指数显示，看多未来一个月权益市场表现 的情绪指标有所回落，市场情绪指数跌出乐观区间。基于宏观综合指标的港股择时策略显示看多 ...

黄金、白银度过了不平凡的两个月。 先是白银逼空，逼着交易所提高保证金，限制开仓手数。紧接着迎来沃什时刻，白银大跌30%，黄金则遭遇1983年以来最大的单日跌幅。在这场14西格玛级 别的场景里，不少主观 CTA、宏观私募大幅回撤。 其中也包括各家"中国桥水"。火富牛数据显示，申九、金和晟、国恩、尚艺等私募的部分全天候产品，在2月初那周回撤7个点以上，澜音的全天候产品回撤 了20个点。 全天候策略配置了多个低相关性的资产，如果依据风险平价逻辑，低波动率的债券占比较高。在债券表现尚可的前提下，单周出现如此巨大的回撤，大概率 超配了金银。 | 股票类 | | 债券类 | | 商品类 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 下证 50 | -0.93% | CFFEX2年期国债 | +0.05% | 南华商品指数 | -4.49% | | | | 期货 | | | | | 沪深 300 | -1.33% | CFFEX5年期国债 | +0.05% | 南华农产品指数 | -1.18% | | | | 期货 | | | | | 中证 500% | -2.68% | CFFE ...

当国家队退场，ETF进入市 场化能力的淘汰赛 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 刘国辉 编辑 | 丁萍 头图 | AI生图 公募基金的最强增长赛道ETF，突然遭遇逆春寒。 2026年前，市场还沉浸在规模狂飙的热度之中。不仅沪深300ETF稳步增长，中证A500ETF更是在竞争 "期 权标的资格"的驱使下，规模在十多天里大涨上千亿，科创债ETF也整体大涨数百亿元。在2025年末，ETF 规模达到6.02万亿元，同比增长61.4%。 但年后，画风突变。 增持中证A500ETF的"帮忙资金"陆续撤退，汇金等国家队大资金更是巨量减持沪深300ETF、中证500ETF 等宽基。 ETF整体规模突然哑火，截至2月25日，全市场总规模为5.43万亿元，较2025年底减少了6000亿 元，降幅10%。 年前年后，可谓冰火两重天。 近十年以来，ETF规模一直呈现震荡上行态势，近一个月以来的规模大幅调整非常罕见。当然这不意味着 ETF的偃旗息鼓，更多是非常规资金的流出。 此次资金退出也属正常，毕竟现在股市表现较好，市场情绪较高，是救市资金退出的好时机，资金不可能 一直待在股市里，需要为下一次救市积蓄粮草，退出是早晚的事。现在退出还 ...

Group 1: Fund Market Tracking - As of February 28, 2026, there are 13,817 existing funds in the market, an increase of 95 from the previous month, with total net asset value reaching 37.23 trillion yuan, up by 9.7 billion yuan [3][8] - In February 2026, the returns of value, balanced, and growth fund indices were 1.00%, 1.40%, and 0.72% respectively, indicating a performance difference among various fund styles [3][13] - The proportion of mixed, bond, and stock funds is the highest in terms of quantity, while money market, bond, and stock funds dominate in terms of asset scale [8][10] Group 2: ETF Market Tracking - As of February 28, 2026, there are 1,446 ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, an increase of 16 from the previous period, with total assets under management at 5.39 trillion yuan, a decrease of 73.79 billion yuan [4][18] - The median return for stock ETFs in February was 0.70%, while cross-border ETFs had the lowest median return at -3.30% [4][23] - The internal deviation of cross-border ETFs was the highest at 3.18%, while bond ETFs had the lowest internal deviation at 0.11% [4][23] Group 3: ETF Strategy Tracking - The industry ETF rotation strategy based on main capital focused on steel, coal, and non-ferrous metals in February 2026, achieving a cumulative return of 6.17%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index, which had a return of 0.09% [5][40] - The PB-ROE framework strategy focused on non-ferrous metals, transportation, and utilities in February 2026, with a cumulative return of 4.25%, also outperforming the CSI 300 index [5][47] - Since the beginning of 2023, the main capital industry ETF rotation strategy has achieved a cumulative return of 71.82%, compared to 21.67% for the CSI 300 index, resulting in an excess return of 50.15% [5][43]

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【金工周报】（20260224-20260227） 短期模型以中性为主，后市或维持中性震荡 本周回顾 本周市场普遍上涨，上证指数单周上涨 1.98%，创业板指单周上涨 1.05%。 A 股模型： 短期：成交量模型中性。特征龙虎榜机构模型中性。特征成交量模型看空。智 能算法沪深 300 模型中性，智能算法中证 500 模型中性。 中期：涨跌停模型中性。上下行收益差模型绝大部分宽基指数看多。月历效应 模型中性。 长期：长期动量模型中性。 综合：A 股综合兵器 V3 模型看空。A 股综合国证 2000 模型看空。 港股模型： 中期：成交额倒波幅模型看空。上下行收益差模型中性，上下行收益差相似模 型看多。 本周行业指数普遍上涨，涨幅前五的行业为：钢铁、有色金属、基础化工、煤 炭、电力及公用事业，跌幅前五的行业为：传媒、消费者服务、食品饮料、非 银行金融、银行。从资金流向角度来说，有色金属、石油石化、银行、农林牧 渔主力资金净流入居前，传媒、电力设备及新能源、计算机、机械、基础化工 主力资金净流出居前。 本周股票型基金总仓位为 95.75%，相较于上周增加了 24 个 bps，混合型基 ...

开栏语：一场规模高达50万亿的存款迁徙正蓄势待发。站在财富配置的历史拐点，如何审视这波天量资金 的洪流涌向？凭借净值化运作的专业禀赋，公募行业正以"固收+"为盾、FOF为矛，站上潮头，成为金融深 化改革的时代注脚。深度探究行业变化，智通财经推出《迎接50万亿存款迁徙》专题，以专业视角观察、 见证公募的发力，为投资者绘制新的财富蓝图。 智通财经2月27日讯（记者 闫军）固收+基金在2026年增量可期，已经成为公募基金业务在ETF之外，最大的共识。 一是50万亿高息存款到期的居民财富迁徙，二是险资加大投资、银行资金转移等机构增量资金涌入，两大历史机遇之 下，公募基金行业正达成共识：3万亿或仅是起点，2026年"固收+"业务的争夺战已然全面打响。 3万亿元，固收+最新规模达历史峰值 中金公司研报数据显示，截至2025年末，全市场2292只"固收+"基金规模合计达3万亿元，超过2022年2.7万亿元的历史 峰值，创下新高。环比增长9%，较去年同期增长56%。（固收+统计口径：一级债基、二级债基、可转债、偏债混 合、权益仓位不超过4成的灵活配置基金、偏债混合型FOF）。 | 排 | | | 2021-2025年基金公司 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.39%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.06%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.04% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 2.51 trillion yuan, slightly down from the previous day [1] Sector Performance - The rare metals and rare earth sectors led the gains, with several ETFs in these categories rising over 4%, including the Rare Metals ETF from ICBC, which increased by 4.96% [2] - Other notable performers included the Rare Metals ETFs from Jiashi and Guangfa, both up by 4.68%, and the Rare Metals ETF Fund from Huafu, which rose by 4.55% [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector also saw significant increases, with the Non-Ferrous Metals ETF from Tianhong up by 4.28% and the Non-Ferrous ETF from Huashan rising by 4.17% [3] Declining Sectors - The semiconductor equipment sector experienced a notable pullback, with several ETFs in this category showing declines, including the Semiconductor Equipment ETF from Guotai, which fell by 2.16% [4] - The small-cap growth style, particularly in the ChiNext and National 2000 indices, faced pressure as funds rotated out of previously popular themes into cyclical resource sectors for safety [4] Trading Activity - The Short-term Bond ETF from Haifutong led trading activity with a turnover of 576.06 billion yuan, followed by the National Debt ETF from Huaxia at 168.25 billion yuan and the Sci-Tech Bond ETF from Nanfang at 137.24 billion yuan [5] - The turnover rates were high for bond ETFs, with the Sci-Tech Bond ETF from Nanfang achieving a turnover rate of 156.87%, indicating strong liquidity in this segment [6] ETF Issuance - Six new ETFs are set to launch, focusing on Hong Kong Stock Connect and Sci-Tech sectors, with fundraising starting on March 2, 2026 [8] - The Cash Flow ETF from Great Wall will track the National Index of Free Cash Flow, while the Engineering Machinery ETF from Penghua will follow the China Securities Engineering Machinery Theme Index [9] - Cross-border products include the Internet ETFs from ICBC and Xingye, which will track the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index [9][10]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Technology Index rebounded, reaching 5156.06 points, up 0.91% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 11.73 billion shares and a turnover of 32.5 billion HKD, indicating a moderate increase in trading activity [1] - The current PE-TTM of the Hang Seng Technology Index is 21.35 times, which is at a historical low of 26.0% over the past year, providing a significant valuation advantage compared to the STAR 50 Index (165 times) and the NASDAQ 100 Index (34 times) [1] - The market sentiment is gradually improving, as evidenced by the Hang Seng Index rising 0.96%, reflecting a recovery in overall market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The moderate rise in the Hang Seng Technology Index reflects a gradual repair of market sentiment, supported by the AI partnership emphasis from Anthropic, alleviating concerns about traditional software companies being replaced by AI [2] - The Hang Seng Technology ETF (520570) closely tracks the Hang Seng Technology Index and includes 30 large-cap, liquid tech companies listed in Hong Kong, making it a key tool for capturing trends in the Hong Kong tech sector [2] - The combination of low historical valuations, continued inflow of southbound funds, and the acceleration of AI commercialization suggests that the index may continue to experience structural upward movement in the short term, with a sustained recovery logic in the medium term [2]