生猪：一轮去产能的大周期 20260304 摘要 2026 年猪价看空逻辑：能繁母猪虽稳但非瘟影响减弱带动"开工率" 抬升，实际供给扩张将超预期，全年均价预计在 11-12 元/公斤，大概 率出现个位数猪价。 供给增速显著快于能繁：以牧原为例，2025 年出栏增速约 30% vs 能 繁增速 10%，差值达 20pct，印证效率周期（PSY 提升、换种）已取代 能繁成为供给核心变量。 证伪"2026 下半年好于上半年"：能繁调减多为集团口径且执行不一， 牧原等巨头出栏预期不减，供给压力难实质缓解，5-6 月仔猪价下行将 是去产能加速的关键节点。 竞争格局重塑：非瘟防疫门槛弱化，行业回归成本与资金的"刺刀见 红"竞争，本轮去产能将涵盖落后集团与散户，周期长度预计达 3 年， 去化程度将更彻底。 财务约束凸显：经历一年半盈利后，仍有近半数企业负债率高于 2022 年底，10 元出头的猪价已跌破牧原等头部企业成本线，行业进入深度亏 损与实质性去产能阶段。 投资策略：当前公募持仓低、估值处底部，是左侧配置窗口。建议大票 （牧原、温氏、德康）保确定性，小票（天康、巨星、神农、丽华）博 弹性。 Q&A 2026 年猪周期 ...

农林牧渔 农业行业周报 同步大市-A（维持) | 首选股票 | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 002311.SZ | 海大集团 | 买入-A | | 002299.SZ | 圣农发展 | 买入-B | | 300498.SZ | 温氏股份 | 买入-B | | 301498.SZ | 乖宝宠物 | 增持-A | | 002891.SZ | 中宠股份 | 增持-A | | 605296.SH | 神农集团 | 增持-B | | 603477.SH | 巨星农牧 | 增持-B | 【山证农林牧渔】猪价在旺季后或存回 调 压 力 - 农 业 行 业 周 报 （ 260202- 260208） 2026.2.10 【山证农林牧渔】猪价近期旺季活跃， 旺季后或仍承压-行业周报（260126- 260201） 2026.2.3 陈振志 执业登记编码：S0760522030004 邮箱：chenzhenzhi@sxzq.com 徐风 执业登记编码：S0760519110003 邮箱：xufeng@sxzq.com 2026 年 3 月 4 日 行业研究/行业周报 农林牧渔行业近一年市场表现 本周 ...

证券研究报告：农林牧渔|行业周报 发布时间：2026-03-03 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2961.5 | | 52 | 周最高 | 3158.8 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2478.53 | 行业相对指数表现 -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 2025-12 2026-02 农林牧渔 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《现代化为矛，稳定生产为盾》 - 2026.02.11 农林牧渔行业报告 （2026.2.24-2026.2.28） 猪价创新低 ⚫ 行情回顾：上涨 节后第一周，农林牧渔（申万）指数大幅涨 4.01%，在申万 31 个 一级行业中排名第 14。农业子板块中，除水产养殖外，其余子板块均 上涨。其中节前跌幅较大的种植业、种子等板块反弹较多；而养殖板 块则继 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨农产品 [Table_Title] 农业周专题系列一：生猪价格全面走弱，产能市 场化出清或正式开启 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 春节后猪价全面走低，全行业亏损时间基本已超 5 个月，养殖产能市场化出清或正式开启。我 们认为养殖产能去化是一个持续的过程，成本高的养殖主体会率先实现去化，周期下行阶段养 殖成本的竞争力也将成为企业最核心的竞争力。本轮周期或将带来养殖行业竞争格局的持续优 化，真正有成本优势以及现金流的企业有望迎来更长盈利周期。全面看好养殖板块，重点推荐 低成本以及现金流具有优势的养殖企业：温氏股份、德康农牧、神农集团，建议关注巨星农牧， 立华股份和天康生物。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490513080003 SAC：S0490519060003 SAC：S0490525080006 SFC：BQT624 陈佳 顾熀乾 卜凡星 刘文一 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 农业周专题系列一：生猪价格全面走弱，产能市 2] 场化出清或正 ...

【国金农业】再次强调牧场与生猪投资机会 随着天气逐步转暖以及南方补栏需求的提升，节后价格有望快速上涨。 中期来看行业产能去化幅度巨大，牛价有望破历史新高，看好肉奶共振的牧业大周期。 #重点推荐：优然牧业、现代牧业、中国圣牧等，以及关注受益的紫燕食品、光明肉业等。 节后散奶价的偏弱运行使得板块近期存在调整，淡季乳企本就会适当减少收奶量从而增加散奶供给，目前的价格 明显优于去年同期，而且散奶价格的下跌利好行业产能进一步去化，中期奶价反转趋势不变。 牛肉端来看：#冻品价格持续上涨，目前均价54.4元/公斤，周环比+1.7%，上涨驱动为下游补库和一致看多情绪。 牛市正月十五之前交易量较小，目前公牛犊成交价格稳定在40 【国金农业】再次强调牧场与生猪投资机会 节后散奶价的偏弱运行使得板块近期存在调整，淡季乳企本就会适当减少收奶量从而增加散奶供给，目前的价格 明显优于去年同期，而且散奶价格的下跌利好行业产能进一步去化，中期奶价反转趋势不变。 牛肉端来看：#冻品价格持续上涨，目前均价54.4元/公斤，周环比+1.7%，上涨驱动为下游补库和一致看多情绪。 牛市正月十五之前交易量较小，目前公牛犊成交价格稳定在40元/公斤左右， ...

在私募行业蓬勃发展的几十年中，公募基金经理"奔私"潮持续涌动，这背后既有个人在职业天花板的突围，亦有平台派系更迭引发的变动。从早年王亚伟、 邱国鹭开风气之先，到近年董承非、周应波等人自立门户，"公奔私"基金经理已经成为私募行业的一个重要派系，甚至不少是自身私募机构的核心人物，掌 舵着公司的整体投研方向。 私募排排网数据显示，截至2026年1月底，"公奔私"基金经理共有859位。其中，头部私募旗下的"公奔私"基金经理共有87位，占比10.13%。 接下来，笔者将划分百亿私募（规模100亿以上）、准百亿私募（规模50-100亿）两个规模组，为大家盘点头部私募（规模50亿以上）旗下"公奔私"基金经 理的代表人物。 | 8 | 崔童 | 股票 | 18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 | 邓晓峰 | 股票 | 25 | | 10 | 董承非 | 股票 | 24 | | 11 | 杜昌勇 | 股票 | 30 | | 12 | 杜骐臻 | 股票 | 14 | | 13 | 归江 | 股票 | 28 | | 14 | 韩冬 | 股票 | 18 | | 15 | 韩海峰 | 组合基金 | 12 ...

| 证券代码：603477 | 证券简称：巨星农牧 | 公告编号：2026-019 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：113648 | 债券简称：巨星转债 | | 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司 2026 年 1 月份担保情况的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： | | | 巨星农牧有限公司、德昌巨星农牧科 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 技有限公司、平塘巨星农牧有限公 司、泸县巨星农牧科技有限公司、古 | | | | 蔺巨星农牧有限公司、剑阁巨星农牧 | | | | 有限公司、乐山市巨星科技有限公 | | | | 司、屏山巨星农牧有限公司、乐山巨 | | | | 星生物科技有限公司、眉山市彭山永 | | | | 祥饲料有限责任公司、广元巨星农业 | | | 被担保人名称 | 有限公司、叙永巨星农牧有限公司、 | | | | 乐山巨星农业发展有限公司、邛崃巨 | | | | 星农牧有限公司、重庆巨星农牧有限 | | | | 公司、安徽巨星农牧有限公司、 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：博亚和讯） 春节期间生猪价格先涨后跌，节后跌破11元/kg；种鸡场挺价拉涨，肉鸡苗价格小幅上涨；鸡蛋价格跌 至2.8元/斤，淘汰鸡价格反弹；关税风波再起，节后国内豆粕稳中震荡；补库需求提振，华北玉米价格 小幅上涨；鱼粉市场高位运行；国内维生素E厂商密集涨价、赖氨酸报价坚挺……博亚和讯现将节日期 间畜牧市场、行业、企业重点信息进行汇总，供大家参考。 NEWS 市场动态 | ਸ਼ਾ 区 | 日前 | | 外三元生猪价格(元/kg) | | | 外三元.仔猪(元/kg.20kg体重) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2026年 | 2月14日 | 2月24日 | 趋势 | 2月14日 | 2月24日 | 趋势 | | 东北 | 黑龙江 | 11.51 | 10.71 | 7 | 24.55 | 24.55 | → | | | 吉林 | 11.45 | 10.60 | 7 | 24.51 | 24.51 | - | | | 辽宁 | 11.60 | 10.80 | 7 | 24.51 | 24.51 | -> ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall profitability of the pig industry is expected to decline in 2025 due to fluctuations in the market, with several listed pig companies forecasting significant drops in net profits compared to the previous year [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Muyuan Foods is expected to report a net profit of 14.7 billion to 15.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.2% to 17.79% year-on-year [1]. - Wens Foodstuff Group anticipates a net profit of 5 billion to 5.5 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 40.73% to 46.12% year-on-year [1]. - New Hope Group forecasts a loss of 1.8 billion to 1.5 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 474 million yuan in the previous year [1]. - Other companies like Tangrenshen and Juxing Agriculture are also expected to see declines in profits from pig farming in 2025 [1]. Group 2: Market Price Trends - In 2025, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) is projected to decrease by approximately 17% compared to 2024, with prices fluctuating from 15-16 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 11-12 yuan/kg in the fourth quarter [1]. - The price of live pigs showed a downward trend throughout 2025, starting from 16.1 yuan/kg in early January and reaching a low of 10.9 yuan/kg by mid-October [2]. Group 3: Supply and Production Capacity - The supply of live pigs is expected to remain ample throughout 2025, prompting authorities to emphasize the need for capacity regulation measures, including the reduction of breeding sows and control of pig weights [6]. - As of the end of Q4 2025, the number of breeding sows was reported at 39.61 million, which is 101.6% of the normal holding capacity, indicating a slight decrease in capacity [7]. - The production efficiency in the pig farming industry has significantly improved, with the number of weaned piglets per sow per year (PSY) increasing to around 26, with some leading companies nearing 29 [7]. Group 4: Future Price Outlook - Many institutions predict that the supply side may tighten in the second half of 2026, potentially leading to a cyclical rebound in pig prices [7]. - The pig industry may face pressure in the first half of 2026, but this period could also serve as a favorable window for capacity reduction [8]. - The ongoing market dynamics suggest that while there may be a rebound in prices, the extent of this rebound could be limited if capacity reduction is not thorough [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that pig prices in 2026 will be lower than market expectations, leading the industry into a significant loss phase. This will mark a major capacity reduction cycle, which is expected to result in substantial stock price increases for the sector [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Price Trends in 2025 - The average pig price for 2025 was 13.7 yuan/kg, with a downward trend observed throughout the year, particularly in the fourth quarter where prices ranged between 11.5 and 12.5 yuan/kg [7]. 2. 2026 Pig Price Forecast - The report predicts that the average pig price for 2026 will likely be below 12 yuan/kg, with the second half of the year not showing improvement over the first half [17][32]. 3. Capacity Reduction Cycle - The current capacity reduction cycle is expected to last approximately three years, marking the largest cycle since 2021. This cycle is characterized by a more equitable competition among all farming entities due to the diminished impact of African swine fever [34][38]. 4. Stock Price Increase Potential - The report suggests that the stock prices in the pig farming sector will experience significant upward movement driven by the ongoing capacity reduction. Key companies to focus on include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Tian Kang Biological [3][4]. 5. Supply Dynamics - The report emphasizes that an increase in the number of breeding sows does not necessarily correlate with an increase in supply. The actual supply has been significantly boosted by improved production efficiency and a reduction in loss rates since the decline of African swine fever [20][23]. 6. Important Time Points - Two critical time points are highlighted: post-Chinese New Year, where prices typically drop, and around May/June when piglet prices are expected to fall below cost, accelerating capacity reduction [4][44].