[Table_ReportInfo] 2026 年 02 月 24 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券 ETF 周度跟踪（2.9-2.13） 春季配置需求回归，债券 ETF 有望扩张 摘要 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：杨杰峰 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 分析师：叶昱宏 执业证号：S1250525070010 电话：18223492691 邮箱：yeyuh@swsc.com.cn 联系人：李茂怡 电话：15528164673 邮箱：limaoyi@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 S 各类债券 ETF资金净流入情况：市场情绪偏多，债券 ETF净流入金额转正。 上周利率债类 ETF、信用债类 ETF、可转债类 ETF净流入资金分别+50.98亿 元、+142.12亿元、+5.87亿元，债券 ETF市场合计净流入金额 198.96亿元。 展望后市，债券 ETF 规模在经历年初季节性资金流出后，有望随机构春季配 置需求的回归以及"两会"定调的关键政策重回扩张通道。品种上 ...

Core Insights - The market is poised for significant investment activity with over 90 billion yuan waiting to enter, driven by new ETF funds and active equity funds [1][3][4] - Two main investment themes for 2026 have been identified: technology growth, particularly in AI, and Chinese manufacturing [4][5][7] Group 1: Investment Funds - Over 90 billion yuan is ready to enter the market, primarily from newly listed stock ETFs and active equity funds that were raised before the Spring Festival [3][4] - Three new ETFs are set to launch post-holiday, expected to contribute over 1 billion yuan in direct buying power, with additional ETFs in the pipeline totaling around 3 billion yuan [3][4] - A total of 112 active equity funds are waiting to be established, collectively raising approximately 88.75 billion yuan, with 29 of these funds exceeding 1 billion yuan each [4] Group 2: Investment Themes - The first investment theme is technology growth, focusing on AI and related sectors such as robotics and smart driving, which are expected to see significant advancements [5][7] - The second theme is Chinese manufacturing, highlighting the country's strong position in sectors like new energy vehicles and electronics, which are anticipated to drive economic growth [5][7] Group 3: Market Conditions - The market has shown a relatively stable performance leading up to the Spring Festival, with the index fluctuating around 4100 points, indicating a cautious investor sentiment [8][9] - Historical data suggests a high probability of market gains in the days following the Spring Festival, with past trends showing an 70% to 80% chance of the Shanghai Composite Index rising [11] - The upcoming earnings reports from listed companies will be crucial in determining the sustainability of stock prices that have been driven up by recent fund inflows [11]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.05% to close at 4134.02 points, with a daily high of 4140.59 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.86% to close at 14283.0 points, reaching a high of 14296.48 points [1] - The ChiNext Index saw a rise of 1.32%, closing at 3328.06 points, with a peak of 3334.35 points [1] ETF Market Performance - The median return for stock ETFs was 0.56% [2] - The highest return among scale index ETFs was 2.45% for the Fortune China Science and Technology Innovation 200 ETF [2] - The highest return among industry index ETFs was 2.67% for the Bosera National Certificate Industrial Software Theme ETF [2] - The highest return among strategy index ETFs was 1.18% for the Qianhai Kaiyuan CSI 500 Equal Weight ETF [2] - The highest return among style index ETFs was 1.81% for the Wanji Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Growth ETF [2] - The highest return among theme index ETFs was 4.43% for the China Universal Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Chip Design Theme ETF [2] ETF Performance Rankings - The top three ETFs by return were: - China Universal Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Chip Design Theme ETF (4.43%) [6] - GF Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Chip Design Theme ETF (4.28%) [6] - E Fund Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (4.2%) [6] - The top three ETFs by decline were: - Guotai Junan CSI Film and Television Theme ETF (-3.72%) [6] - Yinhua CSI Film and Television Theme ETF (-3.5%) [6] - Huatai-PB CSI Animation and Game ETF (-2.31%) [6] ETF Fund Flows - The top three ETFs by fund inflow were: - Southern CSI 500 ETF (inflow of 1.124 billion) [9] - Southern CSI 1000 ETF (inflow of 819 million) [9] - Huaxia CSI 1000 ETF (inflow of 514 million) [9] - The top three ETFs by fund outflow were: - Huatai-PB CSI A500 ETF (outflow of 995 million) [11] - Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation 50 Component ETF (outflow of 842 million) [11] - Southern CSI A500 ETF (outflow of 839 million) [11] ETF Margin Trading Overview - The top three ETFs by margin buying were: - Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation 50 Component ETF (320 million) [12] - Guotai Junan CSI All-Index Securities Company ETF (263 million) [12] - E Fund ChiNext ETF (261 million) [12] - The top three ETFs by margin selling were: - Southern CSI 1000 ETF (10.2265 million) [14] - Southern CSI 500 ETF (5.3715 million) [14] - Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation 50 Component ETF (3.9157 million) [14] Institutional Insights - Open Source Securities indicated that the semiconductor chip industry is entering an upward cycle, driven by the growth of AI, smart connected vehicles, 5G, cloud computing, and IoT [15] - The global semiconductor packaging materials market is expected to exceed 26 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.6% until 2028 [15] - Donghai Securities noted that storage prices have been rising, with the memory industry achieving record output, and AI remains a key narrative for the foreseeable future [16] - There is an expectation for continued acceleration in domestic semiconductor production, suggesting a focus on leading companies in specific segments [16]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13% to close at 4128.37 points, with a daily high of 4134.34 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.02% to close at 14210.63 points, reaching a high of 14258.51 points [1] - The ChiNext Index fell by 0.37% to close at 3320.54 points, with a peak of 3348.48 points [1] ETF Market Performance 1. Stock ETF Overall Performance - The median return of stock ETFs was 0.14% [2] - The highest return among scale index ETFs was from the Ping An SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF at 1.59% [2] - The highest return among industry index ETFs was from the E Fund CSI Home Appliance Leaders ETF at 1.82% [2] - The highest return among strategy index ETFs was from the Galaxy SSE State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF at 0.77% [2] - The highest return among style index ETFs was from the China Life Anbao CSI ChiNext Mid-Cap Selected 88 ETF at 0.94% [2] - The highest return among theme index ETFs was from the Yinhua CSI Film and Television Theme ETF at 9.98% [2] 2. Stock ETF Performance Rankings - The top three stock ETFs by return were: - Yinhua CSI Film and Television Theme ETF (9.98%) - Guotai CSI Film and Television Theme ETF (9.48%) - Huaxia CSI Animation and Game ETF (5.56%) [5] 3. Stock ETF Fund Flows - The top three stock ETFs by fund inflow were: - Guotai CSI Film and Television Theme ETF (7.2 billion yuan) - Yinhua CSI Film and Television Theme ETF (6.19 billion yuan) - Huaxia CSI Robotics ETF (5.27 billion yuan) [8] - The top three stock ETFs by fund outflow were: - Southern CSI 500 ETF (14.28 billion yuan) - Huaxia CSI A500 ETF (10.02 billion yuan) - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (8.03 billion yuan) [10] 4. Stock ETF Margin Trading Overview - The top three stock ETFs by margin buying were: - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (347 million yuan) - Guotai CSI All-Index Securities Company ETF (260 million yuan) - Huabao CSI Medical ETF (257 million yuan) [11] - The top three stock ETFs by margin selling were: - Southern CSI 1000 ETF (25.61 million yuan) - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (8.87 million yuan) - Huaxia SSE 50 ETF (5.16 million yuan) [13] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities expressed optimism about the AI comic drama sector following the release of ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 video model, highlighting the low risk of replacement by large models and the high growth potential of the industry [14] - CICC projected that the total box office for this year's Spring Festival could range between 6.5 billion yuan and 8.5 billion yuan, emphasizing the significant impact of leading films on the final box office outcome [15]

临近春节档电影上映，电影板块异动频频。实际上，影视传媒板块自年初以来始终是热门投资方向。数据显示，截至2月10日，国泰影视主题ETF和银华 影视主题ETF年内涨幅均超30%，暂居ETF涨幅榜第二、第三位；广发传媒ETF、鹏华传媒ETF年内涨幅均超过25%，分列第四、第五位。另有1只文娱传 媒ETF年内涨幅超20%，暂居第九位。 双重催化 "除春节档临近外，影视股异动还有多重核心驱动因素。"排排网财富公募产品运营曾方芳向《国际金融报》记者表示：一是行业经历供给侧出清后迎来复 苏拐点，政策优化与优质内容供给增加，叠加文娱消费需求释放；二是板块估值处于历史相对低位，与改善的基本面形成背离，估值修复需求吸引资金； 三是影视IP通过游戏、衍生品等多元变现模式逐步成熟，提升长期盈利预期；四是内容出海加速，融资客持续抢筹龙头标的，资金面提供支撑。 2月10日，A股市场全天震荡，个股表现分化，沪指窄幅收涨。板块方面，文化传媒板块领涨，1只影视ETF（交易型开放式指数基金）尾盘涨停，多只影 视、游戏、传媒主题ETF涨幅位居全市场前列。截至2月10日，今年以来影视传媒相关主题ETF表现在所有ETF中领跑。 | 序号 代码 | | ...

Group 1: Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong rebound on February 4, with active performances in coal, energy, and gold sectors, as well as strong resource-related ETFs [1][3] - Multiple bond ETFs saw active trading, with short-term bond ETF Hai Futong (511360) and Yin Hua Ri Li ETF (511880) each exceeding 10 billion yuan in daily trading volume [2][7] Group 2: ETF Performance - Resource-themed ETFs led the gains, with coal ETFs rising over 9% and energy ETFs increasing by more than 5% [3][4] - The chemical ETF (159870) recorded a net inflow of 14.584 billion yuan from January 1 to February 3, ranking first in the market [2][9] Group 3: Sector Insights - The coal sector is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with prices stabilizing and rising, prompting recommendations to focus on high-dividend coal stocks [5] - The photovoltaic sector saw significant gains, driven by recent visits from Elon Musk's team to Chinese photovoltaic companies, boosting related ETFs [6] Group 4: Investment Trends - There has been a notable inflow of funds into technology and securities ETFs, despite recent market corrections in these sectors [2][10] - Over 10 billion yuan has been invested in dividend-related ETFs in the past month, with a focus on those combining Hong Kong stocks, state-owned enterprises, and dividends [11]

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices showed mixed performance in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing flat, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.74% [1] - The North China 50 Index fell by 1.19%, and the total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 16,297 billion yuan, an increase of 127 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 2,900 stocks in the market experienced declines [1] Sector Performance - Sectors that saw gains included coal mining and processing, airport and shipping, photovoltaic equipment, real estate, natural gas, port shipping, construction materials, banking, hydrogen energy, and retail [1] - Conversely, sectors that faced declines included precious metals, AI applications, computing power leasing, semiconductors, and CPO concept stocks [1] ETF Performance - Gold prices rebounded for the second consecutive day, surpassing 5,000 USD, with gold ETFs from E Fund and Bosera both rising by 3.92% [1] - International oil prices increased, leading to a 3.22% rise in the Jiasheng Oil and Gas ETF [1] - The Hong Kong dividend strategy ETFs were active, with the Bosera Hong Kong Dividend ETF rising by 1.67% [1] - However, Hong Kong stocks continued to decline, with the Hong Kong Technology ETF, Hong Kong Internet ETF from E Fund, and the Hong Kong Technology 30 ETF falling by 3.73%, 3.73%, and 3.57% respectively [1] - The New Economy ETF from Yinhua dropped by 2.83% [1]

一、交易提示 开年报捷，公募基金行业迎来里程碑时刻，数据显示，行业总规模已逼近38万亿元大关。1月以来公募调研火力全开，AI应 用、商业航天、创新药、半导体等硬科技细分获重点"围猎"，部分龙头公司单日接待机构超十批次。新发市场同步升温， 科技主题基金占据权益新品六成以上。业内人士指出，在"春季躁动"与"十四五"收官政策催化下，资金提前博弈科技赛道 盈利兑现，硬科技有望继续成为公募冲击新高的核心引擎。 2月2日,A股三大股指全天震荡下跌,截止收盘,上证综指下跌102.2点,跌幅2.48%报4015.75点;深证成指下跌381.54点,跌幅 2.69%报13824.35点;沪深300指数下跌100.36点,跌幅2.13%报4605.98点;创业板指数下跌82.24点,跌幅2.46%报3264.11点;科创 50指数下跌58.5点,跌幅3.88%报1450.90点;沪深两市成交额2.58万亿,较上一个交易日缩量2508亿。全市场超4600只个股下跌, 其中123只个股跌停。 | 基金代码 | 基金简称 | 基金经理 | 首次蔡集目标 | 投资类型 | 发行截止日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of January 31, 2026, the total number of funds in the market increased by 104 to 13,722, while the total net asset value decreased by 452.4 billion yuan to 37.22 trillion yuan. Growth - type funds outperformed value - type funds in January 2026 [3][7]. - As of January 31, 2026, there were 1,430 ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, an increase of 28 from the previous period. The total asset management scale decreased by 555.748 billion yuan to 5.46 trillion yuan, and the total share decreased by 92.652 billion shares to 3.28 trillion shares. Commodity - type ETFs had a higher overall return in January, while bond - type ETFs had the worst performance [4][18]. - The industry ETF rotation strategy based on main funds and the PB - ROE framework both achieved positive excess returns compared to the CSI 300 Index in January 2026 and since 2023 [5][40][50]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fund Market Tracking 3.1.1 Market Overview - As of January 31, 2026, the number of funds increased by 104, and the total net asset value decreased by 452.4 billion yuan. Hybrid, bond, and stock - type funds had the highest proportion in terms of quantity, while money - market, bond, and stock - type funds had the highest proportion in terms of scale [7]. - In January 2026, the number of stock - type funds increased by 49, and the scale of stock - type and bond - type funds decreased by 552.001 billion yuan and 88.818 billion yuan respectively [11]. 3.1.2 Fund Performance - From January 1 to 31, 2026, the returns of value, balanced, and growth fund indexes were 3.92%, 6.10%, and 7.02% respectively, all outperforming the CSI 300 Index. Growth - type funds outperformed value - type funds [13]. - The differences among large - cap, mid - cap, and small - cap fund indexes were small in January 2026, with mid - cap funds slightly outperforming large - cap and small - cap funds, and all outperforming the CSI 300 Index [13]. - The median return of all funds in January 2026 was 2.53%, and 94.84% of funds achieved positive returns. The top - performing fund was SDIC UBS Silver Futures A, with a gain of 61.60% in both January and year - to - date [16]. 3.2 ETF Market Tracking 3.2.1 ETF New Products - In January 2026, 33 ETFs were newly listed, including 3 science - and - technology innovation board chip ETFs and 30 other stock - type ETFs. 27 ETFs were newly established, with a total issuance scale of 16.57 billion yuan [20]. 3.2.2 ETF Product Classification Performance - Commodity - type ETFs had a median return of 18.61% in January, bond - type ETFs had the lowest median return of 0.25%, and stock - type ETFs had a median return of 4.74%, outperforming cross - border ETFs. Stock - type ETFs had the highest internal deviation in January [4][24]. - Among stock - type ETFs in January, gold - related and mining ETFs performed well, while bank - related ETFs performed poorly. The average share change of stock - type ETFs was a decrease of 108.9666 million shares, with chemical and software ETFs having significant share increases and CSI 300 and SSE 50 ETFs having significant share decreases [25]. - Among bond - type ETFs in January, the convertible bond ETF had the highest increase of 5.90%, and the science - innovation bond ETF had a decrease of 0.01%. As of January 31, 2026, the Haifutong CSI Short - Term Financing ETF had the largest scale of 70.223 billion yuan [29]. - Among cross - border ETFs in January, the China - South Korea Semiconductor ETF had the highest increase of 45.09%, and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical ETF had the highest decrease of 4.20%. The year - to - date performance was similar [31]. - Among commodity - type ETFs in January, the gold ETF had an increase of 19.11%, and the soybean meal ETF had the smallest increase of 1.69%. As of January 31, 2026, the Huaan Gold ETF had the largest scale of 93.985 billion yuan [35]. 3.3 ETF Strategy Tracking 3.3.1 Industry ETF Rotation Based on Main Funds - The strategy focused on non - ferrous metals, non - banking finance, and steel in January 2026. The cumulative return in January 2026 was 9.01%, with an excess return of 7.36% compared to the CSI 300 Index. Since 2023, the cumulative return was 61.84%, with an excess return of 40.28% compared to the CSI 300 Index [5][40][42]. 3.3.2 Industry ETF Rotation under the PB - ROE Framework - The strategy focused on communication, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and transportation in January 2026. The cumulative return in January 2026 was 2.83%, with an excess return of 1.18% compared to the CSI 300 Index. Since 2023, the cumulative return was 29.03%, with an excess return of 7.47% compared to the CSI 300 Index [5][50][51]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - For the industry preference of main funds in February 2026, the steel, coal, and non - ferrous metal industries are favored, and the corresponding ETFs are their industry ETFs. - Based on the industry PB - ROE situation and supplementary indicators, the ETF rotation strategy under the PB - ROE framework recommends paying attention to the non - ferrous metal, transportation, and public utilities industries in February, and the corresponding ETFs are their industry ETFs [6][57].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the market performance of A - shares and various ETFs on January 28, 2026, including the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, as well as the price changes and trading volumes of different types of ETFs [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27% to close at 4151.24 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09% to close at 14342.89 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.57% to close at 3323.56 points. The trading volume of A - shares in the two markets was 29919 billion yuan. The top - performing industries were non - ferrous metals (5.92%), petroleum and petrochemical (3.54%), and coal (3.42%), while the bottom - performing industries were comprehensive (-2.53%), media (-1.77%), and national defense and military industry (-1.68%) [2][6]. Stock ETF - The top - trading - volume stock ETFs included: Huatai - Peregrine CSI 300 ETF, up 0.32% with a discount rate of 0.24%; E Fund CSI 300 ETF, up 0.29% with a discount rate of 0.19%; and China AMC CSI 300 ETF, up 0.27% with a discount rate of 0.18% [3][7]. - The report also provided a table of the top ten stock ETFs by trading volume, showing details such as code, fund name, price, change rate, tracking index, and discount rate [8]. Bond ETF - The top - trading - volume bond ETFs were: Haifutong CSI Short - term Financing Bond ETF, down 0.00% with a discount rate of 0.00%; China AMC Shanghai Stock Exchange Benchmark Market - making Treasury Bond ETF, up 0.04% with a discount rate of 0.03%; and Bosera CSI Convertible and Exchangeable Bond ETF, up 0.99% with a discount rate of 1.22% [4][9]. - A table of the top five bond ETFs by trading volume was presented, including code, fund name, price, change rate, discount rate, and trading volume [10]. Gold ETF - Gold AU9999 rose 3.57% and Shanghai Gold rose 3.27%. The top - trading - volume gold ETFs were: Huaan Gold ETF, up 3.16% with a discount rate of 3.23%; E Fund Gold ETF, up 3.19% with a discount rate of 3.22%; and Bosera Gold ETF, up 3.20% with a discount rate of 3.20% [10]. - A table of the gold ETFs showed details such as code, fund name, price, change rate, trading volume, IOPV, and discount rate [11]. Commodity Futures ETF - Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals Futures ETF rose 0.74% with a discount rate of 0.98%; Jianxin Yisheng Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Energy and Chemical Futures ETF rose 1.53% with a discount rate of 1.27%; and China AMC Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF rose 0.76% with a discount rate of 3.92% [11]. - A table provided information on the commodity futures ETFs, including code, fund name, price, change rate, trading volume, IOPV, discount rate, tracking index, and tracking index change rate [12]. Cross - border ETF - The previous trading day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.83%, the Nasdaq rose 0.91%, the S&P 500 rose 0.41%, and the German DAX fell 0.15%. On this day, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.58% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 2.89%. The top - trading - volume cross - border ETFs were: E Fund CSI Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme ETF, up 0.62% with a discount rate of - 0.43%; Huatai - Peregrine Hang Seng Technology ETF, up 1.88% with a discount rate of 1.56%; and Huatai - Peregrine CSI KRX China - South Korea Semiconductor ETF, up 7.43% with a discount rate of 17.96% [14]. - A table of the top five cross - border ETFs by trading volume was shown [15]. Money ETF - The top - trading - volume money ETFs were: Yin Hua Ri Li ETF, Hua Bao Tian Yi ETF, and Money ETF Jianxin [16]. - A table presented the top three money ETFs by trading volume [17].