早盘磷化工板块延续昨日强势，消息面上，美国宣布将元素磷及草甘膦等关键除草剂纳入国防关键物 资。此前2025年11月，美国内政部及USGS已新将磷酸盐纳入关键矿产清单。此举导致全球磷供应链重 构，国际磷肥价格突破700美元/吨。 华鑫证券指出，建议重视草甘膦、化肥、进口替代、纯内需、高股息资产等方向的投资机会。首先，建 议重视有望进入景气周期的草甘膦行业。草甘膦行业目前经营困难，底部特征明显，库存持续下降，价 格近期开始上涨，在海外进入补库存周期的大背景下，行业有可能进入景气周期；第二，在行业整体机 会不多的情况下，精选竞争格局和盈利能力相对较好且具备量增的成长性个股；第三，在关税不确定性 的影响下，出口预计会受到影响，内循环需要承担更多的增长责任，化工行业中产业链在国内且主要需 求也在国内的有化学肥料行业及部分农药行业中的子产品，其中氮肥和磷肥、复合肥自给自足内循环， 需求相对刚性。 数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)前十大权重股分别为万华化学、 盐湖股份、藏格矿业、天赐材料、华鲁恒升、恒力石化、巨化股份、宝丰能源、云天化、荣盛石化，前 十大权重股合计占比44.82% ...

华鑫证券表示，截至2026-02-23收盘，布伦特原油价格为71.49美元/桶，相较上周+4.14%；WTI原油价 格为66.31美元/桶，相较上周+3.98%。预计2026 年国际油价中枢值将维持在65美金。鉴于当前国际局势 不确定性和对油价下降的预期，我们看好具有高股息特征，同时受益原材料降价的中国石化等。 截至2026年2月25日9:40，中证石化产业指数(H11057)上涨0.33%，成分股和邦生物上涨9.92%，云天化 上涨6.91%，兴发集团上涨3.42%，川发龙蟒上涨3.29%，万华化学上涨2.27%。石化ETF(159731)多空胶 着，最新报价1.06元。流动性方面，截至2月24日，石化ETF近1月日均成交2.2亿元。 资金流入方面，石化ETF最新资金净流入104.70万元。拉长时间看，近11个交易日内有8日资金净流入， 合计"吸金"1.68亿元。石化ETF近3月份额增长15.35亿份，实现显著增长，石化ETF最新规模达18.58亿 元，创近1年新高。 石化ETF(159731)，场外联接(华夏中证石化产业ETF发起式联接A：017855；华夏中证石化产业ETF发 起式联接C：017856) ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Xin Yang Feng, Sen Qi Lin, Rui Feng New Material, Sinopec, Ju Hua Co., Yang Nong Chemical, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Tong Kun Co., and Dao Tong Technology [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases for industrial-grade lithium carbonate (up 7.58%) and battery-grade lithium carbonate (up 7.46%), while liquid chlorine and nitric acid experienced substantial declines [4][18]. - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in areas such as import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend stocks, particularly in light of fluctuating international oil prices [6][18]. - The chemical industry is currently facing a mixed performance, with some sectors showing resilience while others struggle due to overcapacity and weak demand [21]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price trends in key chemical products, noting both significant increases and decreases in various sectors [4][18]. - It recommends focusing on sectors like glyphosate, fertilizers, and companies with strong domestic demand and import substitution potential [21]. Price Trends - Key products that saw price increases include industrial-grade lithium carbonate, battery-grade lithium carbonate, PVC, and ammonium chloride, while products like liquid chlorine and nitric acid saw significant price drops [4][5][18]. - The report indicates that the overall chemical industry remains weak, with performance varying across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [21]. Market Outlook - The report predicts that international oil prices will stabilize around $65 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of price declines [6][18]. - It highlights the potential for certain sectors, such as the lubricants and chemical fertilizers, to benefit from domestic demand and import substitution strategies [21].

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年2月24日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格较春节前大幅下跌165元/吨。供应端，春节前，PVC开工率环比增加0.83 个百分点至80.09%，PVC开工率继续小幅增加，处于近年同期中性水平。春节期间，PVC下游绝大多数 停工。出口方面，春节前，价格上涨后，国内出口签单环比回落，但之前的抢出口使得企业销售压 力不大。中国台湾台塑PVC出口3月份船货离岸价环比2月上调40美元/吨。社会库存在春节假期期间 增加较多，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开 工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品 房周度成交面积环比回落，春节期间，商品房成交低迷，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合毛利承压， 部分生产企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，期货仓单仍处高位。2月是国内PVC传统需求淡 季，春节后现货成交清淡，社会库存继续增加。不过生态环境部表示将聚焦无汞催化剂研发攻关等 关键环节，加快推动聚氯乙烯行业无汞化转型，加上抢出口节后有望延续，市场对于春节后仍有政 策及检修 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ningdong National Energy and Chemical Base is experiencing significant industrial growth, exemplified by Baofeng Energy's projected net profit of 11 to 12 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of over 70% compared to previous years [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Baofeng Energy is expected to achieve a net profit of 110 to 120 billion yuan by 2025, up from 46 billion yuan in 2020, showcasing its strong resilience and leadership in the industry [1][2]. - The industrial output value of the Ningdong base is projected to exceed 200 billion yuan in 2024, placing it among the top ten chemical parks in China [2][9]. Group 2: Technological Innovation and Transformation - Baofeng Energy's growth is attributed to continuous technological innovation and a green transformation, including the establishment of a leading integrated hydrogen production project and the adoption of AI and IoT technologies [2][8]. - The base has achieved over 98% localization of key equipment through collaboration with national teams, enhancing its production capabilities [2][8]. Group 3: Industrial Ecosystem Development - The Ningdong base is evolving from a single enterprise model to a diversified industrial cluster, with key players like Baofeng Energy, Guoneng Ningmei, and Taihe New Materials driving innovation [2][9]. - The establishment of a complete industrial system from basic chemical raw materials to finished products has led to the creation of specialized clusters such as the "China Spandex Valley" [3][10]. Group 4: Innovation Ecosystem and Support - The Ningdong base has developed a high-level platform and innovation mechanisms to facilitate the integration of large and small enterprises, significantly reducing project entry times and attracting substantial social investment [4][11]. - Initiatives such as the AI intelligent coal blending system have improved efficiency and reduced costs for participating companies, promoting collaborative innovation [4][11]. Group 5: Future Development Strategies - The Ningdong base recognizes existing challenges in its industrial chain and aims to address these through targeted招商 and cultivation strategies during the 14th Five-Year Plan [5][12]. - Future plans include focusing on high-end polyethylene, electronic-grade chemicals, and high-performance fibers, while enhancing the resilience of the industrial chain through a "four-chain integration" approach [6][12].

2月24日马年首个交易日，A股化工板块盘中持续走高，磷化工、农药等细分方向表现强势，多只个股涨停，六国化工、云图股份、云天化、湖北 宜化午后涨停，美邦股份、赤天化、金正大此前封板，司尔特、新洋丰、扬农化工等多股涨幅居前。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | V | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300505 | 川金诺 | 31.08 c | 13.60% | | 600470 | 六国化工 | 7.13 c | 10.03% | | 600096 | 云天化 | 39.36 c | 10.01% | | 002539 | 云图控股 | 16.16 c | 10.01% | | 605033 | 美邦股份 | 31.54 c | 10.01% | | 002312 | 川发龙蟒 | 12.76 c | 10.00% | | 000422 | 湖北直化 | 16.95 c | 9.99% | | 002470 | 金正大 | 2.33 c | 9.91% | | 301665 | 泰禾股份 | 32.07 c | 9.04% | | 600389 | 江川股份 | 27.52 c | 8 ...

化学制品 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 Email：sunying@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524050001 Email：zhangkun06@zts.com.cn 联系人：郝文阳 Email：haowy@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 3,130.47 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 3,130.47 | | 市价(元) | 84.96 | | 市值(百万元) | 265,964.87 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 265,964.87 | 股价与行业-市场走势对比 1、《Q3 利润同比正增，持续看好周 期龙头》2025-10-26 2、《费用下降&产销量增，Q2 业绩 表现超预期》2025-08-12 长期发展》2025-07-26 万华化学（600309.SH） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2026 年 02 月 24 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | ...

当日主力资金净流入2297.70万元，占总成交额16%。机构持仓方面，永赢基金、长城基金等重仓持 有，其中永赢中证500指数增强基金单日浮盈超4万元。融资余额稳定，近5日资金净流入3092.97万元。 股价情况 股价突破20日均线（37.08元），盘中最高触及37.35元，接近布林带上轨压力位40.04元。KDJ指标中J线 升至88.96，显示短期动能增强。 未来发展 经济观察网 昊华科技（600378.SH）在2026年2月24日逆势上涨，收盘报37.13元，单日涨幅4.44%，成 交额2.75亿元。此次上涨主要受以下因素驱动： 行业板块情况 当日基础化工板块指数上涨3.45%，化学制品板块上涨2.28%。券商中国报道指出，美国将磷和草甘膦 列入战略资源，印度尿素招标价格创阶段性新高（东海岸CFR 512美元/吨），海外供给扰动加剧，推动 化工品价格预期上行。机构分析认为，2026年海外产能加速退出，国内低效产能持续清退，行业供需格 局改善，龙头公司如万华化学、华鲁恒升年内涨幅均超10%。 业绩经营情况 公司2025年业绩预告显示，归母净利润预计13.8亿–14.8亿元，同比增长30.96%–40.44%； ...

化学制品 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 Email：sunying@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524050001 1、《Q3 利润同比正增，持续看好周 期龙头》2025-10-26 2、《费用下降&产销量增，Q2 业绩 表现超预期》2025-08-12 长期发展》2025-07-26 万华化学（600309.SH） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2026 年 02 月 24 日 Email：zhangkun06@zts.com.cn 联系人：郝文阳 Email：haowy@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 3,130.47 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 3,130.47 | | 市价(元) | 84.96 | | 市值(百万元) | 265,964.87 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 265,964.87 | 股价与行业-市场走势对比 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | ...

Group 1 - Chemical ETF rose by 3.53%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.66 percentage points [1] - Elemental phosphorus and glyphosate were designated as critical defense materials by the U.S. government, which may benefit China's phosphate fertilizer and phosphate trade [1] - The U.S. EPA approved three glyphosate products for use on cotton and soybeans for two planting seasons [1] - The chemical fiber sector is entering a traditional peak season, with inventory depletion during the Spring Festival and rising prices for polyester and viscose fibers [1] - Tensions in the Middle East have led to an increase in oil prices, with ICE Brent crude at $71.54 per barrel, up 0.60% [1] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to promote carbon peaking, with restrictions on high-energy-consuming products expected to be implemented, indicating a turning point for the chemical industry [2] - Real estate policies are showing signs of stabilization in first-tier cities, suggesting a gradual recovery in the industry, with a focus on investment opportunities in the chemical-real estate chain [2] - The chemical industry index (000813) rose by 3.39%, with significant gains in stocks such as Andong Biological and Xingfa Group, both up over 10% [2] - The chemical ETF closely tracks the chemical industry index, which consists of large, liquid listed companies to reflect the overall performance of the sector [2] Group 3 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the chemical industry index (000813) accounted for 44.82% of the index, including companies like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Industry [3]