【申万机械】爱德万、长川业绩超预期，再次提示ATE重大产业机遇！ 1）爱德万测试：Q3业绩超预期，上调全年业绩指引 #SoC增速最快，中国市场（含台湾）占61.58%。 25Q3营收2738亿JPY（约124.39亿RMB），同比增长25.51%，净利润787亿JPY（35.76亿RMB），同比增长 51.76%；1）产品结构看：SoC收入1652亿JPY，同比增加522亿JPY（yoy+46 【申万机械】爱德万、长川业绩超预期，再次提示ATE重大产业机遇！ 1）爱德万测试：Q3业绩超预期，上调全年业绩指引 3）重视ATE设备产业趋势，当前仍处在上半场。 #上调25年业绩指引，看好26年SoC继续高增。 公司上调全年收入指引至10700亿JPY（原预期9500亿JPY），上修幅度12.63%；由于AI芯片复杂度变高，测试时 长倍数增加，公司预计26年SoC市场85-95亿美金，相较24年41亿美金实现两年翻倍增长； 爱德万业绩已经表明AI带来的测试机需求具备高弹性，全球AI正处在爆发早期阶段，爱德万与泰瑞达估值从20X提 升至70-80X具备底层产业逻辑；国内SoC测试设备市占率不足5%，未来受益于AI行业β ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electronic industry [5] Core Insights - The ongoing shortage of niche storage is expected to continue, with AI demand opening up incremental growth opportunities [2][8] - AI demand is anticipated to drive the need for niche storage, particularly in applications such as automotive, industrial, and security [7] - Domestic manufacturers are positioned competitively in the niche storage market and are likely to benefit from the supply constraints caused by international suppliers exiting this segment [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Key investment targets include domestic storage chip design companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation, Puran, Jucheng, Dongxin, Beijing Junzheng, and Hengshuo [3][8] - Other relevant companies include domestic storage module manufacturers like Jiangbolong, Demingli, and Baiwei Storage, as well as semiconductor equipment firms such as Zhongwei, Jingzhida, and Beifang Huachuang [3][8] - Companies benefiting from storage technology iterations include Lanke Technology, Lianyun Technology, and Aojie Technology [3][8] Market Dynamics - The supply of niche storage products is being significantly reduced as major international suppliers focus on mainstream storage products, leading to a substantial contraction in supply [7] - For instance, the global MLC NAND Flash capacity is projected to decrease by 41.7% in 2026 due to supply shrinkage, which is expected to drive prices significantly higher [7] - Domestic firms are gaining market share in niche storage, with Zhaoyi Innovation holding approximately 18.5% of the NOR Flash market in 2024, ranking second globally [7]

Summary of the Conference Call for Jingzhida (精智达) Company Overview - **Company**: Jingzhida (精智达) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Testing Equipment Key Points and Arguments Product Development and Market Position - Jingzhida has achieved full category coverage in DM or Memory testing machines, with new products accounting for over 20% of total sales, indicating strong market penetration [2][5] - The company has received repeat orders for high-speed FPGA testing machines, validating its capabilities in high-speed testing [2][5] - Aging testing machines and low-speed FPC testing machines have reached historical highs in production, reinforcing the company's position as a core supplier in a mature supply chain [2][5] Major Orders and Financial Outlook - Recently signed a significant order exceeding 1.3 billion RMB, which not only marks a financial milestone but also validates the company's technological roadmap and market position [3][17] - The company plans to complete the delivery of this major order within 2026, aligning with customer production line schedules [4][17] - Expected overall gross margin for 2026 is projected to be between 45% and 50%, with new orders potentially exceeding a 50% margin [9][10] Future Product Launches and R&D - The company is advancing the development of next-generation high-speed products, with the first batch of 18G high-speed FT engineering samples delivered to customers by the end of 2025 [6][8] - Plans to accelerate the launch of testing equipment for computing power chips and AI chips in 2026, while exploring comprehensive testing solutions with key domestic clients [6][20] Industry Trends and Challenges - The semiconductor industry is experiencing high demand, with clear expansion plans and significant capacity gaps expected in the coming years [12][14] - The company is actively expanding production capacity to meet strategic customer delivery requirements and to ensure domestic testing capabilities [7][20] - There is a notable increase in demand for high-speed testing, precision temperature control testing, and complex structure testing, necessitating a rapid response to customer needs [15][20] Pricing and Market Dynamics - The price of high-speed or ultra-high-speed HBM testing equipment has significantly increased, with prices being 2-3 times higher than ordinary DRAM products due to increased technical complexity [16][18] - The market for testing machines is not only growing in quantity but also in the value per unit, driven by advancements in technology and increased testing requirements [16][19] Strategic Vision - The company aims to leverage its core technologies and market position to achieve breakthroughs and scale in 2026, with high-end, new, and high-speed products expected to enter mass production [8][20] - Jingzhida is committed to enhancing its core position in the testing machine sector and supporting clients in the storage field (Memory, DRAM, NAND) and computing power chips [17][20]

存储涨价+IPO、成熟制程价格稳中有升、国产替代继续加速等持续催化，#看到未来五年国内市场继续翻倍增 长、国产化率翻倍增长，国产设备公司打开3~4倍新的成长空间。 （富创精密）【ZX电子】上周开始设备板块情绪跟随大盘有波动，有业绩的标的涨幅更好，我们认为短期情绪波 动不改长期趋势，我们继续梳理设备板块接下来的思路~ 短期市场传言DRAM上市推迟，具体时间我们不评价，但是不论如何上半年能够完成上市，NAND亦是如此。 设备板块很容易在短时间内急涨急跌，市场情绪也随之剧烈变化，但是在两存上市及扩产加速的当下，设备依然 是接下来科技板块的主线之一。 （富创精密）【ZX电子】上周开始设备板块情绪跟随大盘有波动，有业绩的标的涨幅更好，我们认为短期情绪波 动不改长期趋势，我们继续梳理设备板块接下来的思路~ 短期市场传言DRAM上市推迟，具体时间我们不评价，但是不论如何上半年能够完成上市，NAND亦是如此。 设备板块很容易在短时间内急涨急跌，市场情绪也随之剧烈变化，但是在两存上市及扩产加速的当下，设备依然 是接下来科技板块的主线之一。 #各家2030年前后收入在25年基础上基本都是翻倍甚至翻几倍增长，因此设备板块属于确定性 ...

Company and Industry Summary Company: HBMCP (High Bandwidth Memory Test Machine) Key Points - HBMCP has successfully secured orders, achieving breakthroughs in various product categories including CP (test machines), FT (final testing), aging tests, and probe cards [1] - Revenue from related businesses reached 1.3 billion, with FT high-speed products and HBMCP accounting for 20% of this revenue; when including FT low-speed products, the combined share of FT and CP products exceeds 40% [1] - New orders for 2026 are projected to at least double compared to 2025, with 2025 new orders estimated at approximately 1.6 billion, setting a minimum target of 3.2 billion for 2026 [1] - The overall gross margin is expected to maintain between 45% and 50%, with the gross margin for orders in the second half of the year exceeding 50%, primarily due to an increased share of FT and CP products [1] - Significant progress is anticipated for GPU test machines in 2026 [1] Industry Insights - The company plans to allocate part of its production capacity to meet the demands of clients beyond Changxin Storage, including Yangtze Memory, customers in Fujian, and H clients, thereby expanding its customer base [2] - The market forecast for new orders in 2026 is maintained at 3.5 billion, corresponding to a net profit of 875 million, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 40, leading to a market capitalization estimate of 35 billion [2] - The GPU test machine is set to launch a demo model in June this year, with a strategic partnership established with Cambricon; the domestic GPU test machine market is approximately 8 billion, with a target market share of 30% for the company, translating to a net profit of 600 million, and a market capitalization estimate of 24 billion based on a 40 PE ratio [2]

Company and Industry Summary Company: DW Electronics (精智达) Key Points 1. **Order Acquisition and Product Range** DW Electronics has successfully secured orders for HBMCP, achieving a breakthrough in the full range of CP FT aging probe cards [1] 2. **Revenue Breakdown** In a revenue of 1.3 billion, FT high-speed and HBMCP account for 20%, and when including FT low-speed, FTCP's share exceeds 40% [1] 3. **Order Growth** New orders signed in 2026 are expected to at least double compared to 2025, with 2025 estimated at around 1.6 billion and 2026 projected to be at least 3.2 billion [1] 4. **Gross Margin Expectations** The overall gross margin for the year is projected to be between 45% and 50%, with the gross margin for orders in the second half of the year expected to exceed 50% due to an increased share of FTCP [1] 5. **GPU Testing Machine Progress** Significant advancements in GPU testing machines are anticipated in 2026 [1] 6. **Capacity Allocation** The company plans to allocate part of its production capacity to meet the demands of clients beyond Changxin, including Changcun, Fujian clients, and others, indicating a diversification of its customer base [1] 7. **Market Size and Profit Projections** The forecast for new orders in 2026 is maintained at 3.5 billion, corresponding to a profit of 875 million, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 40 times, leading to a market valuation of 35 billion [1] Industry Insights 1. **Domestic Market Potential** The domestic market for GPU testing machines is valued at 8 billion, with DW Electronics expected to capture a 30% market share, translating to a profit of 600 million, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 40 times, resulting in a market valuation of 24 billion [2]

写在文章前的声明：在本文之前的说明：本文中所列的投资信息，只是一个对基金资产净值进行排行的客观描述，并无主观倾向性，也不是投资建议，纯属 娱乐性质。 一顿操作猛如虎，基金净值已更新，谁是基金中的王者，谁又垫底，请看数据： | 基金简称 PK | | | 最新净体 !! = 2 N = 2 x = 2 = | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 方正富邦核 ... C | 1.4854 | 6.62% | 8 | | | 018816 | 2026-1-27 | | | | 2 | 方正富邦核...A | 1.5055 | 6.61% | 8 | | | 018815 | 2026-1-27 | | | | 3 | 广发远见智 ... A | 1.3800 | 5.68% | 7 | | | 016873 | 2026-1-27 | | | | 4 | 广发远见智 ... C | 1.3586 | 5.68% | 7 | | | 016874 | 2026-1-27 | | | | 5 | 华夏磐晟混...F) | 2.2141 | 5.19% | 8 | | | 1 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that advanced packaging is crucial for enhancing chip performance and reliability, especially in the context of the AI wave driving demand for higher integration and performance in semiconductors [8][21][25] - The semiconductor packaging and testing industry in China is expected to grow significantly, with the market size projected to reach 438.98 billion yuan by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8% from 2024 to 2029 [28][29] - Advanced packaging is anticipated to account for 50% of the semiconductor packaging market by 2029, with a CAGR of 10.6%, outpacing traditional packaging growth [28][29] Group 2 - The report highlights the rise of independent third-party testing services in the semiconductor industry, driven by the increasing number of IC design companies and the growing demand for testing services [42][43] - The competitive landscape for wafer testing is relatively concentrated due to high technical and investment barriers, with fewer participants compared to finished chip testing [42][43] - The report notes that independent third-party testing firms often collaborate with integrated packaging and testing companies, outsourcing wafer testing while also competing in finished chip testing [42][43]

Group 1: Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively rose today, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18% closing at 4139.90 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.09% at 14329.91 points, and the ChiNext Index up 0.71% at 3342.60 points [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 29,215 billion yuan, a decrease of 3,592 billion yuan from the previous day, with over 1,900 stocks in the three markets showing gains [2] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry chain showed active performance today, particularly in the storage chip and semiconductor equipment sectors, with stocks like Dongxin Co. hitting the daily limit and others like Purun Co. and Jingzhida rising significantly [4] - Analysts from multiple brokerage firms noted that Samsung Electronics plans to raise NAND flash supply prices by over 100% in Q1 2026, exceeding market expectations [6] - Micron Technology announced a $24 billion investment in a NAND flash factory in Singapore over the next decade, with production expected to start in the second half of 2028, creating 3,000 jobs [7] - The storage product prices are expected to continue rising in Q1 and Q2 of 2026, driven by strong AI demand and supply constraints, benefiting various segments of the domestic storage industry [7] Group 3: Precious Metals - The precious metals sector continued to rise, with Zijin Mining's stock price increasing significantly after announcing an acquisition of Allied Gold Corporation for approximately 5.5 billion Canadian dollars (about 28 billion yuan) [9][13] - Zijin Mining's acquisition includes core assets such as the Sadiola gold mine and the Kurmuk gold mine, with expected gold production increasing significantly by 2029 [13] - Morgan Stanley maintained a target price of 48 HKD for Zijin Mining's H-shares and 45 RMB for its A-shares, rating it as "overweight" due to positive production growth outlooks [14] Group 4: Influenza Sector - The influenza sector was active following a recent surge, with companies involved in vaccines, testing reagents, and raw materials benefiting from increased attention [19] - The stock of Wangshan Wangshui surged over 10% today, reflecting the market's response to the recent outbreak of the Nipah virus in India, which has led to heightened demand for related medical products [21]

（来源：中国商报） 转自：中国商报 中国商报（记者 王彤旭）1月27日，A股三大指数集体上涨。截至收盘，沪指涨0.18%，深成指涨0.09%，创业板指涨0.71%，北证50指数跌0.05%。沪深京 三市成交29215亿元，较上一日缩量3592亿元，三市超1900只个股飘红。在板块题材上，贵金属、半导体、培育钻石等板块涨幅居前。 在消息面上，今天依旧有好消息。 据人力资源和社会保障部消息，我国将实施稳岗扩容提质行动，推出重点行业就业支持举措，出台应对人工智能影响促就业文件。强化重点群体就业支 持，印发高校毕业生等青年就业文件，出台统筹城乡就业体系意见，建立常态化防止返贫致贫就业帮扶机制。 近期，A股市场的风格变化很快。资金在科技、周期和红利板块中，在大小盘之间来回流转。 分析人士认为，市场近期依然存在三大变数。一是在节前最后三周的交易中，去杠杆的行为和程度到底会在多大程度上影响多头；二是此前A50经历了9 连阴，可以说大盘权重股调整比较充分，后续风格是否会让主题炒作难以为继并影响到市场的赚钱效应；三是进入业绩披露和预披露期之后，1月份最后 几个交易日，一些"业绩雷"也可能逐步"引爆"。 华西证券认为，在中长期视 ...