证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 16 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 05 月 16 日 ： 张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ： 021-80106048 ： zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 ❑ 资金：周四沪深两市总成交额为 11524 亿元，南下资金净流出 2,21 亿港元。 浙商早报 1 市场总览 1、大势：周四上证指数下跌 0.7%，沪深 300 下跌 0.9%，科创 50 下跌 1.3%，中证 1000 下跌 1.7%，创 业板指下跌 1.9%，恒生指数下跌 0.8%。 重要观点 ❑ 【浙商宏观 李超/费瑾】宏观专题研究：4 月金融数据：金融数据回落中的结构性亮点——20250514 重要点评 ❑ 【浙商大制造中观策略 邱世梁/王华君/张菁】机械设备 行业深度：深海科技：政策东风起，聚焦深海装备、深 海信息技术、深海探测等——20250514 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：周四上证指数下跌 0.7%，沪深 300 下跌 0.9%，科创 50 下跌 1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of developing deep-sea technology as a new engine for economic growth, with the deep-sea technology-related industries expected to exceed 3.25 trillion yuan by 2025, accounting for over 25% of the marine economy [5][14] - The report highlights the strategic shift of China from a "maritime power" to a "maritime strong power," with deep-sea technology becoming a key focus of national strategy [12][14] - The report identifies four major directions for deep-sea technology: marine resource development, marine technology, marine environmental protection, and marine rights protection [19][57] Summary by Sections What is Deep-Sea Technology? - Deep-sea technology refers to advanced technologies and related disciplines used for exploring, developing, and utilizing deep-sea resources and studying the deep-sea environment [4] Why Develop Deep-Sea Technology? - It is crucial for economic structural transformation and national security, with deep-sea technology expected to play a significant role in safeguarding national interests and resource rights [5] Directions of Deep-Sea Technology - Key areas include marine resource development (renewable energy, deep-sea mining, fisheries, oil and gas), marine technology (carriers, sensors, special materials), environmental protection (green ships, island engineering), and rights protection (polar engineering, integrated information networks) [6][19] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with production material or new infrastructure attributes, specifically deep-sea equipment, deep-sea information technology, deep-sea exploration, and deep-sea special materials [7][59] - Recommended companies include: - Deep-sea equipment: Yaxing Anchor Chain, Zhenhua Heavy Industries, China Shipbuilding, China Power, China Shipbuilding Defense [7][59] - Deep-sea information technology: Zhongtian Technology, Oriental Cable [9][59] - Deep-sea exploration: China Marine Defense, Weiguang Co., Ltd. [9][59] - Deep-sea materials: BaoTi Co., Ltd., Western Materials, Western Superconducting [9][59]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the renewable energy sector, particularly highlighting opportunities in solar and wind energy [4][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the downstream demand for renewable energy is expected to increase, leading to a potential recovery in the pricing structure of the industry [2]. - The solar industry is experiencing a price correction after a surge in demand, with key components like silicon materials and modules seeing price adjustments, yet maintaining a buffer above the Q1 lows [4]. - The wind energy sector is projected to benefit from accelerated offshore wind project developments in 2025, supported by favorable policies [4]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - From April 28 to May 9, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.42%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.12% and 3.32%, respectively. The Shenwan Electric Power Equipment Index outperformed, rising by 3.46% [12]. - Sub-sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, wind power equipment, batteries, and grid equipment saw respective increases of 2.8%, 3.85%, 4.39%, and 1.73% [12][14]. Key Sector Tracking - The report tracks significant corporate activities, including a major asset restructuring by Foshan Fulu Technology, involving a total transaction value of 5.08 billion yuan [3][25]. - The report also highlights the performance of leading companies in the solar and wind sectors, suggesting a focus on firms like GCL-Poly Energy, JinkoSolar, and Goldwind Technology [4]. Investment Recommendations - For the solar sector, the report suggests focusing on companies that have optimized their supply chains and upgraded capacities, such as GCL-Poly Energy and JinkoSolar [4]. - In the wind sector, it recommends investing in companies like Goldwind Technology and Mingyang Smart Energy, as 2025 is expected to be a significant year for offshore wind projects [4]. - The report also notes the rapid growth of the electric vehicle supply chain in China, with a recommendation to prioritize companies benefiting from low raw material costs, such as CATL and BYD [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the power transmission and transformation equipment industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [28][29]. Core Insights - The total winning bid amount for the 2025 National Grid's 23rd batch procurement of power transmission and transformation equipment is 17.636 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.7% compared to the same batch in 2024 [5][6]. - Key equipment categories show varied performance: - Switchgear: 1.704 billion yuan, up 24.2% year-on-year - Power transformers: 4.129 billion yuan, down 2.19% year-on-year - Power cables: 1.647 billion yuan, up 2.26% year-on-year - Relay protection and substation computer monitoring systems: 1.520 billion yuan, up 45.97% year-on-year [6][7]. Summary by Category Winning Bid Overview - The total winning bid amount for the 2025 procurement is 17.636 billion yuan, with a breakdown as follows: - Combination electrical devices: 4.133 billion yuan, up 33.6% year-on-year - Transformers: 4.129 billion yuan, down 2.19% year-on-year - Switchgear: 1.704 billion yuan, up 24.2% year-on-year - Power cables: 1.647 billion yuan, up 2.26% year-on-year - Relay protection and monitoring systems: 1.520 billion yuan, up 45.97% year-on-year [6][7][8]. Key Equipment Winning Shares - Combination electrical devices: - Total winning amount: 4.133 billion yuan - Leading companies: Pinggao Electric (32.7%), Siyi Electric (18.6%), China West Electric (15.7%) [8][9]. - Transformers: - Total winning amount: 4.129 billion yuan - Leading companies: TBEA (23.8%), Shandong Electric (18.1%), Baobian Electric (9.8%) [8][9]. - Power cables: - Total winning amount: 1.647 billion yuan - Leading companies: Hengtong Optic-Electric (13.3%), TBEA (8.8%), Zhongtian Technology (7.6%) [9][10]. - Switchgear: - Total winning amount: 1.704 billion yuan - Leading companies: Pinggao Electric (8.8%), Shandong Taikai (7.9%), Teradyne (5.7%) [9][10]. - Relay protection and monitoring systems: - Total winning amount: 1.520 billion yuan - Leading companies: Guodian NARI (34.8%), Sifang Co. (15.4%), Changyuan Group (12.7%) [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the renewable energy sector, particularly highlighting the solar and wind energy segments as having strong growth potential [4][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the downstream demand for renewable energy is expected to increase, leading to a potential recovery in the pricing structure of the industry [2]. - It notes that the solar industry is currently experiencing a price correction after a surge in demand, with key components like silicon materials and modules seeing price adjustments [4]. - The wind energy sector is projected to benefit from significant policy support and increased project bidding, particularly in offshore wind projects [4]. Weekly Market Review - From April 28 to May 9, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.42%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.12% and 3.32%, respectively. The Shenwan Electric Power Equipment Index outperformed with a rise of 3.46% [12]. - Sub-sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, wind power equipment, batteries, and grid equipment saw respective increases of 2.8%, 3.85%, 4.39%, and 1.73% [12][14]. Key Sector Tracking - The report highlights specific companies to watch in the solar sector, including GCL-Poly Energy, JinkoSolar, and Sungrow Power Supply, which are expected to navigate through the current market fluctuations effectively [4]. - In the wind energy sector, companies like Goldwind Technology and Mingyang Smart Energy are recommended due to their strong market positions and growth prospects [4]. Price Data in the Industry - The report provides insights into the pricing trends of key components in the solar supply chain, indicating a downward trend in silicon prices, with current prices ranging from 34 to 36 CNY/kg, reflecting an over 8% decrease compared to the previous month [28]. - The price of N-type silicon wafers has also seen a significant drop, with the average transaction price falling below 1 CNY per piece, indicating a challenging market environment for smaller manufacturers [29][34]. Company Announcements - Notable announcements include the acquisition of 100% of Jinli Co. by Foshan Fulu Technology for a total consideration of 5.08 billion CNY, which is expected to enhance its market position [3][25]. - SAIC Motor reported a significant increase in electric vehicle sales, with a 71.7% year-on-year growth in April 2025, indicating strong demand in the electric vehicle market [26].

Core Insights - The report from Tianfeng Securities emphasizes the importance of investing in "AI + overseas expansion + satellites" as core opportunities in the medium to long term [1][5] - The communication equipment sector is experiencing a recovery, with revenue growth expected to continue driven by AI computing power [2][4] Financial Summary and Outlook - The overall revenue for the communication equipment sector is projected to grow by 2.9% and 12.9% year-on-year in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 respectively, indicating a recovery since Q4 2023 [2] - Net profit for the sector is expected to decline by 141% in Q4 2024 but then grow by 24% in Q1 2025, reflecting a transition in industry dynamics [2] Key Industry Segments to Watch 1. **Optical Devices**: Revenue growth of 52.6% and 67.5% year-on-year in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, with net profit growth of 124.4% and 114.3% respectively, indicating strong demand driven by AI [3] 2. **Internet of Things (IoT)**: Positive revenue and profit growth in Q1 2025, confirming the ongoing recovery trend in the industry [3] 3. **Submarine and Optical Cables**: Revenue and net profit growth of 12% and 46.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, supported by demand from high-voltage and smart grid projects [3] 4. **IDC & CDN**: Traditional IDC faces challenges, but AIDC is expected to see high growth due to AI applications [4] 5. **Telecom Operators**: Revenue growth of 6.4% and 0.8% year-on-year in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, indicating stable growth [4] 6. **Main Equipment**: Revenue and net profit are under pressure, but recovery is anticipated as AI demand increases [4] 7. **Satellite Industry**: Net profit has been declining but shows signs of recovery, with expectations for normalization post-2024 [4] Investment Recommendations - Continued focus on "AI + overseas expansion + satellites" as key investment themes, particularly in optical modules, liquid cooling, and domestic computing power sectors [1][5] - Recommendations for leading companies in the submarine cable sector as domestic recovery accelerates [5]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the impact of US-China tariff adjustments on various industries, including technology, communication, manufacturing, and the internet sector. Core Points and Arguments US-China Tariff Adjustments - The US has reduced tariffs on China from 145% to 30%, including the cancellation of 91% of pressure tariffs and a delay on some reciprocal tariffs, leading to positive market reactions. However, uncertainty remains regarding the full implementation of the 34% reciprocal tariffs [1][2][34]. - The market is optimistic about the potential cancellation of the 20% fentanyl tariff due to China's strict management since 2018, but the 24% delayed reciprocal tariffs are less likely to be removed [2][3]. Domestic Policy Shifts - The Chinese government is adopting an active fiscal policy, including accelerated bond issuance and interest rate cuts, to stabilize growth. This policy response is expected to be quicker than in previous years [1][4]. - Investment opportunities include high-yield assets, overseas expansion, and gold assets due to global order restructuring [1][4]. Stock Market Dynamics - The US-China agreement is expected to enhance market risk appetite, primarily driven by changes in the intrinsic logic of the Chinese stock market, such as declining discount rates and risk-free rates, making equities more attractive [1][5][6]. - The Shanghai Composite Index is projected to reach 3,500-3,600 points before July, with the Hang Seng Index expected to hit new highs in the second half of the year [1][6]. Export Chain and Technology Sector - The export chain, particularly in sectors related to Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla, is anticipated to recover significantly, supported by favorable liquidity and risk appetite [1][7]. - The technology sector is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by trends in AI and robotics, which present substantial market opportunities [7]. Hong Kong Stock Market - The investment value of the Hong Kong internet sector has improved due to the easing of US-China geopolitical tensions, with strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations. Key stocks to watch include Alibaba and Kuaishou [1][8][45][46]. Communication Industry - The communication sector has been significantly impacted by tariff changes, with major players experiencing notable adjustments in stock prices. However, strong capital expenditure growth in North America is expected to drive demand for optical modules and related technologies [2][21][23][24][25]. Manufacturing Supply Chain Trends - There is a trend of global manufacturing supply chains relocating to third countries, with China focusing on a "China for China" strategy to serve its domestic market [2][35]. Investment Opportunities - In the current environment, there are promising investment opportunities in financials and high-dividend assets, particularly as risk-free rates decline [9][10]. - Companies with strong overseas production capabilities and those involved in the AI supply chain are recommended for investment [18][20][28][32]. Long-term Market Outlook - The long-term outlook for the Hong Kong stock market is positive, driven by strong fundamentals in technology and new consumer sectors, alongside increased capital inflows from mainland investors [11][14]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The impact of the H20 chip ban on domestic cloud manufacturers is significant, affecting their capital expenditure and market expectations [27]. - The home appliance industry is seeing a shift due to tariff reductions, with high-margin products like robotic vacuums gaining competitive advantages [53][54][57][58]. - The textile manufacturing sector is experiencing accelerated capacity transfer overseas, particularly to Southeast Asia, driven by economic factors [41][43]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call records, highlighting the implications of tariff adjustments and domestic policies on various sectors and investment opportunities.

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [9] Core Insights - The communication equipment industry has shown a recovery in revenue growth, with Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 revenues increasing by 2.9% and 12.9% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a successful transition to new growth drivers, particularly AI computing power [2][3] - The net profit for the communication equipment sector saw a decline of 141% in Q4 2024, followed by a 24% increase in Q1 2025, reflecting a positive trend in profitability as the industry adapts to new growth dynamics [2][3] - Key segments such as optical devices and IoT are experiencing significant growth, with optical devices showing revenue growth of 52.6% and 67.5% in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, driven by global AI demand [2][3][4] Financial Analysis Communication Equipment - The overall revenue for the communication equipment sector in Q4 2024 was 61.94 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 9.5%, while Q1 2025 saw a recovery with a 9.1% increase [41] - The net profit for the main equipment sector dropped by 66% in Q4 2024 but showed a smaller decline of 11.9% in Q1 2025, indicating ongoing challenges but potential for recovery [41][39] Optical Devices - The optical device segment has shown remarkable growth, with revenues increasing by 52.6% and 67.5% in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, and net profits growing by 124.4% and 114.3% [2][3] IoT Sector - The IoT sector continues to validate its recovery, with good revenue and profit growth in Q1 2025, benefiting from the ongoing trend of interconnected devices [2][3] IDC & CDN - The traditional IDC sector faces challenges, but the AIDC market is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing demand for computing power driven by AI applications [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "AI + Overseas Expansion + Satellite" as core investment opportunities, particularly in areas like optical modules, liquid cooling, and domestic computing power lines [5][6] - Specific stocks recommended include Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, and China Mobile, among others, with a focus on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the AI and digital economy trends [6][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the wind power industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [37]. Core Insights - The report highlights a total of 2.8GW of land-based wind power projects tendered during the week, with an average winning bid price of 1723 CNY/kW for land-based turbines and 2545 CNY/kW for offshore turbines [12][16]. - Year-to-date, a total of 37.4GW has been tendered, with 34.3GW being land-based and 3.1GW offshore [12]. - The report emphasizes the significant growth potential in the offshore wind sector, driven by high project reserves and supportive policies, with expectations for concentrated project launches in 2025 [23]. Summary by Sections Wind Turbine Data - During the week, 2.8GW of land-based wind turbines were tendered, with major contributions from State Power Investment Corporation (2.5GW) and Huadian (0.2GW) [12]. - Year-to-date, 34.8GW of wind turbines have been awarded, with 30.6GW being land-based and 4.3GW offshore [14]. Submarine Cable Data - The report notes that 0.3GW of submarine cables and 0.9GW of onshore cables were awarded during the week, with a total of 4.3GW of submarine cables tendered year-to-date [17]. Offshore Wind Progress - As of May 11, 2025, there are 31GW of offshore wind projects in various stages, including competitive allocation, approval, and construction [19]. - The report identifies Guangdong, Shandong, and Fujian as provinces with significant project reserves, totaling 30GW, 16GW, and 13GW respectively [19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes in the wind power sector: high reserves of offshore wind projects, increased land-based wind tenders, and regional growth in overseas installations [23]. - Companies to watch include Mingyang Smart Energy, Oriental Cable, Zhongtian Technology, and others [23].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of GF High-end Manufacturing Fund has been significantly poor, with a cumulative loss exceeding 10 billion yuan over the past three years, raising concerns about the fund's research and risk control capabilities [1][10]. Performance Summary - As of May 12, the fund's net value has decreased by 9.74% year-to-date, underperforming its benchmark by over 7 percentage points, ranking 986 out of 999 in its category [6]. - Over the past three years, the fund's net value has plummeted by 54.13%, with a ranking of 736 out of 737 in its category [6]. - The fund's performance has been consistently poor since 2022, contrasting with its strong performance from 2019 to 2021 [2]. Financial Metrics - The fund reported a loss of approximately 335 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025 [10]. - Cumulatively, the fund has incurred losses exceeding 10 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, while GF Fund Management has collected over 400 million yuan in management fees during the same period [11]. Investment Focus - As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, 91.01% of the fund's total assets were allocated to stocks, primarily in the new energy sector, including major holdings in companies like Sungrow Power Supply and JA Solar Technology [8]. - The fund manager has indicated a strategic shift to include offshore wind power stocks, anticipating significant growth potential in the subsea cable industry [9].