证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 行业评级：看好 核心观点 发布日期：2026.2.25 煤炭行情走势图 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 研究助理：温慧 执业证书编号：S0770125070012 邮箱：wenh@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 供需格局优化，动力煤价稳中有升 【2026.2.9-2026.2.15】 风险提示 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 动力煤方面，本周动力煤各环节价格呈现震荡上行态势。港口 端、产地端与国际端价格均上涨。短期来看，节后上下游复工 复产推进，叠加库存处于低位，煤价有望延续偏强运行，中长 期在供给约束与需求韧性支撑下，价格将向合理区间修复，维 持窄幅震荡。 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 炼焦煤方面，本周炼焦煤各环节价格呈现弱稳分化态势。港口 端价格周环比持平，产地端价格稳中有降，国际端澳洲峰景矿 硬焦煤 FOB 价周环比小幅下降。整体来看， ...

邱达治 华源证券煤炭分析师: 各位投资者好，我是华融证券的煤炭分析师邱达智。今天是开工的第一天，非常高兴跟各 位投资者分享一下今年的煤炭策略。在开始之前，先祝大家开工大吉。这个煤炭策略报告 是我们在 2025 年 12 月撰写的。主要的题目是供给看政策，需求看天气。紧随去库主线， 布局红利龙头。题目写的还是比较直白的，也就是说在 2026 年，煤炭的供给侧主要是政 策在发力，政策对于供给端的一个约束，会持续的发，产生影响。也是决定了供给的一个 主要的走向。 那么在需求端，天气的影响会比较大，也是说明了其实宏观的一个需求可能较为平静。那 么需，天气它不仅影响了水电的一个挤占的一个作用。另外，对于新能源的一个发力情况 在月度的影响，也会对煤炭的一个需求。产生比较大的一个作用。另外就是我们后半句的 紧随去库主线，还布局红利龙头。因为目前的煤炭总体库存还是在一个高点。往去库的一 个趋势去发展，所以全年的一个高库存和去库也是一个大家需要关注的一个。主要方向， 而红利，在全年的一个布局里面，也是一个非常的重要的主题。 我们的报告就分为动力煤、炼焦煤两个部分进行展开。动力煤，而且每个部分都是从供需 角度去分析。因为煤炭的价 ...

会议主持人: 好的，各位投资者新年好。 甚至是食品饮料，也都出现了这个明显的这个机会所以我觉得就是在今天大家都要看到在 中国市场，它的市场结构变得更加广泛，更加具有梯度。科技和非科技都在出现这个投资 机会。同时，权重和小市值也在出现投资机会。所以我觉得市场结构本身的变化也非常值 得大家去重新的审视今年中国市场的一个。这个眼镜，那说到我们的看法，大家也其实大 家也比较熟悉了。在 1 月中旬以来，国泰海通应该是唯一一个在市场当中讲，要开始重视 内需，要开始重视这个传统行业的这样的一个，这个证券公司和研究团队。 李鹏飞 国泰海通金属分析师: 现在就是我们联合还是策略跟十大周期行业的首席，给大家开年梳理一下这个周期整个板 块，这个投资逻辑，还有这个机会。那首先，我们还是有请策略首席方毅老师发言。 方奕 国泰海通策略首席: 好的，谢谢。各位朋友，大家晚上好，我是方毅。大家新年快乐，这是开年以来，这个第 一天，也是第一次和大家沟通我们对中国市场的看法。那应该来说，2026 年以来，实际 上大家可以看到今年所上涨的这个板块，其实和去年是有比较大的这个差异的。比如说去 年比较强劲的这个算力，今年普遍的表现是这个比较差的。那当 ...

国金证券近日发布公用事业行业研究：2月初国办发布《关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意 见》，较22年发改委、能源局发布的《关于加快建设全国统一电力市场体系的指导意见》，2030年全国 统一电力市场体系基本建成，市场化交易电量占全社会用电量70%左右（2025年末为64%），推动现货 市场27年前基本实现正式运行，2035年全面建成全国统一电力市场体系。 以下为研究报告摘要： 核心观点 电改进入新阶段，重视统一电力市场 2月初国办发布《关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意见》，较22年发改委、能源局发布的《关于 加快建设全国统一电力市场体系的指导意见》，重点强调以下六个维度内容：（1）明确节点：2030年 全国统一电力市场体系基本建成，市场化交易电量占全社会用电量70%左右（2025年末为64%），推动 现货市场27年前基本实现正式运行，2035年全面建成全国统一电力市场体系；（2）优化全国资源配 置：完善跨省跨区跨网交易制度、推动省间互济，研究组建全国电力交易中心；（3）全面市场化：各 类型电源和除保障性用户外的电力用户全部直接参与电力市场；（4）激励调节性电源：传导辅助服务 成本，完善煤电、抽蓄、新型储能 ...

华源证券近日发布大能源行业2026年第7周周报：2025年国网总部总计招标金额894亿元，超过2022年的 2倍，相比2024年增长27%，增速有所加快。从金额来看，组合电器、变压器、电缆及附件、开关柜、 继电保护、通信网设备、电抗器是招标金额排名前7的设备，除通信网设备和断路器外，其余设备中标 金额均同比增加。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 电网：2025年国网总部招标总结 本报告总结国网总部2025年输变电设备招标（不含单一来源采购）情况。2025年国网总部总计招标金额 894亿元，超过2022年的2倍，相比2024年增长27%，增速有所加快。从金额来看，组合电器、变压器、 电缆及附件、开关柜、继电保护、通信网设备、电抗器是招标金额排名前7的设备，除通信网设备和断 路器外，其余设备中标金额均同比增加。上市公司中，中国西电（601179）、平高电气（600312）、思 源电气（002028）、特变电工（600089）、国网信通（600131）、国电南瑞（600406）中标金额排名前 6，除国电南瑞外其它公司中标金额均有较高增长，其中思源电气相比2024年中标金额增长接近80%。 主要设备招标量、中标金额 ...

摘要 建筑业新签合同总额去年同比下降 6.6%至 31.5 万亿元，但八大央企市 占率逆势提升约 10 个百分点，达到 51%，上游材料商市占率提升可能 更为显著，行业正经历供给出清和业务重组。 尽管建筑总需求大幅增加难度大，但结构上"两栋"项目比例上升，利 好头部央国企及其合作的头部材料商。今年作为"十五"开局之年，重 大项目资金倾斜，专项债提前下达，施工工作量有望由负转正。 有色金属方面，春节期间海外金属价格普遍上涨，带动国内有色金属股 票走强。尽管美联储鹰派会议纪要压制贵金属价格，但伊朗局势紧张提 供上涨催化，有色板块短期调整后具备基本面支撑，能源金属标的值得 关注。 煤炭行业，印尼减产计划仍在落实，国内春节后淡季可能继续推进减产。 春节前价格倒挂导致海外进口煤减少，国内供应量下降。港口库存低于 去年同期，电厂、钢厂、焦化厂或面临补库行情，看好节后国内煤炭价 格上涨。 春节期间，多地试点国企收购存量商品房用于保障性租赁住房，新房市 场开发商推出优惠活动。重点城市二手房成交稳中有升，但需观察元宵 周期板块节后开工及行情展望 20260223 节后数据。地产板块总体仍需摸底，看好现金流稳健的商管类公司及基 ...

叶如祯 长江证券分析师: 尊敬的各位投资人，欢迎大家下午收听由这个长安金属煤炭举办的如何展望节后金属煤炭 行情的这个专题会议。那么核心还是节中的话，整体的这个，包括海外资产，包括其实商 品资产，也都出现了比较积极的这个大幅的这个波动。所以，这个长安金属煤炭联合还是 希望在节前去做一个这个观点的展望，以及整个 2~3 月份的这个配置的这样的一个策略。 我这边是这个贵金属叶如珍，然后主要是先更新一下这个黄金和白银的这个假期内的这个 情境。那么假期中，其实核心的线索主要还是这个特朗普和最高法院的这个司法战，触发 的这个避险情绪。 那么带动的贵金属的行情进一步的这个上行，那么触发的这个时点，其实主要是源于 2 月 20 日，这个美国最高法院对这个特朗普裁定这个从动无无权限。在非紧急特殊状态下实施 全面广泛这个性关税。那么在这个裁决之后，特朗普又基于这个 1974 年的这个贸易法案 的第 122 条。立即这个征收了这个 10%的这个全球的关税，那么有效期为 150 天。这一 来一回，直接我们讲导致了这个美元和美债利率的走弱，那么从而，一一方面催生了这个 整体这个美国经济预期的扰动。 另外一方面，还是主要是这个贸易情绪的 ...

Group 1: AI Chip Market and Diamond Heat Sinks - The potential market space for diamond heat sinks in the AI chip sector is vast, with estimates suggesting a market range of 7.5 billion to 150 billion RMB by 2030, depending on penetration rates and value share [1][2] - Huanghe Xuanfeng has successfully developed an 8-inch diamond heat sink, marking a significant milestone in the commercialization of functional diamonds for high-end chip cooling applications [1] - The production workshop for diamond heat sinks is set to commence mass production in February 2023, indicating a shift from laboratory development to large-scale commercial application [1] Group 2: Related Companies in Diamond Technology - Guoji Jinggong has been focusing on diamond functional applications since 2015, with expected revenue from heat sinks and optical windows projected to exceed 10 million RMB by 2025 [3] - World has extensive R&D in CVD diamond preparation and is one of the few companies mastering the entire CVD diamond growth technology [3] - Sifangda is a leading CVD diamond manufacturer in China, capable of mass-producing large-sized diamond substrates and films [3] - Power Diamond has launched semiconductor heat sink materials with applications in AI chips and new energy sectors [3] - Huifeng Diamond's products are still in the research phase and have not yet generated revenue [3] Group 3: Transformer Market Dynamics - The transformer sector is experiencing a surge in demand due to the rapid growth of AI and data centers, with many factories operating at full capacity and orders extending to 2027 [5] - China has become the world's largest transformer producer, accounting for approximately 60% of global production capacity [5] - The U.S. market is facing a projected 30% supply gap for power transformers by 2025, indicating a significant opportunity for companies with strong distribution channels and quick delivery capabilities [5] Group 4: Glass Fiber Price Increases - Glass fiber manufacturers are expected to initiate a second round of price increases of 10% to 15% due to rising costs and supply constraints, potentially doubling prices by the end of the year [6][7] - The shift in production focus from traditional electronic cloth to specialty glass fiber cloth is causing a supply shortage in the traditional electronic cloth market [6] Group 5: Optical Fiber Market Growth - The demand for high-performance optical fibers is increasing significantly due to the AI wave, with G.652.D single-mode optical fiber prices reaching a near seven-year high of 35 RMB per core kilometer [9] - The industry is experiencing a confirmed upward price trend, with expectations for continued price increases as demand from telecom operators rises [9] Group 6: Coal Market Trends - The coal sector is seeing positive trends with a significant reduction in inventory and a favorable supply outlook, leading to optimistic coal price forecasts post-holiday [10] - The domestic coal supply has been at a low operational rate, while import volumes remain low, contributing to a favorable market environment [10]

Group 1: Solid-State Battery Industry - The global solid-state battery industry is expected to achieve GWh-level mass production by 2027, driven by collaborative innovation in materials, processes, and equipment [5][6][7] - The solid-state battery supply chain is evolving towards a "materials-equipment-manufacturing-application" collaborative innovation model, with key advancements in electrolyte film formation processes impacting ionic conductivity [6][7] - The global solid-state battery equipment market is projected to reach 120 billion yuan by 2026, with significant demand for new equipment such as dry electrode preparation and isostatic pressing [7][8] Group 2: AI Applications and Media Consumption - The 2026 Spring Festival has become a battleground for major AI companies to showcase their technological capabilities, integrating AI deeply into program production and real-time interactions [10][11] - The focus of domestic AI large models has shifted from general capabilities to native agent capabilities, emphasizing task planning and multi-modal technology breakthroughs [10][11] - The gaming sector during the Spring Festival saw a preference for high DAU games, particularly in the MOBA and FPS genres, with Tencent's games dominating the market [11][12] Group 3: Energy Sector and Coal Market - In 2025, the State Grid's total bidding amount reached 89.4 billion yuan, doubling that of 2022 and increasing by 27% compared to 2024, indicating strong growth in the energy sector [14][15] - The coal market experienced unexpected inventory reductions before the Spring Festival, leading to optimistic coal prices post-holiday, supported by favorable supply conditions [16] - The release of the national unified electricity market policy aims to establish a market-oriented mechanism centered on supply and demand, emphasizing sustainability [17][18] Group 4: New Consumption Trends - The 2026 Spring Festival saw a significant increase in travel and consumption, with cross-regional passenger flow expected to reach 9.5 billion, a 5.32% increase from 2025 [19][20] - The beauty sector showed signs of recovery during the off-peak season, with a notable increase in sales, particularly in the makeup category, driven by festive consumption [22][23] - The overall retail and catering sales during the Spring Festival increased by 8.6% compared to the previous year, reflecting a vibrant consumer market [21][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [35]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slow recovery in domestic coal supply and a reduction in imports, which is expected to support coal prices in the near future [1]. - As of February 13, 2026, the spot prices for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port showed increases, with Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 grades rising by 23, 25, and 23 RMB/ton respectively [1]. - The report notes that the average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports increased by 4.54% week-on-week, while the outflow rose by 14.42%, indicating strong demand [1]. - The report suggests that the current coal prices are under less pressure for significant declines due to lower port inventories compared to the previous year [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The State Council issued guidelines to improve the national unified electricity market system, aiming for 70% of electricity consumption to be market-based by 2030 [5]. - Safety production measures in coal mines are being emphasized, particularly in Henan province, focusing on intelligent mining and accident prevention [5]. 2. Domestic Coal Prices - Domestic thermal coal prices remained stable, with various grades reporting no significant changes [6][8]. - The report indicates that international thermal coal prices have shown slight increases, with Indonesian coal prices rising by 1.2% [7]. 3. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased by 5.92% to $71.76 per barrel as of February 20, 2026, which may influence coal pricing dynamics [12]. 4. Bohai Rim Port Inventory - Coal inventory at Bohai Rim ports decreased by 1.96% week-on-week, with a total of 24.15 million tons as of February 14, 2026 [17]. - The report notes a significant increase in both coal inflow and outflow at these ports, indicating a robust market activity [17]. 5. Domestic Coastal Freight Rates - Domestic coastal freight rates decreased by 2.90%, averaging 26.78 RMB/ton as of February 13, 2026 [24]. - International freight rates showed mixed trends, with some routes experiencing slight increases while others decreased [24]. 6. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, providing insights into their market performance and expected earnings per share (EPS) [29].