Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The chemical sector is experiencing a dual drive of cyclical recovery and growth, with a focus on organic silicon, PTA, polyester filament, caprolactam, spandex, vitamins, sweeteners, refrigerants, and phosphorus chemicals [5][6] - The organic silicon industry is entering a recovery phase, with new applications becoming the core growth engine. From 2019 to 2024, domestic DMC capacity is rapidly expanding, leading to temporary oversupply and continuous price declines. However, by 2025, no new capacity is expected, and demand from emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics is maintaining high growth [5][6] - The PTA and polyester filament industry is moving towards a new prosperity cycle as the capacity expansion phase is nearing its end, with new capacity mainly concentrated in leading enterprises [6] - The refrigerant market is entering a high prosperity cycle due to quota policies and stable demand growth from the heat pump and cold chain markets [7] - The synthetic biology sector is expected to see explosive demand growth as fossil-based materials face disruptive challenges, with a focus on energy-efficient products [8] - OLED technology is accelerating its penetration into larger displays, supported by government policies promoting the new display industry [9] - The demand for electronic chemicals is increasing due to the rapid development of the semiconductor industry, particularly in China, where the market is heavily reliant on imports [11] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 12th with a decline of 0.86% during the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026 [20] - The top three performing sectors were oil and petrochemicals (7.95%), communications (5.83%), and coal (3.68%) [20] Key Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is promoting the mercury-free transformation of the PVC industry, focusing on the development of mercury-free catalysts [36] - Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to increased oil prices, with WTI crude averaging $61.33 per barrel, up 2.39% from the previous week [36]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：公司出口涉及欧盟国家，请问欧盟地区业务收入在公 司整体营业收入中的占比大致为多少？此外，公司对欧盟市场的销售主要通过哪种方式实现：是以境内 主体直接向欧盟客户出口为主，还是通过在欧盟国家设立的子公司进行销售，或通过第三方贸易商、代 理商转销至欧盟市场？ 新凤鸣（603225.SH）2月2日在投资者互动平台表示，公司出口占比为11%左右，欧盟地区的业务占比 相对较少，主要是直接向欧盟客户发生业务往来。 ...

Market Overview - The chemical fiber sector experienced a significant decline of 6.82% on February 2, with Xinxiang Chemical Fiber leading the drop at -10.04% [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Xinxiang Chemical Fiber (code: 000949) closed at 6.54, down 10.04%, with a trading volume of 1.318 million shares and a transaction value of 884 million yuan [2] - Huafeng Daxue (code: 002064) also saw a decline of 10.02%, closing at 11.59, with a transaction value of 142 million yuan [2] - Other notable declines included Shenma Co. (code: 600810) at -9.90% and Anhui Wuwei High-tech (code: 600063) at -7.97% [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The chemical fiber sector saw a net outflow of 510 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 571 million yuan [2] - The table of capital flow indicates that major stocks like Xinxiang Chemical Fiber and Huafeng Daxue experienced significant net outflows from institutional and speculative investors [3] Stock-Specific Capital Flow - Xinxiang Chemical Fiber had a net outflow of 461.68 million yuan from major investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 2.5 million yuan [3] - New Fengming (code: 603225) had a net inflow of 428.18 million yuan from major investors, but a net outflow of 60.48 million yuan from speculative investors [3] - Other stocks like Jilin Carbon Valley (code: 920077) and Suzhou Longjie (code: 603332) also showed varied capital flows, with some experiencing net outflows from major and speculative investors [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - PX: High-level volatile market, backwardation in calendar spreads - PTA: High-level volatile market - MEG: Range-bound trading [1] 2. Core Views - PX: Before the holiday, it will be a high-level volatile market in the single contract, with backwardation in calendar spreads. The industry and funds are in a game, and the high-level volatility increases. The fundamentals are gradually weakening, and PX has entered a pattern of inventory accumulation. PTA processing fees above 450 should be shorted on rallies [7]. - PTA: It will be a range-bound market, with a bearish outlook on calendar spreads. PTA processing fees above 450 should be shorted on rallies. The polyester demand for PTA is expected to decline marginally, and it is difficult to change the PTA inventory accumulation pattern from January to February. Pay attention to the support at 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton [8]. - MEG: It will be a range-bound market in the single contract. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weakening, making it difficult to change the inventory accumulation pattern [8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Futures Market - Yesterday's closing prices: PX主力 at 7400, PTA主力 at 5270, MEG主力 at 3913, PF主力 at 6656, SC主力 at 470.8. The price changes were -82, -62, -44, -64, -1.7 respectively, and the percentage changes were -1.10%, -1.16%, -1.11%, -0.95%, -0.36% respectively [2]. - Calendar spreads: PX5 - 9 at 16, PTA5 - 9 at -12, MEG5 - 9 at -105, PF3 - 4 at -56, SC2 - 3 at -5.2. The price changes were 0, 6, -8, 0, 2.6 respectively [2]. Spot Market - Yesterday's spot prices: PX CFR China at 914.33 dollars/ton, PTA East China at 5290 yuan/ton, MEG spot at 3814 yuan/ton, Naphtha MOPJ at 596.5 dollars/ton, Dated Brent at 72.7 dollars/barrel. The price changes were -7, 40, -23, 0.5, 0.35 respectively [2]. - Spot processing fees: PX - Naphtha spread at 325 dollars/ton, PTA processing fee at 398.44 yuan/ton, Short - fiber processing fee at 120.64 yuan/ton, Bottle - chip processing fee at 121.38 yuan/ton, MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai crude spread at -4.34 dollars/ton. The price changes were -13, 6.79, -21.37, -73.92, 0 respectively [2]. Fundamental News - PX: On January 30, the PX price fell. The physical spread between PX and naphtha narrowed. The domestic PX plant operating rate rose to 89.2%, and the Asian plant operating rate was 81.6% (+1%). The PTA operating rate remained at 76.6%. The PX import volume in the first quarter increased to about 900,000 tons per month [3][5][7]. - MEG: A 400,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang plans to shut down for equipment replacement this weekend, expected to last about 5 days. The plant operating rate rose to 74.4% (+1.3%), and the import volume from January to February will remain high [6][8]. - Polyester: The polyester maintenance volume from January to February was about 1.562 million tons, and a 200,000 - ton plant is scheduled for maintenance in March. A 400,000 - ton plant in Zhejiang will shut down for maintenance and plans to restart in early March. On January 30, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were polarized, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 65%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was about 30% [6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the oil and petrochemical sector, with the sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by +8.40% this week [10]. Core Insights - Geopolitical factors remain the primary driver in the current oil market, with significant attention on the potential for conflict between the US and Iran. The market is pricing in a geopolitical risk premium of approximately $8-10 per barrel related to Iran [15][17]. - The report anticipates that if the situation with Iran does not escalate into a full-blown conflict, oil prices may revert to supply-demand fundamentals, potentially leading to a price decline [15][17]. - The report highlights that the recent cold wave and reduced production in Kazakhstan have slowed the accumulation of global inventories, with expectations of a return to a higher accumulation rate in the coming weeks [17][18]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown a weekly increase of +7.95%, with specific indices such as the oil and gas resources index rising by +7.79% and the oil and gas extraction services index by +7.96% [10][11]. Oil Sector - As of January 29, WTI crude oil was priced at $65.42, up by $6.06, while Brent crude was at $72.57, up by $6.60. The EIA reported a decrease in commercial crude oil inventories by 2.295 million barrels [16][17]. - The report notes that US crude oil production stands at 13.696 million barrels per day, with a decrease in net imports by 61.8% [16]. Refining Sector - The average operating rate of domestic refineries was reported at 80.02%, with a slight increase of 1.24 percentage points from the previous week. The average refining margin for major refineries was 659.83 yuan per ton, down by 101.65 yuan per ton [16]. Polyester Sector - The PX-Naphtha spread has increased to approximately $340 per ton, with PTA processing fees at 374.32 yuan per ton. The report indicates a decline in profitability for polyester products, with average profit levels for various types of polyester showing negative margins [16]. Olefins Sector - The average price for ethylene in the domestic market was reported at 5769 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 0.33%. The propylene market saw an increase in average transaction prices to 6400 yuan per ton, up by 3.64% [16].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 03 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 CONTENTS 01 观点小结 上游观点汇总 瓶片：震荡偏弱 2 02 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：高位震荡，控制仓位 供应 短纤工厂开始集中检修，平均负荷降低至85.3%，低熔点及中空短纤方面减停力度较大，棉型相对较小。 需求 终端开工率加速下行，以农历时间对比略早于往年。在原料快速上涨过程中，纱线、坯布价格跟涨不及，下游一方面担心年后价格上涨，另一 方面受制于利润，小幅补年前的库存为主。纱线、坯布环节的成品库存下降。出口订单环比好转，主要由于当前至美国的关税较东南亚无显著 劣势。短纤库存低位， ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 01 CONTENTS 2 02 短纤（PF） 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 瓶片：震荡偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 观点小结 上游观点汇总 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 策略 2）跨期：反套持有 3）跨品种：无 03 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：高位震荡，控制仓位 供应 短纤工厂开始集中检修，平均负荷降低至85.3%，低熔点及中空短纤方面减停力度较大，棉型相对较小。 需求 终端开工率加速下行，以农历时间对比略早于往年。在原料快速上涨过程中，纱线、坯布价格跟涨不及，下游一方面担心年后价格上涨，另一 方面受制于利润，小幅补年前的库存为主。纱线、坯布环节的成品库存下降。出口订单环比好转，主要由于当前至美国 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the oil and petrochemical sector, with the sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by +8.40% this week [10]. Core Insights - The oil market is experiencing a rapid increase in prices due to geopolitical risks, particularly concerning Iran's potential actions in the Strait of Hormuz, with a risk premium estimated at $8-10 per barrel [15][16]. - The overall supply remains in excess, with previous supportive factors like cold weather and reduced production in Kazakhstan starting to stabilize [15]. - The report highlights a mixed performance across various segments of the petrochemical industry, with oil and gas resources showing a +7.79% increase, while the polyester index decreased by -1.82% [10]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The petrochemical sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with various indices showing significant weekly changes, including the oil and gas extraction service index at +7.96% and the refining and chemical index at +6.75% [10][11]. Oil Market - As of January 29, WTI crude oil closed at $65.42, up $6.06 from the previous week, while Brent crude closed at $72.57, up $6.60 [16]. - The EIA reported a decrease in commercial crude oil inventories by 2.295 million barrels, with a notable drop in gasoline inventories as well [16]. Refining Sector - The average operating rate of domestic refineries increased to 80.02%, with a slight rise in gasoline demand due to seasonal travel [16]. - The average refining margin for major refineries was reported at 659.83 yuan per ton, down 101.65 yuan from the previous period [16]. Polyester Sector - The PX-Naphtha spread has risen to approximately $340 per ton, with PTA processing fees reported at 374.32 yuan per ton [15]. - The report notes a decline in profitability for various polyester products, with average profit levels for POY150D at -21.03 yuan per ton [15]. Olefins Market - The average price for ethylene in the domestic market was reported at 5769 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 0.33% from the previous week [15]. - Propylene prices in Shandong increased by 225 yuan per ton, reflecting a 3.64% rise [15].

证券研究报告 大炼化周报： 春节前终端需求减弱叠加工人返乡增多，织机开机率下滑 石化化工分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2026年2月1日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 大化工首席分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn ◼ 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为2404元/吨，环比-32元/吨（环比-1%）；国外 重点大炼化项目本周价差为1092元/吨，环比-44元/吨（环比-4%）。 ◼ 【聚酯板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为6900/7143/8064元/吨，环比分别+179/+179/+207元/吨， POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为-66/-171/-156元/吨，环比分别-37/-37/-18元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为 14.0/15.7/20.0天，环比分别+0.1/-0.8/-1.2天，长丝开工率为86.1%，环比-2.5pct。下游方面，本周织机开工率 为42.4%，环比-8. ...

2026 年 2 月 1 日 行业研究 地缘政治不确定性驱动油价上行，坚定看好石化板块景气度 ——石油化工行业周报第 438 期（20260126—20260201） 要点 地缘局势紧张抬升油价，预计 26 年油价或在 60-80 美元/桶区间宽幅震荡。 本周伊朗地缘局势紧张程度加剧，原油的地缘政治风险溢价上升，油价上涨。 截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，布伦特、WTI 原油期货价格分别报收 69.83、65.74 美元/桶，较上周收盘分别上涨 6.7%、7.3%。全球局势持续动荡，地缘政治 的不确定性有望为油价景气奠定基础。此外，考虑到：（1）美国页岩油边际 成本高企，25Q1 调查边际成本约为 65 美元/桶，有望成为原油供给端边际减 量；（2）OPEC+于 26Q1 暂缓增产，体现其平衡油价诉求，长期来看 OPEC+ 各国财政依赖原油销售收入，中高油价诉求有望持续；（3）26 年原油需求预 期向好，IEA 预计 2026 年全球原油需求增长 93 万桶/日，高于 2025 年的 85 万桶/日。我们认为油价未来将在 60-80 美元区间宽幅震荡，油价中高位运行 有望为石化板块景气奠定基础。 全球深 ...