2026 年 2 月 1 日 行业研究 地缘政治不确定性驱动油价上行，坚定看好石化板块景气度 ——石油化工行业周报第 438 期（20260126—20260201） 要点 地缘局势紧张抬升油价，预计 26 年油价或在 60-80 美元/桶区间宽幅震荡。 本周伊朗地缘局势紧张程度加剧，原油的地缘政治风险溢价上升，油价上涨。 截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，布伦特、WTI 原油期货价格分别报收 69.83、65.74 美元/桶，较上周收盘分别上涨 6.7%、7.3%。全球局势持续动荡，地缘政治 的不确定性有望为油价景气奠定基础。此外，考虑到：（1）美国页岩油边际 成本高企，25Q1 调查边际成本约为 65 美元/桶，有望成为原油供给端边际减 量；（2）OPEC+于 26Q1 暂缓增产，体现其平衡油价诉求，长期来看 OPEC+ 各国财政依赖原油销售收入，中高油价诉求有望持续；（3）26 年原油需求预 期向好，IEA 预计 2026 年全球原油需求增长 93 万桶/日，高于 2025 年的 85 万桶/日。我们认为油价未来将在 60-80 美元区间宽幅震荡，油价中高位运行 有望为石化板块景气奠定基础。 全球深 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil service engineering sector experienced a decline of 3.38% on January 30, with Keli Co., Ltd. leading the losses. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95, down 0.96%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89, down 0.66% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The oil service engineering sector saw significant individual stock movements, with notable declines in Keli Co., Ltd. by 14.39% and Qianeng Hengxin by 12.83% [2]. - The trading volume for Keli Co., Ltd. was 138,000 shares, with a transaction value of 773 million yuan [2]. - The overall sector had a net outflow of 1 billion yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 656 million yuan [2][3]. Group 2: Individual Stock Analysis - Keli Co., Ltd. closed at 51.80 yuan, experiencing a drop of 14.39% with a trading volume of 138,000 shares [2]. - Qianeng Hengxin closed at 31.33 yuan, down 12.83%, with a trading volume of 457,200 shares [2]. - The stock of Huibo Yin fell by 6.14%, closing at 4.13 yuan, with a trading volume of 143,670 shares [2]. Group 3: Fund Flow Analysis - Major funds showed a net outflow from several stocks, including Keli Co., Ltd. with a net outflow of 75.27 million yuan [3]. - Retail investors showed a positive net inflow in stocks like Huibo Yin, with a net inflow of 58.99 million yuan [3]. - The stock of Haiyou Development had a net inflow of 18.4 million yuan from retail investors, despite a major fund outflow [3].

消息面上，昨夜，美油主力合约收涨3.64%，报65.51美元/桶；布油主力合约涨3.43%，报69.68美元/桶。市场对美国可能对伊朗发起攻击的担忧加剧，地缘 政治风险升温推升原油供应中断预期，支撑布油价格上涨。 分析人士指出，地缘政治紧张与宏观情绪升温，正推动原油、黄金、白银等大宗商品走强，也意外点燃了国内相关主题LOF基金的交易热度。然而，火爆的 二级市场交易价格已大幅脱离基金净值，形成巨大溢价"泡沫"。不少石油类基金LOF今日停牌1小时，同时也开启了限购措施。 在此背景下，油气ETF汇添富（159309）或更具性价比，凭借ETF的交易优势，跟踪中证油气资源指数的油气ETF汇添富（159309）不仅聚焦国内油气产业 链优质企业，全面把握油气机遇，其溢价水平还相对较低，能更真实地反映价值，其次产品的流动性充沛，交易便捷！ 1月30日，A股市场震荡走弱，资源行业跌幅居前，油气ETF汇添富（159309）冲高后回落，开盘一度涨超2%，当前跌超2%，盘中振幅超4%！资金持续涌 入油气板块，油气ETF汇添富（159309）强势吸金超7800万元，加上今日已经连续14日强势吸金超4.7亿元！ 油气ETF汇添富（159 ...

证券之星消息，1月29日油服工程板块较上一交易日上涨7.69%，科力股份领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4157.98，上涨0.16%。深证成指报收于14300.08，下跌0.3%。油服工程板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日油服工程板块主力资金净流入7416.32万元，游资资金净流入2.28亿元，散户资 金净流出3.02亿元。油服工程板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600968 海油发展 | | 1.31亿 | 10.08% | -2249.86万 | -1.73% | -1.08 Z | -8.34% | | 600339 中油工程 | | 1.14 Z | 10.36% | -2758.69万 | -2.50% | -8690.59万 | -7.86% | | 920088 科力股份 | | 1.06亿 | 11.75% | 1652.53万 | 1.84% | 1 ...

智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，受地缘冲突影响，市场对油气供应减少的担忧上升，导致油 价回升。而全球的油气资本开支正处于较低水平，存在向上恢复的空间。但是，考虑到油气项目的建设 周期较长，该行预计下游业主将更重视油气服务和装备企业的长期竞争力，因此该行看好具有高竞争力 的油服装备企业的投资机会。 东方证券主要观点如下： 地缘冲突的担忧增加，布伦特油价回升，有望提高油服景气度 由于油服项目的建设周期较长，因此业主公司往往需要观察油价的持续性。目前的地缘冲突担忧推升了 油价和市场的期待，但油服的景气度回升仍需要事件。该行预计从油价回升到油服景气传导至少需要半 年左右。考虑到下游公司对供应商的筛选会更加重视长期合作，因此该行认为高竞争力的企业更有望受 益复苏。 投资建议：部分相关标的：杰瑞股份、迪威尔、博迈科、海油工程、中密控股。 风险提示：地缘冲突缓解或供给波动导致油价下降、海外高利率拖累投资、海外贸易摩擦加剧影响投资 信心、原材料价格上涨拖累企业盈利。 全球油气开支活跃度仍在较低水平，向上有弹性 目前全球的油服景气度处于较低区间，比如全球活跃钻机数目前约1700-1800部，仍低于2019年以前水 平。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Insights - Concerns over geopolitical conflicts have increased, leading to a rise in Brent crude oil prices, which is expected to improve the oil service industry's outlook. Recent military actions by the U.S. against Venezuela and increased military presence near Iran have contributed to these concerns. Additionally, severe weather in the U.S. has impacted refining output. As a result, Brent crude oil prices have shown a sustained increase, and if this trend continues, capital expenditures in the industry are expected to marginally improve, enhancing the oil service sector's outlook [9] - Global oil and gas capital expenditures remain at low levels, indicating potential for upward recovery. Currently, the global active rig count is approximately 1,700-1,800, still below pre-2019 levels. In China, capital expenditures in the oil and gas sector have contracted due to oil prices and the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with expected year-on-year declines of 1.8% and 5.1% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. After several years of capital contraction, a recovery in industry expenditures is anticipated. Domestically, China's reliance on foreign oil and gas remains high, and a gradual recovery in capital expenditures is expected. Internationally, U.S. government policies are promoting oil and gas development, and the EIA predicts an increase in natural gas generation capacity in the coming years, suggesting a potential rebound in overseas oil service expenditure in 2026 [9] - The recovery in oil service sector sentiment takes time, emphasizing the importance of competitive companies. Due to the long construction cycles of oil service projects, owner companies often need to observe the sustainability of oil prices. Current geopolitical concerns have elevated oil prices and market expectations, but a recovery in oil service sentiment will require time. It is estimated that it will take at least six months for the positive effects of rising oil prices to be felt in the oil service sector. As downstream companies place greater emphasis on long-term partnerships with suppliers, companies with high competitiveness are expected to benefit more from the recovery [9]

胜利石油工程公司管具技术服务中心扎实推进制修业务专业化重组，在改革攻坚中交出了一份亮眼答 卷：通过整合资源、优化流程，有力推动外委业务向自主运营转化，全年节约外委成本超千万元，索具 加工效率提升22%，套管头产能提升34%，紧急任务响应时间平均缩短50%以上，业务运行模式实现了 从"各自为战"到"协同作战"的深刻转变。 "重组不是简单的资源叠加，而是通过机制创新实现效能倍增。"管具技术服务中心代表、党委书记马国 良表示，下一步，管具技术服务中心将继续深化内部协同、完善协作流程、拓展业务范围，在巩固现有 成果的基础上，进一步加强技术研发与人才培养，积极开拓高附加值技术服务市场，持续提升自主保障 能力和市场竞争力。(大众新闻记者 顾松 通讯员 杨冬玲) 从材料准备到精密加工，各环节无缝衔接，仅用一天时间就高质量完成首批6根大梁加工，产品全部合 格，圆满完成保供任务。"这不仅是效率的提升，更是团队战斗力的体现。"精密加工制修中心党支部书 记于笑冬感慨道。 在核心部件维修方面，管具技术服务中心也实现了关键突破。以长期依赖外部采购的井控装置试压泵保 压阀为例，中心整合精密加工与现场维修力量，组建攻关小组开展技术攻坚。通 ...

Group 1 - The resource sector is leading the market surge, with the oil and gas sector experiencing fluctuations, as evidenced by the oil and gas ETF Huatai (159309) rising over 3.8% and reaching a historical high, attracting over 25 million yuan in funds during the day [1] - The oil and gas ETF Huatai has seen continuous inflows, accumulating over 1 billion yuan in the past 10 days [1] - Major stocks in the oil and gas sector, such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and Sinopec, have shown significant price increases, with CNOOC rising 6.34% and Sinopec increasing 4.07% [2][5] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, may threaten Middle Eastern oil exports, increasing regional risks [3] - Supply disruptions in Kazakhstan due to power distribution issues at major oil fields are expected to reduce oil exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which may support oil prices [4] - The current cold weather in the US is causing significant fluctuations in natural gas prices, with potential implications for other energy prices if the cold spell persists [4] Group 3 - The oil and gas sector is highlighted as a focus area due to the ongoing commodity supercycle, with energy prices expected to rise following other commodities [4] - The oil and gas ETF Huatai is designed to focus on the oil and gas industry chain, including exploration, equipment, refining, and transportation, emphasizing companies with quality reserves and low-cost advantages [9] - The index of the oil and gas ETF Huatai has shown strong performance over the past six months, one year, and three years, leading among similar indices [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [173]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran are supporting international oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures averaging $64.8 and $60.1 per barrel, respectively, showing a slight increase of $0.1 and a decrease of $0.1 from the previous week [2]. - U.S. crude oil production is reported at 13.73 million barrels per day, with a slight decrease of 20,000 barrels per day week-on-week, while active oil rigs increased by 1 to 411 [2]. - The report recommends several companies for investment, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Oil Data Brief - The report provides a comprehensive overview of weekly oil data, including price trends, inventory levels, production rates, and import/export statistics [5][7][8]. 2. Oil and Petrochemical Sector Performance - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown varied performance, with specific companies experiencing significant fluctuations in stock prices over the past week, month, and year [21][22]. 3. Crude Oil Data Tracking - Crude oil prices have been tracked, showing fluctuations in both Brent and WTI prices, alongside inventory levels and production data [25][26][37]. - U.S. crude oil inventories have increased, with total inventories reported at 840 million barrels, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 441,000 barrels [2][44]. 4. Refined Oil Data Tracking - The report details refined oil prices, inventory levels, production, and consumption trends, indicating a decrease in refinery throughput to 16.6 million barrels per day, down by 350,000 barrels per day [4][74]. - Refined oil inventories have also seen changes, with gasoline and diesel inventories increasing by 598,000 and 335,000 barrels, respectively [2][108]. 5. Oil Service Sector Data Tracking - The oil service sector is analyzed, focusing on the average day rates for drilling rigs and the overall performance of service companies [158][161].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [4]. Core Insights - Three major institutions have raised their oil supply forecasts, with the EIA predicting a global surplus of 2.83 million barrels per day for this year [6][16]. - The EIA has adjusted its 2026 oil price forecast upward to an average of $56 per barrel, while lowering the natural gas price forecast to $3.46 per million British thermal units [7][11]. - The IEA expects a demand increase of 930,000 barrels per day in 2026, while OPEC and EIA have slightly reduced their demand forecasts [11][16]. Supply and Demand Summary - The EIA has raised its global oil supply forecast for this year by 120,000 barrels per day, while the IEA has increased its forecast by 100,000 barrels per day [13][16]. - The EIA anticipates that global oil production will rise by 1.37 million barrels per day in 2026, with OPEC+ contributing approximately 1.13 million barrels per day [15][16]. - The IEA projects a global oil supply increase of 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching 108.7 million barrels per day [16]. Price Trends Summary - The price of butadiene has surged over 28% since the beginning of the year, driven by a narrowing price spread between naphtha and ethylene [17]. - As of January 23, the spot price of butadiene reached 10,700 yuan per ton [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, due to tightening supply and improving market conditions [21]. - It suggests monitoring major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, as refining margins are expected to improve [21]. - The report also highlights the potential of offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering, given the high capital expenditure in offshore exploration [21].