点击 上方 硬AI 关注我们 摩根大通表示，英伟达、Marvell、亚马逊等客户确实下调了2025年的CoWoS订单预期，降幅约为8-10%。但这并非需 求问题，而是客户此前过度乐观的预期回归理性。2025年CoWoS产能仍将供不应求，英伟达的Blackwell芯片出货量有 望达到600万片。 硬·AI 作者 |赵 颖 CoWoS订单削减并非需求问题，而是客户此前过度乐观的预期回归理性。2025年CoWoS产能仍将 供不应求，英伟达的Blackwell芯片出货量有望达到600万片。 "砍单"疑云：预期调整，而非需求萎缩 关于为何会出现"砍单"的说法？摩根大通的供应链调查显示： 英伟达、Marvell、亚马逊等客户确实下调了2025年的CoWoS订单预期，降幅约为8-10%。其 中，英伟达的产能预期下调了约4-4.5万晶圆。 但这并不意味着需求出了问题。这些调整更多是由于客户最初的预期过于乐观，远超台积电及整个 生态系统的供应能力。随着2025年交付时间临近，台积电开始要求客户提供更准确的预测，促使客 户修正了此前的过度预订。 摩根大通还指出，产品变化和订单优先级也可能导致了供应链的预期调整： 英伟达有多款产品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in advanced semiconductor packaging towards Fan-Out Panel Level Packaging (FOPLP), which is expected to replace CoWoS as the new mainstream for AI chip packaging. Innolux, leveraging its existing panel production advantages, aims to mass-produce FOPLP by mid-2023, outpacing major semiconductor players like TSMC and ASE Group [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - FOPLP technology is gaining traction due to its higher chip placement efficiency and lower costs compared to traditional CoWoS, which uses circular substrates. The square substrates in FOPLP allow for a greater number of chips to be packaged, significantly improving utilization rates [3][4]. - Major companies, including TSMC and ASE Group, are also exploring FOPLP technology, with ASE Group planning to enter the 600mm x 600mm FOPLP space by Q2 2023 and begin trial production in Q3 2023 [3][4]. Group 2: Company Strategy - Innolux has been developing FOPLP technology for eight years and has launched a "Semiconductor Fast Track Plan" to recruit 500 new talents to accelerate its deployment and achieve mass production of the largest FOPLP size of 700mm x 700mm by mid-2023 [4]. - The company has outlined a three-step roadmap for FOPLP technology, starting with Chip First process technology, followed by RDL First for mid-to-high-end products within 1-2 years, and TGV process technology in collaboration with partners expected to be ready in 2-3 years [4]. Group 3: Financial Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about Innolux's panel business, which is experiencing price increases despite the traditional off-season, and the advanced packaging segment is expected to yield higher profit margins than the panel business, thus reducing the risks associated with panel market fluctuations [1][3].

Market Performance - The main board led the gains with stocks like Yongding Co. (+10.04%), Bomin Electronics (+10.04%), and Lianchuang Optoelectronics (+10.00%) showing significant increases [1] - The ChiNext board saw a strong performance with Meiansen (+15.21%) and Saiyi Information (+14.98%) leading the charge [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation board was also active, with Guoguang Electric (+13.77%) and Zhiyuan Huilian (+11.20%) among the top performers [1] - Active sub-industries included SW Brand Consumer Electronics (+1.82%) and SW Passive Components (+1.60%) [1] Domestic News - Aibang VR announced it has completed a new round of financing worth several million yuan, focusing on expanding its research team and optimizing silicon carbide waveguide etching mass production processes [1] - Zhipu announced a strategic financing round exceeding 1 billion yuan, aimed at promoting technological innovation and ecological development of domestic GLM large models [1] - TSMC's 5/4nm process remains fully loaded, with increased chip production for Nvidia's B series and RTX 50 series compared to the beginning of the year [1] - Xiamen Silan's 8-inch silicon carbide power device chip manufacturing line project has officially topped out, with an investment of 7 billion yuan and expected production capacity of 420,000 8-inch SiC chips annually by 2026 [1] Company Announcements - Jibite announced progress on its investment fund, with changes in limited partners and an additional 50 million yuan commitment from Tianjin Dingsheng Wireless Network Technology Co. [2] - Tonghui Information reported a 2024 revenue of 217 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.60%, but a net loss of 70 million yuan [2] - Yun Chuang Data reported a 2024 revenue of 262 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.27%, with a net loss of 105 million yuan [2] - Lian Technology announced a delay in part of its fundraising projects, with the Ningbo Lian Technology Co. expansion project now expected to reach operational status by June 30, 2025 [2] Overseas News - Ansys announced the official commissioning of its 8-inch SiC wafer joint venture factory, expected to start production in Q4 2025 and reach full capacity by 2028 [2] - BMW is preparing its Munich factory for the launch of the NEUE KLASSE (new generation model) in summer 2026, with three new production workshops under construction [2] - HP's CEO indicated that the company is considering relocating part of its manufacturing to the U.S., with less than 10% of North American sales expected to come from China by the end of the fiscal year [2] - Apple is developing a highly integrated Wi-Fi and Bluetooth chip for new Apple TV and HomePod mini models, potentially supporting Wi-Fi 6E and Wi-Fi 7 [2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the electronic industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The electronic industry experienced a decline of 4.9% in the past week, ranking 28th out of 31 sectors, while the SW electronic sub-sectors showed mixed performance [2][44]. - DeepSeek launched five major technologies during its "Open Source Week," enhancing AI capabilities and reducing hardware dependency for developers [5][28]. - OpenAI released its largest and most expensive model, GPT-4.5, which significantly improves computational efficiency compared to its predecessor [34][35]. - The report highlights a growing demand for domestic semiconductor chips as the global storage chip industry begins to recover [2][40]. Summary by Sections 1. DeepSeek Open Source Week Releases - FlashMLA enhances AI scene generation speed with optimized decoding efficiency [6][8]. - DeepEP improves collaboration among AI experts by addressing inefficiencies in token distribution across GPUs [9][11]. - DeepGEMM revolutionizes matrix operations for AI models, achieving up to 1358 TFLOPS performance [14][16]. - DualPipe and EPLB optimize parallel computing strategies, significantly improving AI training efficiency [19][22]. - The 3FS distributed file system supports high-performance data processing for AI workloads, achieving a throughput of 6.6 TiB/s [23][27]. 2. Global Industry Dynamics - NVIDIA reported a record revenue of $39.3 billion for Q4 2025, driven by strong demand in data centers [30][32]. - OpenAI's GPT-4.5 model showcases enhanced performance metrics, including a 62.5% accuracy rate in benchmarks [34][35]. - Alibaba announced a substantial investment of 380 billion yuan in cloud and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years [36]. - TSMC's advanced packaging orders surged, with NVIDIA securing over 70% of the capacity for its new GPU architecture [37][39]. - Samsung signed a patent licensing agreement with Yangtze Memory Technologies for 3D NAND technology, marking a significant advancement in domestic semiconductor capabilities [40]. 3. Market Review - The electronic industry saw a decline of 4.9%, with semiconductor materials showing a slight increase of 0.4% while other sectors faced losses [2][44][47]. - Notable stock performances included Aojie Technology (+30.0%) and Chipone Technology (+27.4%), while Shengyi Electronics saw a decline of 24.3% [48].

除了反对拆分英特尔的想法外，这位前首席执行官还批评了英特尔的前任和现任董事会。他说，英 特尔董事会"对过去十年英特尔所发生的事情负有最终责任"，同时表示，下一任掌舵公司的首席执 行官应该以帕特·基辛格的成就为基础。这位前首席执行官还批评了英特尔的四位前董事会成员。 巴雷特说，尽管他们本意是好的，但他们都是学者和前政府官员，不熟悉经营半导体业务的复杂运 作。 去年 12 月刚被免去首席执行官职务的帕特·基辛格是带领英特尔实现近期技术突破的关键人物之 一，这些突破可能让英特尔与台积电平起平坐。开发和建立新芯片技术的生产需要数年时间，基辛 格在任期间推动了这一进程。最终，克雷格·巴雷特似乎认为强迫帕特·基辛格退休对英特尔来说是 一个错误的举措。他说："在我看来，更好的做法可能是解雇英特尔董事会，重新聘请帕特·基辛格 来完成他过去几年出色完成的工作。" 参考链接 https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/fire-the-intel-board-and-rehire-pat-gelsinger-argues-former-intel-ceo-craig-barrett 点这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential adjustments in NVIDIA's CoWoS packaging orders with TSMC, highlighting the cautious approach of TSMC regarding capacity expansion and the market's optimistic expectations for NVIDIA's chip production plans [1][2]. Group 1: TSMC's Capacity Expansion - TSMC's CoWoS expansion plan remains unchanged, with a gradual increase to approximately 70,000 wafers per month by December 2025 [1]. - TSMC's 5/4nm process is currently fully loaded, and NVIDIA's chip production volume has increased compared to earlier this year [1]. Group 2: NVIDIA's Production Plans - There are rumors that NVIDIA's CoWoS wafer allocation for 2025 has been revised down from over 400,000 to around 380,000, which may stem from overly optimistic expectations from market participants [2]. - The transition period between NVIDIA's B200 and B300 series products has been significantly accelerated, leading to changes in production plans that may be misinterpreted as order cuts [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Expectations - TSMC has been cautious about capacity expansion, and significant order cuts are not expected unless there is a drastic shift in industry trends [2]. - Historical context shows that during peak market sentiment, NVIDIA had requested TSMC to increase CoWoS capacity to 100,000 wafers per month, which was declined by TSMC [2].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is undergoing significant upheaval, with potential splits and acquisitions involving Intel, TSMC, and Broadcom, alongside the rise of Arm as a chip manufacturer, which will profoundly impact the semiconductor supply chain, industry dynamics, and future technological innovation [1]. Group 1: Intel's Decline and Potential Acquisition - Intel, once a leader in the semiconductor market, is facing major challenges, leading to acquisition interest from TSMC and Broadcom [3]. - Broadcom is closely monitoring Intel's chip design and marketing business, considering a potential acquisition offer, while TSMC may look to control Intel's factories as part of an investment consortium [3]. - Intel's stock surged by 16% on excitement over potential dual transactions, ultimately rising 5.3% for the week [3]. Group 2: Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Geopolitical Considerations - The complexity and international integration of the semiconductor supply chain are increasingly evident, with a shift from vertical integration to reliance on advanced foundries like TSMC [5]. - The U.S. government is pushing for domestic semiconductor manufacturing while limiting technology transfer to China, raising questions about its policies in light of potential TSMC acquisitions of Intel [5][6]. Group 3: Arm's Ambitions and Market Disruption - Arm plans to launch its own chips, marking a significant shift in its business model that could disrupt the semiconductor industry [7]. - The upcoming chips are expected to serve as CPUs for large data center servers, with production outsourced to manufacturers like TSMC [7]. - Arm's move into chip production raises concerns about potential conflicts with existing customers who rely on Arm's designs [7]. Group 4: Opportunities and Aspirations in Europe - Europe is striving to strengthen its position in the semiconductor industry, with significant investment plans announced, including a €109 billion initiative in France [8]. - The rise of RISC-V architecture poses challenges to existing chip designs from Intel, Arm, and Nvidia, creating opportunities for job creation in chip design [8]. - The competition and innovation landscape in the semiconductor industry is expected to intensify with Intel and Arm's potential divergence into chip manufacturing [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report rates the electronic industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The electronic industry experienced a decline of 4.9% in the past week, ranking 28th out of 31 sectors, while the SW electronic sub-sectors showed mixed performance with semiconductor materials up by 0.4% and others down [2][44]. - DeepSeek launched five open-source projects aimed at enhancing AI model efficiency, showcasing a competitive strategy against OpenAI's high-cost models [2][28]. - The report highlights significant advancements in AI hardware and software, indicating a potential surge in demand for domestic semiconductor chips [2][40]. Summary by Sections 1. DeepSeek Open Source Week Releases - DeepSeek announced the launch of five open-source projects to enhance AI capabilities, including FlashMLA for efficient model inference and DeepEP for improved GPU communication [5][9]. - FlashMLA achieved a data throughput of 3000 GB/s and 580 TFLOPS on the H800 platform, nearly doubling performance compared to previous models [6][8]. - DeepEP optimized GPU communication, achieving a bottleneck bandwidth of 153 GB/s for intra-node and 46 GB/s for inter-node communications [11][12]. 2. Global Industry Dynamics - NVIDIA reported a record revenue of $39.3 billion for Q4 2025, with significant growth in data center revenues [30][31]. - OpenAI launched its largest model, GPT-4.5, which is expected to enhance performance significantly but comes with a high API cost [33][34]. - Alibaba announced a massive investment of 380 billion yuan in cloud and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years, marking a significant commitment to the sector [36]. 3. Market Review - The electronic industry saw a decline of 4.9% in the past week, with semiconductor materials showing slight gains while other sectors faced losses [2][44]. - The report lists top-performing stocks in the electronic sector, with notable gains from companies like Aojie Technology (+30.0%) and Chipone Technology (+27.4%) [48]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced a decline of 11.7%, reflecting broader market challenges [51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for TSMC with a price target of NT$1500.0 [3][7]. Core Insights - The report indicates that recent adjustments in CoWoS order projections from customers like NVDA and Marvell/AWS do not reflect a demand issue, as overall CoWoS demand remains higher than TSMC's capacity to fulfill in 2025 [2][4]. - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is expected to remain tight through 2025, despite a more than double capacity expansion, driven by strong demand from AI labs and US CSPs [4][6]. - NVDA's demand for CoWoS wafers is projected to reach approximately 390k in 2025, sufficient for producing around 6 million Blackwell chips [6][7]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Dynamics - Adjustments in customer projections stem from overbooking and TSMC's push for accurate forecasts, rather than a decline in demand [4][5]. - Strong demand trends are noted for various products, including NVDA's H200s and H20s, indicating a robust market environment [4][5]. Capacity and Production Forecasts - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is projected to reach 75k wafers per month by the end of 2025, with total capacity for the year expected to be around 725k wafers [4][6]. - NVDA's CoWoS wafer demand is expected to grow by approximately 20% in 2026, supporting the production of 7.5 million Blackwell and Rubin chips [6][7]. Market Sentiment and Stock Outlook - Despite potential short-term negative sentiment due to order adjustments, the underlying demand for AI hardware remains strong [6][7]. - The report expresses a positive outlook on TSMC and its AI ecosystem, emphasizing its critical role in enabling AI technologies across various sectors [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA's recent earnings report did not meet market expectations, leading to a decline in AI stocks, with supply chain sources indicating a reduction in advanced packaging orders from TSMC [1][2]. Group 1: NVIDIA's Product and Market Dynamics - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang emphasized strong market demand for the Blackwell series, with gross margins expected to remain around 70% during the ramp-up phase [1]. - The upcoming GTC event will showcase new products like Blackwell Ultra and GB300, with expectations for faster integration based on previous experiences with GB200 [2]. - The transition from the Hopper architecture to Blackwell architecture is underway, with production challenges noted due to lower yield rates of the new CoWoS-L packaging technology [4]. Group 2: TSMC's Capacity and Order Adjustments - TSMC's advanced packaging capacity remains near full utilization, but there are indications of a potential decrease in orders as the lifecycle of NVIDIA's previous GPU generation ends [1][3]. - Reports suggest that TSMC's CoWoS average monthly capacity has dropped to 62,500 wafers, below the expected 70,000 wafers, with NVIDIA's monthly orders also reduced from approximately 42,000 to 39,000 wafers [3]. - Despite rumors of order cuts, TSMC has denied these claims, stating that demand for CoWoS remains strong and that any perceived reductions may be due to process upgrades and product transitions [2][3]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Industry Trends - TSMC is ramping up production at its newly acquired facilities to meet the growing demand for advanced packaging technologies like CoWoS-L and SoIC [4]. - The industry anticipates that the new Rubin GPU and Vera CPU developments will contribute positively to market dynamics, with production expected to begin early next year [2].