Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the gold industry stocks are experiencing a strong rebound, with significant increases in the stock prices of major companies in the sector, indicating a positive market sentiment towards gold investments [1][2]. - As of February 11, 2026, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) rose by 2.97%, with key stocks such as Zijin Mining International and WanGuo Gold Group increasing by 8.48% and 8.45% respectively [1]. - The gold stocks ETF (159322) also saw a rise of 3.16%, closing at 2.09 yuan, reflecting the overall positive trend in the gold market [1]. Group 2 - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index comprises 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, which collectively represent the performance of the gold industry in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [1]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 61.69% of the total index, indicating a concentration of investment in a few key players within the gold sector [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of gold prices and related stocks, with COMEX gold futures trading around $5,080 and London gold at approximately $5,060 [1] - Gold-related ETFs have shown significant gains, with the 华夏 Gold ETF (518850) up 0.61%, the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650) up 3.16%, and the Gold Stocks ETF (159562) up 3.41%, indicating a positive market sentiment towards gold investments [1] - Six gold-listed companies, including Zijin Mining and Zhongjin Gold, have released earnings forecasts for 2025, with Zijin Mining expecting a net profit increase of 59%-62% year-on-year, and Zhongjin Gold projecting a Q4 net profit growth of 14%-75% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2 - The 华夏 Gold ETF (518850) and Gold Stocks ETF (159562) have a combined management and custody fee of 0.2%, which is among the lowest in their category, making it more cost-effective for investors to participate in the gold market [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing short-term pressure due to pre-holiday sentiment, but there are structural opportunities in specific sub-sectors [2] - The global non-ferrous metals industry is expected to enter a "recovery cycle with supply constraints" from 2026 to 2027, with copper and aluminum prices shifting from supply constraints and loose liquidity in 2026 to demand recovery in 2027 [2] - The supply growth of electrolytic aluminum is projected to be only 1.7% in 2026, with a supply gap of over 800,000 tons; electrolytic copper supply growth is 2.4% while demand growth is 3.3%, indicating a shift from surplus to shortage [2] Group 2 - Tungsten is expected to see a continued supply-demand shortage due to China's mining control policies, leading to sustained price increases from 2026 to 2027 [3] - Rare earth permanent magnets are experiencing tightening supply-side integration, with improving demand expectations for exports, indicating a fundamental improvement [3] - Cobalt is projected to face a global shortage due to supply reduction policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with strong upward momentum in the short term [3] Group 3 - Lithium is benefiting from the rising demand for energy storage batteries and domestic supply disruptions, potentially at the bottom of its cycle [3] - Nickel is expected to clear supply issues from the second half of 2026 to 2027 due to Indonesia's quota policies, with prices likely to rise if economic recovery boosts stainless steel demand [3] - Magnesium is gaining traction in the lightweighting sector of new energy vehicles due to its higher cost-effectiveness compared to aluminum, indicating improved industry sentiment [3] Group 4 - The non-ferrous metals ETF (512400) closely tracks the CSI Shenyin Wanguo Non-Ferrous Metals Index, which selects 50 listed companies to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, China Aluminum, and Huayou Cobalt, among others [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant fluctuations in gold prices driven by market concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding Iran [1][2] - The Taikang ETF (159163) tracking the CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index (931892) has shown strong performance, with a 3.08% increase in the index and notable gains in constituent stocks such as Tungsten High-Tech (up 8.17%) and Xiamen Tungsten (up 6.59%) [1] - Citic Securities maintains an optimistic outlook for precious and nonferrous metal prices for the year 2026, despite recent volatility in gold prices [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities notes that the current market is characterized by a "Wash trade" environment, leading to low volatility in precious metals, with gold prices exhibiting high volatility [2] - The CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index comprises 40 listed companies with nonferrous metal mineral resources, reflecting the overall performance of the sector [2] - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index account for 53.28% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [2]

证券分析师 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.02.11） 固定收益研究 净融资额继续增加，信用利差整体走阔——信用债周报 行业研究 春节假期临近，关注节后需求——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2026/02/11） 晨会纪要（2026/02/11） 固定收益研究 净融资额继续增加，信用利差整体走阔——信用债周报 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 本期（2 月 2 日至 2 月 8 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数上行，整体变化幅度为-1 BP 至 4 BP。本 期信用债发行规模环比增长，企业债保持零发行，公司债、中期票据、定向工具发行金额增加，短期融资 券发行金额减少；信用债净融资额环比增加，短期融资券净融资额减少，其余品种净融资额增加，企业债 净融资额为负，其余品种 ...

Core Viewpoint - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to significantly influence prices, with projections indicating further increases in gold prices by 2026 due to heightened geopolitical risks, weakening dollar credit, and uncertainties in monetary and fiscal policies from the Federal Reserve [1][2][12]. Industry Fundamentals - Since 2025, factors such as tariff frictions, weakening dollar credit, and geopolitical tensions have driven gold prices up, with an annual increase exceeding 60% [1][4]. - The financial attributes of gold are becoming more pronounced, with expectations that gold prices will continue to rise in 2026 due to ongoing geopolitical risks and uncertainties in U.S. monetary policy [2][12]. - The overall credit risk in the gold industry remains low, supported by the financial characteristics of gold and the improving profitability of gold companies [1][2][12]. Supply Dynamics - Gold supply has remained stable, with limited increases in mine production since 2025, while the recycling of gold has seen a slowdown despite rising prices [14][20]. - The global gold supply primarily comes from mining and recycling, with mining accounting for about 75% of total supply, and the elasticity of supply is relatively low [14][20]. - In 2025, gold production in Africa and North America has compensated for declines in Latin America, with significant increases in production expected from new projects [16][18]. Demand Trends - The demand for gold has shifted towards investment, with jewelry consumption declining due to high prices; central bank purchases and gold ETFs have seen increased demand [21][23][28]. - In 2025, global jewelry consumption fell by 20.18%, while investment demand, particularly in gold bars and coins, has risen significantly [23][24][28]. - Central banks have continued to increase their gold reserves, with net purchases reaching 633.6 tons in 2025, although the pace of buying has slowed due to high prices [26][28]. Financial Performance - Gold companies have seen significant increases in revenue and profitability due to rising gold prices, with total revenue for sample companies reaching 584.44 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.49% [32][35]. - The net profit for these companies has also increased, with a total of 632.82 billion yuan reported for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a growth of 57.89% [35]. - The operating cash flow of gold companies has improved significantly, with a 38.45% increase in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to the previous year [36][41]. Investment Activities - Many gold companies have engaged in mergers and acquisitions to expand their resource base, which has led to an increase in total debt, although the overall capital structure remains stable [39][40]. - The total debt of sample companies reached 3,088.15 billion yuan by September 2025, with an average debt ratio of 47.56% [40][41]. - Despite the increase in debt, the companies' ability to cover short-term liabilities has improved due to rising cash flows from operations [41].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen further declines in prices, but the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts this year are expected to support precious metal prices moving forward [2][3]. Precious Metals - Gold price this week was $4,948.00 per ounce, down $33.85 from January 30, a decrease of -0.68% [2]. - Silver price this week was $74.94 per ounce, down $28.25 from January 30, a decrease of -27.38% [2]. - The Federal Reserve officials have expressed views on the need for interest rate cuts this year, with expectations of multiple cuts [2]. Copper and Aluminum - Demand weakened as the Chinese New Year approaches, leading to stable prices for copper and aluminum [4][6]. - LME copper closed at $12,900 per ton, down $540 from January 30, a decrease of -4.02% [4]. - SHFE copper closed at ¥99,810 per ton, down ¥3,360 from January 30, a decrease of -3.26% [4]. - Domestic aluminum price was ¥23,110 per ton, down ¥1,530 from January 30 [5]. Tin - Domestic refined tin price was ¥356,660 per ton, down ¥66,970 from January 30, a decrease of -15.81% [7]. - Inventory levels indicate a tightening supply situation, but short-term demand remains weak [7]. Antimony - Domestic antimony ingot price was ¥160,000 per ton, unchanged from January 30 [8]. - Demand feedback is average, and prices are expected to remain stable [8]. Industry Ratings and Investment Strategy - Gold industry maintains a "recommended" investment rating due to the Fed's rate cut cycle [9]. - Copper industry also maintains a "recommended" investment rating due to ongoing tight supply [10]. - Aluminum, tin, and antimony industries maintain "recommended" investment ratings based on supply dynamics [11]. Recommended Stocks - Gold industry recommendations include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and China National Gold [12]. - Copper industry recommendations include Zijin Mining and Western Mining [12]. - Aluminum industry recommendations include Shenhuo Co. and Yunnan Aluminum [12]. - Tin industry recommendations include Tin Industry Co. and Huaxi Nonferrous [12].

智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，有色金属板块重点公司25Q4业绩增速不一。贵金属板块当 前估值处于历史中枢下沿，板块具备持续修复的动力及空间。铜供给相对刚性，价格中枢有望持续抬 高;铝供需格局持续趋紧，价格有望延续长期上行趋势。小金属方面，镍价中枢有望上行，锂价中枢稳 中有升，而钴价预计维持强势。降息后有色金属板块估值中枢有望上移，推荐供需格局稳定的新能源制 造业。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 铜：中国有色金属工业协会副秘书长段绍甫在新闻发布会上表示，除了储备精炼铜之外，也可研究将贸 易量大、容易变现的铜精矿纳入储备范围，同时，将扩大国家铜战略储备规模，探索进行商业储备机 制，通过财政贴息等方式选择国有骨干企业试行商业储备。短期铜矿生产扰动较大、非美库存紧张下预 计铜价偏强，基本面支撑扎实，长期电网投资增长、AI数据中心增长等，叠加铜供给相对刚性，价格 中枢有望持续抬高，建议关注紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、铜陵有色、金诚信、西部矿业、河钢资源。铝：国 内产能天花板限制下供需格局持续趋紧，铝价有望延续长期上行趋势，建议关注一体化完备标的(南山 铝业、天山铝业、中国宏桥、中国铝业、新疆众和)、以及弹性标的(云铝股份、 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of the Invesco ETF (560290) in the non-ferrous metals sector, with a current opening price of 0.948 yuan and a 0.00% change [1] - The major holdings of the Invesco ETF include Zijin Mining, which opened up by 0.91%, and other companies like China Aluminum and Shandong Gold, which also showed positive movements [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, and since its establishment on January 26, 2026, it has recorded a return of -5.23% [1] Group 2 - The fund is managed by Invesco Great Wall Fund Management Co., with the fund manager being Gong Lili [1] - The article provides a detailed list of the opening price changes for various stocks within the ETF, indicating a mixed performance among the holdings [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [8]. Core Insights - The steel market is expected to weaken due to seasonal factors, with a focus on demand recovery after the Spring Festival [19][20]. - Copper prices may rise if demand improves post-holiday, despite current inventory accumulation [40]. - The aluminum sector is influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, with a focus on demand recovery after the Spring Festival [46]. - Gold prices are supported by geopolitical risks, with potential upward pressure from U.S. Federal Reserve policies [52]. - The rare earth market is expected to maintain tight supply conditions, supporting prices for praseodymium and neodymium [66]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Steel production is declining as companies prepare for the Spring Festival, with total inventory increasing [19][21]. - As of February 6, the total steel inventory was 13.39 million tons, up 4.36% week-on-week, but down 19.42% year-on-year [28]. - The average price index for steel on February 6 was 3,414.24 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous week [37]. Copper Industry - Copper prices have decreased, but new orders are increasing, indicating seasonal demand characteristics [40]. - As of February 6, LME copper prices were $12,800/ton, down 3.96% from January 30 [43]. Aluminum Industry - Domestic bauxite supply is sufficient, but aluminum processing companies are reducing production due to price volatility and regulatory pressures [46]. - As of February 6, LME aluminum prices were $3,000/ton, down 2.09% from January 30 [47]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic data are influencing gold prices, which are expected to find support from these factors [52]. - As of February 6, COMEX gold prices were $4,988.60/oz, up 1.65% from January 30 [52]. Rare Earths - The supply of praseodymium and neodymium is expected to remain tight, supporting price stability [66]. - As of February 6, the price of praseodymium oxide was 757,500 yuan/ton, up 1.20% from January 30 [66].