原标题：十分钟再谈预制菜之十八——国标出台，预制菜"涨潮"，包装产业"弄潮"？ 一、一个盒子的远征 一位山东母亲从快递箱里取出从佛山寄来的"佛跳墙"预制菜礼盒。撕开保温袋，翻开硬质卡盒，掀开铝 箔封口，一盅鲍鱼海参，静静躺在定制瓷盅里。十五分钟后，金汤翻滚，满屋馥郁。 二、买椟还珠，从另一个角度是对还是错？ 两千年前，楚人卖珠，"为木兰之柜，熏以桂椒，缀以珠玉"。结果呢？郑人买其椟，还其珠。 韩非子讲这个故事，本意是讽喻世人舍本逐末。但站在今天往回看，我们会发现，那个楚人才是真正的 商业天才。因为他懂得，消费者打开包装之前，对产品全部的想象，都来自那个盒子。郑人不是蠢，他 是被那个盒子征服了。这个故事，对预制菜包装有啥启发？ 2026年，全球食品包装市场规模预计达4823.8亿美元，同比增长约5.5%。亚太地区以超过40%的份额成 为全球最大市场，中国是其中最大的引擎。 但这只是数字。数字背后，是每一天十几亿次的开箱体验，是每一餐饭从工厂到餐桌的漫长旅程，是每 一道预制菜从"能吃"到"好吃"的最后一道防线。 包装产业的价值，并不完全体现在产值规模上，也体现在风险控制能力上。如果没有可靠的包装结构， 冷链中的温 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pet economy sector, highlighting its rapid growth during the Spring Festival [4][7]. Core Insights - The pet consumption during the Spring Festival has seen significant growth, with a 20%+ year-on-year increase in searches for "New Year pet gift boxes" on Tmall. The sales of pet clothing surged by 330%, and pet New Year's dinners increased by 290% [7]. - The report emphasizes the comprehensive nature of pet services, with a 46% month-on-month increase in pet boarding demand. The expansion of pet transport services on high-speed trains and airlines is also noted [7]. - Upcoming pet exhibitions in March are expected to further stimulate market interest, with major brands likely to launch new products [7]. Summary by Sections Important Industry Data Overview - The agricultural sector index stands at 2,858.1, with a year-on-year increase of 14.28%. The wholesale price index for agricultural products is at 129.6, reflecting a 4.95% year-on-year increase [10]. - The average price of live pigs is 12.3 yuan/kg, down 15.81% year-on-year, while the average price of piglets is 471.0 yuan/head, down 25.24% year-on-year [10]. Pig Farming Sector - The report anticipates a seasonal decline in pig prices post-Spring Festival, with expectations of low prices leading to potential losses in farming [5][12]. - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional recommendations in the agricultural product supply chain [5]. Poultry Sector - The report discusses the white feather broiler market, noting a decrease in chick prices and stable prices for broiler meat [19][20]. - The average price of broiler chicks is reported at 2.4 yuan/chick, with a 4.35% increase month-on-month [10]. Feed Sector - The report indicates stable feed prices, with corn prices at 2,372.2 yuan/ton and soybean meal prices at 3,167.7 yuan/ton [10][30]. - The analysis highlights the fluctuations in import prices for soybeans and corn, impacting the feed sector [32]. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with Muyuan Foods projected at 2.54 yuan for 2025 and 4.81 yuan for 2026, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [36]. - Other companies such as Wens Foodstuffs and Petty Holdings also receive "Overweight" ratings, indicating strong growth potential [36].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][45] Core Viewpoints - In January, the total slaughter volume of 18 sample pig companies increased by 12.54% year-on-year but decreased by 11.15% month-on-month, totaling 18.02 million heads [6][9] - The average selling price of commercial pigs for 15 sample pig companies in January was 12.58 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 19.30% but an increase of 8.83% month-on-month [13][14] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs in January was 121.41 kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.82% and a month-on-month increase of 1.42% [16][17] - The industry is experiencing a return to losses in breeding profits before the festival, with the average weight of pigs still at historically high levels [19][20] - The current valuation level of the pig farming sector is relatively low, with sufficient safety margins, and the cost advantages of leading companies like Muyuan are expected to expand [34][35] Summary by Sections Slaughter Volume - In January, the total slaughter volume of 18 sample pig companies was 18.02 million heads, with a year-on-year increase of 12.54% and a month-on-month decrease of 11.15% [6][9][11] Selling Price - The average selling price of commercial pigs in January was 12.58 yuan/kg, down 19.30% year-on-year but up 8.83% month-on-month [13][14][16] Average Weight - The average weight of slaughtered pigs was 121.41 kg in January, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.82% and a month-on-month increase of 1.42% [16][17][19] Industry Overview - The industry is facing a return to losses in breeding profits, with the average weight of pigs remaining high historically [19][20][34] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a forward-looking layout at the bottom, emphasizing efficiency over growth and quality over scale, with a focus on companies like Muyuan, Wens, Dekang, and Shennong [33][34][35]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The consumption sector is experiencing a mild recovery, with notable changes in consumption structure and patterns, particularly during the Spring Festival period. The government has initiated special activities to stimulate consumption and promote reasonable price increases [1][2] - There is a significant increase in consumer traffic and spending in key retail and dining sectors, although the market remains skeptical about a full recovery. For instance, the essential and non-essential consumption indices in Hong Kong saw declines during the Spring Festival [1][2] - New consumption trends are emerging, driven by smaller family structures and increased car ownership, leading to a rise in self-driving travel and experiential consumption [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Spring Festival Consumption Monitoring - During the Spring Festival from February 2 to 20, 2026, cross-regional mobility increased by 5.1% compared to the same period in 2025, with significant growth in railway (4.1%), waterway (21.2%), and civil aviation (5.9%) passenger volumes [6][7] - The average ticket price for flights rose by 1.6% compared to 2025 and by 5.9% compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 [6] 2. Cultural and Tourism Consumption - The increase in car ownership and changes in population structure have led to a shift towards "self-pleasing" consumption during the Spring Festival, with a notable rise in self-driving trips and experiential activities [11] - The trend of "reverse New Year" is growing, where young people invite their parents to cities for celebrations, reflecting a shift away from traditional family gatherings [11] - The tourism sector saw a surge in hotel bookings in regions like Chaoshan, with Shantou experiencing a 186% increase in bookings compared to the previous year [11] 3. Hainan Duty-Free Consumption - Hainan's duty-free sales reached 9.7 billion yuan during the first four days of the Spring Festival, marking a 15.8% increase year-on-year [15][17] - Sales in Sanya's duty-free shops on the first day of the Lunar New Year hit 2.04 billion yuan, setting a record for the day [15] 4. Spring Festival Movie Box Office - The box office for the 2026 Spring Festival period reached 4.858 billion yuan, with a significant drop compared to the previous year, attributed to fewer blockbuster films [18][21] 5. Consumer Price Index (CPI) - The CPI showed signs of recovery, with year-on-year increases of 0.2%, 0.7%, and 0.8% in October, November, and December 2025, respectively. The growth was driven by rising prices in fresh produce and household goods [25]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月22日 2026年02月23日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（195） 优于大市 奶牛存栏节后有望维持去化，石化链涨价或带动橡胶价格 原奶：奶牛去化有望延续，原奶价格 2026 年或迎拐点。2026 年 2 月 5 日， 国内主产区原奶均价为 3.04 元/kg，周度环比持平，同比-2.56%。 周度农产品跟踪：年内肉奶周期有望共振反转，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。2026 年 2 月 14 日生猪价格 11.61 元/公斤，周环比-2.60%；7kg 仔猪价格约 357.14 元/头，周环比-0.13%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。2026 年 2 月 14 日，鸡苗价格 2.33 元/羽，周环比+18.27%；毛鸡价格 7.32 元/公斤，周环比+0.27%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。2026 年 2 月 10 日浙江快大 三黄鸡/青脚麻鸡/雪山草鸡斤价分别为 4.7/4.4/5.6 元，周环比分别 +2.17%/-6.38%/+0.00%。 豆粕：估值处于历史低位，关注潜在天气或贸易端催化。2026 年 2 月 ...

一、一个盒子的远征 一位山东母亲从快递箱里取出从佛山寄来的"佛跳墙"预制菜礼盒。撕开保温袋，翻开硬质卡盒，掀开铝 箔封口，一盅鲍鱼海参，静静躺在定制瓷盅里。十五分钟后，金汤翻滚，满屋馥郁。 孩子问：妈，这盅留着吗？ 母亲说：留着。 那个印着品牌Logo的瓷盅，从年夜饭桌转移到茶几上，成了装瓜子的容器。几个月后，它可能会出现 在孩子的大学宿舍里，成了书桌上的笔筒。 一个瓷盅的远征，比一道菜走得更远。 这就是包装，以及它的力量。 二、买椟还珠，从另一个角度是对还是错？ 两千年前，楚人卖珠，"为木兰之柜，熏以桂椒，缀以珠玉"。结果呢？郑人买其椟，还其珠。 韩非子讲这个故事，本意是讽喻世人舍本逐末。但站在今天往回看，我们会发现，那个楚人才是真正的 商业天才。因为他懂得，消费者打开包装之前，对产品全部的想象，都来自那个盒子。郑人不是蠢，他 是被那个盒子征服了。 这个故事，对预制菜包装有啥启发？ 2026年，全球食品包装市场规模预计达4823.8亿美元，同比增长约5.5%。亚太地区以超过40%的份额成 为全球最大市场，中国是其中最大的引擎。 但这只是数字。 数字背后，是每一天十几亿次的开箱体验，是每一餐饭从工厂到餐桌的漫 ...

Group 1: Market Trends Post-Spring Festival - The Shanghai Composite Index shows a significant upward trend after the Spring Festival, with probabilities of increases over 5, 10, 20, and 30 days being 75%, 70%, 80%, and 60% respectively, and median gains of 1.64%, 1.32%, 9.45%, and 3.88% [1] - Over the past decade, the coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and defense industries have performed well in the month following the Spring Festival, with the computer industry leading in the last two years [1] Group 2: Industry Performance Data - Historical data shows varying performance across industries during the Spring Festival period, with coal, environmental protection, and agriculture showing notable gains in specific years, such as coal in 2016 with a maximum gain of 10.34% and agriculture in 2019 with a maximum gain of 19.78% [2] - The report indicates that the coal industry is expected to see a significant increase in production capacity in 2026, with an anticipated rise of 0.7 billion tons, while also highlighting a potential reduction in capacity by 1.5 billion tons due to policy changes [2] Group 3: Agricultural Sector Insights - The agricultural sector is projected to experience a gradual recovery in pig prices by 2026, driven by a reduction in breeding sow capacity, which is expected to improve profitability for leading pig farming companies [3] - The report emphasizes opportunities in the poultry sector, particularly for leading chicken farming companies, and highlights the growth potential in the pet market [3] Group 4: Defense Industry Outlook - The defense industry is poised for growth in 2026, driven by geopolitical factors and advancements in military technology, with a focus on precision-guided munitions, unmanned systems, and networked battlefield capabilities [4] - Key recommendations include investments in missile weaponry, new aviation equipment, unmanned systems, and commercial aerospace sectors, with specific companies highlighted for their strategic positions within these industries [5]

Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index shows a significant "spring market" trend with a 75% probability of rising in the first five days after the Spring Festival, and a median increase of 1.64% [1] - Over the past decade, the coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and military industries have performed well in the month following the Spring Festival, with the computer industry leading in the last two years [1] Industry Performance - In the past ten years, various industries have shown different performances post-Spring Festival, with coal, environmental protection, national defense, agriculture, and steel industries having notable fluctuations in their weekly and monthly gains [2] - The coal industry is expected to see a significant increase in production capacity in 2026, with an anticipated rise of 70 million tons in raw coal output, while policies may lead to a reduction of 150 million tons in capacity [2] Agricultural Sector Insights - The pig breeding sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in prices and profitability by 2026 due to ongoing capacity reduction in breeding sows [3] - The poultry farming sector is also expected to improve, with opportunities for leading companies in the meat chicken breeding market [3] Defense and Aerospace Industry - The defense industry is poised for growth in 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions and advancements in military technology, with a focus on precision-guided munitions and unmanned systems [4] - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to experience a boom, with several new rocket launches planned and advancements in reusable technology [4] Recommended Companies - In the defense sector, companies such as North Navigation, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, and Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group are highlighted for their strategic positions in precision-guided munitions, new aircraft development, and unmanned systems [5] - In the commercial aerospace sector, Aerospace Electric and Guobo Electronics are recommended for their roles in providing critical components for satellite and rocket technologies [5]

正月初五，俗称"破五"，是迎财神的日子。很多经商的人，都习惯在这天开门营业，图个好彩头。这一 天，河南的民营企业家代表，被请到郑州，连续两年在正月初五参加企业家"餐叙"。 去年河南GDP达到6.66万亿元、增长5.6%，增速居全国第3位、经济大省第1位、中部六省第1位，是 2019年以来完成年度目标任务最好的年份，其中民营经济功不可没。最新统计数据显示，河南全省经营 主体1160.5万户，其中95%以上是民营。河南省政府工作报告显示，2025年，河南新增民营经营主体达 370万户。 2025年8月，全国工商联发布的"2025中国民营企业500强"榜单中，河南共有15家企业上榜，洛阳栾川钼 业以约2130亿元的营收总额排名第30位，牧原集团排名第63位，营收总额约为1429亿元。 入围500强的河南企业还有伊电控股集团有限公司（159位）、河南双汇投资发展股份有限公司（204 位）、河南金利金铅集团有限公司（206位）、郑州中瑞实业集团有限公司（232位）、济源市万洋冶炼 （集团）有限公司（254位）、河南豫联能源集团有限责任公司（276位）、郑州宇通企业集团（279 位）、河南龙成集团有限公司（398位）、河 ...

农历正月初五，红灯笼还挂着，春联还是新的。路上走亲访友的人提着礼品，脚步匆匆，年味还没散， 但日子已经往前赶了。在郑州，省委、省政府主要领导与我省民营企业家代表餐叙交流，聊的是过去一 年的打拼，议的是新一年的奔头。这场连续两年的"新春之约"，没有客套寒暄，图的就是个坦诚相见， 有啥说啥。 责任编辑： 秦臻 春风已度黄河岸，策马扬鞭正当时。政府营造好环境，企业练好真内功，政企同心往前奔，河南民营经 济的又一个春天，就在这踏踏实实的脚步里。（李晓星） 民营经济强，河南经济才会强。回望2025年，全省生产总值迈上6.66万亿元台阶，增速领跑经济大省 ——这份成绩单上，浸润着广大民营企业家的汗水。牧原集团三十年只做养猪这一件事，把"畜头肉 尾"的文章做深做透，成为全国首家"A+H"生猪养殖企业；龙佰集团围绕钛产业一路深耕，从地方小厂 成长为全球钛业龙头；蜜雪冰城靠着"供应链+品牌IP"的创新模式，把一杯杯奶茶卖到了全球；卫龙从 一根辣条起步，带起了从种植到物流的全产业链……这些企业或许起点不同、赛道各异，但都有一个共 同特点：沉得下心、守得住根。正是千千万万这样的民营企业，撑起了河南经济的底气。 "十五五"开局之年， ...