Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the extended exchange period for the 2026 Year of the Horse commemorative coins and banknotes, highlighting the high demand and market dynamics surrounding these collectibles [1][5][12]. Group 1: Exchange Details - Several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank, have announced the extension of the exchange period for the 2026 commemorative coins and banknotes, primarily for those who successfully made reservations but did not complete the exchange during the centralized period [1]. - The new deadlines for exchanges vary by region, with some banks extending the deadline to February 2, while others have set it to January 31 or February 1 [1]. Group 2: Market Demand and Trading - The 2026 Year of the Horse commemorative coins and banknotes have been highly sought after since their announcement on December 22, 2025, leading to a rush for reservations that resulted in system congestion and many users unable to secure their orders [5][6]. - The secondary market has seen significant price inflation, with some sellers listing commemorative banknotes at prices ranging from 1,000 to 3,000 yuan for a face value of 400 yuan, indicating a premium of up to 6.5 times [8]. - The cultural significance and artistic design of the commemorative items contribute to their popularity, with collectors and buyers motivated by both cultural appreciation and personal milestones [12]. Group 3: Exchange Progress - As of January 26, the exchange rates for the 2026 commemorative coins and banknotes varied by region, with Beijing achieving a 95.34% exchange rate for coins and 98.02% for banknotes, while Shenzhen reported lower rates of 62.46% and 80.10%, respectively [12].

Group 1: Dividend Strategy Outlook for 2026 - The dividend strategy in 2025 significantly underperformed the market, primarily due to the emergence of new growth sectors like AI, which shifted market focus from dividend yield (d) to growth rate (g) from 2022 to mid-2024[2] - For 2026, the core judgment on whether dividend strategies can achieve excess returns hinges on whether the market continues to prioritize marginal changes in fundamentals[2] - With a low macro risk environment for AI investments and a recovery in corporate earnings expected, the focus may remain on growth rates rather than dividend yields, making excess returns from dividend strategies unlikely[2] Group 2: A-Shares vs. Hong Kong Stocks - Since April 2024, Hong Kong's low-volatility dividend index has outperformed A-shares by 49%, driven mainly by the industrial, financial, and energy sectors[3] - Despite the higher dividend yield of Hong Kong stocks, the PE valuation levels are now comparable to A-shares, indicating limited room for further convergence[3] - The relative performance of Hong Kong stocks is attributed more to stock selection rather than industry allocation, with financials, energy, and industrials contributing the most to excess returns[3] Group 3: Constructing the 2026 Dividend Portfolio - The 2026 dividend strategy should focus on sectors benefiting from AI investment, manufacturing recovery, and domestic consumption recovery, with traditional manufacturing and resource sectors expected to have the broadest benefits[3] - A scoring system combining payout ratios and stability with profitability metrics (ROE) is proposed to optimize sector allocation for dividends[3] - Recommended sectors for increased allocation include insurance, textile manufacturing, and logistics, while sectors with high potential but lower success rates, like banks and construction, should be considered for long-term investment[3]

港股三大指数集体收涨，恒生科技指数一度冲高至1.6%，最终收涨1.35%重新站上27000点，国企指数 涨1.07%，恒生科技指数涨0.5%。具体盘面上，权重科技股走势继续分化，阿里巴巴涨近3%，腾讯、小 米、快手飘红，京东跌超2%，美团、百度小幅下跌；保险股、银行股拉升走强助力大市回暖，其中中 国人寿涨近9%，工商银行、农业银行、建设银行皆有涨幅，汇丰控股、中烟香港再创历史新高；黄金 股部分继续上涨，紫金矿业、紫金黄金国际均大涨再创历史新高；重型机械股继续活跃，中国重汽、三 一国际齐创新高；光伏股、苹果概念股、港口及海运股、AI应用概念股普遍上涨。另一方面，钢铁 股、铜业股、煤炭股全天疲弱，其中，中国罕王大跌近11%，汽车股、家电股、水务股多数下跌。(格 隆汇) ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report suggests that the dividend strategy may struggle to achieve excess returns in 2026 due to a shift in market focus from dividend yield to growth rates, particularly influenced by the AI industry and improving corporate earnings in China [2][11][33] - The report indicates that the dividend strategy underperformed the market significantly in 2025, primarily due to the emergence of new growth sectors like AI, a decline in traditional manufacturing reliance, and a rise in market risk appetite [11][33] - It is noted that while the dividend strategy may not yield excess returns, it remains a crucial component for many investors as a stabilizing element in their portfolios, especially during market volatility [2][33] Group 2 - The analysis reveals that the Hong Kong stock market's low-volatility dividend index significantly outperformed the A-share market's equivalent, with a relative return of 49% attributed mainly to the industrial, financial, and energy sectors [3][36] - Despite the higher dividend yield in Hong Kong stocks, the report highlights that the absolute PE valuation levels between Hong Kong and A-share dividend stocks are now comparable, indicating limited room for further convergence [3][37] - The report emphasizes that the performance of the Hong Kong dividend stocks is primarily driven by individual stock selection rather than sector allocation, with financials, energy, and industrials contributing the most to relative performance [3][44] Group 3 - The report outlines three key themes for constructing and optimizing the dividend portfolio for 2026: the impact of overseas AI investments, resource protectionism in emerging markets, and the recovery of domestic consumption [3][22] - It suggests that resource and traditional manufacturing dividends will benefit the most from these themes, while financial dividends may only recover post-deflation [3][22] - A scoring system based on yield and profitability is proposed to identify sectors with the best potential for dividend growth, categorizing industries into four quadrants based on their risk and return profiles [3][24]

此次马年贺岁币钞自发行以来便备受追捧。2025年12月22日央行公告发行计划后，市场关注度持续攀 升。2026年1月13日晚，线上预约通道正式开启，其中马年币预约时间为22:00，马年钞为22:30，每人 可各预约20份，预约周期虽长达一天有余，但多数银行渠道刚一开放便陷入"秒空"情境。 关联内容 马年币钞预约"秒空"，二手市场报价疯涨六倍 2026 年马年新春临近，北京、深圳、内蒙古、山西、黑龙江等多地的工商银行（601398）、建设银行 （601939）、交通银行（601328）等承办银行陆续发布公告，宣布延长 2026 年贺岁纪念币、纪念钞兑 换期限，明确延期细节与兑换规则，全力保障公众兑换权益。此次延期主要针对全国统一集中兑换期结 束后，部分已预约成功但未完成兑换的币钞。 目前各地延期安排已明确：工商银行内蒙古自治区分行、交通银行内蒙古自治区分行、交通银行海南省 分行及山西、黑龙江两省将兑换截止日延至2月2日；工商银行深圳市分行延长至2月1日；工商银行北京 市分行、建设银行北京市分行延长至1月31日。此次延期兑换仅面向1月13日至14日预约成功且通过核 查、未在集中兑换期完成兑换的公众，需持预约时登记 ...

Core Viewpoint - The comprehensive financing cost of the real economy continues to decline, leading to a decrease in banks' net interest margins, raising concerns about where to invest in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2][3] Group 1: Deposit Rates and Trends - Since the beginning of the year, deposit rates for large certificates of deposit (CDs) have dropped significantly, with over 40 banks reporting rates below 1% for terms under one year and many three-year rates below 2% [1][6] - The average three-year large CD rate among the six major banks is around 1.55%, down from over 3% three years ago, indicating a substantial decline in long-term deposit yields [1][6] - Smaller banks are also experiencing a convergence in rates, with some three-month products recently issued at rates between 0.93% and 0.95% [1][6] Group 2: Net Interest Margin and Banking Strategy - As of Q3 2025, the net interest margin for commercial banks has narrowed to a historical low of 1.42%, with large banks at 1.31%, reflecting ongoing pressure on profitability [2][7] - The reduction in high-cost liabilities, such as large CDs, is seen as a strategy to stabilize net interest margins amid declining financing costs for the real economy [2][7] Group 3: Future of Deposits and Market Reactions - A significant amount of deposits, estimated at around 50 trillion yuan, will reach maturity in 2026, raising questions about potential "deposit migration" as these funds face re-pricing [3][8] - Despite the low rates, many depositors are expected to keep their funds in the banking system due to their preference for stable returns and low risk, with a high deposit retention rate projected to remain above 90% [3][8] - Financial institutions are encouraged to balance business development with risk management as they navigate the upcoming re-pricing of deposits [4][9]

我有个朋友在银行工作，最近她给我讲了个扎心的故事。她来柜台的一位客户，老爷爷手里拿着三年前存的定期存款到期单，当时利率是百分之三点多，这 一次的利息足足有万把块钱。结果到期了去续存，银行给的新利率只有百分之一点五多，这一差，利息就少了将近五千块。老爷爷就坐在那儿一个劲地叹 气，说这钱放银行真的越来越不划算了。朋友问他怎么办，老爷爷说找不到地方存。这个场景在最近一两个月特别常见，因为从二零二六年二月开始，一场 巨大的定期存款到期潮马上就来了。 这不是危言耸听。根据中金公司的测算数据，今年将有约七十五万亿元的居民定期存款陆续到期，其中一年期以上的就有六十七万亿元。国信证券的预测是 五十七万亿元，华泰证券说的是五十万亿元。不管是哪个数字，咱们就能想象有多少人家里的钱在等着重新安排。二零二六年被业内称为近年少见的存款到 期大年，这个名号还是挺吓人的。 现在再看看银行怎么说的。工商银行、建设银行这些国有大行，一年期定期存款利率已经降到了百分之一点一，三年期是百分之一点五五。如果你存个十万 块钱定三年，一年的利息才差不多一千五，十年前这样的钱能拿到将近三千块。算上这些年的通货膨胀，你存银行的钱实际上是在贬值的。更过分的是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The exchange of the 2026 Year of the Horse commemorative coins and banknotes has garnered significant market attention, with various regions extending the exchange period due to incomplete transactions [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Period and Regulations - The People's Bank of China announced that the centralized exchange period for the 2026 commemorative coins and banknotes is from January 20 to January 26, 2026 [1]. - Several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Bank of Communications, have announced extensions for the exchange period, with specific arrangements for customers who successfully made reservations [1][2]. - The extension for exchanges varies by region, with some banks in Inner Mongolia and Hainan extending the deadline to February 2, while banks in Beijing and Shenzhen have set different deadlines [2]. Group 2: Exchange Progress Data - As of January 26, 2026, the exchange completion rates for the 2026 commemorative coins and banknotes vary by region: Beijing has a completion rate of 95.34% for coins and 98.02% for banknotes [3]. - In Shenzhen, the exchange rates are 62.46% for coins and 80.10% for banknotes, while in Hainan, the rates are 70.22% for coins and 85.28% for banknotes [3].

1月27日上午，A股三大股指涨跌不一。截至午间收盘，沪指报4134.03点，微涨0.03%；深证成指走弱，跌0.37%；创业板指涨0.44%。 贵金属板块持续走高，相关个股再次涨停。 个股方面，湖南黄金、招金黄金再次涨停，均录得2连板，晓程科技、盛达资源、四川黄金、金徽股份等涨幅均超7%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 总市值1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002155 | 湖南黄金 | 27.80 | 10.01% | 434亿 | | 000506 | 招金黄金 | 23.57 | 9.99% | 219亿 | | 300139 | 晓程科技 | 57.33 | 8.37% | 157亿 | | 000603 | 盛达资源 | 61.34 | 8.28% | 423亿 | | 001337 | 四川黄金 | 59.58 | 7.84% | 250亿 | | 603132 | 金徽股份 | 19.73 | 7.64% | 193亿 | | 601899 | 紫雯贴,亚 | 41.35 | 4.68% | 10871亿 | | 601069 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The secondary perpetual bond market shows a distinct feature of "long - end leading the rise", with long - end yields falling significantly more than short - end yields. The long - term spread of secondary perpetual bonds has been repaired, forming a steep term spread compression pattern. Insurance institutions increase their allocation of 7 - 10 - year bonds, and funds increase their allocation of 3 - 5 - year bonds. [2][12] - After the structural differentiation market, the transmission from the long - end to the short - end is not smooth, and the downward momentum of the long - end is limited. The trading difficulty of medium - and long - term secondary perpetual bonds remains relatively large. It is recommended to use 3 - 5 - year varieties as the bottom position and wait for opportunities in the adjustment of relatively long - term varieties. [4][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1. Market Review: Insurance Institutions Increase Allocation, and Long - Term Secondary Perpetual Bonds of Large Banks Have an Independent Market - **Yield Performance**: In the third week of January, the yields of secondary perpetual bonds decreased, with long - end varieties performing particularly prominently. The 7 - year and 10 - year yields of secondary capital bonds decreased by 9.61bp and 8.84bp respectively, while the 1 - year yield only decreased by about 1bp. Perpetual bonds showed a similar pattern. In contrast, the long - end yields of other credit bonds such as medium - and short - term notes and commercial financial bonds decreased more moderately. [12] - **Spread Compression**: The credit spread quantiles of secondary perpetual bonds generally showed a compression trend, and the long - term spread repair of secondary perpetual bonds was the most prominent. The 10 - year and 7 - year spread quantiles of secondary capital bonds decreased by 20.70 and 15.61 percentage points respectively. The 7Y - 5Y term spread quantile decreased significantly, indicating a greater decline in the 7 - year yield and an obvious increase in the preference of allocation funds for this term variety. [16] - **Institutional Allocation**: Insurance institutions increased their allocation of 7 - 10 - year and 20 - 30 - year bonds, with net purchases of 12.44 billion yuan and 42.66 billion yuan respectively. Fund institutions' net purchases were mainly concentrated in the medium - and long - end, with a large - scale net purchase of 243.13 billion yuan in the 3 - 5 - year period. Other institutions had different allocation and reduction behaviors. [17] - **Transaction of Individual Bonds**: The trading of 7 - year secondary capital bonds was concentrated in state - owned banks, with Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank accounting for more than 90%. The representative bonds of the two banks had significant trading volumes and their yields decreased. [19] 3.2 2. Outlook: Limited Transmission from the Long - End to the Short - End, and Relatively Large Trading Difficulty - **Analysis of Historical Market Conditions**: Five periods of similar duration differentiation market conditions since 2022 were selected. In these periods, long - term bonds generally had a greater decline in yields than short - term bonds. After that, the transmission from the long - end to the short - end was not smooth, and the long - end's downward momentum was limited. [23] - **Market Outlook**: The differentiation of spread quantiles is usually a leading signal for market differentiation. When secondary capital bond yields show a structural differentiation where long - term varieties decline more than short - term ones, there is no smooth transmission from long - to medium - and short - term bonds. Short - end yields are at relatively low historical quantiles, with limited downward space and low allocation cost - effectiveness. In a non - bull market environment, it is difficult for secondary perpetual bonds to achieve a rotation between long and short market conditions after term spread compression, and the subsequent trend of long - term secondary perpetual bonds is more likely to be volatile. [29][30] - **Trading Suggestions**: Since the end of 2025, the short - end yield and credit spread quantiles of secondary capital bonds have decreased significantly, while the long - term yield quantiles have remained around 50% and the credit spread quantiles around 80%. Although there is no obvious supply pressure for long - term secondary perpetual bonds and moderately lengthening the duration has certain feasibility, the trading difficulty is still relatively large. It is recommended to use 3 - 5 - year varieties as the bottom position and wait for adjustment opportunities in relatively long - term varieties. [32][33]