Core Insights - The "2025 High-Quality Consumption Brand TOP 100" list is being unveiled, highlighting trends in consumer behavior and brand innovation across various sectors [9] - The report identifies four major trends: health consciousness driving wellness and sports consumption, AI enhancing product and service upgrades, novel experiences igniting consumer enthusiasm, and emotional value unlocking new consumption scenarios [9] Group 1: Candidate Brands and Market Trends - Candidate brands are concentrated in nine primary sectors, including beauty economy, health food, outdoor sports, smart electronics, experience economy, consumer technology, interest consumption, and pet economy [10] - The health and wellness sector is seeing significant growth, with brands focusing on outdoor sports and health products, driven by a national initiative promoting weight management [11] - AI technology is becoming a core competitive advantage in high-end home appliances, with brands integrating AI features into their products [11] Group 2: Brand Age and Distribution - Over 70% of candidate brands were established within the last 30 years, with nearly 40% founded within the last 10 years, indicating a trend towards newer brands [13] - Shanghai has the highest concentration of candidate brands, with a significant presence of foreign brands, while Beijing is recognized for its consumer technology brands [14][15] Group 3: Emerging Consumption Trends - The demand for functional skincare products is rising, with brands focusing on specific skin issues and leveraging e-commerce for sales growth [16][17] - Outdoor sports consumption is becoming more segmented, with traditional apparel brands entering the market to capture this growing trend [18] - The concept of "new Chinese wellness" is gaining traction, with brands emphasizing health and wellness in their product offerings [20] Group 4: Cultural and Global Expansion - Companies are increasingly looking to expand internationally, with a focus on brand, culture, and service exports, adapting to global market demands [25][26] - The "AI + consumption" trend is reshaping the consumer landscape, with businesses planning to integrate AI technologies into various aspects of their operations [27][28]

Core Insights - The e-commerce beauty sector achieved over 10% GMV growth during the 618 shopping festival, driven by brand value [1][2] - Platforms are shifting focus from absolute price competition to supporting quality brands, benefiting top brands overall [1][3] - The performance among brands is varied, maintaining a "stronger than market" rating for the beauty industry [1][5] E-commerce Performance - The beauty category saw over 10% growth during the 618 event, outperforming the low single-digit growth in retail sales for cosmetics from January to May 2025 [2] - Taobao remains the leading online channel for beauty, achieving an 11% GMV increase, while Douyin also showed strong growth with skincare and makeup categories growing by 12% and 11% respectively [2] Brand Dynamics - High-end international brands benefited from Taobao's "supporting quality" strategy, with European and American brands gaining market share in skincare and makeup [3] - The concentration of top brands in Taobao's makeup category increased, with the top five brands' market share rising to 25%, a 4 percentage point increase [3] Pricing Trends - Price competition has weakened, with average prices for Taobao makeup, Douyin skincare, and Douyin makeup increasing by 2%, 24%, and 9% respectively [4] - Domestic brands are controlling discount activities and reducing promotional gifts, leading to an increase in actual consumer prices [4] Product Structure - Sales during the promotion were primarily driven by classic products, with some new products like Han Shu's series achieving breakthroughs [4] - Brands like Proya and L'Oreal optimized their product matrices, while Estee Lauder focused on growth through gift sets [4] Overall Market Outlook - Major beauty brands achieved low single-digit GMV growth during the 618 event, but performance varied significantly among brands [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic theme park bookings for the summer of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 70% in orders, particularly for major global players like Universal Studios Beijing and Shanghai Disneyland [2][3] - The report also notes that local IP parks, such as the Pop Mart City Park, have gained popularity, with a 600% increase in bookings in June, placing it among the top 10 summer theme parks [2][3] - The report discusses the strong performance of the AI creative tool Figma, which is preparing for an IPO with a projected valuation of $20 billion, showcasing a 48% revenue growth in 2024 [4][26] Summary by Sections 1. Travel and Leisure - The summer theme park bookings have surged, with a 70% increase in orders compared to the previous year, and surrounding hotel bookings have also risen by approximately 40% [2][3] - The opening of the Shanghai Lego Park has further boosted regional hotel bookings by 350% [13][14] 2. Trendy Toys - The Sanrio 2025 Character Awards have seen record global voting numbers, indicating sustained popularity and engagement with the brand [17][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of anniversary celebrations for IP operations, with significant events planned for characters like Melody and Kuromi [25][27] 3. AI and Creative Tools - Figma, a leading AI creative tool, is set to go public, with a revenue of $749 million projected for 2024, reflecting a 48% year-on-year increase [4][26] - The company has a strong customer base, serving 95% of the Fortune 500 companies, and has shown a net dollar retention rate of 125% [26][30] 4. Coffee and Tea - Luckin Coffee has expanded into the U.S. market with two new stores in New York, utilizing a digital-first approach to minimize costs [36][41] - The average monthly store efficiency for Luckin Coffee reached 247,000 yuan, marking a 13.4% year-on-year increase [41][44] 5. Instant Retail - The competition between Alibaba and Meituan in the food delivery sector has intensified, with significant subsidies being offered to consumers [45][47] - On July 5, Meituan reported over 120 million orders in a single day, indicating a surge in demand [47][53] 6. Beauty and Personal Care - The report highlights the dominance of the domestic brand Han Shu in the Douyin platform, achieving over 700 million yuan in sales in June [53][54] - The beauty category on Douyin saw a GMV exceeding 20 billion yuan in June, with Han Shu leading the market [53][54]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the strong performance of high-end brands and emerging effective brands in the beauty and medical aesthetics sectors, particularly during the 618 shopping festival, which saw a total e-commerce sales of 8,556 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [8][36] - The medical aesthetics market is expected to grow significantly with the approval of new products, such as the first compliant lipolytic injection in China, which is projected to expand the market from 135 million yuan in 2023 to 805 million yuan by 2025 [31][32] Summary by Sections Market Review - The beauty care index rose by 2.55% in May 2025, ranking 14th among all primary industries, underperforming the overall market [16] - In May, the top performers in the medical aesthetics sector included Kedi-B (+61.3%), Sihuan Pharmaceutical (+36.1%), and East China Pharmaceutical (+15.1%) [21][26] - In the cosmetics sector, the leading companies were Lafang Jiahua (+28.0%), Shuiyang Co. (+24.5%), and Babi Co. (+19.1%) [27][29] Medical Aesthetics - The approval of Mai Nuo Wei's "Xian Su" injection marks a significant breakthrough in the domestic lipolytic market, with a projected market size increase to 8.05 billion yuan by 2025 [31][32] - The exit of CPE as a major shareholder in Meili Tianyuan is expected to optimize the company's governance structure and enhance its market position [32] Cosmetics - The 618 shopping festival saw a total GMV of 659.09 billion yuan in the beauty category, with international high-end brands showing resilience and growth due to strong brand effects [8][41] - Domestic brands like Pechoin and Han Shu led the sales on platforms like Tmall and Douyin, with significant growth rates for new brands [44] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on strong domestic beauty brands and those benefiting from high-growth segments, highlighting companies like Shangmei Co., Maogeping, and Pechoin as key investment opportunities [47][48] - In the medical aesthetics sector, companies like Aimeike and Kedi-B are recommended for their potential growth driven by new product launches and market expansion [47][48] Market Trends - The report notes a shift towards "emotional consumption" in the beauty sector, with consumers increasingly seeking products that offer aesthetic and therapeutic benefits [48] - The overall market is expected to continue evolving with new product introductions and innovative marketing strategies as the industry enters a seasonal transition [49]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 27 Jun 2025 Research Report on the Entire 618 Cycle of the Beauty Category on both Taobao/Tmall and Douyin Platforms 中国化妆品 China (A-share) Cosmetics 美妆品类 618 全周期淘系和抖音双平台调研报告 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou 吴颖婕 Mindy Wu yy.kou@htisec.com mindy.yj.wu@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 本次 618 期间，淘系为美妆销售主战场但销售略低于预期，抖音美妆增速高于抖音大盘增速。淘系平台 5.13-6.20 的 GMV 略超 400 亿，同比增长超 10%，不及平台预期目标。总体淘系平台大盘增速同样不及预期，主要由于政策 调整导致爆发力减弱，去年跨店满减活动单日 ...

Summary of the Beauty Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The beauty industry experienced a total sales growth of 5.2% during the 618 shopping festival, with total sales reaching approximately 855.6 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase year-on-year. The event duration was extended to 36 days, leading to a slight decline in average daily sales compared to the previous year [2][14]. Key Brands and Performance - **Polaire**: Achieved significant sales on Tmall and Douyin, with a GMV of 4.5 billion yuan on Douyin in 2025, facing some growth pressure but maintaining positive growth on Tmall [11]. - **Mao Geping**: Experienced a remarkable growth rate of 55%-60% on Douyin, driven by key products like caviar masks and foundation. The skincare category on Tmall also saw a growth rate of about 60% [5]. - **Perfect Diary**: Notable growth on Douyin attributed to new products like the small gold needle series and creams, with a growth rate of approximately 40% on Tmall [6]. - **Han Shu**: Maintained its leading position on Douyin with a growth rate of about 20%. The brand reduced its live broadcast ratio to 15% but still achieved good growth, indicating effective product card and self-broadcasting strategies [7][8]. - **Wenona**: Achieved a GMV close to 200 million yuan on Douyin, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20% in 2025, reflecting effective management changes [9][10]. - **Caitang**: Experienced over 100% growth on Douyin and 40-50% growth on Tmall, showing significant improvement under new management [12]. - **Kefumei**: Achieved a GMV of 270 million yuan on Douyin during the festival, with a year-on-year growth of 20%. Despite a decline in daily sales due to public sentiment issues, the brand's product quality remained unaffected [13]. Market Dynamics - The beauty and skincare categories performed exceptionally well, with Tmall's top five brands being Polaire, Lancôme, L'Oréal, Estée Lauder, and Shiseido [3][4]. - The overall growth of the beauty industry met expectations, with Tmall and Douyin continuing to support beauty products [14]. - Brands like Shangmei and Ruoyuchen are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, with Ruoyuchen's flagship store achieving over 70 million yuan GMV on Douyin during the festival [14]. Investment Insights - The beauty industry is considered suitable for investment due to valuation adjustments, particularly for companies like Juzhi Biology and Runben, which are expected to see significant growth [14].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the discretionary cosmetics industry Core Insights - The 2025 618 shopping festival showed robust growth, with total sales across integrated e-commerce, instant retail, and community group buying reaching 855.6 billion yuan, 29.6 billion yuan, and 12.6 billion yuan respectively, marking year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 18.7%, and -9.1% [1][17] - The overall transaction volume of major platforms increased by 10.4% year-on-year, with Taobao/Tmall, JD.com, Douyin, Pinduoduo, and Kuaishou accounting for 48.7%, 19.3%, 18.4%, 10.1%, and 3.6% of GMV respectively [1][17] - The beauty category on major e-commerce platforms achieved a GMV of 60-70 billion yuan during the 618 period, with a year-on-year increase of over 10% [1][19] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Sales during the 618 festival from May 13 to June 18, 2025, reached 855.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4% across major platforms [1][17] - Tmall's GMV, excluding refunds, increased by 10% year-on-year, with 453 brands exceeding 100 million yuan in sales, a 24% increase [2][18] Platform Insights - Douyin saw over 60,000 brands doubling their transaction amounts year-on-year, with more than 2,000 products exceeding 10 million yuan in sales [2][18] - JD.com led the industry with over 100% growth in user orders, achieving a record high in daily active users [2][18] Market Share and Brand Rankings - Tmall maintained a 41.3% market share in the beauty category, followed by Douyin at 35.7%, JD.com at 14.8%, and Kuaishou at 8.2% [1][19] - The top brands in the beauty and skincare category on Tmall included Pechoin, Lancôme, L'Oréal, Estée Lauder, and Skinceuticals, with Skinceuticals entering the top five for the first time [1][19] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the makeup and perfume category was intense, with YSL topping the list, followed by Caitang and Mao Ge Ping [1][19] - On Douyin, the beauty and skincare category saw 34 brands exceeding 100 million yuan in sales, a significant increase of 88.9% year-on-year [1][20]

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant growth of China's consumption market, which reached 48.8 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [10][11] - Service retail sales in China grew by 6.2% in 2024, outpacing goods retail sales by 3 percentage points, indicating a shift towards service consumption [10][18] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to exceed 50% by 2025, driven by policy support and technological innovation, with sales growth projected at nearly 30% [23][71] Group 2 - The traditional consumption sectors are experiencing diverse growth, particularly in the automotive sector, where NEVs are the main growth driver, with sales of 1.29 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35.5% [21][22] - The home appliance market saw significant growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 1.95 trillion yuan, a 5.6% increase from the previous year, supported by government policies [28][30] - The liquor industry is entering a phase of stock competition, with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showing stable revenue, while overall production has been declining since 2016 [33][39] Group 3 - The report identifies emerging consumption trends, such as the pet economy, which is projected to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2024, driven by increased pet ownership and higher spending per pet [59][60] - The潮玩 (trendy toy) industry is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 24% from 2022 to 2026, with retail sales projected to reach 110.1 billion yuan by 2026 [62][74] - The beauty economy, encompassing cosmetics, personal care, and medical aesthetics, is also expanding, with the cosmetics retail sales reaching 114.9 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, a 3.2% year-on-year increase [69][70]

Core Insights - The beauty industry is transitioning from a phase of "easy growth" to a "complex new stage" globally, with significant challenges ahead [2][5] - The McKinsey report predicts a global beauty market size of $441 billion in 2024, with a growth rate of 7% from 2022 to 2024, but a decline to 5% from 2024 to 2030 [3][4] - The Chinese beauty market is projected to account for 15% of the global market in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% from 2019 to 2024, but a significant drop to -3% from 2021 to 2024 [7][10] Regional Analysis - The Chinese beauty market has lost $6.33 billion (approximately 454 billion yuan) over four years, indicating a downturn post-pandemic [7] - The beauty giants are now looking for growth opportunities in emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East, Africa, and India, which are showing higher growth rates [11][12] - In 2024, major companies like L'Oréal and Unilever are increasing investments in emerging regions, with Unilever investing in seven Indian brands [13][14] Category Opportunities - Skincare remains the largest category in the beauty market, accounting for 41%, followed by haircare (21%), color cosmetics (19%), and fragrance (19%) [17] - Fragrance has shown the highest growth rate of 8% from 2019 to 2024, and is expected to continue leading with a growth rate of 4-6% from 2024 to 2030 [18][20] - The demand for health, sun protection, and personal care products is rising, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards efficacy and certainty [22][24] Growth Drivers - Future growth in the beauty industry will primarily come from volume rather than price increases, as consumers are increasingly focused on the real value of products [26][30] - Price increases have been met with consumer resistance, as seen with Estée Lauder and L'Oréal, indicating a need for brands to focus on product quality and differentiation [28][31] - The beauty market is being segmented into five price tiers, and brands must compete on product strength or pricing rather than simply lowering prices [30][32] Consumer Trends - There is a noticeable shift in consumer spending towards emotional and experiential purchases, as evidenced by high-value art sales and changing preferences in the beauty sector [33][34] - The focus on value, differentiation, and individuality will be key opportunities in the current market landscape [34]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The domestic tourism market showed steady growth during the Dragon Boat Festival, with 119 million domestic trips made, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, and total spending reaching 42.73 billion yuan, up 5.9% year-on-year [15][16] - TOPTOY acquired a 51% stake in Hi TOY to enhance its IP portfolio, while Quantum Song reported a net profit of 41.15 million yuan for FY2025 Q3, a year-on-year increase of 181.24% [18][26] - The beauty sector on Douyin saw a GMV of 23.497 billion yuan in May, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth, with international brands gaining market share [37][38] Summary by Sections Travel and Tourism - Domestic travel during the Dragon Boat Festival reached 119 million trips, with total spending of 42.73 billion yuan, indicating a 5.7% and 5.9% year-on-year increase respectively [15] - Xiangyuan Holdings strategically invested in Haichang Ocean Park, acquiring a 38.6% stake for 22.95 billion HKD, enhancing its cultural tourism portfolio [16] Trendy Toys - TOPTOY's acquisition of Hi TOY aims to strengthen its IP matrix and enhance competitiveness in the trendy toy market [18] - Quantum Song's revenue for FY2025 Q3 was 571 million yuan, down 39.64% year-on-year, but net profit surged 181.24% to 41.15 million yuan [26] Beverage Industry - Tea Baidao launched a new peach series, selling 300,000 cups on the first day, while Luckin Coffee introduced a new fruit and vegetable tea priced at 9.9 yuan [34][36] Beauty and Personal Care - Douyin's beauty category GMV reached 23.497 billion yuan in May, with a significant increase in the number of brands exceeding 1 billion yuan in sales [37] - International brands dominated the top beauty rankings, with 7 out of the top 10 brands being foreign, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [38][44] Market Performance - The A-share social service sector outperformed the market, with a 2.09% increase, while the Hong Kong consumer services sector lagged behind the Hang Seng Index [7][25]