Economic Data - China's January Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.1, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [3] - Eurozone's January Manufacturing PMI final value is reported at 49.4, showing continued contraction [3] - The US ISM Manufacturing Index for January is anticipated to rise to 48.3 from 47.9, suggesting a potential stabilization in manufacturing [3] Central Bank Decisions - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise its policy rate to 3.85% from 3.6% [4] - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are both expected to maintain their current interest rates during their upcoming meetings [9] Major Corporate Earnings - Key earnings reports are expected from major companies including Disney, Pepsi, Merck, and Pfizer, with a focus on their performance in the current economic climate [4][26] - Tech giants like Google and Amazon will report on their cloud business growth, which is critical for assessing AI monetization capabilities [6][26] Geopolitical Events - Ongoing tensions in Iran are highlighted, with the US increasing military presence in the region, which may impact global markets [12] - Japan and Thailand are set to hold significant elections on February 8, which could influence regional political stability [15][17] IPOs and Market Movements - Muyuan Foods is set to launch its IPO in Hong Kong, potentially raising up to 14 billion HKD (approximately 1.8 billion USD) [28] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limits and margin requirements for silver futures, reflecting a tightening in trading conditions [11] Commodity Market Changes - CME has raised the margin requirements for gold from 6% to 8% and for silver from 11% to 15%, indicating a move to reduce leverage in the precious metals market [10] - The Chinese government has implemented a temporary 5% import tax on whiskey starting February 2 [19]

Market Overview - Precious metals and copper prices experienced significant declines as investors reacted to the nomination of a new Fed chair, leading to profit-taking after recent record highs [1] - Gold futures saw a dramatic drop, closing at $4,745 an ounce, down 11.4% or $600 on the day, marking the largest intra-day decline since the early 1980s [2] - Silver prices fluctuated wildly, ending the day at $78.53 an ounce, a 35.9% drop, the largest decline on record [3] - Copper prices fell sharply, closing at $5.92 per pound ($13,060 per tonne), down 4.5% from previous highs [4] Company Performance - Major mining companies faced substantial losses, with Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) down 11.5% to a market cap of $122 billion and Barrick Mining (NYSE:B) down 12.03% to $77.13 billion [9] - Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX:AEM) dropped 10.8% to a market valuation of $95.64 billion, losing its status as a $100 billion stock [9] - Gold Fields (NYSE:GFI) lost 14.5% to a market cap of $47.42 billion, while AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU) fell over 13% to $46.89 billion [10] - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) saw a 7.5% decline, with a market cap of $86.49 billion, while Vale (NYSE:VALE) slid by 5.1% to $68.43 billion [14] Sector Impact - The overall mining sector suffered double-digit percentage drops, wiping billions in market value, particularly affecting gold, silver, and platinum stocks [8] - Copper producers and diversified companies, while also experiencing declines, fared better compared to precious metal stocks [11] - The tie-up between Teck Resources (NYSE:TECK) and Anglo American (OTCPK:NGLOY) is progressing, but both companies faced declines of 7.8% and 5.7% respectively [15] - Chinese mining companies like Zijin Mining (OTCPK:ZIJMY) and CMOC Group (SEHK:3993) also saw significant drops, with Zijin down 12.2% [17]

Rio Tinto and Glencore are poised to seek more time to work on a deal to create the world’s biggest miner as they wrangle over the premium that Rio would need to pay https://t.co/1VRpuPfsKn ...

格隆汇1月30日｜伦敦上市的矿业股因银价下跌而走低，金属市场持续波动加剧。瑞讯银行分析师Ipek Ozkardeskaya指出，价格回调很可能被视为增强多头头寸的机会，因推动金属上涨的主要驱动力依然完 全存在。她补充称，这些驱动因素包括：G7集团债务的不可持续但仍在上升、美元吸引力减弱、贸易 与地缘政治不确定性、对能够在地缘政治进一步混乱时保值超主权资产的寻求，以及潜在的价格压力上 升。Hochschild Mining股价下跌4.9%，Fresnillo和嘉能可分别下跌4.4%和2.8%。 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-30 铜价冲高回落 暂时或仍维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2026-01-29，沪铜主力合约开于 102540元/吨，收于 109110元/吨，较前一交易日收盘5.87%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 110,310元/吨，收于 106,900 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.20%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货对2602合约报价贴水240至100元/吨，均价贴水170元，上涨70元。现货价格 区间为102450-105920元/吨。期铜主力单边强势上涨，早盘于102600-103100元区间波动后加速上行，盘中触及 108920元历史新高，收于108230元。隔月Contango价差在490-340元之间，当月进口盈亏介于亏损370元至盈利110 元。早间好铜贵溪报贴水140元，平水铜贴水250-200元，中条山等以贴水250元成交，祥光等报贴水240-200元，湿 法铜货紧报贴水290-280元。午后持货商挺价上调，中条山等报贴水190元，JCC报贴水150元。近期若铜价维持高 位将抑制下游采购。月差走扩增强交仓意愿，市场流 ...

Core Viewpoint - The metal market in January 2026 is characterized by significant volatility, particularly in copper prices, driven by macroeconomic policies, geopolitical conflicts, and industrial transformations [1][2]. Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - Copper prices experienced extreme fluctuations, starting with a high opening at 108,280 yuan/ton before a sharp decline due to profit-taking by bulls [2]. - Three main factors driving the surge in copper prices include: 1. Macroeconomic conditions with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates and the dollar dropping below 96, creating expectations for looser monetary policy [2]. 2. Supply constraints from major producers like Glencore and Antofagasta, with anticipated declines in copper output by 2025 [2]. 3. Increased demand from emerging sectors such as AI and photovoltaics, although actual market transactions remain weak due to high prices and pre-holiday inventory management [3]. Group 2: Other Metals Overview - Aluminum prices surged due to speculative trading but are expected to enter a correction phase as demand weakens ahead of the holiday season, despite low inventory levels providing some support [5]. - Zinc prices are influenced by a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions, but the supply-demand balance is weak, with excess refining capacity and subdued downstream consumption [6]. - Lead prices are under pressure from macroeconomic factors and weak demand, with a potential for further declines as pre-holiday stockpiling ends [7]. - Nickel prices are experiencing a weak trend due to seasonal demand slowdown, although long-term support exists from supply constraints in Indonesia [8]. - Tin prices have shown volatility but are supported by long-term demand growth in sectors like AI and electric vehicles, despite short-term production slowdowns [9].

Group 1 - The core sentiment in the commodity market is characterized by a significant surge in prices, particularly in copper, driven by strong buying from Chinese investors, with copper prices reaching historical highs of over $14,000 per ton on the London Metal Exchange and 110,970 yuan per ton on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, marking a daily increase of over 7% [1][3] - The macroeconomic environment supports the rise in commodity prices, with the US dollar index falling to a four-year low, enhancing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities, alongside expectations of continued loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which lowers the holding costs of commodities [3][4] - The surge in copper prices is not solely due to speculative trading; the fundamental supply-demand dynamics in the global copper market provide solid support, with a notable decline in copper production from major mining companies and increasing demand from China, which accounts for over 55% of global copper consumption [4][5] Group 2 - There is a clear divide in market sentiment regarding the sustainability of the current copper price surge, with optimistic views suggesting that the underlying logic for commodity price increases remains intact, while cautious perspectives warn of potential overheating and disconnection from fundamental demand [5][6] - Optimists believe that the structural bull market for copper, likened to "oil of the electric era," is just beginning, supported by ongoing demand from AI and renewable energy sectors [5] - Key variables influencing future copper prices include the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments, the trajectory of the US dollar index, actual demand from China's electricity grid investments and renewable energy industries, and the recovery of global copper supply [6]

宏观层面，美国联邦储备委员会28日宣布维持联邦基金利率目标区间在3.5%至3.75%不变，但未来宽松 预期持续支撑市场情绪。叠加美元汇率持续走低，一度跌破96关口创四年新低，市场对贵金属及铜等优 质金属资产的需求不减，推动铜估值继续上探。美国劳工部周四公布数据显示，截至1月24日当周初请 失业金人数为20.9万人，虽高于预期的20.5万人，但低于前值修正后的21万人，显示裁员规模仍较低， 不过疲软的招聘态势加剧了家庭对劳动力市场的担忧。此外，美国总统特朗普称将于周五上午（北京时 间周五晚间）宣布美联储主席人选，市场高度关注，投机客做多情绪浓厚，继续主导铜价走势。 长江铜价copper.ccmn.cn短评：美指下跌、油价大涨引资金疯狂涌入做市，隔夜伦铜暴涨4.46%；多头获 利了结致沪期铜涨势收窄，但嘉能可铜产量骤降11%，预今现铜大涨。 【铜期货市场】美指下跌、油价大涨引资金疯狂涌入做市，隔夜伦铜偏强震荡，最新收盘报价13705美 元/吨，收涨585美元，涨幅4.46%，成交量75210手增加46339手，持仓量331270手增加1322手；晚间沪 铜高开跳涨突破新历史高度后回落，随后进入横盘区间震荡，主力月 ...

Macro Commentary - Chinese policymakers are signaling a strategic shift to prioritize domestic demand as the primary economic task by 2026, addressing issues like overcapacity, deflationary pressures, and weak confidence [2] - Demand-side policies will focus on stabilizing the real estate market and boosting consumption through measures such as lowering mortgage rates and purchasing unsold properties [2] - Supply-side policies will aim at structural adjustments, enhancing industry concentration by curbing capacity expansion and encouraging mergers and acquisitions [6] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,968, up 0.51% for the day and 9.12% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.00% [3] - The Chinese stock market saw gains, particularly in real estate, consumer staples, and financial sectors, with net inflows of 4.374 billion HKD from southbound funds [5] - The U.S. stock market experienced a pullback, with technology, consumer discretionary, and materials sectors leading the decline, while communication services, real estate, and energy sectors gained [5] Company Insights - Meta (META US) reported a 24% year-on-year revenue increase to 59.9 billion USD for Q4 2025, driven by AI-enhanced advertising growth, and provided a revenue guidance of 53.5-56.5 billion USD for Q1 2026 [6] - Microsoft (MSFT US) achieved 16.7% revenue growth to 81.3 billion USD in Q2 FY26, with strong performance in productivity and business processes, and provided a target price of 614.6 USD [6] - ServiceNow (NOW US) reported a 21% revenue increase to 3.57 billion USD for Q4 2025, with a positive outlook for FY26 driven by AI efficiencies, maintaining a target price of 215.0 USD [7][8] - Sunny Optical Technology (2382 HK) expects a 70-75% increase in net profit for 2025, driven by high-end camera upgrades and growth in automotive and smart glasses segments, with a target price of 91.38 HKD [8]

2026年01月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 2 | | 铜：美元弱势，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：库存去化 | 6 | | 铅：国内库存持续增加，施压价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：高位高波 | 10 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：震荡上行 | 12 | | 钯：ETF持续流入，跟随上涨 | 12 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 14 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 30 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：高位回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | -- ...