（文章来源：第一财经） 华西证券指出，中长期视角下，对比A股历次牛市，本轮行情仍处中段，"慢牛"趋势有望延续。行业配 置上，建议关注：（1）科技产业行情扩散：如AI算力、AI应用、机器人、太空光伏、存储、港股互联 网等；（2）受益于"反内卷"与涨价方向，如化工、有色金属等；（3）年报业绩预告高增行业：如电 子、机械设备、医药等。 ...

Core Insights - The bond ETF market is expected to experience explosive growth in 2025, with a total market size reaching 8290.24 billion yuan by the end of the year, marking a significant increase of 376.52% from the beginning of 2025 [2] - The growth is primarily driven by two new categories: benchmark market-making credit bond ETFs and sci-tech bond ETFs, which were launched for the first time in 2025 [2][4] Market Size and Composition - As of December 31, 2025, the total size of bond ETFs reached 8290.24 billion yuan, a substantial increase from 1739.73 billion yuan at the start of the year, with a net asset value share of 13.77% of all ETFs [2] - The bond ETF market consists of 53 products, accounting for 3.78% of the total number of ETFs [2] - The sci-tech bond ETFs tracked the CSI AAA Technology Innovation Company Bond Index with 16 products, totaling 2807.48 billion yuan, while the benchmark market-making credit bond ETFs reached 798.57 billion yuan [3] Investment Opportunities and Risks - The expectation of a shift in overseas monetary policy, particularly a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, is anticipated to positively impact the domestic bond ETF market [5] - Continuous policy support for the economy is expected to provide underlying support for the bond market, enhancing the attractiveness of bond ETFs [5] - There is a rising demand for bond ETFs from long-term funds such as insurance and pension funds, driven by the need for duration matching [6] - However, the supply side presents challenges, with projected net financing scales for government bonds and local bonds in 2026 potentially affecting market sentiment [6] Strategic Recommendations - Given the anticipated narrow fluctuation in bond market interest rates in 2026, institutions are advised to adopt a proactive management approach to their portfolios, focusing on maintaining flexibility and liquidity [8] - A "neutral to moderately conservative" duration level is recommended as a safety margin for investment portfolios [8] - Institutions should consider wave trading strategies to capitalize on market fluctuations, particularly during periods of monetary policy adjustments [9] - Structural allocation based on the performance of different bond types is crucial, with a focus on optimizing investment portfolios to enhance overall returns [9]

2025年的A股，以一场气势如虹的"11连阳"收官，上证指数全年上涨18.41%，书写了清晰的单边向上趋势。然而，在指数昂扬的乐章下，超过1500只个股 下跌的分化现实，让这更是一场极致的"结构性牛市"。普涨难觅，α（超额收益）为王，专业投顾的价值因此被空前凸显——他们不仅是趋势的同行者， 更是帮客户穿越分化、捕捉主线的领航员。 第八届新财富最佳投顾评选结果已揭晓，这份名单正是在复杂结构市中淬炼出的"专业答卷"。本届评选吸引了创纪录的39,893名投顾参与，最终仅91人脱 颖而出，获奖比例低至0.23%，堪称万里挑一。 这91位顶尖投顾平均从业14年，人均服务客户超1000人，管理客户资产规模1908亿元。他们是深度参与者：45%的获奖者上线了投顾产品，20%高频使用 直播等工具直面客户，行业正从销售导向，全面转向以客户账户表现为中心。 他们的核心价值，在于不仅能帮助客户把握市场整体趋势，更能为客户创造超越市场的超额收益。在科技与红利双线轮动的2025年，他们的策略决定了客 户是在牛市中"满载而归"还是"踏空焦虑"。 现在，让我们直接聆听部分"最佳投顾（股票交易组）"获奖者的实战策略与真切感悟。 中信建投证券 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese banking industry is undergoing a transformation from a "scale-driven, interest-led" model to a "balanced, multi-driven" approach, with a focus on new growth areas such as technological innovation, green low-carbon initiatives, and inclusive elderly care [1] Group 1: Industry Transformation - The banking sector is shifting towards a model that balances various drivers rather than relying solely on scale and interest rates [1] - Credit demand in areas like technology, green initiatives, and inclusive finance is expected to provide new growth points despite downward pressure on net interest margins [1] - The industry is characterized by traditional operating models, with significant room for optimizing income structures, particularly in increasing the proportion of fee and commission income [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - The return on equity (ROE) remains stable and is positioned in the upper-middle range among major global economies, although there has been a recent downward trend indicating the end of the "golden era" of leverage expansion [1] - The focus for future development is on transitioning from traditional "scale banks" to modern "value banks," emphasizing wealth management, investment banking, and light capital businesses to enhance ROE and navigate economic cycles [1]

Core Insights - The A-share market in 2025 experienced a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 18.41%, indicating a clear bullish market despite over 1500 stocks declining, highlighting a "structural bull market" where alpha (excess returns) is paramount [1] - The eighth New Fortune Best Investment Advisor Awards revealed a record participation of 39,893 advisors, with only 91 emerging as winners, reflecting a competitive landscape where the award ratio is as low as 0.23% [1] - The average experience of the awarded advisors is 14 years, managing client assets totaling 190.8 billion yuan, showcasing their deep involvement in the market and the shift from sales-driven to client performance-centered advisory [1] Group 1: Award Winners' Insights - Ning Shiyu from CITIC Securities emphasized the importance of solid professional foundations and customized solutions to meet client needs, aiming for steady wealth growth through long-termism [6] - Lei Mengyao from Guolian Minsheng Securities highlighted the value of understanding value investment and utilizing a multi-dimensional research strategy to align with client goals while managing risks [8] - Wang Xiaolai from Founder Securities noted the significance of systematic strategy refinement and the opportunity to learn from top advisors, enhancing her professional perspective [14] Group 2: Professional Growth and Networking - He Haijie from CITIC Securities mentioned that participating in the awards enhanced his professional growth and industry influence, allowing him to refine investment logic and optimize strategy frameworks [21] - Liu Guoliang from China Galaxy Securities expressed that the competition forced him to convert personal experiences into a verifiable professional system, expanding his career opportunities [40] - Zhang Chaowei from Guotai Junan Securities acknowledged the importance of building a professional network and gaining insights from peers, which will aid in future client service [59] Group 3: Investment Philosophy and Strategies - Chen Qian from Dongguan Securities focused on providing timely investment advice and risk control, aiming for asset preservation and growth [25] - Liu Yanzhong from Guangfa Securities emphasized the need for a balanced approach to investment, combining aggressive and conservative strategies to adapt to market cycles [123] - Yang Baochuan from Shanxi Securities highlighted the importance of understanding macroeconomic trends and micro-level opportunities to identify investment prospects [136]

受益于金价上涨，多家黄金相关企业预计2025年业绩同比增长。 目前，高盛最新报告已经将今年底黄金价格预测由每盎司4900美元上调至5400美元，因私人投资者及央 行的需求不断增强。高盛预计，今年各国央行每月将购买60吨黄金，同时随着美联储降息，ETF所购买 的黄金规模也会增加，进一步推升估值。华西证券最新研报预测，2026年金价涨幅或介于10%—35%， 而杰富瑞集团更是喊出6600美元/盎司的惊人目标。 世界黄金协会美洲CEO兼全球研究负责人安凯表示，展望2026年，黄金市场将进入多重力量交织、动态 平衡的新阶段。一方面，地缘经济不确定性依然高企，美元或将延续弱势，投资者和央行的结构性需求 有望持续为金价提供支撑。另一方面，全球经济复苏的可能性、利率周期的变化以及美元阶段性反弹等 因素，也可能对黄金价格形成一定压力。 1月25日晚，湖南黄金发布业绩预告，预计2025年净利润为12.7亿元—16.08亿元，同比增长50%— 90%。 此前，赤峰黄金曾于1月5日发布2025年度业绩预增公告，预计2025年度净利润为30亿元到32亿元，与上 年同期（法定披露数据）相比增长约70%到81%。主要原因为公司2025年 ...

美国东部时间1月25日傍晚，纽约商品交易所2月黄金期货价格在电子盘交易中突破每盎司5000美元的历 史性关口。 编辑/张鑫 但分析人士仍认为，支撑黄金上涨的核心逻辑仍在，全球格局的不确定性或许导致黄金价格依旧易涨难 跌，但短期而言，金价波动率恐将放大，投资者需警惕技术性回调风险。 文/北京青年报记者 张鑫 自1月12日以来，国际金价频频上涨，黄金迎来新一轮的行情。今年刚刚过去20余天，金价已经累计涨 超15%。 对于未来金价走势，高盛的最新报告已经将金价上调至5400美元。而华西证券最新研报预测，2026年金 价涨幅或介于10%—35%区间，杰富瑞集团更是喊出6600美元/盎司的惊人目标。 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 历史纪录。 北京时间1月26日早间，国际金价大幅上行，突破5000美元/盎司。截至发稿，现货黄金涨1.1%，报5043.093美元/盎司， COMEX黄金涨1.13%，报5035.9美元/盎司。现货白银涨超2%，COMEX白银涨超3%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金现 | 5043.093 | 54.923 | 1.10% | | 伦敦银现 | 105.467 | 2.126 | 2.06% | | COMEX黄金 | 5035.9d | 56.2 | 1.13% | | COMEX白银 | 104.890d | 3.557 | 3.51% | 消息面上，据以色列方面25日消息，美国海军"亚伯拉罕·林肯"号航母打击群已抵达中东地区，并正在美国中央司令部辖 区内开展行动。美国空军当天表示，即将在中东地区展开为期数天的战备演习。美国空军称，此次演习旨在展示美军在 这一地区部署和维持空中作战力量的能力。 此外，当地时间1月25日，伊朗议会国家安全与外交政策委员会成员穆赫辛 ...

不过在华西证券宏观联席首席分析师肖金川看来，季初月跨月压力通常不大，参考2025年季初月（剔除 1月）R007变动，资金最大升幅基本在20BP以内。同时，在央行净买债规模尚未披露的背景下，1月央 行已通过MLF（净投放7000亿元）、买断式逆回购（净投放3000亿元）合计释放1万亿元中长期资金， 体量相当于降准0.5pct。在此背景下，本周资金大概率借助逆回购续滚，便可实现平稳跨月。 新华财经北京1月26日电人民银行26日开展1505亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持 平；鉴于当日有2000亿元1年期中期借贷便利（MLF）和1583亿元7天期逆回购到期，公开市场实现净 回笼2078亿元。 上周（1月19日-23日）央行逆回购合计净投放2295亿元，23日有1500亿元国库现金定存到期，同日央行 开展9000亿元1年期MLF操作，超额续作7000亿元。央行逆回购整体净投放规模不大，周中税期对资金 面的影响低于预期，尽管下半周资金一度边际收紧，但随着周五9000亿元MLF落地，DR001再度回到 1.4%下方。 全周来看，面对1月大税期的扰动，资金面再起波澜。19日资金面已初现上行态势，R001 ...

现货黄金首次突破5000美元/盎司，日内涨0.5%。现货白银盘初再创新高，现报104.76美元/盎司，涨幅超1%。 2026年伊始，全球金融市场见证了一项历史性纪录的诞生。1月26日，现货黄金价格冲高，首次突破5000美元/ 盎司的关键心理整数关口。 对于本轮黄金价格的大幅上涨，独立财经评论员赵欢向21快讯记者分析，各国央行的战略性资产配置需求是本 轮黄金上涨的核心支撑。此外，美联储处在降息周期，意味着持有美元资产的吸引力下降，而黄金作为"无利 息资产"的机会成本变低。 事实上，当前全球央行正在掀起新一轮购金热潮。中国人民银行官方储备资产数据显示，截至2025年12月末， 我国黄金储备为7415万盎司，当月增持3万盎司。值得注意的是，这已是央行自2024年11月以来，连续第14个 月增持黄金。这一趋势也为市场注入了长期信心。 购金意愿强劲，为应对不确定性将强化黄金储备；其三，美联储降息周期延续，劳动力市场降温与通胀可控为 宽松提供支撑；其四，特朗普政府对国际秩序的扰动加剧地缘风险，推动避险需求攀升。 瞿瑞、白雪认为，尽管美欧围绕格陵兰岛的争端有所降温，但特朗普威胁对抛售美资产的欧洲实施"重大报复 行动"，"短 ...