Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning [6] Core Views - Li Ning's adult revenue showed low single-digit year-on-year growth in Q2 2025, with offline channel revenue declining and e-commerce revenue growing in mid-single digits [1][2] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product and marketing strategies to establish a foundation for long-term growth, particularly through its partnership with the Olympic Committee [3] - Revenue for 2025 is expected to remain flat year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline by 21% [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Sales Performance - In Q2 2025, Li Ning's direct sales revenue decreased in mid-single digits, attributed to a significant number of store closures in the second half of 2024 [1] - The wholesale channel revenue grew in low single digits, with the number of wholesale stores increasing to 4,821 by the end of H1 2025 [1] - E-commerce sales growth slowed compared to Q1 2025, with Q2 growth in mid-single digits, influenced by a weaker overall sales environment during the 618 shopping festival [2] Product Segments - Li Ning's children's clothing segment, Li Ning YOUNG, is expected to outperform adult sales, with a steady growth rate and an increase in store count to 1,435 by the end of Q2 2025 [2] - The company is enhancing its product structure and brand promotion for children's clothing to drive long-term growth [2] Inventory Management - Li Ning emphasizes inventory management, with an estimated inventory turnover ratio of around 4 by the end of Q2 2025, indicating a healthy inventory level [2] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 28.92 billion in 2025, with a net profit of 2.39 billion, reflecting a 21% decline [3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.92, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16 times [3][5] Market Position and Strategy - Li Ning is focusing on enhancing its brand influence through Olympic-related marketing activities and expanding its product matrix in various sports categories, including running, basketball, badminton, and outdoor sports [3]

Core Viewpoint - Company maintains EPS forecasts for 2025/26 at 0.92/1.07 HKD, with current stock price corresponding to 16/14 times 2025/26 P/E ratio, maintaining an outperform rating and target price of 20.82 HKD, indicating a 30% upside potential from current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the retail revenue of the Li Ning brand (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) grew low single digits year-on-year, with a net increase of 11 retail points in the quarter [1] - Wholesale channel continues to outperform direct sales, with offline wholesale retail revenue growing low single digits year-on-year and a net opening of 24 retail points during the period; online channel retail revenue grew mid single digits year-on-year [2] - The running category saw sales growth in high single digits year-on-year, while the fitness category continued to perform well with high single-digit growth; the sports lifestyle category stabilized with year-on-year growth flat in Q2 2025 [2] Group 2: Inventory and Discounts - Despite a volatile retail environment, the company maintained a healthy inventory level, with a channel inventory turnover ratio of approximately 4x as of the end of June, indicating controllable inventory status [2] - Discounts in both online and offline channels deepened low single digits year-on-year [2] Group 3: Marketing and Future Outlook - As retail remains volatile since July, the company plans to increase marketing and product investment focused on "Olympics plus technology" for the second half of the year, including activities related to Olympic sponsorship and new product launches in various categories [3] - The management maintains guidance for 2025 revenue to be flat year-on-year, with net profit margin in high single digits [3]

Core Insights - The rising demand for specialized running shoes among teenagers is driven by the need to improve physical fitness test scores for middle school entrance exams [1][2][3] - The market for youth running shoes is evolving into more segmented categories, including "test shoes," "arch support shoes," and "campus daily shoes" [1][5][6] - Major sports brands are responding to this trend by developing products specifically designed for the youth segment, focusing on performance and functionality [7][8] Market Trends - The popularity of carbon plate running shoes has surged among middle and primary school students, leading to a phenomenon of "equipment competition" in schools [2][3] - Brands like Anta, FILA, and Li Ning are launching products tailored for physical tests, with Anta's Maher series being a notable example, achieving sales of 500 million yuan in 2024 [3][8] - The youth sports market is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted compound annual growth rate of 10.47% from 2024 to 2030, reaching a market size of 98.91 billion yuan in China by 2024 [8] Product Development - Brands are shifting their focus from lightweight, everyday training shoes to functional running shoes that enhance speed and cater to specific scenarios [7][8] - There is a lack of dedicated youth product lines among major brands, as they often rely on adult and children's lines to meet the needs of the adolescent demographic [4][8] - Future product strategies will likely include professional validation of functionality, age-specific designs, and integrated product systems that combine shoes with protective gear and training apps [8]

Group 1 - LG Electronics has initiated the development of hybrid bonding equipment, aiming for mass production by 2028. This technology is crucial for constructing 16+ layer stacked HBM memory, utilizing copper-copper bonding without bumps to reduce the spacing between DRAM dies and achieve higher stacking with lower heat generation [1] - Heilongjiang Province has implemented a subsidy policy for manufacturing innovation centers, providing 30% reimbursement on research equipment purchases, with a maximum annual subsidy of 3 million yuan at the provincial level and a one-time national award of 10 million yuan to accelerate the commercialization of R&D results [1] - The SQX-3 rocket's sub-stage methane tank successfully completed a low-temperature static test, marking a significant achievement for the company in the aerospace sector [1] Group 2 - The first humanoid robot sports science joint laboratory has been established in Beijing Yizhuang, in collaboration with Li Ning Group, indicating a significant advancement in the field of humanoid robotics [1] - Panasonic has postponed the full operation of its new electric vehicle battery factory in the U.S. due to sluggish sales reported by its main customer, Tesla. The factory, located in Kansas, was initially set to begin operations by the end of the 2026 fiscal year, reflecting a broader slowdown in the global electric vehicle market [1]

Core Insights - The tennis footwear and apparel sector shows significant growth potential and opportunities, driven by the recovery of discretionary consumption and supportive government policies [1][2] - The global tennis participation is increasing, with over 106 million participants expected by 2024, a 21.6% increase from 2021, and the number of tennis courts growing by 20.8% to approximately 698,000 [1] - The Chinese tennis market is projected to reach 36.75 billion yuan by 2024 and 62.49 billion yuan by 2029, with participation expected to grow from 23.61 million in 2024 to over 30 million by 2029 [2] Industry Growth - The tennis industry in China is experiencing robust growth due to government support, including policy backing and financial investment, fostering the development of training, events, and venue construction [2] - The competitive landscape in China's tennis footwear and apparel market is evolving, with international brands like NIKE and ADIDAS entering, while local brands innovate and target the high-end market [3] - In 2023, the sales revenue of tennis apparel (including footwear) in China reached approximately 1.51 billion yuan, accounting for 56% of the overall tennis product market, driven by strong consumer demand for sportswear [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strong Buy" with an expectation that the stock price will outperform the market by over 20% within six months [64]. Core Insights - The sports and outdoor industry presents significant investment opportunities, particularly in the tennis sector, driven by increasing popularity and government support [2][3]. - The tennis market is expanding from traditional regions like Europe and North America to emerging markets such as China, with global tennis participants expected to exceed 106 million by 2024, a 21.6% increase from 2021 [3][9]. - China's tennis market is projected to reach 36.75 billion yuan in 2024 and grow to 62.49 billion yuan by 2029, with participant numbers expected to rise from 23.61 million in 2024 to over 30 million by 2029 [15][56]. Summary by Sections Global Tennis Market Restructuring - The global tennis market is witnessing a surge in participation, with China ranking second in participant numbers and court availability [9][15]. - Major tennis events are well-established, managed by organizations like ITF, WTA, and ATP, contributing to the sport's growth [14]. Tennis Footwear and Apparel Market - The competition landscape in China's tennis footwear and apparel market is evolving, with international brands like NIKE and ADIDAS entering, alongside local brands innovating to capture market share [31][33]. - In 2023, sales of tennis apparel (including footwear) in China reached approximately 1.51 billion yuan, accounting for 56% of the overall tennis product market [33]. Investment Recommendations - The analysis suggests focusing on high-potential tennis footwear brands and related sectors, including manufacturing, sales, media, and training services, which are all experiencing rapid growth [56]. - Key investment targets include Anta Sports and Amer Sports, which are well-positioned to benefit from the expanding market [57][58].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3][11] Core Views - In Q2 2025, the company's retail sales recorded low single-digit growth year-on-year, with a slowdown compared to Q1. E-commerce sales showed mid-single-digit growth, while discounts remained under pressure. The inventory-to-sales ratio improved to four months [3][4][5] - The company has a healthy channel inventory and cash operating situation, with marketing efforts expected to drive brand growth in the long term despite short-term profit pressures due to increased brand investment [3][11] - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 2.51 billion, 2.83 billion, and 3.04 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year changes of -16.8%, +12.8%, and +7.6% respectively [11][12] Retail Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the total number of sales points in China (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) was 6,099, a net increase of 11 from the previous quarter, but a net decrease of 18 year-to-date. The number of Li Ning YOUNG sales points was 1,435, with a net decrease of 18 from the previous quarter and 33 year-to-date [2][3] - The retail channel (direct operation) recorded a mid-single-digit decline, while the wholesale channel saw low single-digit growth. E-commerce virtual store business achieved mid-single-digit growth [2][3] Marketing Strategy - The marketing strategy focuses on two main lines: NBA (Yang Hansheng) and the Olympics (COC). The marketing expense ratio is expected to maintain a low double-digit level for the year, with significantly higher rates in the second half compared to the first half [3][5] - The company is launching limited products and personal logos in collaboration with NBA players, while also promoting a new product line centered around the Olympics and technology [5][11] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth of 0.5% in 2025, with expected revenues of 28.81 billion yuan, 30.24 billion yuan, and 31.90 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [12][16] - The expected earnings per share for 2025 is 0.97 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 15.4 [12][13]

2025 年 7 月 15 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观经济及公司点评 2025 年 7 月 15 日 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 1 周一（7 月 14 日）中国股市上涨，机器人板块爆发，医药股强势反弹，公 用事业、能源与材料涨幅居前，地产、金融与通讯服务下跌。大宗商品普涨， 国债期货下跌，人民币走平。 中国 6 月社融存量、信贷与 M1 增速反弹，显示中国经济延续复苏，2 季度 经济数据可能好于预期，3 季度货币政策宽松的可能性下降，降准降息可能 推迟至 4 季度。6 月商品出口同比增长 5.8%好于预期，进口增长 1.1%， Labubu带动玩具出口破百亿，稀土出口创 2009年来最高，铁矿石进口创年 内新高，钢铁二季度出口创纪录。 字节跳动将开发一种轻便型混合现实设备，与 Meta 公司计划 2027 年推出 的一款产品类似。京东健康首个线下医美自营诊所在北京亦庄开业，第二家 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bailong Oriental is gradually emerging from the industry's "de-inventory" shadow, with significant improvements in its financial performance and operational efficiency [1][5]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects a net profit of 350 million to 410 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 50.21% to 75.97%. The non-net profit is projected to be 323 million to 383 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 201.87% to 257.94% [2][3]. - In 2024, Bailong Oriental achieved an operating income of 7.941 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.86%, while net profit decreased by 18.62% to 410 million yuan. However, the non-net profit surged by 1128.03% to 220 million yuan [3]. Market and Production Capacity - The company has a strong order backlog in both domestic and overseas markets, leading to improved overall capacity utilization and increased main business profits [2][3]. - Bailong Oriental is a leading producer of colored spun yarn in China, with its Vietnamese subsidiary accounting for approximately 77% of its total production capacity, which has reached 1.26 million spindles [1][6]. Raw Material Dependency and Risk Management - Raw materials constitute about 70% of the company's operating costs, with cotton being the most significant component. The company has adapted its procurement strategy based on domestic and international production layouts [3]. - Bailong Oriental has engaged in futures trading to hedge against raw material price fluctuations, which has led to significant variations in investment income. In 2022, the company earned 777 million yuan from cotton futures, but this dropped to 127 million yuan in 2023 and further decreased to 76.71 million yuan in 2024 [4][5]. International Expansion and Client Base - Since 2013, Bailong Oriental has been expanding its overseas production capacity, focusing on a "small batch, multiple varieties, and quick response" business model. The company serves both domestic brands like Li Ning and international brands such as Nike and Adidas [6][7]. - In 2024, the company reported overseas revenue of 5.425 billion yuan, accounting for 68.32% of total revenue, with the Vietnamese subsidiary achieving a revenue of 5.997 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.03% [7].

Group 1: Industrial Robot Export Growth - China's industrial robot exports increased by 61.5% in the first half of the year, positioning the country as the second-largest global market share holder [1] - The growth reflects significant technological and market breakthroughs in the robotics industry, with robots becoming increasingly integrated into daily life [1] - The trend indicates a shift towards creating new demands in the industry, emphasizing the need for companies to establish patent protections and gain influence in standard-setting [1] Group 2: Collaboration in Robotics and Sports - Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center partnered with Li Ning to establish the first humanoid robot sports science joint laboratory in Beijing [2] - This collaboration highlights the accelerating convergence of sports and robotics technology, attracting venture capital into high-growth sectors [2] - The long-term focus should be on enhancing core algorithm development to reduce reliance on imported components, thereby solidifying China's global leadership in the field [2] Group 3: Hongbo Co., Ltd. Financial Performance - Hongbo Co., Ltd. reported a turnaround in its financial performance, with a projected net profit of 29.8 million to 44.2 million yuan for the first half of the year, compared to a loss of 39.56 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - The completion of the computing power project by its subsidiary significantly boosted revenue, reflecting the explosive growth in demand for AI infrastructure [3] - The reliance on a single project for profitability raises concerns about sustainability amid increasing market competition, highlighting the need for a balance between innovation investment and stable profitability [3]