Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that copper mining stocks in Hong Kong are experiencing significant gains, with several companies reaching new all-time highs due to rising copper prices and market concerns over potential tariffs on copper imports by the Trump administration [1][2] Group 2 - On January 14, copper prices reached a historical high, driven by fears that the Trump administration may expand the range of copper import tariffs, prompting traders to accelerate shipments to the U.S. before new tariffs are implemented [1] - The following companies saw notable stock price increases: - WanGuo Gold Group rose by 8.82% to 12.590 - Jiangxi Copper Co. increased by 4.36% to 48.320 - Minmetals Resources gained 3.93% to 10.050 - China Gold International rose by 3.77% to 189.800 - Luoyang Molybdenum increased by 2.96% to 22.920 - China Nonferrous Mining rose by 2.69% to 16.400 - 34th Year Salary increased by 0.74% to 41.100 [2] Group 3 - Bohai Securities indicated that market sentiment regarding resource competition significantly impacts current copper prices, suggesting that if short-term enthusiasm does not dissipate, copper prices may remain high and volatile [1]

於二零二六年一月十三日，KCM 與五礦愛邦就 KCM 銷售該產品訂立銷售協議。 據上市規則，五礦愛邦為本公司的關連人士。因此，該銷售協議構成本公司之持續關連交 易。 由於銷售協議項下年度之最高交易價值之所有相關百分比率超過 0.1%但低於 5%，該銷售協 議項下的交易構成持續關連交易，須遵守申報、年度審核及公告規定，惟獲豁免遵守上市規 則第十四 A 章之獨立股東批准之規定。 KHOEMACAU 銅精礦銷售協議 港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦 不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致之 任何損失承擔任何責任。 MMG LIMITED 五礦資源有限公司 （於香港註冊成立之有限公司） （股份代號：1208） 持續關連交易 KHOEMACAU銅精礦銷售協議 建議年度上限 截至二零二六年及二零二七年十二月三十一日止財政年度各年於銷售協議項下之年度上限如 下︰ 作為日常及一般業務過程之一部分，本集團向中國五礦集團的成員銷售產品。 於二零二六年一月十三日，KCM 與五礦愛邦簽訂銷售協議，涉及該產品的銷售。該銷售協議 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Minmetals Corporation integrates party character deeply into the political quality assessment system, applying assessment results rigidly in the selection and appointment of cadres, with nine cadres being temporarily suspended since 2025 for political incompetence [1]. Group 1: Political Assessment and Cadre Selection - The company emphasizes the evaluation of cadres based on their value orientation and decision-making during significant challenges, establishing a negative evaluation list with 15 indicators across seven areas related to political quality [1]. - A mechanism involving three forms—cadre research recommendation, annual assessment recommendation, and organizational recommendation—ensures a continuous discovery of cadres, focusing on their political attitudes and practical performance [1]. - The results of the assessments are strictly applied in cadre selection, leading to a "one-vote veto" for those deemed politically unqualified [1]. Group 2: Practical Performance and Training - The focus is on practical performance in major tasks as a key criterion for evaluating cadres' public spirit, promoting a work style centered on "action and effectiveness" [2]. - The company has implemented the "Metal Mining Pioneer Plan" and a "training through work" mechanism to break down business barriers and enhance strategic collaboration [2]. - Since 2025, newly appointed cadres have significant experience in major projects or challenging positions, with 45.3% familiar with metal mining and new energy materials [2]. Group 3: Company Overview - China Minmetals Corporation, established in 1950, is a key state-owned enterprise directly managed by the central government, focusing on metal minerals and serving as a pilot for state capital investment companies [3]. - The company aims to become a "resource guarantee national team" and a main force in serving new national strategies, striving to build a globally competitive world-class metal mineral enterprise group [3]. - Currently, the company employs 180,000 staff and operates in over 60 countries and regions worldwide [3].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Copper Market - **Current Price Levels**: LME copper price exceeds $13,000 per ton, while domestic copper futures reach ¥105,000 per ton [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Drivers**: The recent surge in copper prices is driven by macroeconomic recovery expectations, supply-demand tightness, and low overseas inventories leading to short-covering behavior [1][3] - **Supply Constraints**: The copper mining supply is limited due to a defensive capital expenditure cycle, low willingness to develop new mines, and high production disruption rates [1][7] - **Demand from AI Investments**: Significant increases in copper demand are anticipated due to data center construction, with IEA predicting that the share of copper used in data centers will rise to about 2% by 2026 [1][8] - **2026 Market Outlook**: The copper market is expected to perform strongly in 2026, with a projected supply-demand gap of approximately 630,000 tons, driven by a 3% growth in global demand [2][4][9] Additional Important Content - **Impact of Social Inventory**: The influence of social inventory on copper prices has diminished, as it now reflects price changes rather than being a leading factor [1][5] - **US Tariffs on Copper**: The US has imposed tariffs on electrolytic copper as part of a strategy to enhance domestic resource production capabilities, which is expected to tighten non-US inventories and increase price elasticity [4][11] - **Trade Flow Effects**: The US's absorption of electrolytic copper is leading to low inventories and tight spot markets in non-US regions, making price spikes more likely [12] - **Recommended Companies**: Companies such as Minmetals Resources, Zijin Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum are highlighted for their potential strong performance in the equity market due to cost advantages and growth prospects [13][14] - **Focus on Smelting Enterprises**: Smelting companies are also worth monitoring due to their high recovery rates and potential profits from by-products, despite low processing fees [15]

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 12 日 投资要点： 科创 50 1,511.84 2.43% 7.73% 北证 50 1,605.77 5.35% 9.50% 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2026年01月12日 华源晨会精粹 20260112 固定收益 关注边际修复行业的配置机会——信用分析周报：本周信用热点事件：（1） 交易商协会发布《关于进一步规范债务融资工具发行工作的业务提示》；（2）贵州 省人民政府印发《支持推动兴业强县富民一体发展若干政策措施》。本周不同行业 不同评级的信用利差大多有 10BP 以内的压缩幅度，非银金融 AA+信用利差大幅走 扩 20BP。城投债方面，本周不同期限的城投信用利差较上周有 1-4BP 的压缩幅度。 产业债方面，本周产业债信用利差 1Y 短端大幅走扩，1Y 以上大多有不同程度压缩。 银行资本债方面，本周银行二永债 1Y 以内短端利差小幅走扩，3Y 显著压缩，5-10Y 中长端小幅压缩。2025 年下半年以来，"反内卷"政策催化商品价格企稳回升，部 分行业基本面现修复迹象。截至 2026/1/7，有色金属行业存量债券共 290 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Views - The lithium sector is expected to experience a surge in demand due to a decline in export tax rebates, leading to a wave of pre-purchases. The Ministry of Finance announced that the export tax rebate for lithium products will decrease from 9% to 6% on April 1, 2026, and to 0% on January 1, 2027. This is projected to increase lithium carbonate demand by approximately 40,000 to 50,000 tons, significantly tightening supply [11][12] - The gold market is influenced by geopolitical risks in the Americas and a recent downward revision of U.S. non-farm payrolls. Despite a decrease in non-farm employment growth, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.4%. The gold price is expected to remain strong in the short term due to these factors [12][13] - Copper prices have seen a correction, which has improved demand. The current market conditions suggest that copper prices may rise beyond expectations, and investors are encouraged to actively position themselves in copper mining stocks [13][14] Summary by Sections Lithium - Weekly inventory has shifted to an accumulation of 337 tons, indicating a turning point. Market perception is that demand will recover post-maintenance of positive electrode manufacturers [11] - The decline in export tax rebates is expected to lead to a pre-purchase wave, with demand for lithium carbonate significantly increasing [11] - The lithium mining sector is anticipated to benefit from both profit and valuation increases, with a focus on companies like Guocheng Mining and others [11] Gold - U.S. non-farm payrolls were revised down, with a growth of only 50,000 jobs in December, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% [12] - Geopolitical risks are accumulating, particularly in Venezuela and other parts of the Americas, which may support gold prices in the short term [12] - The long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to currency depreciation and geopolitical fragmentation [12] Copper - After a price correction, demand for copper has improved, with expectations of increased production rates in the coming weeks [13] - The market is characterized by a favorable sentiment, and investors are advised to take advantage of price corrections to invest in copper mining stocks [13] - The outlook for copper prices suggests potential upward movement beyond current expectations, with adjustments in earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios anticipated [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the metal and mining industry, indicating a favorable outlook for investment opportunities [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in industrial metals driven by "Monroeism" sentiment, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a trend of copper hoarding in the U.S. [2][5]. - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are experiencing a recovery phase, with a focus on the resilience of gold stocks amid geopolitical tensions and fluctuating interest rate expectations [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of sector allocation, particularly in copper and aluminum, as they are expected to benefit from macroeconomic trends and supply-demand dynamics [5][6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold stocks are showing signs of recovery, with a notable shift from a previous stagnation in performance relative to gold prices. The report anticipates continued upward pressure on gold prices due to ongoing recession fears and weak inflation and employment data [4]. - Silver is expected to outperform due to macroeconomic conditions and a favorable trading structure, with a recommendation to focus on silver stocks for their potential elasticity [4]. Industrial Metals - The report notes a strong performance in copper and aluminum, with copper prices rising by 4.3% and aluminum by 3.8% during the week. This is attributed to increased inventories and a favorable macroeconomic backdrop [5][24]. - The report suggests that the copper and aluminum sectors are well-positioned for a spring rally, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and supply disruptions due to geopolitical factors [5][6]. Energy and Strategic Metals - The report identifies lithium as a key area for investment, with expectations of a supply-demand turning point and strong pricing trends. The strategic value of rare earths and tungsten is also highlighted, particularly in light of export controls and geopolitical tensions [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of positioning in cobalt and nickel, with expectations of long-term price increases due to supply constraints and rising demand [6].

Group 1 - The Baotou Rare Earth Products Exchange has launched a rare earth price index, utilizing its trading data and compliance trade data, covering mainstream products like lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, and neodymium [1] - The index is developed in collaboration with major rare earth enterprises and institutions, including Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth [1] - Baotou Steel and Northern Rare Earth announced an adjustment in the price of rare earth concentrate to 26,834 yuan/ton (excluding tax), a 2.4% increase [1] Group 2 - Northern Rare Earth is the largest supplier of light rare earth products globally, with China holding approximately 40% of the world's rare earth resources [2] - From Q3 2024, the price of rare earth concentrates has been raised six consecutive times, with significant price increases noted in various rare earth products [2] - Northern Rare Earth reported a revenue of 30.292 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a 40.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 1.541 billion yuan, up 280.27% [2] Group 3 - The demand for rare earth permanent magnets is growing rapidly, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, which is expected to account for about 50% of future demand for high-performance neodymium-iron-boron magnets [3] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for rare earth demand is projected to exceed 13% over the next three years, driven by sectors like electric vehicles and wind power [3] Group 4 - Jinli Permanent Magnet expects a net profit of 505 million to 550 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 157% to 179% [4] - China Rare Earth Holdings is primarily engaged in the manufacturing and sales of rare earth and refractory products [4] Group 5 - Minmetals Resources has been initiated with a "recommend" rating, with projected revenues of 48.3 billion, 64.5 billion, and 68.7 billion HKD from 2025 to 2027 [5] - China Aluminum is a leading enterprise in the aluminum industry, involved in the exploration and production of various resources [5]

然而，高盛同时强调称，13,000美元/吨以上难以长期维持，并维持其2026年四季度11,200美元/吨的 LME铜价谨慎看跌预测不变。 1月11日，中信建投（601066）周君芝、田雨侬发表研报认为，近期铜铝代表的有色，年底走势非常强 劲，定价关键战略资源安全以及美国超预期货币宽松。中信建投认为，有色行情本质是定价全球新旧秩 序更替，所以铜必将接力金银，铜的行情仍未结束，13000美元并非本轮铜价终点，看好2026年铜价赔 率。 当前微软、谷歌、亚马逊以及Facebook母公司Meta正在大举建设的大型AI数据中心的电力传输与AI算 力集群铜缆高速互联系统、散热系统以及高性能网络设备、数据中心存储设备等高度依赖铜。 这种结构性的新增需求正逐步成为铜市场新的需求增长引擎。 在铜价从2025年11月底不足11,000美元/吨一路拉升、并于1月6日触及13,387.50美元/吨的历史高位后， 高盛这家华尔街金融巨头不得不重新校准短期路径：高盛将2026年上半年铜价预测从11,525美元/吨显著 上调至12,750美元/吨，理由是"稀缺溢价"与囤货性质正在被市场重新定价——尤其是美国以外地区(ex- US)库存覆盖 ...

Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are significantly increasing their investments in AI data centers, which heavily rely on copper for power transmission, AI computing clusters, and high-performance networking equipment, creating a new demand engine for the copper market [1] - Goldman Sachs has revised its short-term copper price forecast for the first half of 2026 from $11,525 per ton to $12,750 per ton, citing a "scarcity premium" and market revaluation due to insufficient inventory outside the US [1] - Despite the upward revision, Goldman Sachs maintains a cautious outlook, stating that prices above $13,000 per ton are unlikely to be sustainable in the long term, keeping its fourth-quarter 2026 LME copper price forecast at $11,200 per ton [1] Group 2: Investment Insights and Company Performance - CITIC Securities analysts believe that the copper market is driven by the transition of global order, suggesting that copper will continue to rise, with $13,000 not being the peak, and they are optimistic about the odds for copper prices in 2026 [2] - The copper market is currently experiencing a technical correction after reaching historical highs, but structural demand is expected to provide strong support for prices [2] - Companies in the copper mining sector, such as Luoyang Molybdenum (03993), Zijin Mining (02899), Jiangxi Copper (00358), and Minmetals Resources (01208), are highlighted as key players in the market [2] Group 3: Company Announcements - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) announced that the Qianbixi Southeast mine will complete its repair work by December 2025 and is set to resume production on January 1, 2026, with an expected total copper output of approximately 484,000 tons in 2026 [3] - The company anticipates producing about 134,000 tons of cathode copper and 350,000 tons of crude/anode copper, although production may decline due to planned maintenance at its smelting facilities [3] - The company projects to produce approximately 155,000 tons of copper from its own mines, along with 900,000 tons of sulfuric acid, 100,000 tons of liquid sulfur dioxide, and 600 tons of cobalt hydroxide containing cobalt [3]