2020-2025年中国中厚宽钢带产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 上市企业：宝钢股份（600019）,鞍钢股份（000898）,首钢股份（000959）,华菱钢铁（000932）,太钢不 锈（000825）,马钢股份（600808）,包钢股份（600010）,柳钢股份（601003）,本钢板材（000761）,酒 钢宏兴（600307） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国中厚宽钢带行业市场研究分析及产业需求研判报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国中厚宽钢带产量为1708万吨，同比下降4.8%；2025年1-12月 中国中厚宽钢带累计产量为22268万吨，累计增长4.2%。 ...

上市企业：河钢资源（000923）,海南矿业（601969）,金岭矿业（000655）,大中矿业（001203）,西部矿 业（601168）,鞍钢股份（000898）,太钢不锈（000825）,包钢股份（600010）,本钢板材（000761）,酒 钢宏兴（600307） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国铁矿石行业市场全景评估及发展策略分析报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国铁矿石原矿产量为7935万吨，同比下降4.4%；2025年1-12月 中国铁矿石原矿累计产量为98371.5万吨，累计下降2.8%。 2020-2025年中国铁矿石原矿产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

Group 1: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is 748,700 CNY/ton, an increase of 11.03% month-on-month [3] - The price of dysprosium oxide is 1,330,000 CNY/ton, a decrease of 10.74% month-on-month [3] - The price of terbium oxide is 6,100,000 CNY/ton, a decrease of 4.98% month-on-month [3] - The processing fee for yttrium-rich europium ore has risen to 41,000 CNY/ton, indicating ongoing optimization in the smelting industry [3] - December's rare earth permanent magnet exports decreased by 3% month-on-month but increased by 7% year-on-year, reaching a historical high for the month [3] - The rare earth sector is expected to see valuation and performance improvements, with 2026 being a critical year for resolving industry competition [3] Group 2: Tin - The price of tin ingots is 423,600 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.17% month-on-month [4] - The upward price trend is supported by lower-than-expected supply from Indonesia and Myanmar [4] - The demand side is expected to benefit from AI advancements and the recovery of the semiconductor industry [4] - Recommended stocks include Huaxi Nonferrous Metals and others [4] Group 3: Tungsten - The price of tungsten concentrate is 600,700 CNY/ton, an increase of 19.24% month-on-month [4] - The price of ammonium paratungstate is 890,600 CNY/ton, an increase of 19.49% month-on-month [4] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" in the U.S. may increase tungsten's priority [4] - Recommended stocks include Zhongtung High-tech and others [4] Group 4: Antimony - The price of antimony ingots is 164,100 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.26% month-on-month [5] - The price of antimony concentrate is 141,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.27% month-on-month [5] - December's antimony exports increased by 4% month-on-month but decreased by 71% year-on-year [5] - The global antimony price trend remains upward due to supply shortages and steady demand [5] Group 5: Molybdenum - The price of molybdenum concentrate is 4,010 CNY/ton, remaining stable month-on-month [6] - The price of molybdenum iron is 256,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.79% month-on-month [6] - The ongoing low inventory levels and increased defense spending may further support molybdenum prices [6] - Recommended stocks include Jinduicheng Molybdenum and Guocheng Mining [6]

Investment Ratings - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper and aluminum sectors, with expectations of stable production and demand recovery [2][3][13] Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 3.98% to $13,650.5 per ton on LME, while domestic prices rose by 2.31% to 103,700 CNY per ton. Supply constraints and stable production rates are noted, with a slight decrease in operating rates expected due to seasonal demand fluctuations [2][14] - Aluminum prices rose by 1.75% to $3,229.0 per ton on LME, with domestic prices at 24,600 CNY per ton. The report highlights a seasonal decline in production rates and a high operating rate in alumina plants, despite a slight increase in inventory levels [3][15] - Gold prices surged by 8.58% to $5,410.8 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and market volatility. The report emphasizes the impact of U.S. monetary policy on gold prices [4][16] - The rare earth sector shows a positive trend, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide increasing by 11.30%. The report anticipates a favorable demand outlook due to easing export restrictions [5][34] - Tungsten prices rose by 12.99%, supported by strategic stockpiling initiatives in the U.S. and increasing demand in military applications [5][36] Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 3.98% to $13,650.5 per ton, with domestic prices at 103,700 CNY per ton. Supply constraints are evident, with a decrease in copper processing fees [2][14] - Operating rates for copper cable enterprises increased to 59.46%, indicating stable production driven by prior orders [2][14] Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.75% to $3,229.0 per ton, with domestic prices at 24,600 CNY per ton. The report notes a decrease in operating rates due to seasonal factors [3][15] - The overall aluminum processing rate recorded at 59.4%, reflecting a seasonal decline in demand [3][15] Precious Metals - Gold prices increased significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with COMEX gold price reaching $5,410.8 per ounce. The report discusses the implications of U.S. monetary policy on gold market dynamics [4][16] Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 11.30%, with expectations of increased demand due to favorable export conditions [5][34] - The report highlights the potential for price increases in the rare earth sector driven by supply constraints and demand recovery [5][34] Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased by 12.99%, supported by strategic stockpiling initiatives and military demand [5][36] - The report suggests that the tungsten sector may benefit from ongoing geopolitical tensions and increased defense spending [5][36]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper and aluminum sectors, with expectations of stable production and demand recovery in the near term [2][3][13]. Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 3.98% to $13,650.5 per ton on LME, while domestic prices rose by 2.31% to 103,700 CNY per ton. The overall production stability in the copper industry is noted, with a slight decrease in operating rates expected due to seasonal demand fluctuations [2][14]. - Aluminum prices saw a 1.75% increase to $3,229.0 per ton on LME, with domestic prices at 24,600 CNY per ton. The report highlights a seasonal decline in aluminum processing rates, indicating a shift towards the off-peak season [3][15]. - Gold prices surged by 8.58% to $5,410.8 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and market volatility. The report emphasizes the impact of U.S. monetary policy on gold prices [4][16]. - The rare earth sector shows a positive trend, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide rising by 11.30%. The report anticipates a favorable demand outlook due to easing export restrictions [5][32][34]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 3.98% to $13,650.5 per ton, with domestic prices at 103,700 CNY per ton. Copper inventory decreased by 2.24% week-on-week, while total inventory increased by 4.97% year-on-year [2][14]. - The operating rate for copper cable enterprises rose to 59.46%, indicating stable production driven by prior orders [2][14]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.75% to $3,229.0 per ton, with domestic prices at 24,600 CNY per ton. The overall aluminum processing rate recorded a decline to 59.4% [3][15]. - Domestic aluminum oxide production capacity remains high, but the operating rate decreased by 1.66% to 77.31% [3][15]. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with a notable rise in SPDR gold holdings remaining stable at 1,086.53 tons [4][16]. - The report discusses the implications of U.S. monetary policy on gold price fluctuations, particularly in light of recent geopolitical developments [4][16]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose to 748,700 CNY per ton, reflecting a strong demand outlook. The report notes a 7% year-on-year increase in rare earth permanent magnet exports [5][32][34]. - The report suggests that the rare earth sector is poised for growth, driven by easing export restrictions and increased global demand [5][32][34]. Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased by 12.99%, with strategic reserves being a focus in the U.S. market, indicating a potential for continued price support [5][36]. Tin - Tin prices showed a slight decrease of 0.03%, but the report maintains a positive long-term outlook due to supply constraints from Indonesia and Myanmar [5][37]. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 7.15% to 171,000 CNY per ton, with production slightly declining. The report highlights a robust demand outlook despite recent price fluctuations [5][57]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased by 1.8% to 445,000 CNY per ton, with supply constraints expected to support price stability in the near term [5][58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5]. Core Insights - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, while supply-side constraints are anticipated to continue, leading to a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals. If supply policies are implemented, the contraction in supply may accelerate, facilitating a quicker industry upturn [3][4]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - Steel prices have decreased, with the Shanghai rebar price dropping by 20 CNY/ton to 3240 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.61%. The total inventory of steel has increased by 1.70% to 12.7851 million tons [8][12]. - Apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.0174 million tons, down 0.96% week-on-week but up 28.96% year-on-year [21]. - The production of five major steel products was 8.2317 million tons, an increase of 0.44% week-on-week [12][37]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Approximately 60% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, indicating a market-driven supply clearance is beginning to occur [4]. - The construction sector's demand for steel is expected to stabilize, while demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is projected to grow steadily [4]. Profitability and Production Margins - The average gross profit for rebar was 196.9 CNY/ton, down 11.7 CNY/ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled coil profit increased by 2.3 CNY/ton to 46.9 CNY/ton [39]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel companies was 39.39%, a decrease of 1.3% from the previous week [28]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel and Hualing Steel, as well as low-cost firms like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [4]. - It also highlights the potential of upstream resource companies like Hebei Resources and Erdos, which may benefit from a recovery in demand [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, while supply-side constraints are anticipated to continue, leading to a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [3][5] - The industry has been experiencing prolonged micro-profit conditions, and market-driven supply adjustments have begun to emerge [3][5] - The report highlights that approximately 60% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, indicating ongoing supply-side challenges [5] Summary by Sections Steel - Steel prices have decreased week-on-week, with the Shanghai rebar price dropping by 20 CNY/ton to 3240 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.61% [8] - The apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.0174 million tons, down 0.96% week-on-week but up 28.96% year-on-year [21] - The total inventory of steel reached 12.7851 million tons, increasing by 1.70% week-on-week, maintaining a low level [5][12] - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills rose to 79%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points from the previous week [28] - The average gross profit for rebar was 196.9 CNY/ton, down 11.7 CNY/ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled coil profit increased by 2.3 CNY/ton to 46.9 CNY/ton [39] Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices decreased, with the price for PB powder (61.5% iron content) at 792 CNY/ton, down 9 CNY/ton [46] - The port inventory of iron ore rose to 17.022 million tons, an increase of 1.53% [50] - The total shipment volume of major iron ore producers increased, with Brazil's shipment at 4.852 million tons, up 1.06% week-on-week [51] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel and Hualing Steel, as well as low-cost firms like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [5] - It also highlights the potential of upstream resource companies benefiting from demand recovery trends, recommending Hebei Resources and Erdos among others [5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the small metals sector, with expectations of price increases and performance improvements in the coming months [58]. Core Insights - The small metals index rose by 7.49% during the reporting period, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.03% [12]. - The report highlights significant price movements in various metals, with rare earth elements showing strong price increases, particularly praseodymium and neodymium oxide, which rose by 11.03% to 748,700 CNY/ton [2][13]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-side reforms and the increasing demand for rare earths, particularly in the context of global inventory replenishment needs [15][17]. Summary by Sections Stock Market and Commodity Price Performance - The small metals index closed at 38,048.84 points, reflecting a 7.49% increase, which is 2.11 percentage points lower than the non-ferrous metals index [12]. - Key commodity prices showed varied trends, with praseodymium oxide increasing by 11.03%, dysprosium oxide decreasing by 10.74%, and tungsten concentrate rising by 19.24% [13]. Main Product Fundamentals and Views Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide reached 748,700 CNY/ton, driven by supply-side reforms and increased processing fees [2][15]. - The report suggests that the rare earth sector will continue to see valuation and performance improvements, with 2026 being a critical year for resolving competitive issues within the industry [17]. Tin - Tin ingot prices increased by 2.17% to 423,600 CNY/ton, with expectations of continued upward trends due to supply constraints from Indonesia and Myanmar [3][24]. - The demand for tin is anticipated to benefit from the recovery in semiconductors and automotive electronics [24]. Tungsten - Tungsten concentrate prices rose by 19.24% to 600,700 CNY/ton, supported by increased strategic reserves in the U.S. and domestic demand [3][33]. - The report highlights the potential for sustained price increases due to military and civilian demand [33]. Antimony - Antimony ingot prices increased by 1.26% to 164,100 CNY/ton, with expectations of price recovery driven by export improvements [4][40]. - The report notes a significant drop in antimony exports, indicating potential for future price increases as demand stabilizes [40]. Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices remained stable at 4,010 CNY/ton, with molybdenum iron prices rising by 0.79% to 256,000 CNY/ton [5][43]. - The report suggests that low inventory levels and increased defense spending may support future price increases [43].

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector has experienced a decline of 2.02% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific segments such as special steel down by 2.31% and iron ore down by 4.67% [10][12] - Supply metrics indicate that as of January 30, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sampled steel companies is 85.5%, a slight decrease of 0.04 percentage points week-on-week [27] - Demand for the five major steel products has decreased, with a total consumption of 801.7 million tons, down by 7.78 million tons week-on-week [37] - Social inventory of the five major steel products has increased to 890.7 million tons, up by 22.27 million tons week-on-week, while factory inventory has decreased to 387.8 million tons [45] - The average price index for common steel is 3427.6 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 6.87 yuan/ton [51] - The report suggests that the recent safety incident at Baosteel may lead to temporary production cuts, providing cost and supply support for the industry [3] Supply Summary - As of January 30, the daily average pig iron production is 2.2798 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.12 million tons [27] - The capacity utilization for electric furnaces is reported at 55.7%, down by 2.23 percentage points week-on-week [27] - The total production of the five major steel products reached 722.4 million tons, an increase of 5.17 million tons week-on-week [27] Demand Summary - The consumption of the five major steel products has decreased to 801.7 million tons, a decline of 0.96% week-on-week [37] - The transaction volume for construction steel among mainstream traders is reported at 67,000 tons, down by 13.37% week-on-week [37] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of the five major steel products is at 890.7 million tons, up by 2.56% week-on-week [45] - Factory inventory has decreased to 387.8 million tons, down by 0.22% week-on-week [45] Price & Profit Summary - The common steel price index is at 3427.6 yuan/ton, down by 0.20% week-on-week [51] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is reported at 51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.39% week-on-week [59] - The profit for construction steel produced in electric furnaces is at -80 yuan/ton, down by 26.98% week-on-week [59] Raw Material Prices Summary - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is at 793 yuan/ton, down by 12.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [76] - The price for primary metallurgical coke is reported at 1770 yuan/ton, an increase of 55.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [76]

宏观扰动走弱， 延续震荡格局 钢材周报 2026/01/31 0755-23375155 zhaoh3@wkqh.cn 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 赵航 （联系人） 从业资格号：F03133652 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润和库存 ◆ 需求：本周螺纹钢表观消费量为176.40万吨，环比-4.92%，同比+124.57%。从环比看，临近春节，终端施工活动持续走弱，需求季节性回 落特征较为明显；同比增幅偏大，主要受去年同期低基数影响，实际需求强度仍处于季节性偏弱区间。 热轧卷板方面，本周表观消费量为 311.41 万吨，环比 +0.47%，同比 +14.78%，需求表现相对平稳，制造业端对热卷仍形成一定支撑。 ◆ 库存：本周螺纹钢库存为475.53万吨，较去年同期减少177.60万吨，库存水平仍处于相对低位，但在产量高位、需求回落的背景下，库存 开始加速累积，去库动能明显减弱。 热轧卷板库存为355.58万吨，同比减少约33万吨（-8.50%）。尽管春节时间偏晚、制造业需求恢复节奏 ...