险资入市又有了新进展。 4月29日晚，新华保险公告称，公司拟出资不超过100亿元认购由国丰兴华（北京）私募基金管理有限公司发起 设立的私募基金的份额。该基金成立规模为200亿元，新华保险与中国人寿拟各出资100亿元认购私募基金份 额。 公告显示，该基金投资范围为中证A500指数成份股中符合条件的大型上市公司A+H股。 据了解，该私募基金的名称暂定为国丰兴华鸿鹄志远二期私募证券投资基金（简称"鸿鹄志远二期"），由国丰 兴华发起设立。鸿鹄志远二期存续期限为10年，私募基金贯彻长期投资理念，通过低频交易、长期持有的方式 以获得稳健股息收益。 鸿鹄志远二期的规模为200亿元，新华保险与中国人寿拟各出资100亿元认购私募基金份额。基金投资范围为， 中证A500指数成 份 股中符合条件的大型上市公司A+H股。 据新华保险公告，鸿鹄志远二期的投资标的应当公司治理良好、经营运作稳健、股息相对稳定、股票流动性相 对较好，与保险资金长期投资需求相适应。 新华保险表示，本次投资事项符合国家推动中长期资金入市的相关政策，以及未来本公司整体战略发展方向。 本公司坚持长期投资、价值投资和稳健投资的理念，积极发挥好长期资本、耐心资本、高能 ...

Financial Performance - The company reported a basic earnings per share of -0.1925 yuan for Q1 2025, a decrease of 1.48% compared to -0.1897 yuan in Q1 2024, and a significant decline from -0.1061 yuan in Q1 2023 [1] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was -2.42 billion yuan, slightly worse than -2.39 billion yuan in Q1 2024 and an improvement from -1.33 billion yuan in Q1 2023 [1] - The operating revenue decreased by 14.57% to 4.34 billion yuan in Q1 2025, down from 5.08 billion yuan in Q1 2024 and 6.49 billion yuan in Q1 2023 [1] - The return on equity was -5.82% in Q1 2025, worsening from -4.64% in Q1 2024 and -2.24% in Q1 2023 [1] Shareholder Structure - The top ten unrestricted shareholders collectively hold 59,657.19 million shares, accounting for 47.45% of the circulating shares, with an increase of 590.17 million shares compared to the previous period [1] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. remains the largest shareholder with 37,184.26 million shares, representing 29.58% of the total share capital, unchanged from the previous period [2] - The National Social Security Fund 404 Combination increased its holdings by 73.71 million shares, now holding 1,991.26 million shares, which is 1.58% of the total [2] Dividend Distribution - The company has announced that there will be no distribution or transfer of dividends this time [3]

2025 年 04 月 29 日 与传统风格相关性更低，A 股资产配置 新方向：大成中证全指自由现金流 ETF （159235）投资价值分析 ——指数基金产品研究系列报告之二百四十七 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 方思齐 A0230123090003 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思齐 (8621)23297818× fangsq@swsresearch.com 益 量 化 研 究 权 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共25页 简单金融 成就梦想 股 票 基 金 证券分析师 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 现金流 ETF 已经成为海外市场热门产品，国内产品申报火热。国内自由现金流产品目前 处于起步阶段，而海外现金流产品已经取得了丰硕的发展成果。其中规模领先的 COWZ 规模已超 200 亿美元。近期国内现金流 ETF 迎来集中申报浪潮， ...

| 报告期指标 | 2025年一季报 | 2024年一季报 | 本年比上年增减(%) | 2023年一季报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基本每股收益（元） | 0.1200 | 0.2300 | -47.83 | 0.2600 | | 每股净资产（元） | 10.16 | 9.88 | 2.83 | 4.73 | | 每股公积金(元) | 6.44 | 6.44 | 0 | 1.99 | | 每股未分配利润(元) | 2.35 | 2.15 | 9.3 | 1.50 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | - | - | - | - | | 营业收入(亿元) | 3.31 | 4.69 | -29.42 | 4.68 | | 净利润(亿元) | 0.54 | 1 | -46 | 0.93 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 1.23 | 2.38 | -48.32 | 5.67 | 一、主要会计数据和财务指标 数据四舍五入，查看更多财务数据>> 二、前10名无限售条件股东持股情况 | 持有数量(万股) 名称 | | 占总股本比 | 增减情况 | | --- | --- | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing cautious sentiment following the implementation of tariffs, with investors seeking stable and rewarding assets amidst ongoing volatility [1][5]. Group 1: Market Overview - The ten-year treasury yield has dropped to 1.66%, making traditional savings and investment options less attractive [1]. - The A-share market is currently witnessing a dividend distribution wave, with 86 constituent stocks in the CSI Dividend Index announcing dividend plans totaling over 540 billion yuan [1]. - Major companies like ICBC, CCB, and Shenhua are expected to distribute dividends exceeding 10 billion yuan each, highlighting their status as "cash cows" [1]. Group 2: Performance of Dividend Stocks - The CSI Dividend Index has shown resilience, increasing by 1.6% since March, while the CSI 300 index has declined by nearly 3% [1]. - The index's constituent stocks are primarily from stable sectors such as banking (25.61%), coal (19.35%), and industrials (19.21%), which are characterized by strong performance and cash flow [1]. Group 3: Dividend Yield and ETF Insights - The banking sector, particularly large banks and quality city commercial banks, offers dividend yields exceeding 6%, nearly four times higher than treasury yields [3]. - Leading coal companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal have maintained dividend payout ratios above 50% for five consecutive years, with record-high per-share dividends last year [3]. - The CSI Dividend ETF (SH515080) is highlighted for its high cost-effectiveness, focusing on companies with a consistent three-year dividend history and high dividend yields [3][5]. Group 4: Dividend Distribution Details - The CSI Dividend ETF has a stable dividend distribution pattern, with annual dividend ratios consistently above 4% over the past five years [3][4]. - For instance, a hypothetical investment of 100,000 yuan in early 2024 could yield approximately 4,780 yuan in dividends, providing a supplementary "interest" to the investor's account [3]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - Investing in dividend assets serves as a hedge against market volatility, with a current dividend yield of 6.43% offering a reliable annual return [4]. - The CSI Dividend ETF is recommended for both novice investors seeking simplicity and experienced investors looking to stabilize their portfolios during market fluctuations [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for 2024 but a decline in net profit, with expectations for stable coal prices supporting long-term profitability and cash flow [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 184.145 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.21% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 40.162 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.30%, and net profit of 4.805 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.23% [1]. Coal and Power Business - The company increased its raw coal production to 170 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, and sales volume reached 258 million tons, up 9.13% [3]. - The average cost of raw selected coal was 289.92 yuan per ton, down 2.25% year-on-year, driven by reductions in material costs, maintenance, and taxes [3]. - The company has a total approved capacity of 162 million tons, with an increase in annual capacity at the Yuandatan coal mine from 8 million tons to 10 million tons [3]. - The company controls 8,300 MW of operational thermal power capacity and has 11,320 MW under construction, with expected growth in operational capacity from 10,300 MW in 2025 to 16,300 MW by 2027 [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 21.15 billion yuan and 21.90 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 17% and 20% from previous estimates [4]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 2.18, 2.26, and 2.29 yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -5.4%, +3.6%, and +1.4% [4]. - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of around 60% from 2021 to 2024, with a target price adjustment to 28.36 yuan based on a 13x PE valuation for 2025 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 and Q1 2025 performance, showing stable revenue despite a decline in net profit, primarily due to coal price drops and effective cost management [1][2][3]. Revenue and Profit Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 184.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with a net profit of 22.36 billion yuan, down 3.2% [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 48.71 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% in net profit [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 40.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, with a net profit of 4.80 billion yuan, down 1.2% [2]. Coal Business Performance - The coal business generated revenue of 162.67 billion yuan in 2024, up 3.0% year-on-year, but gross profit fell by 11.0% to 55.75 billion yuan [3]. - Coal production and sales increased, with 2024 raw coal production and sales reaching 170 million tons and 260 million tons, respectively, up 4.1% and 9.1% year-on-year [3]. - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 629 yuan per ton, down 5.6%, while the cost per ton increased by 2.8% to 414 yuan [3]. Power Business Contribution - The company completed the acquisition of Shaanxi Coal Power in December 2024, contributing 16.2 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, a decrease of 7.8% year-on-year [4]. - The power business had a gross profit of 2.3 billion yuan, accounting for 3.8% of total gross profit, with a sales volume of 35.1 billion kWh, up 4.4% year-on-year [4]. Dividend Policy and Forecast - The total profit distribution for 2024 was 13.07 billion yuan, representing 65% of the distributable profit, with a cash dividend ratio of 60% [4]. - The company forecasts net profits of 18.70 billion, 19.67 billion, and 20.82 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.93, 2.03, and 2.15 yuan per share [5].

事件：2025 年4 月25 日，公司发布了2024 年度报告及2025 年一季报。2024年，公司营业收入1841.5 亿 元，同比+1.5%，归母净利润223.6 亿元，同比-3.2%，扣非净利润211.6 亿元，同比-14.3%；2025Q1 公 司营业收入401.6 亿元（同比-7.3%、环比-17.5%），归母净利润48.1 亿元（同比-1.2%、环比-1.8%）， 扣非净利润45.5 亿元（同比-2.0%、环比-5.4%）（同环比数据均为调整后口径）。 高分红回馈股东，股息率高达6.7%。公司2024 年度利润分配预案为，每股派发人民币1.136 元（含 税），叠加中期、三季度已分别派发现金股利每股0.109元（含税）、每股0.103 元（含税），公司2024 年合计每股分红1.348 元（含税），全年分红比例高达58.45%，现金分红总金额占可供分配利润比例达 65%，对应A 股年度股息率为6.74%（按2025 年4 月25 日收盘价计算）。 盈利预测、估值与评级：考虑到2025 年煤炭市场价格较2024 年将有所下滑，我们下调25-26 年归母净 利润预测3.7%、1.4%至202、212 ...

Key Insights - The aluminum industry is experiencing a favorable macroeconomic environment with reduced tariff pressures and positive policy signals from both the US and China [4][10] - The demand for aluminum products is showing structural recovery, driven by new orders leading to increased inventory needs ahead of the May holiday [6][7] - The supply of electrolytic aluminum remains stable, with production costs slightly increasing, while inventory levels are decreasing [5][10] - The prices of key materials such as metal chromium, polymer MDI, and acetamide are on the rise, indicating a potential boom in the chromium salt cycle [18][27] - The chemical industry is expected to enter a replenishment cycle in 2025, driven by low inventory levels and improving profitability among leading companies [22][23] Company Summaries Aluminum Industry - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum is approximately 16,582 RMB/ton, with a slight week-on-week increase [5] - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory has decreased to 658,000 tons, reflecting a 3.1% drop week-on-week [5] - The aluminum processing sector is witnessing a notable increase in inventory depletion rates, with a current inventory of aluminum rods at 177,800 tons [7] Chemical Industry - The chemical sector is seeing a tightening supply of phosphorous ore, with companies like Baitian Co. expanding production capacity significantly [21] - The chemical industry is projected to benefit from a replenishment cycle in 2025, with major companies expected to see improved performance due to cost advantages and market share growth [22][23] - The prices of key chemical products, including metal chromium and polymer MDI, have increased significantly, indicating strong demand and supply constraints [27][28] Data Center Services - Aofei Data reported a 62.18% year-on-year revenue increase in 2024, with Q1 2025 revenue up 40.62% year-on-year [11][12] - The company is expanding its IDC services, with over 43,000 operational cabinets, benefiting from increased capital expenditure in the internet sector [14][16] - The projected revenue for Aofei Data for 2025-2027 is expected to grow significantly, with a "buy" rating assigned based on its market position and growth potential [16]

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3288 | -0.2 | -1.8 | -0.09 | | | | | 8 | | | 深证综指 | 1898 | -0.9 | -6.3 | -0.68 | | 风格指数 | 昨日表现 | 1 个月表现 | 6 个月表 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （％） | （％） | 现（％） | | 大盘指数 | -0.06 | -3.09 | -3.93 | | 中盘指数 | -0.6 | -6.26 | -8.52 | | 小盘指数 | -0.85 | -6.2 | -2.74 | | 行业涨幅 | 昨日涨 | 1 个月涨 | 6 个月涨 | | 普钢Ⅱ | 1.64 | -3.29 | 2.87 | | 游戏Ⅱ | 1.3 | -4.5 | 2.38 | | 城商行Ⅱ | 1.24 | 3.41 | 10.11 | | 白色家电 | 1.07 | -3.32 | -4.88 | | 农商 ...